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国际清算银行警告:全球经济是时候该面对现实了

Agustín Carstens
2023-07-05

政策制定者需要改变观念。

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2023年6月19日,位于伦敦市的英国央行(Bank of England)外,通勤者熙来攘往。图片来源:JASON ALDEN—BLOOMBERG/GETTY IMAGES

全球经济正处于重要关口,可能会影响未来数年的经济繁荣发展。几十年来,我们第一次同时面临高通胀和金融断层线。为了防止问题变得根深蒂固,现在是时候该对当前政策的作用与局限进行客观的反思了。

随着供应链正常化、大宗商品价格下跌以及各国央行开始实施多年来最强有力且最同步的货币紧缩政策,全球通胀已经从峰值滑落。正如我们在最新公布的国际清算银行年度经济报告(BIS Annual Economic Report)中所述的那样,历史表明,通胀飙升后通常需要一年的时间才能够回落至先前的水平,即便在经济局势不那么严峻的非后疫情时期也是如此。

在此背景下,一些市场开始认为全球经济将有望实现软着陆。然而,我们必须准备好应对使经济前景充满不确定性的重大风险。

其中一个风险是高通胀可能持续下去。市场或许会出现新的价格压力。在许多国家,由于工资上涨的速度赶不上通胀,家庭购买力有所下降。随着就业市场吃紧,劳动者可能会力求缓解这种不平衡的状况。公司会更容易提高价格,而可能将上升的成本转嫁给顾客,导致恶性循环。这种情况一旦发生,就很难停止。

与此同时,干扰金融稳定的风险因素也出现了。当前,债务与资产价格均高于以往加息时期的水平。迄今为止,新冠疫情时代的储蓄和低借贷成本年份约定的较长贷款期限仍然可以发挥一定的缓冲作用。但这些缓冲也很快要耗尽了。等到缓冲消失后,经济增速可能会低于当前的预测。

这可能会导致信贷损失,由此带来财务压力。脆弱的银行面临着受挫的风险。从历史上看,银行业的承压往往会导致加息。而高债务、高资产价格和高通胀会进一步加大银行的风险。目前的情况完全相符。尽管银行的抗风险能力有所增强,但其依然存在一定的脆弱性,尤其是当旨在增强银行抗风险性的规定不适用于中小银行时。正如最近的经验所表明的那样,即便是小型机构也可能悄然引发系统性崩溃。非银行金融机构也将迎来挑战。自大金融危机(Great Financial Crisis)结束以来,这类投资公司取得了突飞猛进的发展。它们当中充斥着隐性杠杆和流动性错配的问题。另外,适用于长期低利率时代的业务模式在长期高利率时代亦将面临严峻的考验。

空虚的国库使得形势更加不明朗。当金融动荡十分严重时,就会迫使政府介入以为市场提供支持。这会打击经济增长,导致削减财政收入。这样一来,本就较高的公共债务水平会继续抬升。反过来,市场对政府偿债能力的质疑又会进一步加剧金融动荡。

政策制定者应该如何应对这些挑战?各国央行的任务显而易见:必须恢复价格稳定。适应永久性高通胀需要付出巨大的代价,特别是对于我们社会中最弱势的群体来说。

为了让各国央行拥有更大的空间对抗通货膨胀,必须出台更多措施以确保金融机构和金融系统的安全与稳定。监管不足的国家或需推出新的监管规定。各国央行与政府应该共同协作,收紧宏观审慎政策,从而减轻利率上升给银行带来的压力。而更严格的银行监管则能够弥补近期银行破产案例暴露出来的监管漏洞。我们督促政策制定者立即实施巴塞尔协议Ⅲ(Basel III)。

必须巩固财政政策。这也有助于抵抗通货膨胀和增强金融韧性。而且,此举还可以及时为未来的经济衰退提供缓冲。

最重要的是,政策的制定需要着眼长远。货币政策和财政政策在维持经济增长方面承担了太多负担。因此,它们严格测试了我们所说的“稳定区域”(region of stability)——即一系列货币政策和财政政策,这些政策能够支持经济与金融持续稳定,并且缓解两类政策之间不可避免的矛盾——的边界。历史表明,超出这些界限就会引发高通胀、经济衰退,以及银行业、货币或主权危机。

政策制定者在设定目标时必须采取务实的态度。高通胀和金融动荡的出现并非偶然事件。这是一个漫长过程的结果,并在很大程度上反映,政策制定者高估了货币政策实现通胀小目标的能力,而且像大多数人一样认为宏观经济政策可以无限期推动经济增长,而不会导致通货膨胀。

政策制定者需要改变观念。他们必须认识到反复采取紧急措施的弊端,即这种做法虽然能够在经济低迷时促进产出,但在经济恢复增长后却无法重建缓冲。为了推动经济长期繁荣,各国政府需要使一直被忽视的结构性改革重新运作起来。如果逃避现实,我们就有可能失去社会对政策决策应有的信任。从长远来看,只有价格与金融稳定才可以确保更大的经济繁荣。(财富中文网)

