喜达屋资本(Starwood Capital)首席执行官巴里·斯特恩利奇特毫不留情地批评美联储:他曾在多个场合对美国消费者新闻与商业频道(CNBC)的主持人表示,美联储激进加息可能很快引发严重经济衰退。
不难看出斯特恩利奇特为何会如此公开地批评美联储:喜达屋资本主要投资于房地产,而美联储加息已经在房地产领域造成了巨大的经济痛苦。
上周,彭博社报道称,喜达屋资本的房地产投资信托基金(Starwood Real Estate Income Trust)计划出售超过2000套单户型租赁住宅。喜达屋资本拒绝了《财富》杂志的采访请求,而且没有公开解释撤出住宅市场的动机。喜达屋资本的房地产投资信托基金在住宅市场拥有超过3200套单户住宅。很明显,这意味着喜达屋资本面临赎回请求上升,并正在经受商业房地产行业的痛苦,因此,决定出售2000套住宅。
乍一看,人们可能会认为华尔街的投资者会从商业地产领域撤出(写字楼价值出现快速下降),转而涌入住宅市场——在经历了去年秋季的房价温和修正后,全美房价正在回升。
然而,机构公司在住宅领域也谨小慎微。根据约翰·伯恩斯研究和咨询公司(John Burns Research and Consulting)进行的一项分析,拥有1000套以上住宅的机构投资者在1月和2月购买的房屋数量比2022年前两个月减少了90%。
为什么机构投资者如此迅速地从美国房地产市场撤出?
归根结底,考虑到利率、房价和租金等因素,现在每增加一套住宅的经济回报并不是那么高。更不用说,Yieldstreet等一些大型投资者认为,尽管今年春季房价略有上涨,但全美房价仍有可能再次下跌。
Yieldstreet拥有700多套单户住宅,其单户住宅主管泰哈斯•乔希最近对《财富》杂志表示:“我们几乎暂停了所有(购房)策略。我认为房价还没有触底……平均而言,全美房价还会下跌5%,而且会因市场而异。从峰值到谷底,我们预计全美会出现12%至15%的跌幅。”
机构投资者不仅减少房屋购买量,有些投资者还在减少他们的整体单户住宅投资组合。
不妨看看美国最大的单户住宅租赁公司Invitation Homes的情况,该公司最近成为了净卖家。在2023年第一季度,Invitation Homes购买了194套房屋,却出售了297套。
一年前,也就是2022年第一季度, Invitation homes购买了822套单户住宅,仅出售了147套。黑石集团于2019年出售其股份之前,帮助Invitation homes发展壮大。
并不是只有Invitation Homes这样做,American Homes 4 Rent也是第一季度的净卖家。
2023年第一季度,American Homes 4 Rent出售的单户住宅量(666套)超过购买量(312套)。净下降使这家总部位于拉斯维加斯的公司的投资组合从全国58993套出租房屋缩减至58639套。
一年前,也就是2022年第一季度,American Homes 4 Rent购买了1131套房屋,仅出售了171套。(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
喜达屋资本(Starwood Capital)首席执行官巴里·斯特恩利奇特毫不留情地批评美联储:他曾在多个场合对美国消费者新闻与商业频道(CNBC)的主持人表示,美联储激进加息可能很快引发严重经济衰退。
不难看出斯特恩利奇特为何会如此公开地批评美联储:喜达屋资本主要投资于房地产,而美联储加息已经在房地产领域造成了巨大的经济痛苦。
上周,彭博社报道称,喜达屋资本的房地产投资信托基金(Starwood Real Estate Income Trust)计划出售超过2000套单户型租赁住宅。喜达屋资本拒绝了《财富》杂志的采访请求,而且没有公开解释撤出住宅市场的动机。喜达屋资本的房地产投资信托基金在住宅市场拥有超过3200套单户住宅。很明显,这意味着喜达屋资本面临赎回请求上升,并正在经受商业房地产行业的痛苦,因此,决定出售2000套住宅。
乍一看,人们可能会认为华尔街的投资者会从商业地产领域撤出(写字楼价值出现快速下降),转而涌入住宅市场——在经历了去年秋季的房价温和修正后,全美房价正在回升。
然而,机构公司在住宅领域也谨小慎微。根据约翰·伯恩斯研究和咨询公司(John Burns Research and Consulting)进行的一项分析,拥有1000套以上住宅的机构投资者在1月和2月购买的房屋数量比2022年前两个月减少了90%。
为什么机构投资者如此迅速地从美国房地产市场撤出?
