如果你每天都在忧心忡忡地查看你的账户余额,眼睁睁地看着它们随着全球经济的每一次回转以及美联储(Federal Reserve)的言辞而波动,可以预见的是,岌岌可危的不仅仅是你的退休收入,还有自己如何进行市场操作的日常工作。为了弄清楚职业人士如何应对股市,我们采访了资产管理公司Federated Hermes的资产组合经理乔丹·斯图尔特。
斯图尔特表示,在充满不确定性的时期,投资者通常会首先出售成长型股票,然后才“询问问题”。他认为这种思维方式是错的。斯图尔特说,成长型股票指的是那些有着良好商业态势和加速基本面的股票,如果经济持续恶化,这些股票就会变得更具韧性。他指出,小市值成长型股票要比大市值股票更便宜,而且更有可能成为最先恢复的股票。斯图尔特还表示,相对于大市值科技股,这些股票不太容易受到持续高利率的影响。
斯图尔特称,受美联储以及每周经济数据影响的是大盘,而不是个股。他是Federated的Kaufmann大中小市值成长型股票基金组的成员。3月22日,美联储自2022年初之后第九次调高了利率。美国劳工部(Labor Department)称,企业主在今年3月仅新增了23.6万个就业岗位,同时失业率下降至3.5%。美国有线电视新闻网(CNN)援引路孚特(Refinitiv)的报道称,经济学家曾经预期3月新增岗位净值将达到23.9万个,失业率为3.6%。
美国经济正在放缓,而且美国GDP增速正在下降。尽管就业形势依然良好,但正在逐渐变得“不太好”。“美联储正在扭转颓势,而且也是情理之中的事情,但其速度却是前所未见,以至于让市场对此感到不知所措。”
不要放弃成长型股票
斯图尔特预计,当利率反映经济的负面情绪时,成长型股票,也就是生物科技股,将成为首批走出阴影的股票。他说,生物科技公司专注于科学、病患和拯救人类。斯图尔特指出,这些公司并不在意经济或油价,而且只有在尝试筹资时才会受到利率上升的影响。他表示:“我们认为生物科技毫无周期性可言,而且要对利率敏感得多,如果经济出现波动,利率反映新的环境,那么它将具有先发优势。”
除了生物科技之外,斯图尔特还建议投资者看看医疗技术或产品公司,例如糖尿病或睡眠呼吸暂停领域。他说:“在我们看来,这些市场已经成熟,有长期增长潜力。这两个市场异常庞大,而且在不断增长。”
选择那些手头有现金的企业
斯图尔特认为,不管是生物科技还是医疗,投资者应该把眼光投向那些手头有充足现金、专注于大型潜在市场、拥有相对于竞争对手科技优势的公司。他指出,这类公司能够是那些难以效仿的基因疗法公司、各类细胞制造公司。
尽管生物科技公司依然在很大程度上不会受利率增长的影响,但其他领域却并没有这么幸运。斯图尔特表示,像零售和工业这类对经济走向十分敏感的领域在经济下行时的表现就会变差。
留意过去的赢家
大盘对苹果(Apple)、微软(Microsoft)和谷歌(Google)这三只股票的偏爱也让斯图尔特感到不安。这三家公司每家的市值都达到或超过了1万亿美元(苹果在2022年1月的市值实际上达到了3万亿美元大关)。尽管这个三人组不大可能在近期内消失,但斯图尔特称,这种压倒性的组合让他想起了20年前曾经占据巨大市值份额的另外三家公司——微软、雅虎(Yahoo)和戴尔(Dell)。然而,仅有一家公司维持了其主导地位。
苹果、微软和谷歌的规模是如此之大,以至于这些公司很难实现10%或20%的增幅。斯图尔特表示,他们宁愿考虑达到100亿美元估值而且能够跃升至200亿美元或300亿美元的小型公司。比如,Inspire Medical Systems正在出售一款可以用于治疗睡眠呼吸暂停症的植入式设备。
毫无疑问,这是一个不断增长的市场,对于那些期盼睡个好觉、不堪重负的投资者来说更是如此。(财富中文网)
译者:冯丰
审校:夏林
如果你每天都在忧心忡忡地查看你的账户余额,眼睁睁地看着它们随着全球经济的每一次回转以及美联储(Federal Reserve)的言辞而波动,可以预见的是,岌岌可危的不仅仅是你的退休收入,还有自己如何进行市场操作的日常工作。为了弄清楚职业人士如何应对股市,我们采访了资产管理公司Federated Hermes的资产组合经理乔丹·斯图尔特。
