一项最新研究显示,人类行为导致的全球变暖,使今年7月全球八成人口遭遇了更炎热的天气,有超过20亿人每天都能感受到气候变化导致的天气暖化。
科学非营利组织Climate Central周三发布的最新报告显示,超过65亿人(占全球人口的81%)至少经历了一天酷热天气,感受到气候变化对日常平均气温的显著影响。该组织致力于计算气候变化对日常天气的影响程度。
Climate Central科学副总裁安德鲁·珀欣表示:“全世界几乎每一个角落都感受到了气候变化的影响。”
研究人员7月对4,711个城市进行了分析,在其中4,019个城市发现了气候变化指纹。有其他科学家认为今年7月是有史以来最热的月份。这项最新研究的计算结果显示,燃烧煤炭、石油和天然气使这些城市出现至少一天更炎热天气的概率提高了三倍。在美国,受气候影响最严重的是佛罗里达州,有超过2.44亿人因气候变化感觉今年7月更加炎热。
在今年7月,有20亿人因为气候变化感觉每天变得更加炎热的几率提高了三倍。这些人主要位于热带地区,例如在沙特麦加和洪都拉斯圣佩德罗苏拉的百万人口城市。
报告显示,7月10日,气候变化的影响范围最为广泛,有35亿人遭遇了全球变暖导致的极端高温。而据缅因州大学(University of Maine)的网站Climate Reanalyzer显示,全球最热的一天则是在7月7日。
由于7月刚刚结束,因此该项研究尚未经过同行审议。同行审议是科学界的黄金标准。该研究采用了其他组织使用的气候指纹识别法。这种方法经过同行审议,被美国国家科学院(National Academy of Sciences)认定为具有技术有效性。两位外部气候科学家对美联社称,他们认为这项研究是可信的。
一年多前,Climate Central开发了一款名为气候变化指数(Climate Shift Index)的衡量工具。它使用欧洲和美国的预测、观察结果和计算机模拟,可实时计算气候变化对全球气温的影响。为了发现气候变化的影响是否存在,科学家们将记录的气温与无气候变化导致全球变暖且气温低约2度(1.2摄氏度)的模拟情景进行对比,以确定高温天气自然发生的概率。
普林斯顿大学(Princeton University)气候科学家加布里埃尔·维奇表示:“到目前为止,我们应该习惯了将每一次热浪都与全球变暖关联起来。可惜,这个月,正如这项研究所示,全球绝大多数人都受到了全球变暖对极端高温的影响。”维奇并未参与本项研究。
在美国,有22个城市至少有20天因为气候变化出现极端高温的概率提高了两倍,包括迈阿密、休斯敦、菲尼克斯、坦帕、拉斯维加斯和奥斯汀等。
7月受气候变化影响最严重的美国城市是佛罗里达州开普科勒尔,当地因为燃烧化石燃料使当月气温升高的概率提高了4.6倍,在31天中有29天出现明显的气候变化指纹。
美国北方地区在7月因为气候变化受到的影响较小。研究人员发现,北达科塔州和南达科塔州、怀俄明州、加州北部、纽约州北部和俄亥俄州、密歇根州、明尼苏达州与威斯康辛州的部分地区,没有受到气候变化的显著影响。
珀欣表示,世界气候归因组织(World Weather Attribution)特别分析了美国西南部、地中海甚至中国的高温,均找到了气候变化的信号,但加勒比海和中东等地区虽然气候变化信号更加明显,但并没有引起关注。与其他研究不同,本项研究分析的是全球趋势。
美联社气候与环境报道得到多家私人基金会支持。更多信息请参阅美联社的气候倡议。美联社对所有内容全权负责。 (财富中文网)
翻译:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
2023年8月2日,伊朗德黑兰,正值当地的两天假期,风平浪静,人们用遮阳伞应对极端高温。摄影:FATEMEH BAHRAMI/ANADOLU AGENCY经盖蒂图片社提供
一项最新研究显示,人类行为导致的全球变暖,使今年7月全球八成人口遭遇了更炎热的天气,有超过20亿人每天都能感受到气候变化导致的天气暖化。
科学非营利组织Climate Central周三发布的最新报告显示,超过65亿人(占全球人口的81%)至少经历了一天酷热天气,感受到气候变化对日常平均气温的显著影响。该组织致力于计算气候变化对日常天气的影响程度。
Climate Central科学副总裁安德鲁·珀欣表示:“全世界几乎每一个角落都感受到了气候变化的影响。”
研究人员7月对4,711个城市进行了分析,在其中4,019个城市发现了气候变化指纹。有其他科学家认为今年7月是有史以来最热的月份。这项最新研究的计算结果显示,燃烧煤炭、石油和天然气使这些城市出现至少一天更炎热天气的概率提高了三倍。在美国,受气候影响最严重的是佛罗里达州,有超过2.44亿人因气候变化感觉今年7月更加炎热。
在今年7月,有20亿人因为气候变化感觉每天变得更加炎热的几率提高了三倍。这些人主要位于热带地区,例如在沙特麦加和洪都拉斯圣佩德罗苏拉的百万人口城市。
报告显示,7月10日,气候变化的影响范围最为广泛,有35亿人遭遇了全球变暖导致的极端高温。而据缅因州大学(University of Maine)的网站Climate Reanalyzer显示,全球最热的一天则是在7月7日。
由于7月刚刚结束,因此该项研究尚未经过同行审议。同行审议是科学界的黄金标准。该研究采用了其他组织使用的气候指纹识别法。这种方法经过同行审议,被美国国家科学院(National Academy of Sciences)认定为具有技术有效性。两位外部气候科学家对美联社称,他们认为这项研究是可信的。
一年多前,Climate Central开发了一款名为气候变化指数(Climate Shift Index)的衡量工具。它使用欧洲和美国的预测、观察结果和计算机模拟,可实时计算气候变化对全球气温的影响。为了发现气候变化的影响是否存在,科学家们将记录的气温与无气候变化导致全球变暖且气温低约2度(1.2摄氏度)的模拟情景进行对比,以确定高温天气自然发生的概率。
普林斯顿大学(Princeton University)气候科学家加布里埃尔·维奇表示:“到目前为止,我们应该习惯了将每一次热浪都与全球变暖关联起来。可惜,这个月,正如这项研究所示,全球绝大多数人都受到了全球变暖对极端高温的影响。”维奇并未参与本项研究。
在美国,有22个城市至少有20天因为气候变化出现极端高温的概率提高了两倍,包括迈阿密、休斯敦、菲尼克斯、坦帕、拉斯维加斯和奥斯汀等。
7月受气候变化影响最严重的美国城市是佛罗里达州开普科勒尔,当地因为燃烧化石燃料使当月气温升高的概率提高了4.6倍,在31天中有29天出现明显的气候变化指纹。
美国北方地区在7月因为气候变化受到的影响较小。研究人员发现,北达科塔州和南达科塔州、怀俄明州、加州北部、纽约州北部和俄亥俄州、密歇根州、明尼苏达州与威斯康辛州的部分地区,没有受到气候变化的显著影响。
珀欣表示,世界气候归因组织(World Weather Attribution)特别分析了美国西南部、地中海甚至中国的高温,均找到了气候变化的信号,但加勒比海和中东等地区虽然气候变化信号更加明显,但并没有引起关注。与其他研究不同,本项研究分析的是全球趋势。
美联社气候与环境报道得到多家私人基金会支持。更多信息请参阅美联社的气候倡议。美联社对所有内容全权负责。 (财富中文网)
翻译:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
People use umbrellas to shield from the sun on a calm day during the two-day holiday over extreme heat in Tehran, Iran on August 02, 2023.
Human-caused global warming made July hotter for four out of five people on Earth, with more than 2 billion people feeling climate change-boosted warmth daily, according to a flash study.
More than 6.5 billion people, or 81% of the world’s population, sweated through at least one day where climate change had a significant effect on the average daily temperature, according to a new report issued Wednesday by Climate Central, a science nonprofit that has figured a way to calculate how much climate change has affected daily weather.
