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郊区再次成为美国人口迁移的首选

美国人在郊区的召唤下重返郊区,即使不是为了社区体验,至少也是为了郊区更经济实惠。

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图片来源:FOUND IMAGE HOLDINGS INC / CONTRIBUTOR—GETTY IMAGES

郊区就是人们修剪草坪,并赞美这一希腊小神(称为草坪)的地方。郊区万神殿的其他成员包括尖桩篱栅、购物中心,当然还有棚屋(只可远观而不可亵玩)。自20世纪50年代战后繁荣以来,这一切都是美国梦的一部分,而近 75 年后的今天,在美国住宅(以及涉及住宅相关的)负担能力危机不断升级的情况下,它仍然存在。

皮尤研究中心(Pew Research Center)发现,正如有据可查的那样,新冠肺炎疫情促使更多的美国人不再钟情于城市,因此,郊区迎来了(众多轮复苏中的)最新一轮复苏。最新一轮复苏在2020年之前就已经开始,亚利桑那州立大学的克里斯托弗·布恩(Christopher Boone)在2018年为《对话》(The Conversation)杂志撰文称,美国是 "郊区之国",并指出郊区居民数量超过了城市和农村居民。同年,《财富》杂志报道了21世纪城市复兴的重大转变,郊区成为“新的热门目的地”。

在这十年里,由于远程办公将员工从办公室中解放出来,使他们有机会搬到更经济实惠的地区,从2020年到2022年,有200多万人离开了大城市。疫情时期的人口迁移量究竟有多大还有待观察,但显而易见的是,人口迁移的优先级正在发生变化。即使由于混合办公模式,远程工作者被召回办公室办公,人们仍然会被郊区的塞壬之歌(象征诱惑和诱人的声音,通常用于形容难以抵抗的吸引力)所吸引。

研究和咨询公司益普索(Ipsos)消费者追踪的最新调查揭示了吸引美国人回到郊区的原因:不是美国梦本身,而仅是负担能力。

塞壬的负担能力之歌

益普索发现,在疫情爆发三年后,五分之一的美国人仍在寻求迁移。一如既往,最热门的迁入地是郊区(31%),其次是农村地区(24%),然后是离家人近的地方(24%)。

根据益普索的调查,考虑到负担能力仍然是迁移的首要原因(39%),其次是总体生活成本(38%),许多人似乎已被过高的房价赶出了城市地区。在通货膨胀率居高不下(但仍在下降)的时代,即使是六位数的薪资也无法带来像过去那样舒适的生活方式,尤其是在生活成本通常较高的城市。

尽管近年来郊区的名声不佳,但与城市生活相比,郊区似乎仍是一个更经济实惠的选择。实际上,郊区与其说是一种梦想,不如说是一场噩梦,从郊区(人为产物)的发展历史来看,这也是合情合理的。郊区诞生于第二次世界大战后。当时,艾森豪威尔政府修建了联邦高速公路系统,将各大城市与其"郊外住宅区"连接起来,因此,随着中产阶级的崛起和汽车文化的兴起,郊区蓬勃发展。

纽约莱维敦(Levittown)(被广泛认为是贝蒂·克罗克(Betty Crocker)的诞生地)烙下了种族隔离和父权制的烙印。在接下来的几十年时间里,所谓的白人逃离时代在城市和郊区之间形成了文化鸿沟。里根时代伊始,传声头像( Talking Heads)乐队在1981年的《千载难逢》(Once in a Lifetime)这首歌曲中将郊区描绘得令人魂牵梦萦,大卫·伯恩(David Byrne)在歌中唱到了“大汽车”、“漂亮的房子”和“娇美的妻子”。在歌曲中间,歌手问道:"天哪,我都干了些什么?"但这句歌词淡出后,引出了一段令人毛骨悚然的重复:“一如既往,一如既往。”

《心理健康》通讯的作者P.E.莫斯科维茨(P.E. Moskowitz)在《国家》杂志(The Nation)上指出,郊区独有的与世隔绝和对汽车的依赖导致了可怕的后果。他们认为,“郊区”几乎消除了美国人集体抗议的能力,并演变成“滋生反动思想,把美国人变成总是害怕恶势力”的意识形态。他们特别提到了塔吉特(Target)公司争议,认为这正是该思想导致的直接后果。这家《财富》杂志世界500强企业实际上是被迫退出了一场面向跨性别人士的广告活动。

