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美国会为债务危机买单吗?历史揭晓答案

Robert Hormats
2023-05-23

从更好的角度来看,明智的做法是回顾美国历史,特别是与宪法有关的历史,反思为什么履行债务义务如此重要。

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独立战争后,美国政治家亚历山大·汉密尔顿认为新政府应该承担所有的州债务,以证明新成立的美国在履行义务方面确实团结一致。图片来源:CHIP SOMODEVILLA - GETTY IMAGES

美国总统乔·拜登和美国国会的领导人最近就解决债务上限僵局举行的会谈似乎取得了一些进展,但仍然有很长的路要走,而且双方均有高层政治人物反对做出任何妥协。如果有足够多的国会议员继续阻挠达成协议,或者干脆不断往后拖,将不确定性延长,就会把美国拖入历史上首次债务违约的险境。

在这个国家的整个历史中,保持对其债务的信心一直是高优先级议题,也得到了大量公众和政治支持。即使在讨论解决方案时在某些方面产生了重大分歧,理性的政治领导人也会做出妥协,以保持人们对美国将履行其财政义务的信心。在我2007年出版的《自由的代价:为美国的战争买单》(The Price of Liberty: Paying for America’s Wars)一书里,我描述了哪怕是在政治分裂时期,美国是如何始终忠实地履行其财政承诺的,这往往是通过做出历史性的妥协。

目前,关于是否偿还现有联邦债务的辩论仍然在以党争色彩浓厚的方式进行,一些人对违约自鸣得意,而另一些人则对长期对抗的前景津津乐道。我们有理由对这两种态度可能带来的毁灭性影响感到担忧。

从更好的角度来看,明智的做法是回顾美国历史,特别是与宪法有关的历史,反思为什么履行债务义务如此重要。那些反对通过达成妥协履行政府义务的人不明白,如果无法履行国家义务,对美国政府的信任就会出现前所未有的崩溃,还将对金融、外交政策和国家安全产生十分深远的影响。

历史上也曾经有过国家在是否还债的问题上存在分歧的时期。第一个时期是,独立战争之后,现任政府在现行宪法下需要为哪些债务负责。

在失败的《邦联条例》(Articles of Confederation,1781—1787年)下运行的美国前任政府积累了巨额债务。然而,美国领导人最终达成一致,上届政府欠下的债务应该偿还。为了强调这一承诺的可信性,并提升人们对新政府的信任,他们决定,只有把这项义务写入宪法才足够有力。

制宪者在第6条中加入了一项条款,称“在本宪法通过之前签订的所有债务,在本宪法下对美国的效力与在联邦下的效力一样。”这一举措加强了美国内外对新政府财政承诺的信任,也被视为保障人们对新政府将发行的债券确立信心的关键。

然而,这一时期与债务有关的主要问题远不止于此。当时争论的焦点是,新成立的国家是否应该承担殖民地为了打仗征募军队而欠下的债。

美国政治家亚历山大·汉密尔顿认为应该。他说,这将向世界表明,新成立的美国在履行义务方面确实是“团结一致”的。如果其中几个州继续违约,这个国家就将无法获得战后发展所需要的大量外国资本。许多南方州,包括其中最强大的弗吉尼亚州,已经偿还了债务。他们反对新的联邦政府偿还北方几个州尚未偿还的债务。

汉密尔顿认为,如果在这个问题上仍然存在分歧,一些州违约,那么这个国家的整体信用就将受到损害。它在其他问题上的可靠性也会大打折扣。这将损害美国在欧洲的声誉,而欧洲还不确定是否能够认真对待大西洋彼岸这个新生的边远国家,也不确定是否可以给予它所寻求的尊重。

最后,双方达成了妥协。联邦政府将承担所有的州债务。作为交换条件,北方各州同意将当时暂时设在纽约的新首都重新设在南方的一块土地上,这块土地包括弗吉尼亚州和马里兰州的一小部分地区——现在被称为华盛顿特区。

