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经济每况愈下,英国民众再也不淡定了

Eleanor Pringle
2023-05-04

英国人以“保持冷静,继续前行”而闻名,但英国央行的首席经济学家休·皮尔却让小企业和公众感到不安。

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图片来源:JAMES MANNING—PA IMAGES/GETTY IMAGES

英国央行(Bank of England)的首席经济学家公开发表评论称,由于通货膨胀,英国工人需要“接受”他们因为通货膨胀而变得更贫穷了,因此,这位首席经济学家被批评与现实脱节。

休·皮尔在哥伦比亚大学法学院(Columbia Law School)的一档名为“超越史无前例”(Beyond Unprecedented)的播客节目中表示,目前英国像在玩“击鼓传花”的游戏,企业提高成本,而员工要求加薪,再加上俄乌冲突和天然气价格上涨等供应方面的压力,从而诱发高通胀。

皮尔说:“当你每个月的能源账单上涨四倍到五倍时,这就会吞噬你的收入。你会怎么做呢?你自然会说:‘我需要加薪。’如果你是一家餐馆的老板,你会怎么做呢?你自然会说:‘我需要提高餐费,以抵偿煤气费上涨。’当然,这个过程最终会弄巧成拙。”

他进一步表示,普通英国人需要削减开支,接受生活质量下降的事实。

皮尔说:“因此,在英国,人们需要接受他们的处境每况愈下,并停止试图通过抬高价格、提高工资或者将能源成本转嫁给消费者的方式来维持他们的实际消费能力。”他补充道,“人们不愿意接受这样的事实:没错,我们所有人的处境每况愈下,我们必须承担自己的那份责任。”

英国国家统计局(Office of National Statistics)的数据显示,截至今年3月,英国目前的同比通胀率为10.1%,扣除能源、食品、酒精和烟草的核心通胀率上升了5.7%。根据政府的数据,3月的私人租房价格同比上涨4.9%,连续第11个月“破纪录上涨”,而用于家庭取暖和烹饪的天然气价格同期上涨了129.4%。

皮尔的言论立即遭到小企业团体和工会领导人的猛烈抨击。英国最大的工会之一GMB工会的研究和政策主管劳伦斯·特纳对《财富》杂志表示,他们“愚蠢而缺乏同情心”,并补充说,英国正在遭受“人们记忆中最严重的生活成本危机”。

英国央行没有立即答复《财富》杂志的置评请求。

坚持下去

小企业团体也对皮尔的言论表示愤怒。

英国小企业联合会(Federation of Small Businesses)的政策主席蒂娜·麦肯齐告诉《财富》杂志,皮尔的言论“与小企业面临的困境脱节”。

麦肯齐解释说:“几个月来,小企业一直承受着高通胀的冲击,它们别无选择,只能将能源和投入成本的大幅上涨反映在它们的定价中——在许多情况下,即使这样也不足以填补缺口。”

她补充道,许多小企业“痛苦地”意识到,它们的客户无法承受成本上涨的冲击,它们正在竭尽所能压低价格。

她说:“小企业的现金储备比大公司少得多,数百万小企业因为逾期付款而蒙受损失,进一步减少了它们的财务回旋余地。英国央行上调基准利率使得许多现有贷款的成本更高,并减少了小企业和初创企业的融资选择。它们中有太多的人只是日复一日地坚持着,无法投资和规划未来。”

严厉的爱吗?

皮尔的言论并不是英国央行第一次对劳动力提出忠告。2022年2月,英国央行的行长安德鲁·贝利在接受英国广播公司广播四台(BBC Radio 4)采访时称,工人应该停止要求加薪。

贝利表示:“我并不是说没有人会加薪,不要误解我的意思,但我认为,我想表达的是,我们确实需要看到人们不再要求加薪。我不想从任何角度美化这一信息。这是痛苦的。但是我们需要看到这样的情况发生,以便更快地解决问题。”

贝利的言论在当时不仅激怒了工会,还招致了英国政府的谴责。首相的发言人说:“我们承认经济发展面临挑战(安德鲁·贝利提出的);但显然,政府无权设定工资,也无权为私营企业的战略方向或者管理提出建议。”