斯图尔特表示,在充满不确定性的时期,投资者通常会首先出售成长型股票,然后才“询问问题”。他认为这种思维方式是错的。斯图尔特说,成长型股票指的是那些有着良好商业态势和加速基本面的股票,如果经济持续恶化,这些股票就会变得更具韧性。他指出,小市值成长型股票要比大市值股票更便宜,而且更有可能成为最先恢复的股票。斯图尔特还表示,相对于大市值科技股,这些股票不太容易受到持续高利率的影响。
斯图尔特称,受美联储以及每周经济数据影响的是大盘,而不是个股。他是Federated的Kaufmann大中小市值成长型股票基金组的成员。3月22日,美联储自2022年初之后第九次调高了利率。美国劳工部(Labor Department)称,企业主在今年3月仅新增了23.6万个就业岗位,同时失业率下降至3.5%。美国有线电视新闻网(CNN)援引路孚特(Refinitiv)的报道称,经济学家曾经预期3月新增岗位净值将达到23.9万个,失业率为3.6%。
美国经济正在放缓,而且美国GDP增速正在下降。尽管就业形势依然良好,但正在逐渐变得“不太好”。“美联储正在扭转颓势,而且也是情理之中的事情,但其速度却是前所未见,以至于让市场对此感到不知所措。”
不要放弃成长型股票
斯图尔特预计,当利率反映经济的负面情绪时,成长型股票,也就是生物科技股,将成为首批走出阴影的股票。他说,生物科技公司专注于科学、病患和拯救人类。斯图尔特指出,这些公司并不在意经济或油价,而且只有在尝试筹资时才会受到利率上升的影响。他表示:“我们认为生物科技毫无周期性可言,而且要对利率敏感得多,如果经济出现波动,利率反映新的环境,那么它将具有先发优势。”
除了生物科技之外,斯图尔特还建议投资者看看医疗技术或产品公司,例如糖尿病或睡眠呼吸暂停领域。他说:“在我们看来,这些市场已经成熟,有长期增长潜力。这两个市场异常庞大,而且在不断增长。”
选择那些手头有现金的企业
斯图尔特认为,不管是生物科技还是医疗,投资者应该把眼光投向那些手头有充足现金、专注于大型潜在市场、拥有相对于竞争对手科技优势的公司。他指出,这类公司能够是那些难以效仿的基因疗法公司、各类细胞制造公司。
尽管生物科技公司依然在很大程度上不会受利率增长的影响,但其他领域却并没有这么幸运。斯图尔特表示,像零售和工业这类对经济走向十分敏感的领域在经济下行时的表现就会变差。
留意过去的赢家
大盘对苹果(Apple)、微软(Microsoft)和谷歌(Google)这三只股票的偏爱也让斯图尔特感到不安。这三家公司每家的市值都达到或超过了1万亿美元(苹果在2022年1月的市值实际上达到了3万亿美元大关)。尽管这个三人组不大可能在近期内消失,但斯图尔特称,这种压倒性的组合让他想起了20年前曾经占据巨大市值份额的另外三家公司——微软、雅虎(Yahoo)和戴尔(Dell)。然而,仅有一家公司维持了其主导地位。
苹果、微软和谷歌的规模是如此之大,以至于这些公司很难实现10%或20%的增幅。斯图尔特表示,他们宁愿考虑达到100亿美元估值而且能够跃升至200亿美元或300亿美元的小型公司。比如,Inspire Medical Systems正在出售一款可以用于治疗睡眠呼吸暂停症的植入式设备。
毫无疑问,这是一个不断增长的市场,对于那些期盼睡个好觉、不堪重负的投资者来说更是如此。(财富中文网)
译者:冯丰
审校:夏林
If you’re sweating it out day after day checking your balances, watching them fluctuate with every gyration of the global economy and utterance from the Fed, imagine this: that it’s not just your retirement savings at stake, it’s your day job to navigate markets. For intel on how a professional is approaching the stock market, we spoke to Jordan Stuart, a client portfolio manager at global asset manager Federated Hermes.