这一妥协为大量外国资本在接下来的几十年里在美国投资修建铁路、运河、银行和工厂开辟了道路,为这个新国家的经济奠定了基础。

下一次重大债务危机发生在南北战争之后。

联邦向本国公民和国外借了大笔钱来打这场仗。无论是在美国国内还是国外,人们都怀疑它到底能不能或者打不打算偿还债务。当时仅利息支出就相当于战前整个国家预算的两倍。

美国领导人认识到,如果美国违约,美国经济的未来就会受到严重冲击,其政治信誉也将受到严重损害。他们理解了为什么汉密尔顿在几十年前就警告不要违约,也认识到国家从全额偿还独立战争债务中获得的巨大经济利益。他们还明白,为了让美国内战后的承诺依旧可信,尤其是面对那些反对偿还债务的人的压力,它的承诺必须被赋予最高水平的可信度——解决方式是,再次被纳入宪法。

相关表述被涵括在所有修正案中最重要的第14修正案中。具体来说:“法律授权的美国公共债务的有效性,包括因为镇压反叛或叛乱(即内战)而支付的养老金和奖金所产生的债务,不得被质疑。”

同样,目标不仅是展示美国的财政信誉,亦是借此展示强大的国家团结,从而增强国际社会对美国的尊重。在制订修正案的过程里,这一新的表述得到了国会两院三分之二的支持,四分之三的州正式签署,围绕这一共同承诺,加强了全国上下的团结,哪怕仅仅几年前,这个国家由于内战几乎分裂。

今天那些忽视违约后果的国会议员和美国公众们,一些人将违约视为有用的威胁,以求得在华盛顿推动其他问题取得进展,一些人则用于吹嘘自己意识形态的强硬,他们应该吸取历史的教训。虽然遏制国家债务的未来增长(债务增长过快,必须定期加以限制)很重要,但将威胁违约作为手段,用的是一种不负责任的工具,根本无法实现这些本应负责任的目标。

如果美国政府不遵守诺言、不偿还债务,等它尝试借入继续运作所需的巨额资金时,就会发现自己面临的是国外的极度不信任。那时它将推高利率,给当前的美国纳税人带来更沉重的负担——对未来的几代人来说,负担甚至还要重。

两个多世纪以来,美国一直将这一原则作为其健全治理和宪政的核心,而如今却在这个原则上出现了如此严重的分歧,我们将被视为一个不那么可靠的盟友,信誉将在全世界严重受损。如果美国在偿还债务方面不履行诺言,其他国家就会质疑美国还能够在哪件事情上遵守诺言。华盛顿建立以对美国的信任为基础的强大联盟和友谊的诸多努力将遭受重大挫折。

鲁莽地违背历史悠久的金融原则将给这个国家带来双重打击:对其经济和全球领导地位。这可能需要许多年的时间才可以恢复。(财富中文网)

罗伯特·霍马茨(Robert Hormats)是负责经济、增长、能源和环境事务的前副国务卿,也是《自由的代价:为美国的战争买单》(The Price of Liberty: Paying for America’s Wars)一书的作者。

Fortune.com上发表的评论文章中表达的观点,仅代表作者本人的观点,不代表《财富》杂志的观点和立场。

译者:Agatha

美国总统乔·拜登和美国国会的领导人最近就解决债务上限僵局举行的会谈似乎取得了一些进展,但仍然有很长的路要走,而且双方均有高层政治人物反对做出任何妥协。如果有足够多的国会议员继续阻挠达成协议,或者干脆不断往后拖,将不确定性延长,就会把美国拖入历史上首次债务违约的险境。

在这个国家的整个历史中,保持对其债务的信心一直是高优先级议题,也得到了大量公众和政治支持。即使在讨论解决方案时在某些方面产生了重大分歧,理性的政治领导人也会做出妥协,以保持人们对美国将履行其财政义务的信心。在我2007年出版的《自由的代价:为美国的战争买单》(The Price of Liberty: Paying for America’s Wars)一书里,我描述了哪怕是在政治分裂时期,美国是如何始终忠实地履行其财政承诺的,这往往是通过做出历史性的妥协。