全球顶级经济学家对各国需要为所谓的工资-价格螺旋担忧到什么程度意见不一。工资-价格螺旋是指物价上涨导致工资上涨,而工资上涨又导致消费能力增强,从而推高物价。

德国财政部的部长克里斯蒂安·林德纳在今年4月初指出,工资-价格螺旋式上升的威胁“真实存在”。

但美国财政部的部长珍妮特·耶伦在今年早些时候说,她没有看到这种趋势的任何迹象。今年3月,欧洲央行(European Central Bank)表示,工资“在过去两年里对通胀的影响有限,利润的增长明显比工资的增长更强劲”。(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

英国央行(Bank of England)的首席经济学家公开发表评论称,由于通货膨胀,英国工人需要“接受”他们因为通货膨胀而变得更贫穷了,因此,这位首席经济学家被批评与现实脱节。

休·皮尔在哥伦比亚大学法学院(Columbia Law School)的一档名为“超越史无前例”(Beyond Unprecedented)的播客节目中表示,目前英国像在玩“击鼓传花”的游戏,企业提高成本,而员工要求加薪,再加上俄乌冲突和天然气价格上涨等供应方面的压力,从而诱发高通胀。

皮尔说:“当你每个月的能源账单上涨四倍到五倍时,这就会吞噬你的收入。你会怎么做呢?你自然会说:‘我需要加薪。’如果你是一家餐馆的老板,你会怎么做呢?你自然会说:‘我需要提高餐费,以抵偿煤气费上涨。’当然,这个过程最终会弄巧成拙。”

他进一步表示,普通英国人需要削减开支,接受生活质量下降的事实。

皮尔说:“因此,在英国,人们需要接受他们的处境每况愈下,并停止试图通过抬高价格、提高工资或者将能源成本转嫁给消费者的方式来维持他们的实际消费能力。”他补充道,“人们不愿意接受这样的事实:没错,我们所有人的处境每况愈下,我们必须承担自己的那份责任。”

英国国家统计局(Office of National Statistics)的数据显示,截至今年3月,英国目前的同比通胀率为10.1%,扣除能源、食品、酒精和烟草的核心通胀率上升了5.7%。根据政府的数据,3月的私人租房价格同比上涨4.9%,连续第11个月“破纪录上涨”,而用于家庭取暖和烹饪的天然气价格同期上涨了129.4%。

皮尔的言论立即遭到小企业团体和工会领导人的猛烈抨击。英国最大的工会之一GMB工会的研究和政策主管劳伦斯·特纳对《财富》杂志表示,他们“愚蠢而缺乏同情心”,并补充说,英国正在遭受“人们记忆中最严重的生活成本危机”。

英国央行没有立即答复《财富》杂志的置评请求。

坚持下去

小企业团体也对皮尔的言论表示愤怒。

英国小企业联合会(Federation of Small Businesses)的政策主席蒂娜·麦肯齐告诉《财富》杂志,皮尔的言论“与小企业面临的困境脱节”。

麦肯齐解释说:“几个月来,小企业一直承受着高通胀的冲击,它们别无选择,只能将能源和投入成本的大幅上涨反映在它们的定价中——在许多情况下,即使这样也不足以填补缺口。”

她补充道,许多小企业“痛苦地”意识到,它们的客户无法承受成本上涨的冲击,它们正在竭尽所能压低价格。

她说:“小企业的现金储备比大公司少得多,数百万小企业因为逾期付款而蒙受损失,进一步减少了它们的财务回旋余地。英国央行上调基准利率使得许多现有贷款的成本更高,并减少了小企业和初创企业的融资选择。它们中有太多的人只是日复一日地坚持着,无法投资和规划未来。”

严厉的爱吗?

皮尔的言论并不是英国央行第一次对劳动力提出忠告。2022年2月,英国央行的行长安德鲁·贝利在接受英国广播公司广播四台(BBC Radio 4)采访时称,工人应该停止要求加薪。

贝利表示:“我并不是说没有人会加薪,不要误解我的意思,但我认为,我想表达的是,我们确实需要看到人们不再要求加薪。我不想从任何角度美化这一信息。这是痛苦的。但是我们需要看到这样的情况发生,以便更快地解决问题。”

贝利的言论在当时不仅激怒了工会,还招致了英国政府的谴责。首相的发言人说:“我们承认经济发展面临挑战(安德鲁·贝利提出的);但显然,政府无权设定工资,也无权为私营企业的战略方向或者管理提出建议。”

全球顶级经济学家对各国需要为所谓的工资-价格螺旋担忧到什么程度意见不一。工资-价格螺旋是指物价上涨导致工资上涨,而工资上涨又导致消费能力增强,从而推高物价。

德国财政部的部长克里斯蒂安·林德纳在今年4月初指出,工资-价格螺旋式上升的威胁“真实存在”。

但美国财政部的部长珍妮特·耶伦在今年早些时候说,她没有看到这种趋势的任何迹象。今年3月,欧洲央行(European Central Bank)表示,工资“在过去两年里对通胀的影响有限,利润的增长明显比工资的增长更强劲”。(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

Bank of England’s chief economist has been blasted as out of touch with reality following public comments he made saying British workers need to “accept” they are poorer because of inflation.