归根结底,考虑到利率、房价和租金等因素,现在每增加一套住宅的经济回报并不是那么高。更不用说,Yieldstreet等一些大型投资者认为,尽管今年春季房价略有上涨,但全美房价仍有可能再次下跌。
Yieldstreet拥有700多套单户住宅,其单户住宅主管泰哈斯•乔希最近对《财富》杂志表示:“我们几乎暂停了所有(购房)策略。我认为房价还没有触底……平均而言,全美房价还会下跌5%,而且会因市场而异。从峰值到谷底,我们预计全美会出现12%至15%的跌幅。”
机构投资者不仅减少房屋购买量,有些投资者还在减少他们的整体单户住宅投资组合。
不妨看看美国最大的单户住宅租赁公司Invitation Homes的情况,该公司最近成为了净卖家。在2023年第一季度,Invitation Homes购买了194套房屋,却出售了297套。
一年前,也就是2022年第一季度, Invitation homes购买了822套单户住宅,仅出售了147套。黑石集团于2019年出售其股份之前,帮助Invitation homes发展壮大。
并不是只有Invitation Homes这样做,American Homes 4 Rent也是第一季度的净卖家。
2023年第一季度,American Homes 4 Rent出售的单户住宅量(666套)超过购买量(312套)。净下降使这家总部位于拉斯维加斯的公司的投资组合从全国58993套出租房屋缩减至58639套。
一年前,也就是2022年第一季度,American Homes 4 Rent购买了1131套房屋,仅出售了171套。(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
Starwood Capital CEO Barry Sternlicht doesn’t hold back on his Federal Reserve criticism: On multiple occasions he’s told CNBC anchors that the central bank’s aggressive interest rate hikes could soon spur a deep recession.
It’s easy to see why Sternlicht is so openly critical of the Fed: Starwood primarily invests in real estate, where the Fed’s interest rate hikes have already caused a great deal of economic pain.
Last week, Bloomberg reported that Starwood Real Estate Income Trust plans to shop more than 2,000 single-family rentals. Starwood—which declined Fortune‘s interview request—hasn’t publicly explained its motive for pulling back from the residential housing market, where its REIT owns over 3,200 single-family homes. That said, it’s clear that the decision to shop these 2,000 homes comes as Starwood faces an uptick in redemption requests and endures pain in the commercial real estate sector.
At first glance, one might assume Wall Street types would pull back from the commercial real estate space—where office values are sinking fast—and instead pile into the residential housing market—where national home values are rising again after passing through a mild home price correction last fall.
However, institutional firms are also timid on the residential front. According to an analysis conducted by John Burns Research and Consulting, institutional investors—those owning over 1,000 homes—bought 90% fewer homes in January and February than they did in the first two months of 2022.
Why are institutional investors pulling back so fast from the U.S. housing market?
It boils down to the fact that the financial return on each additional home added just isn’t that great right now after factoring in interest rates, house prices, and rents. Not to mention, some big investors like Yieldstreet think that national house prices, despite jumping a bit this spring, are poised for another step down.
“We’re pretty much on pause across all [homebuying] strategies,” Tejas Joshi, director of single-family residential at Yieldstreet, which owns over 700 single-family homes, recently told Fortune. “I don’t think [house] prices have bottomed yet… On average, we have another 5% decline nationally, and it’ll vary by market. Peak-to-trough, [we’re expecting] 12% to 15% [national] decline.”
Not only are institutional investors buying fewer homes, some are reducing their overall single-family portfolios.
Look no further than Invitation Homes, the largest owner of U.S. single-family rental homes, which recently became a net seller. In the first quarter of 2023, Invitation Homes bought 194 homes while it sold off 297.
A year earlier, in the first quarter of 2022, Invitation Homes—which Blackstone helped to grow before divesting in 2019—bought 822 single-family homes and sold off only 147.
Invitation Homes isn't alone: American Homes 4 Rent was also a net seller in the first quarter.
In the first quarter of 2023, American Homes 4 Rent sold off more single-family homes (666) than it bought (312). That net decline saw the Las Vegas–based company's portfolio shrink from 58,993 rental homes across the country to 58,639 homes.
A year earlier, in the first quarter of 2022, American Homes 4 Rent bought 1,131 homes and only sold off 171 homes.