目前,关于是否偿还现有联邦债务的辩论仍然在以党争色彩浓厚的方式进行,一些人对违约自鸣得意,而另一些人则对长期对抗的前景津津乐道。我们有理由对这两种态度可能带来的毁灭性影响感到担忧。

从更好的角度来看,明智的做法是回顾美国历史,特别是与宪法有关的历史,反思为什么履行债务义务如此重要。那些反对通过达成妥协履行政府义务的人不明白,如果无法履行国家义务,对美国政府的信任就会出现前所未有的崩溃,还将对金融、外交政策和国家安全产生十分深远的影响。

历史上也曾经有过国家在是否还债的问题上存在分歧的时期。第一个时期是,独立战争之后,现任政府在现行宪法下需要为哪些债务负责。

在失败的《邦联条例》(Articles of Confederation,1781—1787年)下运行的美国前任政府积累了巨额债务。然而,美国领导人最终达成一致,上届政府欠下的债务应该偿还。为了强调这一承诺的可信性,并提升人们对新政府的信任,他们决定,只有把这项义务写入宪法才足够有力。

制宪者在第6条中加入了一项条款,称“在本宪法通过之前签订的所有债务,在本宪法下对美国的效力与在联邦下的效力一样。”这一举措加强了美国内外对新政府财政承诺的信任,也被视为保障人们对新政府将发行的债券确立信心的关键。

然而,这一时期与债务有关的主要问题远不止于此。当时争论的焦点是,新成立的国家是否应该承担殖民地为了打仗征募军队而欠下的债。

美国政治家亚历山大·汉密尔顿认为应该。他说,这将向世界表明,新成立的美国在履行义务方面确实是“团结一致”的。如果其中几个州继续违约,这个国家就将无法获得战后发展所需要的大量外国资本。许多南方州,包括其中最强大的弗吉尼亚州,已经偿还了债务。他们反对新的联邦政府偿还北方几个州尚未偿还的债务。

汉密尔顿认为,如果在这个问题上仍然存在分歧,一些州违约,那么这个国家的整体信用就将受到损害。它在其他问题上的可靠性也会大打折扣。这将损害美国在欧洲的声誉,而欧洲还不确定是否能够认真对待大西洋彼岸这个新生的边远国家,也不确定是否可以给予它所寻求的尊重。

最后,双方达成了妥协。联邦政府将承担所有的州债务。作为交换条件,北方各州同意将当时暂时设在纽约的新首都重新设在南方的一块土地上,这块土地包括弗吉尼亚州和马里兰州的一小部分地区——现在被称为华盛顿特区。

这一妥协为大量外国资本在接下来的几十年里在美国投资修建铁路、运河、银行和工厂开辟了道路,为这个新国家的经济奠定了基础。

下一次重大债务危机发生在南北战争之后。

联邦向本国公民和国外借了大笔钱来打这场仗。无论是在美国国内还是国外,人们都怀疑它到底能不能或者打不打算偿还债务。当时仅利息支出就相当于战前整个国家预算的两倍。

美国领导人认识到,如果美国违约,美国经济的未来就会受到严重冲击,其政治信誉也将受到严重损害。他们理解了为什么汉密尔顿在几十年前就警告不要违约,也认识到国家从全额偿还独立战争债务中获得的巨大经济利益。他们还明白,为了让美国内战后的承诺依旧可信,尤其是面对那些反对偿还债务的人的压力,它的承诺必须被赋予最高水平的可信度——解决方式是,再次被纳入宪法。

相关表述被涵括在所有修正案中最重要的第14修正案中。具体来说:“法律授权的美国公共债务的有效性,包括因为镇压反叛或叛乱(即内战)而支付的养老金和奖金所产生的债务,不得被质疑。”

