目前,人工智能成为一种热门商品,在科技界引发了颠覆性的变化,使许多公司的估值飙升,但这项技术也遭遇了质疑,人们甚至担心它可能引发“末日审判”。
关于人工智能会如何影响股市、就业和全球经济,专家们意见不一,但有一位科技分析师却强调,人工智能给投资者带来了巨大的机会。
Wedbush的分析师丹·艾夫斯于6月26日在一份客户报告中表示,人工智能掀起的“淘金热”,将使科技股在今年下半年备受追捧。
他说:“人工智能改变了科技界和投资者的信心。”他把人工智能对市场的影响称为“互联网时刻”。
但艾夫斯强调,人工智能热类似于“1995年的互联网时刻”,而不是1999年的互联网泡沫时刻。后者是指在投资者向专注于互联网的公司投入大量资金后,互联网泡沫突然破灭。
艾夫斯写道:“此次人工智能淘金热正在开始演变出第二、第三和第四种衍生品,改变科技行业的格局。数十年来,我们一直密切关注科技行业,并且见证了互联网泡沫的形成与破灭,因此[我们认为]这是第四次工业革命的开端,未来几年这场革命将在整个科技行业内展开,但我们认为华尔街依旧低估了它的影响。”
艾夫斯于6月28日在接受美国消费者新闻与商业频道(CNBC)采访时指出,他“并不认为这是一个炒作周期”。
Wedbush预测,到2024年,人工智能将占IT总预算的10%。相比之下,2023年人工智能的占比只有1%左右。艾夫斯预测,基于软件的人工智能支出将成为全球首席投资官们“关注的焦点”。
他补充道:“简而言之,科技界会出现赢家和输家,但我们最终会看到科技行业[今年下半年]会有强劲的表现。虽然熊市会继续影响科技公司的估值,而且我们还要面对不确定的宏观经济环境,但我们认为,在当前人工智能革命的推动下,再加上日趋稳定的IT支出环境,这最终会掀起新一轮科技股牛市,并将延续到2024年。”
一些投资者担心科技行业将形成市场泡沫,并将不可避免破灭,今年6月的早些时候,艾夫斯在另外一篇报告里反驳了这种观点,他表示人工智能繁荣是另外一个“互联网时刻”。
2022年晚些时候,OpenAI的ChatGPT生成式人工智能聊天机器人受到全球用户追捧,成为一款现象级产品。之后,大型科技公司纷纷增加在这方面的投入,微软(Microsoft)、谷歌(Google)、亚马逊(Amazon)和百度等争相发布产品,展开激烈竞争。
科技股反弹
艾夫斯在6月26日的报告中称,由于科技公司对人工智能方面快速的大规模投资,今年意外出现的科技股反弹,将持续到今年剩余时间,甚至会出现更大幅度的反弹。
他写道:“进入2023年下半年,随着投资者进一步消化8,000亿美元人工智能支出的影响,以及明年人工智能对软件、芯片、硬件和科技生态系统的意义,科技行业将出现更大范围的反弹。”
“我们认为,今年下半年,在软件和芯片板块的带动下,科技行业整体将再上涨12%至15%,大型科技公司依旧是科技股持续反弹的‘火炬手’。”
虽然艾夫斯表示“许多人将从此次人工智能军备竞赛中受益”,但他提到有几家公司可能大力投资人工智能技术,因此它们将成为人工智能所带来的“无限变现机会”的受益者。
他预测:“在人工智能军备竞赛中,微软和英伟达(Nvidia)是显而易见的市场领导者,但这场竞赛将持续十年之久,因为我们预测,除了谷歌以外,甲骨文(Oracle)、亚马逊、赛富时(Salesforce)、Palantir、MongoDB、苹果(Apple)、IBM、Meta、Adobe、Snowflake、C3.ai等科技公司以及其他老牌科技公司和小型公司,未来几年会在该领域投资数百亿美元。”
“我们认为,微软占据了独特的优势,可以在云计算市场抢占市场份额,未来几年,其云计算服务的总体目标市场规模将增长35%至40%。”
投资者对人工智能热意见不一
除了艾夫斯,显然还有其他市场观察者也认为人工智能热是合理的。
今年5月,人工智能芯片投资热使投资者纷纷买入英伟达的股票,把该公司送进了“万亿美元俱乐部”。该俱乐部的成员包括苹果、微软和谷歌的母公司Alphabet。
艾夫斯此前预测,微软对ChatGPT的投资也可能使该科技巨头的估值大涨。
此外,今年6月的早些时候,法国一家仅成立几周的人工智能公司,利用人工智能热融资1.13亿美元,创下历史纪录,尽管这家公司还没有任何产品,并且刚刚开始招募员工。
也有投资者采取了更加谨慎的态度,而不是直接加入人工智能的潮流。
对冲基金亿万富翁肯·格里芬在最近几周警告,人工智能社区扩大对这项技术的炒作,犯了一个“严重的错误”,而ARK Invest的凯西·伍德称,人工智能热让英伟达的股票“估值过高”。
此外,TAM Asset Management的首席投资官、资深投资者詹姆斯·潘尼最近警告,人工智能热开始“有互联网泡沫时代的味道”。
关于人工智能对人类的广泛影响,商业领袖、技术专家和人工智能专家存在分歧,人们争论的是人工智能技术将代表人类的“新生”,还是人类衰落的源头。