Speaking on Columbia Law School’s “Beyond Unprecedented“ podcast, Huw Pill said high inflation was because of “pass the parcel” behavior between businesses upping their costs, and employees asking for raises, along with supply-side pressures like the war in Ukraine and gas price hikes.

“When your energy bill you get every month goes up four or five times, that’s eating into your income,” Pill said. “What’s the natural thing to do? Well the natural thing to do is say: ‘I need to be paid more.’ What’s the natural thing to do if you’re a restaurant? The natural thing to do is say: ‘I need to raise the prices of my meals in order to compensate the fact my gas bill is higher. But then of course that process is ultimately self-defeating.”

He went on to imply that average Britains needed to cut back on spending, collectively accept a lower quality of life.

“So somehow in the U.K. someone needs to accept that they’re worse off and stop trying to maintain their real spending power by bidding up prices, higher wages or passing the energy costs through to customers,” Pill said. He added there is a “reluctance to accept that yes we’re all worse off and we have to take our share.”

The U.K. is currently suffering a year-over-year inflation rate of 10.1% as of March, and core inflation excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco was up 5.7%, according to the Office of National Statistics. Private rental prices in March increased 4.9% year over year, the 11th consecutive month of “record-breaking growth,” according to the government, and gas, which is used in homes for heating and cooking was up 129.4% over the same time period.

Pill’s comments were immediately slammed by small business groups and union leaders. Laurence Turner, the head of research and policy at GMB, one of the largest unions in the U.K., told Fortune they were “crass” adding that the country was suffering from “the worst cost of living crisis in living memory.”

The Bank of England did not immediately respond to Fortune’s request for comment.

Hanging on

Small business groups also voiced their fury with Pill’s outlook.

Tina McKenzie, Policy Chair for the Federation of Small Businesses told Fortune that Pill’s comments “are out of touch with what small firms are up against.”

“Small businesses have been bearing the brunt of high inflation for many months now, with no choice left but to reflect the huge increases they have seen for energy and input costs in their pricing—and in many cases even that is not enough to fill the gap,” McKenzie explained.

She added that droves of small businesses are “painfully” aware their customers can’t bear the brunt of the cost hikes, saying they’re doing all they can to keep prices down.

“Small firms have far less by way of cash reserves than large corporates, and millions of them are hit in the pocket by late payment, further reducing their financial headroom,” she said. “The Bank of England’s base rate hikes have made many existing loans more expensive, and have reduced the funding options available to small firms and start-ups. Far too many of them are only just hanging on day by day, unable to invest and plan for the future.”

Tough love?

Pill’s comments are not the first time the British workforce has been given blunt advice from their central bank. In February 2022, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey told BBC Radio 4 that workers should stop demanding pay rises.

“I’m not saying nobody gets a pay rise, don’t get me wrong, but I think, what I’m saying is, we do need to see restraint in pay bargaining,” Bailey said. “That is painful. I don’t want to in any sense sugar that message. It is painful. But we need to see that in order to get through this problem more quickly.”

Bailey’s comments not only incensed unions at the time but earned a rebuke from Number 10 Downing Street. The prime minister’s spokesman said: “We recognise the challenge of the economic picture which Andrew Bailey set out; but obviously it’s not up for government to set wages or advise on the strategic direction or management of private companies.”

Opinion among the globe’s top economists is divided on how worried nations need to be about the so-called wage-price spiral— a the phenomenon of higher prices leading to higher wages, which in turn drives higher prices because of increased spending power.

Germany’s finance minister, Christian Lindner, said earlier April that threat of a spiral is “very real.”

But U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said earlier this year that she hadn’t seen any indications of the trend. And in March, the European Central Bank said wages “had only a limited influence on inflation over the past two years and that the increase in profits had been significantly more dynamic than that in wages.”

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