“甜甜圈效应”和郊区新边界

如今,郊区的多样性已经远远超过了其最初面貌和随之而来的刻板印象,越来越能代表美国的真实面貌。郊区(以及类似郊区的社区)在 21 世纪面临的挑战是 "甜甜圈效应",在这种效应下,远程工作使得中心商业区被掏空,而富裕人群则在其附近围成了一个大圈子——换句话说,这是本世纪中叶人们逃离市中心地区的翻版和升级版。正如伊丽莎白·尼伯恩(Elizabeth Kneebone)在 2020 年为布鲁金斯学会(Brookings)撰写的文章中所说的那样,人们对郊区的定义缺乏共识。无论郊区的定义是什么,它首先是一种心态,一种美国人为了追求更廉价、更美好的生活而想要搬到那里的心态。

矛盾的是,美国人现在也比以往任何时候都更寻求社区体验,这可能是由于最近疫情引发的社交隔离和孤独流行病所引发的。但郊区是出了名的与世隔绝的环境,基本上把居民锁在车内,彼此隔绝。但似乎人们对积累财富的欲望仍然战胜了日益高涨的了解邻居的欲望,尤其是当益普索发现,郊区小镇的政治氛围在美国人的优先级上排名靠后时。

对一些人来说,郊区的吸引力仍然很大,千禧一代也不能幸免;美国银行研究的一项调查发现,31岁至41岁的年轻人搬到住宅的可能性几乎是公寓的三倍。在所有年龄段的千禧一代中,有43%到45%的人表示,尽管直到最近郊区市场的竞争还相当激烈,他们还是希望在郊区买房。该报告的作者认为,千禧一代正在寻求积累财富,并投资于相对经济实惠的地区(至少与人口持续流失的主要大都市相比)。

尽管草坪上有粉色塑料火烈鸟,还可以参与在帕内拉闲逛等丰富的活动,但根据益普索的数据,搬到郊区的其他主要因素包括该地区的犯罪率(37%)、负担得起的医疗保健选择(28%)、气候(23%)和就业市场(20%)。对这些新迁入者来说,最不重要的是接受高等教育的机会和该地区的政治环境。鉴于美国政治的两极分化,居民们对邻居的政治信仰视而不见,这或许令人惊讶。

看起来似乎是草坪的诱惑力——而且是负担得起的草坪——胜出了。我们都信奉特定的神,而郊区众神在美国人心目中占据着重要地位,不管他们是谁。(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

郊区就是人们修剪草坪,并赞美这一希腊小神(称为草坪)的地方。郊区万神殿的其他成员包括尖桩篱栅、购物中心,当然还有棚屋(只可远观而不可亵玩)。自20世纪50年代战后繁荣以来,这一切都是美国梦的一部分,而近 75 年后的今天,在美国住宅(以及涉及住宅相关的)负担能力危机不断升级的情况下,它仍然存在。

皮尤研究中心(Pew Research Center)发现,正如有据可查的那样,新冠肺炎疫情促使更多的美国人不再钟情于城市,因此,郊区迎来了(众多轮复苏中的)最新一轮复苏。最新一轮复苏在2020年之前就已经开始,亚利桑那州立大学的克里斯托弗·布恩(Christopher Boone)在2018年为《对话》(The Conversation)杂志撰文称,美国是 "郊区之国",并指出郊区居民数量超过了城市和农村居民。同年,《财富》杂志报道了21世纪城市复兴的重大转变,郊区成为“新的热门目的地”。

在这十年里,由于远程办公将员工从办公室中解放出来,使他们有机会搬到更经济实惠的地区,从2020年到2022年,有200多万人离开了大城市。疫情时期的人口迁移量究竟有多大还有待观察,但显而易见的是,人口迁移的优先级正在发生变化。即使由于混合办公模式,远程工作者被召回办公室办公,人们仍然会被郊区的塞壬之歌(象征诱惑和诱人的声音,通常用于形容难以抵抗的吸引力)所吸引。

研究和咨询公司益普索(Ipsos)消费者追踪的最新调查揭示了吸引美国人回到郊区的原因:不是美国梦本身,而仅是负担能力。

塞壬的负担能力之歌

益普索发现,在疫情爆发三年后,五分之一的美国人仍在寻求迁移。一如既往,最热门的迁入地是郊区(31%),其次是农村地区(24%),然后是离家人近的地方(24%)。

根据益普索的调查,考虑到负担能力仍然是迁移的首要原因(39%),其次是总体生活成本(38%),许多人似乎已被过高的房价赶出了城市地区。在通货膨胀率居高不下(但仍在下降)的时代,即使是六位数的薪资也无法带来像过去那样舒适的生活方式,尤其是在生活成本通常较高的城市。

尽管近年来郊区的名声不佳,但与城市生活相比,郊区似乎仍是一个更经济实惠的选择。实际上,郊区与其说是一种梦想,不如说是一场噩梦,从郊区(人为产物)的发展历史来看,这也是合情合理的。郊区诞生于第二次世界大战后。当时,艾森豪威尔政府修建了联邦高速公路系统,将各大城市与其"郊外住宅区"连接起来,因此,随着中产阶级的崛起和汽车文化的兴起,郊区蓬勃发展。