本文作者阿古斯丁·卡斯滕斯(Agustín Carstens)是国际清算银行(Bank for International Settlements)的行长。

Fortune.com上发表的评论文章中表达的观点,仅代表作者本人的观点,不代表《财富》杂志的观点和立场。

译者:中慧言-刘嘉欢

全球经济正处于重要关口,可能会影响未来数年的经济繁荣发展。几十年来,我们第一次同时面临高通胀和金融断层线。为了防止问题变得根深蒂固,现在是时候该对当前政策的作用与局限进行客观的反思了。

随着供应链正常化、大宗商品价格下跌以及各国央行开始实施多年来最强有力且最同步的货币紧缩政策,全球通胀已经从峰值滑落。正如我们在最新公布的国际清算银行年度经济报告(BIS Annual Economic Report)中所述的那样,历史表明,通胀飙升后通常需要一年的时间才能够回落至先前的水平,即便在经济局势不那么严峻的非后疫情时期也是如此。

在此背景下,一些市场开始认为全球经济将有望实现软着陆。然而,我们必须准备好应对使经济前景充满不确定性的重大风险。

其中一个风险是高通胀可能持续下去。市场或许会出现新的价格压力。在许多国家,由于工资上涨的速度赶不上通胀,家庭购买力有所下降。随着就业市场吃紧,劳动者可能会力求缓解这种不平衡的状况。公司会更容易提高价格,而可能将上升的成本转嫁给顾客,导致恶性循环。这种情况一旦发生,就很难停止。

与此同时,干扰金融稳定的风险因素也出现了。当前,债务与资产价格均高于以往加息时期的水平。迄今为止,新冠疫情时代的储蓄和低借贷成本年份约定的较长贷款期限仍然可以发挥一定的缓冲作用。但这些缓冲也很快要耗尽了。等到缓冲消失后,经济增速可能会低于当前的预测。

这可能会导致信贷损失,由此带来财务压力。脆弱的银行面临着受挫的风险。从历史上看,银行业的承压往往会导致加息。而高债务、高资产价格和高通胀会进一步加大银行的风险。目前的情况完全相符。尽管银行的抗风险能力有所增强,但其依然存在一定的脆弱性,尤其是当旨在增强银行抗风险性的规定不适用于中小银行时。正如最近的经验所表明的那样,即便是小型机构也可能悄然引发系统性崩溃。非银行金融机构也将迎来挑战。自大金融危机(Great Financial Crisis)结束以来,这类投资公司取得了突飞猛进的发展。它们当中充斥着隐性杠杆和流动性错配的问题。另外,适用于长期低利率时代的业务模式在长期高利率时代亦将面临严峻的考验。

空虚的国库使得形势更加不明朗。当金融动荡十分严重时,就会迫使政府介入以为市场提供支持。这会打击经济增长,导致削减财政收入。这样一来,本就较高的公共债务水平会继续抬升。反过来,市场对政府偿债能力的质疑又会进一步加剧金融动荡。

政策制定者应该如何应对这些挑战?各国央行的任务显而易见:必须恢复价格稳定。适应永久性高通胀需要付出巨大的代价,特别是对于我们社会中最弱势的群体来说。

为了让各国央行拥有更大的空间对抗通货膨胀,必须出台更多措施以确保金融机构和金融系统的安全与稳定。监管不足的国家或需推出新的监管规定。各国央行与政府应该共同协作,收紧宏观审慎政策,从而减轻利率上升给银行带来的压力。而更严格的银行监管则能够弥补近期银行破产案例暴露出来的监管漏洞。我们督促政策制定者立即实施巴塞尔协议Ⅲ(Basel III)。

必须巩固财政政策。这也有助于抵抗通货膨胀和增强金融韧性。而且,此举还可以及时为未来的经济衰退提供缓冲。

最重要的是,政策的制定需要着眼长远。货币政策和财政政策在维持经济增长方面承担了太多负担。因此,它们严格测试了我们所说的“稳定区域”(region of stability)——即一系列货币政策和财政政策,这些政策能够支持经济与金融持续稳定,并且缓解两类政策之间不可避免的矛盾——的边界。历史表明,超出这些界限就会引发高通胀、经济衰退,以及银行业、货币或主权危机。

政策制定者在设定目标时必须采取务实的态度。高通胀和金融动荡的出现并非偶然事件。这是一个漫长过程的结果,并在很大程度上反映,政策制定者高估了货币政策实现通胀小目标的能力,而且像大多数人一样认为宏观经济政策可以无限期推动经济增长,而不会导致通货膨胀。