在近期召开的邀请制的耶鲁大学首席执行官峰会(Yale CEO Summit)上,42%的受访首席执行官表示,他们认为未来五年至十年内,人工智能有可能摧毁人类。
不止首席执行官们担心人工智能的快速发展可能对全世界造成的影响。
今年3月,有1,100位知名技术专家和人工智能研究人员,包括埃隆·马斯克和苹果的联合创始人史蒂夫·沃兹尼亚克等,发表了公开信,呼吁暂停开发强大的人工智能系统六个月。
三位被誉为“人工智能教父”的著名人工智能技术先锋,对超级智能计算机是否会消灭人类,同样意见不一。
其中两位在最近的人工智能热之后曾经公开称,他们担心人工智能被滥用,但第三位“教父”却表示,认为人工智能会消灭人类的观点“是荒谬可笑的”。(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
目前,人工智能成为一种热门商品,在科技界引发了颠覆性的变化,使许多公司的估值飙升,但这项技术也遭遇了质疑,人们甚至担心它可能引发“末日审判”。
关于人工智能会如何影响股市、就业和全球经济,专家们意见不一,但有一位科技分析师却强调,人工智能给投资者带来了巨大的机会。
Wedbush的分析师丹·艾夫斯于6月26日在一份客户报告中表示,人工智能掀起的“淘金热”,将使科技股在今年下半年备受追捧。
他说:“人工智能改变了科技界和投资者的信心。”他把人工智能对市场的影响称为“互联网时刻”。
但艾夫斯强调,人工智能热类似于“1995年的互联网时刻”,而不是1999年的互联网泡沫时刻。后者是指在投资者向专注于互联网的公司投入大量资金后,互联网泡沫突然破灭。
艾夫斯写道:“此次人工智能淘金热正在开始演变出第二、第三和第四种衍生品,改变科技行业的格局。数十年来,我们一直密切关注科技行业,并且见证了互联网泡沫的形成与破灭,因此[我们认为]这是第四次工业革命的开端,未来几年这场革命将在整个科技行业内展开,但我们认为华尔街依旧低估了它的影响。”
艾夫斯于6月28日在接受美国消费者新闻与商业频道(CNBC)采访时指出,他“并不认为这是一个炒作周期”。
Wedbush预测,到2024年,人工智能将占IT总预算的10%。相比之下,2023年人工智能的占比只有1%左右。艾夫斯预测,基于软件的人工智能支出将成为全球首席投资官们“关注的焦点”。
他补充道:“简而言之,科技界会出现赢家和输家,但我们最终会看到科技行业[今年下半年]会有强劲的表现。虽然熊市会继续影响科技公司的估值,而且我们还要面对不确定的宏观经济环境,但我们认为,在当前人工智能革命的推动下,再加上日趋稳定的IT支出环境,这最终会掀起新一轮科技股牛市,并将延续到2024年。”
一些投资者担心科技行业将形成市场泡沫,并将不可避免破灭,今年6月的早些时候,艾夫斯在另外一篇报告里反驳了这种观点,他表示人工智能繁荣是另外一个“互联网时刻”。
2022年晚些时候,OpenAI的ChatGPT生成式人工智能聊天机器人受到全球用户追捧,成为一款现象级产品。之后,大型科技公司纷纷增加在这方面的投入,微软(Microsoft)、谷歌(Google)、亚马逊(Amazon)和百度等争相发布产品,展开激烈竞争。
科技股反弹
艾夫斯在6月26日的报告中称,由于科技公司对人工智能方面快速的大规模投资,今年意外出现的科技股反弹,将持续到今年剩余时间,甚至会出现更大幅度的反弹。
他写道:“进入2023年下半年,随着投资者进一步消化8,000亿美元人工智能支出的影响,以及明年人工智能对软件、芯片、硬件和科技生态系统的意义,科技行业将出现更大范围的反弹。”
“我们认为,今年下半年,在软件和芯片板块的带动下,科技行业整体将再上涨12%至15%,大型科技公司依旧是科技股持续反弹的‘火炬手’。”
虽然艾夫斯表示“许多人将从此次人工智能军备竞赛中受益”,但他提到有几家公司可能大力投资人工智能技术,因此它们将成为人工智能所带来的“无限变现机会”的受益者。
他预测:“在人工智能军备竞赛中,微软和英伟达(Nvidia)是显而易见的市场领导者,但这场竞赛将持续十年之久,因为我们预测,除了谷歌以外,甲骨文(Oracle)、亚马逊、赛富时(Salesforce)、Palantir、MongoDB、苹果(Apple)、IBM、Meta、Adobe、Snowflake、C3.ai等科技公司以及其他老牌科技公司和小型公司,未来几年会在该领域投资数百亿美元。”
“我们认为,微软占据了独特的优势,可以在云计算市场抢占市场份额,未来几年,其云计算服务的总体目标市场规模将增长35%至40%。”
投资者对人工智能热意见不一
除了艾夫斯,显然还有其他市场观察者也认为人工智能热是合理的。
今年5月,人工智能芯片投资热使投资者纷纷买入英伟达的股票,把该公司送进了“万亿美元俱乐部”。该俱乐部的成员包括苹果、微软和谷歌的母公司Alphabet。
艾夫斯此前预测,微软对ChatGPT的投资也可能使该科技巨头的估值大涨。