纽约莱维敦(Levittown)(被广泛认为是贝蒂·克罗克(Betty Crocker)的诞生地)烙下了种族隔离和父权制的烙印。在接下来的几十年时间里,所谓的白人逃离时代在城市和郊区之间形成了文化鸿沟。里根时代伊始,传声头像( Talking Heads)乐队在1981年的《千载难逢》(Once in a Lifetime)这首歌曲中将郊区描绘得令人魂牵梦萦,大卫·伯恩(David Byrne)在歌中唱到了“大汽车”、“漂亮的房子”和“娇美的妻子”。在歌曲中间,歌手问道:"天哪,我都干了些什么?"但这句歌词淡出后,引出了一段令人毛骨悚然的重复:“一如既往,一如既往。”

《心理健康》通讯的作者P.E.莫斯科维茨(P.E. Moskowitz)在《国家》杂志(The Nation)上指出,郊区独有的与世隔绝和对汽车的依赖导致了可怕的后果。他们认为,“郊区”几乎消除了美国人集体抗议的能力,并演变成“滋生反动思想,把美国人变成总是害怕恶势力”的意识形态。他们特别提到了塔吉特(Target)公司争议,认为这正是该思想导致的直接后果。这家《财富》杂志世界500强企业实际上是被迫退出了一场面向跨性别人士的广告活动。

“甜甜圈效应”和郊区新边界

如今,郊区的多样性已经远远超过了其最初面貌和随之而来的刻板印象,越来越能代表美国的真实面貌。郊区(以及类似郊区的社区)在 21 世纪面临的挑战是 "甜甜圈效应",在这种效应下,远程工作使得中心商业区被掏空,而富裕人群则在其附近围成了一个大圈子——换句话说,这是本世纪中叶人们逃离市中心地区的翻版和升级版。正如伊丽莎白·尼伯恩(Elizabeth Kneebone)在 2020 年为布鲁金斯学会(Brookings)撰写的文章中所说的那样,人们对郊区的定义缺乏共识。无论郊区的定义是什么,它首先是一种心态,一种美国人为了追求更廉价、更美好的生活而想要搬到那里的心态。

矛盾的是,美国人现在也比以往任何时候都更寻求社区体验,这可能是由于最近疫情引发的社交隔离和孤独流行病所引发的。但郊区是出了名的与世隔绝的环境,基本上把居民锁在车内,彼此隔绝。但似乎人们对积累财富的欲望仍然战胜了日益高涨的了解邻居的欲望,尤其是当益普索发现,郊区小镇的政治氛围在美国人的优先级上排名靠后时。

对一些人来说,郊区的吸引力仍然很大,千禧一代也不能幸免;美国银行研究的一项调查发现,31岁至41岁的年轻人搬到住宅的可能性几乎是公寓的三倍。在所有年龄段的千禧一代中,有43%到45%的人表示,尽管直到最近郊区市场的竞争还相当激烈,他们还是希望在郊区买房。该报告的作者认为,千禧一代正在寻求积累财富,并投资于相对经济实惠的地区(至少与人口持续流失的主要大都市相比)。

尽管草坪上有粉色塑料火烈鸟,还可以参与在帕内拉闲逛等丰富的活动,但根据益普索的数据,搬到郊区的其他主要因素包括该地区的犯罪率(37%)、负担得起的医疗保健选择(28%)、气候(23%)和就业市场(20%)。对这些新迁入者来说,最不重要的是接受高等教育的机会和该地区的政治环境。鉴于美国政治的两极分化,居民们对邻居的政治信仰视而不见,这或许令人惊讶。

看起来似乎是草坪的诱惑力——而且是负担得起的草坪——胜出了。我们都信奉特定的神,而郊区众神在美国人心目中占据着重要地位,不管他们是谁。(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

The suburbs: where people mow, trim, and praise the minor Greek god known as the lawns. Other members of the suburban pantheon include picket fences, malls, and of course, the shed (which is to be awed at and never touched). It’s all been a part of the American Dream since the postwar boom of the 1950s, and nearly 75 years later it persists amid an escalating crisis of affordability for (and involving) the American home.

As is well-documented, the pandemic prompted more Americans to fall out of love with cities, with the ‘burbs enjoying the latest of their many revivals, Pew Research Center found. The move was already in progress before 2020, as Arizona State’s Christopher Boone wrote about the U.S. as “a nation of suburbs” for The Conversation in 2018, noting that suburban-dwellers outnumbered those who lived in the city and country. That same year, Fortune reported on a major shift in the urban revival of the 21st century, with suburbs emerging as “the hot new destination.”