During this period of “macro-induced uncertainty,” investors typically sell growth stocks first and “ask questions later,” said Stuart, who thinks this mentality is wrong. Growth, which refers to stocks with positive business momentum and accelerating fundamentals, will be more resilient if the economy continues to get worse, he said. Small-cap growth stocks are cheaper than large-caps and will likely be the first to recover, Stuart noted. And they are less susceptible to persistent higher rates than large-cap technology stocks, he added.
The nation’s central banks, along with weekly economic data, are driving the broad market rather than the individual stocks themselves, said Stuart, who is part of Federated’s Kaufmann small-, mid-, and large-cap growth equity funds group. On March 22, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the ninth time since the beginning of 2022. U.S. employers added just 236,000 jobs in March, while the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, according to the Labor Department. Economists were expecting a net gain of 239,000 jobs in March and a jobless rate of 3.6%, CNN reported, citing Refinitiv.
The U.S. economy is slowing, while gross domestic product is decelerating, and the employment picture, while still sound, is slowly getting “less good,” Stuart said. “The Fed is playing catch-up as they should, but it’s at the fastest pace ever seen, so that is throwing an unknown into the market.”
Don’t give up on growth stocks
Stuart expects growth stocks, specifically biotech, to be first out of the gate when interest rates reflect the negative sentiment in the economy. Biotechs are focused on science, patients, and saving people, he said. These companies don’t care about the economy or oil prices and are only impacted by rising rates when they’re trying to raise capital, he noted. “We believe that biotech is acyclical enough and much more interest rate sensitive that it will be a first mover advantage if the economy gets rocky and rates reflect the new environment,” Stuart said.
In addition to biotech, Stuart also recommends that investors check out health care technology or product companies, in sectors such as diabetes or sleep apnea. “Those markets are ripe for secular growth in our opinion. Both markets are enormous and growing,” he said.
Choose companies that have cash on hand
Whether it’s biotech or health care, investors should target companies that have ample cash on hand, are focused on a large addressable market, and have a scientific advantage over their competitors, Stuart said. This can be a gene therapy or different cell creation that is tough to replicate, he noted.
While biotechs remain largely independent of rate increases, other sectors are not as lucky. More economically sensitive sectors like retail and industrial typically don’t perform well when there’s a downturn, Stuart said.
Be wary of past winners
The broad market’s concentration in three stocks—Apple, Microsoft, and Google—also makes Stuart uneasy. These companies have each reached, or surpassed, $1 trillion in market capitalization. (Apple actually hit a $3 trillion market cap in January 2022.) While the trio is likely not going away anytime soon, Stuart said the juggernaut reminds him of three companies—Microsoft, Yahoo, and Dell—that were a huge portion of the market 20 years ago. Only one has retained its prominence.
Apple, Microsoft, and Google are so big that it’s rather difficult for them to grow by 10% or 20%. Stuart said he’d rather consider smaller companies that have attained a $10 billion valuation and can jump to $20 billion or $30 billion. For example, Inspire Medical Systems sells an implantable device that is used to treat sleep apnea.
No doubt a growing market—especially for all those stressed-out investors trying to catch a good night’s sleep.