此外,今年6月的早些时候,法国一家仅成立几周的人工智能公司,利用人工智能热融资1.13亿美元,创下历史纪录,尽管这家公司还没有任何产品,并且刚刚开始招募员工。
也有投资者采取了更加谨慎的态度,而不是直接加入人工智能的潮流。
对冲基金亿万富翁肯·格里芬在最近几周警告,人工智能社区扩大对这项技术的炒作,犯了一个“严重的错误”,而ARK Invest的凯西·伍德称,人工智能热让英伟达的股票“估值过高”。
此外,TAM Asset Management的首席投资官、资深投资者詹姆斯·潘尼最近警告,人工智能热开始“有互联网泡沫时代的味道”。
关于人工智能对人类的广泛影响,商业领袖、技术专家和人工智能专家存在分歧,人们争论的是人工智能技术将代表人类的“新生”,还是人类衰落的源头。
在近期召开的邀请制的耶鲁大学首席执行官峰会(Yale CEO Summit)上,42%的受访首席执行官表示,他们认为未来五年至十年内,人工智能有可能摧毁人类。
不止首席执行官们担心人工智能的快速发展可能对全世界造成的影响。
今年3月,有1,100位知名技术专家和人工智能研究人员,包括埃隆·马斯克和苹果的联合创始人史蒂夫·沃兹尼亚克等,发表了公开信,呼吁暂停开发强大的人工智能系统六个月。
三位被誉为“人工智能教父”的著名人工智能技术先锋,对超级智能计算机是否会消灭人类,同样意见不一。
其中两位在最近的人工智能热之后曾经公开称,他们担心人工智能被滥用,但第三位“教父”却表示,认为人工智能会消灭人类的观点“是荒谬可笑的”。(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
A.I. is a hot commodity right now, causing a tech disruption and pushing companies’ valuations through the roof—but the technology has also been met with skepticism as well as outright fear that it could trigger Armageddon.
While experts are divided on how artificial intelligence will impact stocks, jobs, and the global economy, one tech analyst is doubling down on his view that the A.I. presents a huge opportunity for investors.
Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush, said in a note to clients on June 26 that thanks to the A.I “gold rush,” tech stocks would be heating up in the second half of this year.
“A.I. has changed the tech world and investor sentiment,” he said, labeling the technology’s impact on markets as “an internet moment.”
Ives stressed, however, that the A.I. hype was akin to a “1995 internet moment” rather than a 1999 dotcom bubble moment—referring to the tech bubble that burst after investors poured money into internet-focused firms.
“The second, third, and fourth derivatives of this A.I. gold rush are just starting to evolve for the tech landscape,” Ives wrote. “As we have covered the tech sector for decades and saw the dotcom bubble and burst firsthand, [we believe] this is the start of a fourth industrial revolution playing out across tech over the coming years that is still being underestimated by the Street in our opinion.”