同样,目标不仅是展示美国的财政信誉,亦是借此展示强大的国家团结,从而增强国际社会对美国的尊重。在制订修正案的过程里,这一新的表述得到了国会两院三分之二的支持,四分之三的州正式签署,围绕这一共同承诺,加强了全国上下的团结,哪怕仅仅几年前,这个国家由于内战几乎分裂。

今天那些忽视违约后果的国会议员和美国公众们,一些人将违约视为有用的威胁,以求得在华盛顿推动其他问题取得进展,一些人则用于吹嘘自己意识形态的强硬,他们应该吸取历史的教训。虽然遏制国家债务的未来增长(债务增长过快,必须定期加以限制)很重要,但将威胁违约作为手段,用的是一种不负责任的工具,根本无法实现这些本应负责任的目标。

如果美国政府不遵守诺言、不偿还债务,等它尝试借入继续运作所需的巨额资金时,就会发现自己面临的是国外的极度不信任。那时它将推高利率,给当前的美国纳税人带来更沉重的负担——对未来的几代人来说,负担甚至还要重。

两个多世纪以来,美国一直将这一原则作为其健全治理和宪政的核心,而如今却在这个原则上出现了如此严重的分歧,我们将被视为一个不那么可靠的盟友,信誉将在全世界严重受损。如果美国在偿还债务方面不履行诺言,其他国家就会质疑美国还能够在哪件事情上遵守诺言。华盛顿建立以对美国的信任为基础的强大联盟和友谊的诸多努力将遭受重大挫折。

鲁莽地违背历史悠久的金融原则将给这个国家带来双重打击:对其经济和全球领导地位。这可能需要许多年的时间才可以恢复。(财富中文网)

罗伯特·霍马茨(Robert Hormats)是负责经济、增长、能源和环境事务的前副国务卿,也是《自由的代价:为美国的战争买单》(The Price of Liberty: Paying for America’s Wars)一书的作者。

Fortune.com上发表的评论文章中表达的观点,仅代表作者本人的观点,不代表《财富》杂志的观点和立场。

译者:Agatha

Recent meetings between President Joe Biden and Congressional leaders on resolving the debt ceiling impasse appear to have made some progress, but there is still a long way to go and there are still high-level political figures on both sides who oppose any compromise. If enough members of Congress continue to block an agreement or simply kick the can down the road, prolonging the uncertainty, they will be bringing America dangerously close to defaulting on its debt for the first time in our country’s history.

For this country’s entire history, maintaining confidence in its debt has been a major priority, and achieved substantial public and political support. Even when major differences on certain facets of a solution arose, rational political leaders worked out compromises to preserve confidence that America would meet its financial obligations. In my 2007 book, The Price of Liberty: Paying for America’s Wars, I described how, despite periods of political division, the U.S. has always faithfully met its financial commitments, often by making historic compromises.

As the current debate over whether to honor the existing federal debt continues in a deeply partisan fashion, some view default with complacency, while others relish the prospect of a prolonged confrontation. There is reason to become alarmed about the catastrophic implications of both approaches.

To put this in better perspective, it would be wise to look back at our country’s history, especially as it relates to the Constitution, to reflect on why honoring our debt has been so crucial. Those who oppose a compromise that fulfills the government’s obligation don’t understand the unprecedented collapse in trust in our government that would result if we fail to meet our national obligations, as well as its far-reaching consequences for finance, foreign policy, and national security.

There were earlier periods in history when the country was divided on whether to pay our debts. The first was over which debts the new government under the current constitution would be responsible for after the Revolution.

Large debts had been accumulated by the nation’s predecessor government, operating under the failed Articles of Confederation (1781 to 1787). Yet America’s leaders ultimately agreed that debts incurred by that previous government should be repaid. To underscore the credibility of this commitment–and promote trust in the new government–they decided that nothing short of including that obligation in the Constitution would be sufficient.