“We really are experiencing climate change just about everywhere,” said Climate Central Vice President for Science Andrew Pershing.
Researchers looked at 4,711 cities and found climate change fingerprints in 4,019 of them for July, which other scientists said is the hottest month on record. The new study calculated that the burning of coal, oil and natural gas had made it three times more likely to be hotter on at least one day in those cities. In the U.S., where the climate effect was largest in Florida, more than 244 million people felt greater heat due to climate change during July.
For 2 billion people, in a mostly tropical belt across the globe, climate change made it three times more likely to be hotter every single day of July. Those include the million-person cities of Mecca, Saudi Arabia and San Pedro Sula, Honduras.
The day with the most widespread climate-change effect was July 10, when 3.5 billion people experienced extreme heat that had global warming’s fingerprints, according to the report. That’s different than the hottest day globally, which was July 7, according to the University of Maine’s Climate Reanalyzer.
The study is not peer-reviewed, the gold standard for science, because the month just ended. It is based on peer-reviewed climate fingerprinting methods that are used by other groups and are considered technically valid by the National Academy of Sciences. Two outside climate scientists told The Associated Press that they found the study to be credible.
More than a year ago Climate Central developed a measurement tool called the Climate Shift Index. It calculates the effect, if any, of climate change on temperatures across the globe in real time, using European and U.S. forecasts, observations and computer simulations. To find if there is an effect, the scientists compare recorded temperatures to a simulated world with no warming from climate change and it’s about 2 degrees (1.2 degrees Celsius) cooler to find out the chances that the heat was natural.
“By now, we should all be used to individual heat waves being connected to global warming,” said Princeton University climate scientist Gabriel Vecchi, who wasn’t part of the study. “Unfortunately, this month, as this study elegantly shows, has given the vast majority of people on this planet a taste of global warming’s impact on extreme heat.”
In the United States, 22 U.S. cities had at least 20 days when climate change tripled the likelihood of extra heat, including Miami, Houston, Phoenix, Tampa, Las Vegas and Austin.
The U.S. city most affected by climate change in July was Cape Coral, Florida, which saw fossil fuels make hotter temperatures 4.6 times more likely for the month and had 29 out of 31 days where there was a significant climate change fingerprint.
The farther north in the United States, the less of a climate effect was seen in July. Researchers found no significant effect in places like North Dakota and South Dakota, Wyoming, northern California, upstate New York and parts of Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin.
Heat waves in the U.S. Southwest, the Mediterranean and even China have gotten special analysis by World Weather Attribution finding a climate change signal, but places like the Caribbean and Middle East are having huge climate change signals and not getting the attention, Pershing said. Unlike the other study, this one looked at the entire globe.
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