In an interview with CNBC on June 28, Ives added that he “does not believe that this is a hype cycle.”
Wedbush has projected that by 2024, A.I. could account for up to 10% of overall IT budgets versus around 1% in 2023. Software-based A.I. spending will become a “laser focus” of CIOs around the globe, Ives predicted.
He added: “In a nutshell, there will be winners and losers in tech, but ultimately we see a strong [second half of the year] ahead for the tech sector. While bears will continue to fret about tech valuations and the uncertain macro backdrop, we believe this ultimately is the start of a new tech bull market we see heading into 2024, being driven by this A.I. revolution coupled with a stabilizing IT spending environment.”
Ives has previously declared the A.I. boom another internet moment, bucking some investors’ concerns that the tech is forming a market bubble that will inevitably burst, in a separate note sent earlier June.
Since OpenAI’s ChatGPT generative A.I. chatbot became a phenomenon with users all over the world in late 2022, Big Tech has amped up its own efforts in the space, with Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Baidu vying to offer the best competitor.
Broader tech rally
Because of the huge, rapid investments being made in A.I., the unexpected tech rally that has unfolded so far this year will continue to an even greater extent throughout the rest of the year, Ives said in June 26’s note.
“Heading into the second half of 2023, we see a much broader tech rally ahead as investors further digest the ramifications of this $800 billion A.I. spending wave on the horizon and what this means for the software, chip, hardware, and tech ecosystem over the next year,” he wrote.
“We believe overall the tech sector will be up another 12% to 15% in the second half of this year led by software and the chip sector, with Big Tech remaining the ‘torchbearer’ for this tech rally continuing to heat up.”
While Ives noted that “many will benefit in this A.I. arms race,” he named a slew of companies that were likely to make major investments in the technology and therefore be beneficiaries of the “immense monetization opportunity” it represented.
“With Microsoft a clear market leader in the A.I. race along with Nvidia, this battle will be a long one over the next decade as we expect other technology companies besides Google, such as Oracle, Amazon, Salesforce, Palantir, MongoDB, Apple, IBM, Meta, Adobe, Snowflake, C3.ai, and other tech stalwarts along with smaller players in the industry, to collectively spend tens of billions over the coming years,” he predicted.
“We believe that Microsoft is in a unique position to gain share in the cloud market that could expand Redmond’s total addressable market around cloud by 35% to 40% over the coming years.”
A.I. hype divides investors
Ives clearly isn’t the only market watcher to believe that the hype around A.I. is justified.
In May, buzz around A.I. chips saw investors pouring cash into Nvidia shares, pushing the company into the elite “trillion dollar club”—which counts Apple, Microsoft, and Google parent Alphabet among its members.
Ives previously predicted that Microsoft’s investment in ChatGPT could see the tech giant enjoy a similar boost to its valuation.
Meanwhile, a French A.I. firm took advantage of the hype around the tech earlier June to raise a record $113 million just weeks after being founded—despite having no product ready and only just taking on staff.
Other investors have pursued a far more cautious approach, rather than jumping on the A.I. bandwagon.
Hedge fund billionaire Ken Griffin warned in recent weeks that the A.I. community is making a “terrible mistake” by spreading hype around the technology, while ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood declared that Nvidia’s shares were “priced ahead of the curve” thanks to A.I. excitement.
Meanwhile, veteran investor James Penny, CIO of TAM Asset Management, warned recently that the A.I. hype was starting to “smell like the dotcom era.”
When it comes to A.I.’s wider impact on humanity, business leaders, technologists, and A.I. experts are divided on whether the technology of the moment will serve as a “renaissance” for humanity or the source of its downfall.
At the recent invitation-only Yale CEO Summit, 42% of CEOs surveyed at the event said they believed A.I. has the potential to destroy humanity within the next five to 10 years.
It isn’t just CEOs who are concerned about what rapidly developing artificial intelligence might unleash upon the world.
Back in March, 1,100 prominent technologists and A.I. researchers, including Elon Musk and Apple cofounder Steve Wozniak, signed an open letter calling for a six-month pause on the development of powerful A.I. systems.
Three famous A.I. pioneers nicknamed the “godfathers of A.I.” are also divided on whether superintelligent computers will bring about the end of mankind.
Two of these three so-called godfathers have, in light of the recent buzz around the technology, publicly stated that they are fearful about artificial intelligence being misused, while the third has called the concept that A.I. will wipe out humans “preposterously ridiculous.”