The Framers included a provision in Article 6 asserting that “all debts contracted…before the adoption of this Constitution, shall be as valid against the United States under this Constitution, as under the Confederation.” This reinforced foreign and domestic trust in the new government’s financial commitments. It was seen as critical to ensure confidence in the debt that government would issue.

The main debt-related issue of the period, however, went beyond this. It centered on whether the newly established nation should assume the debts that the colonies had incurred in raising troops to fight the war.

Hamilton made the case that it should. He argued that this would demonstrate to the world that the newly established United States was indeed “united” in meeting its obligations. If several states remained in default, the country would be unable to obtain the large amounts of foreign capital it needed to grow after the war. Many southern states, including the most powerful of these, Virginia, had already repaid their debts. They objected to the new federal government repaying the debt of several northern states that had not yet paid theirs.

If the country remained divided on this issue, Hamilton argued, and some states defaulted, its overall credit would be impaired. And its reliability regarding other issues also would be badly damaged. It would damage America’s reputation in a Europe that was still not sure it could take the newly born frontier nation on the other side of the Atlantic seriously–or grant it the respect that it sought.

In the end, a compromise was reached. The federal government would assume all state debts. In return, the northern states would agree that the new capital, then temporarily housed in New York, would be re-established in the South–on a parcel of land including small parts of Virginia and Maryland–now known as Washington D.C.

This compromise opened the way for the investment of large sums of foreign capital in America over the next several decades to build the railways, canals, banks, and factories that formed the economic bedrock of the new nation.

The next major debt crisis occurred after the Civil War.

The Union had borrowed enormous amounts from its own citizens and abroad to fight the war. There were widespread doubts in this country and abroad as to whether it could, or would, repay. The Union’s interest payments alone were twice the size of the entire national budget before the war.

America’s leaders recognized the severe impact on the country’s economic future if the U.S. defaulted–and the grave damage its political credibility would suffer. They understood why Hamilton had cautioned against default decades earlier–and recognized the enormous economic benefits the country had derived from fully paying the nation’s Revolutionary War debt. They also understood that for America’s post-Civil War commitment to be credible, especially in the face of pressures from those who opposed repaying or servicing the debt, its promise had to be given the highest level of credibility–by being, once again, included in the Constitution.

The relevant language was included in the most important amendment of all–the 14th Amendment. Specifically: “The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized in law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bonuses for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion (i.e., the Civil War) shall not be questioned.”

Again, the goal was not only to demonstrate the financial credibility of the nation but also to demonstrate strong national unity in doing so–and thus bolster international respect for the country. The new language, under the amendment process, had the support of two-thirds of both houses of Congress, and three-fourths of the states had ratified it, which reinforced the unity of the country around a shared commitment, despite the near split up of the nation as the result of the Civil War only a few years earlier.

Those members of Congress and the American public today who ignore the consequences of default because they see it as a useful threat to get their way in Washington on other issues or tout the toughness of their ideologies should draw on these lessons of history. While curbing future increases in the nation’s debt–which has grown rapidly and must be restrained periodically–is important, threatening default as a source of leverage uses an irresponsible tool for advancing these otherwise responsible goals.

An America that fails to keep its word and pay its debts as it attempts to borrow the formidable amounts of money the government will need to continue to operate will find itself the target of deep distrust abroad. It would push interest rates up and impose a heavier burden on current American taxpayers–and an even greater one on future generations.

A country so bitterly divided over a principle that has been at the very core of its sound governance and constitution for over two centuries will be seen as a far less reliable ally–and its credibility will be badly damaged throughout the world. If we do not keep our word when it comes to paying our debt, other countries will question whether we can keep our word on anything at all. Washington’s efforts to build strong alliances and friendships anchored by trust in America would be dealt a major setback.

A reckless departure from our time-honored financial principles will deal this country a double blow: to its economy and global leadership. And it could take years to recover from that.

Robert Hormats is a former Under Secretary of State for Economic, Growth, Energy, and the Environment, and the author of The Price of Liberty: Paying for America’s Wars.

The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.

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