政策制定者需要改变观念。他们必须认识到反复采取紧急措施的弊端,即这种做法虽然能够在经济低迷时促进产出,但在经济恢复增长后却无法重建缓冲。为了推动经济长期繁荣,各国政府需要使一直被忽视的结构性改革重新运作起来。如果逃避现实,我们就有可能失去社会对政策决策应有的信任。从长远来看,只有价格与金融稳定才可以确保更大的经济繁荣。(财富中文网)

本文作者阿古斯丁·卡斯滕斯(Agustín Carstens)是国际清算银行(Bank for International Settlements)的行长。

Fortune.com上发表的评论文章中表达的观点,仅代表作者本人的观点,不代表《财富》杂志的观点和立场。

译者:中慧言-刘嘉欢

The global economy is at a critical juncture that could weigh on prosperity for years to come. For the first time in decades, we face a combination of high inflation and financial fault lines. To stop these problems from becoming entrenched, it’s time for a reality check on what current policy settings can and cannot achieve.

Global inflation has crept down from its peaks as supply chains normalized, commodity prices fell and central banks embarked on the strongest and most synchronized monetary policy tightening in years. As we report in the latest BIS Annual Economic Report, history shows that it typically takes a year for inflation to return to its previous level after surges, even during episodes less acute than the one following the pandemic.

Against this backdrop, there is an emerging sense of hope in some quarters that the global economy will achieve a soft, or soft-ish, landing. But we must be ready to tackle the significant risks that cloud the outlook.

One risk is that high inflation could persist. New price pressures could emerge. In many countries, households’ purchasing power has fallen, as wages have not kept pace with inflation. With tight job markets, workers may seek to redress the balance. Firms have found it easier to raise prices and may pass higher costs on to consumers, creating a vicious cycle. Once this sets in, it is hard to stop.

Meanwhile, risks to financial stability loom. Debt and asset prices exceed those in past periods of interest rate hikes. So far, there are still buffers from pandemic-era savings and longer loan terms locked in during years of low borrowing costs. But these buffers are depleting. As they exhaust, growth could slow more than currently expected.

The resulting financial strains will likely come through credit losses. Weak banks risk losing their footing. Historically, banking stress often goes in tandem with higher interest rates. High debt, high asset prices, and high inflation add to the risks. The current episode ticks all the boxes. Although banks are stronger than before, pockets of vulnerability remain, especially where rules to make banks stronger were not applied to smaller banks. As recent experience has shown, even small institutions can trigger systemic collapses in confidence. Non-bank financial institutions will also be challenged. These types of investment firms have grown in leaps and bounds since the Great Financial Crisis. They are rife with hidden leverage and liquidity mismatches. Business models that worked in the era of low-for-long rates will face stern tests in a higher-for-longer one.

Shaky government coffers cloud the picture further. Financial instability, if acute enough, forces governments to step in to backstop markets. And it delivers a growth hit that weakens fiscal revenues. This would heighten already high public debt levels. In turn, any doubts about the government’s ability to pay its bills add to financial instability.

How should policymakers respond to these challenges? Central banks’ task is clear: they must restore price stability. A shift to permanent high inflation would have enormous costs, especially for the most vulnerable in our societies.

To give central banks more room to fight inflation, extra measures must kick in to ensure the safety and stability of financial institutions and the financial system. Where gaps exist, new regulations may be required. Working together, central banks and governments should keep macroprudential policies tight, as this can limit the strains higher rates place on banks. And stiffer bank supervision could remedy some of the faults that came to light in recent bank failures. We urge policymakers to implement Basel III now without further delay.

Fiscal policy must consolidate. This too would help in the fight against inflation and bolster financial resiliency. And it would provide badly-needed buffers that could be deployed against future downturns.

Above all, policy needs to take a longer-term view. Monetary and fiscal policies have carried too much of the burden of sustaining economic growth. As a result, they have severely tested the limits of what we call the region of stability – the mix of monetary and fiscal policy that fosters enduring economic and financial stability and defuses the inevitable tensions between them. History shows that overstepping these boundaries can trigger high inflation, economic slumps, and banking, currency, or sovereign crises.

Policymakers must be realistic about what they can achieve. High inflation and financial instability did not emerge by accident. They were the result of a long journey, reflecting in no small part an overly ambitious view of monetary policy’s ability to hit a small inflation target and a more general belief that macroeconomic policy could support growth indefinitely, without stoking inflation.

Mindsets need to change. They must recognize the shortcomings of repeated emergency action, which stimulates output in downturns but fails to rebuild buffers when growth resumes. To drive long-term economic prosperity, governments need to reinvigorate long-neglected structural reforms. Without a reality check, we risk losing the trust that society needs to have in policymaking. Only price and financial stability can assure wider economic prosperity over the longer term.

Agustín Carstens is the general manager of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).

The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.

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