This decade, as remote work untethered employees from the office, freeing them up to move to more affordable places, over 2 million people left large urban areas from 2020 to 2022. How dramatic this pandemic migration actually was still remains to be seen, but it’s clear that priorities are shifting. And even as remote workers are ushered back to the office with hybrid policies, people are still drawn by the sweet suburban siren call.

The latest polling from the Ipsos Consumer Tracker, a research and consulting firm, reveals what is drawing Americans back to the suburbs: It’s not the American Dream per se, but pure affordability.

The siren’s affordability song

Three years after the pandemic first hit, one in five Americans is still looking to relocate, Ipsos finds. The hottest spot for those on the go is, as always, the suburbs (at 31%), followed by rural areas (24%) and then simply anywhere that is closer to family (24%).

Considering that affordability remains the top reason for relocating (39%) followed by the general cost of living (38%), per Ipsos, it seems many have been priced out of urban areas. In a time marked by high (yet ebbing) inflation, even six-figure salaries don’t lead to as comfortable of a lifestyle as they used to, especially in cities where the cost of living is often known to be higher.

But it still seems to be a more affordable option than city life, and that’s despite the bad rap the suburbs have developed in recent years. The suburbs can be in practice more of a nightmare than any other kind of dream, which makes sense given the history of the man-made invention. Born after World War II, suburbia boomed alongside the burgeoning middle class as well as the emergent car culture, fueled by the Eisenhower administration building a federal highway system connecting every major city with its “bedroom communities.”

Levittown, New York, widely considered the original Betty Crocker town, baked into said location a legacy of segregation and enshrinement of patriarchal norms. In coming decades, the so-called white flight era entrenched a cultural divide between cities and suburbs. The suburbs were memorably conjured by the Talking Heads at the dawn of the Reagan era with 1981’s “Once in a Lifetime,” as David Byrne talk-sings about a “large automobile,” with a “beautiful house” and a “beautiful wife.” At one point, the narrator wonders “My God, what have I done?” But this fades away, leading to an eerie refrain: “Same as it ever was, same as it ever was.”

P.E. Moskowitz, author of the Mental Health newsletter, argued in The Nation that the suburbs’ uniquely isolated and car-dependent nature have led to terrible outcomes. The ‘burbs have all but eliminated Americans’ ability to collectively protest and evolved into an ideology that “breeds reactionary thinking and turns Americans into people constantly scared of a Big Bad Other,” they argued. In particular, they cited the Target controversy, as a Fortune 500 firm was effectively bullied into retreating from a trans-oriented ad campaign, as a direct outgrowth of this thinking.

The ‘donut effect’ and the new suburban frontier

These days, the suburbs have grown far more diverse than their origins and ensuing stereotypes, becoming more of a representation of what America actually looks like. The 21st-century challenge facing the suburbs (and suburb-like communities) is the “donut effect,” where remote work-depressed central business districts hollow out as a wealthy ring emerges in a broad circle nearby—in other words, a remixed and updated version of the midcentury flight out of inner-city areas. This all puts to one side, as Elizabeth Kneebone wrote for Brookings in 2020, that the suburbs lack a consensus definition altogether. Whatever they may or may not be, the suburbs are above all a mentality, a state of mind that Americans want to move to in pursuit of a cheaper and better life.

Paradoxically, Americans are also looking for community now more than ever, perhaps stoked by the recent isolation and loneliness epidemic spurred on by the pandemic. But the suburbs are a famously isolating environment, essentially locking residents inside their cars and apart from each other. But it seems as if the desire to build wealth still wins out over this rising urge to know thy neighbor, especially as Ipsos finds that the political climate of the suburban town is low on Americans’ list of priorities.

The suburban pull remains strong for some, and millennials aren’t immune; a Bank of America Research survey found that 31- to 41-year-olds are almost three times more likely to move to a house than an apartment. And 43% to 45% of millennials of all ages report that they’re looking to buy a house in the suburbs, despite a market that was quite competitive until recently. The authors of the report suggest that millennials are looking to build wealth and invest in relatively affordable areas (at least compared to major metropolitan areas, which continue to experience a population drain).

Notwithstanding the plastic pink lawn flamingos and ample activities like loitering at Panera, other main factors for moving to the suburbs per Ipsos’ data include the location’s crime rates (37%), affordable healthcare options (28%), climate (23%), and the job market (20%). Least important to these new movers was their access to higher education and the politics of the area. It’s perhaps surprising given the polarization in American politics that residents are turning a blind eye to what their neighbors believe.

It seems as if the lure of lawns—and an affordable one—at that wins out. We all worship our own particular deity, and the gods of the suburbs loom large in the American mind, whatever they are.

财富中文网所刊载内容之知识产权为财富媒体知识产权有限公司及/或相关权利人专属所有或持有。未经许可,禁止进行转载、摘编、复制及建立镜像等任何使用。
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