首页 500强 活动 榜单 商业 科技 领导力 专题 品牌中心
杂志订阅

为何专家说经济一片大好,市场的情绪却不乐观?

ALICIA ADAMCZYK
2023-08-08

“我的许多客户仍然很谨慎,因为他们还是能感受到痛苦,却道不出原因,而这让他们感到害怕。”

文本设置
小号
默认
大号
Plus(0条)

图片来源:STEFANI REYNOLDS/GETTY IMAGES

从各方面来看,美国的经济状况都相当不错:失业率偏低(尤其是在正值黄金工作年龄的群体中),人们对经济衰退的担忧正在减弱,消费者支出稳健,工资增长也终于超过了通胀率。

然而,当浏览社交媒体或与朋友交谈时,你会发现,那些好消息似乎并未引起大众的共鸣。哥伦比亚广播公司(CBS)不久前的一项投票调查显示,61%的受访者认为美国经济正“举步维艰”,而且当让受访者选择用良好或糟糕来描述美国经济状况时,65%的人选择了后者。市场情绪为何会与数据分析结论脱节?

简言之:事实和数据并不是总能准确地反映出人们对生活经历的感受。就美国经济而言,多年来的物价上涨和对经济衰退的担忧让一些家庭对未来感到恐惧。正如一些评论者所说的,“经济衰退氛围”(vibecession)依然浓厚。

大急流城EFG Financial的信托投资顾问凯利•吉尔伯特(Kelly Gilbert)表示:“2023年上半年的经济新闻大多是关于大型科技公司裁员、利率上升以及银行倒闭的消息。因此,即使在未失业的情况下,美国人也一直在提心吊胆地等待最终命运的降临。”

通胀或许正在放缓,但整体趋势并未出现逆转:从食品到住房等各项消费品的价格仍然比几年前昂贵得多(且核心通胀率依然很高)。虽然工资可能正在上涨,但其过去两年的涨幅却赶不上通胀速度。事实上,现在的实际工资相比疫情前几乎没有增加,这意味着美国家庭在三年多的时间里没有真正获得加薪。还有许多方面亟需改善,这对于人们来说比头条上的就业数据重要多了。

以杂货为例。食品价格每年的涨幅通常为2%左右。但从2021年到2022年,该数值却高达11%,而且物价在此前的2021年就已经大幅上涨。美国劳工统计局(U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)的数据显示,食品是普通家庭预算中的第三大支出(仅次于住房和交通)——他们或许能够削减一些不必要的的家庭支出,但却无法避免饮食方面的花销。

住房成本也是一个重要因素。那些在2020年利率最低时期没有能力购买住房的人如今感到在可预见的未来将购房无望。不只是他们无法负担起刚刚经历完三年暴涨的高昂房价,而且买了房子的人也不愿意将房子出售而失去最优利率。租房者只能花费明显更高的成本来租赁面积小得多的住房。另一方面,虽然房主从房价的飙升中受益,但他们并不能每天都轻松抓住机遇。

美国银行(Bank of America)的客户服务与社区银行业务主管克里斯蒂娜·钱内尔斯(Christine Channels)表示,这种焦虑情绪在Z世代中尤为盛行。尤其是考虑到房价飞涨,年轻一代如今都努力存钱,量入为出。

钱内尔斯说:“虽然经济正在好转,但普通消费者的荷包并没有从中得到好处。”

因为美联储的加息举措,那些拥有债务的美国人如今要支付更多的利息。储蓄率也许会随之上升,但借款成本的增加对消费者预算的影响可能更大(而且从心理上来说,会助长我们的消极偏见)。此外,几个月后,当联邦学生贷款偿付恢复,数千万人将会再增加几百美元的债务负担。

即使是年薪六位数的人也体验到了痛楚。尽管这些劳动者拥有高水平的收入,但其中越来越多的人称自己是月光族,这凸显了通胀对他们的打击。

而且,在过去一年多的时间里,关于经济衰退的预测不绝于耳。虽然经济还未真正出现衰退(至少目前还没有),但考虑到一个接一个的头条新闻都在说经济即将崩溃,人们会认为经济正在下滑也无可厚非。

尽管如此,据密歇根大学(University of Michigan)消费者信心指数——7月份上升8.2点至72.6,达到自2021年9月以来的最高值——显示,美国的经济氛围已经开始改善。随着股市反弹和天然气价格同比明显下跌,市场情绪可能会继续高涨。

不过,如今美国家庭必需品成本增加、储蓄减少且信用卡债务破记录,而且消费者信心仍低于新冠疫情前的水平。市场的反弹也并没有太大的意义,因为投资者还远没有挽回2022年的损失。

吉尔伯特表示:“我的许多客户仍然很谨慎,因为他们还是能感受到痛苦,却道不出原因,而这让他们感到害怕。”(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-刘嘉欢

从各方面来看,美国的经济状况都相当不错:失业率偏低(尤其是在正值黄金工作年龄的群体中),人们对经济衰退的担忧正在减弱,消费者支出稳健,工资增长也终于超过了通胀率。

然而,当浏览社交媒体或与朋友交谈时,你会发现,那些好消息似乎并未引起大众的共鸣。哥伦比亚广播公司(CBS)不久前的一项投票调查显示,61%的受访者认为美国经济正“举步维艰”,而且当让受访者选择用良好或糟糕来描述美国经济状况时,65%的人选择了后者。市场情绪为何会与数据分析结论脱节?

简言之:事实和数据并不是总能准确地反映出人们对生活经历的感受。就美国经济而言,多年来的物价上涨和对经济衰退的担忧让一些家庭对未来感到恐惧。正如一些评论者所说的,“经济衰退氛围”(vibecession)依然浓厚。

大急流城EFG Financial的信托投资顾问凯利•吉尔伯特(Kelly Gilbert)表示:“2023年上半年的经济新闻大多是关于大型科技公司裁员、利率上升以及银行倒闭的消息。因此,即使在未失业的情况下,美国人也一直在提心吊胆地等待最终命运的降临。”

通胀或许正在放缓,但整体趋势并未出现逆转:从食品到住房等各项消费品的价格仍然比几年前昂贵得多(且核心通胀率依然很高)。虽然工资可能正在上涨,但其过去两年的涨幅却赶不上通胀速度。事实上,现在的实际工资相比疫情前几乎没有增加,这意味着美国家庭在三年多的时间里没有真正获得加薪。还有许多方面亟需改善,这对于人们来说比头条上的就业数据重要多了。

以杂货为例。食品价格每年的涨幅通常为2%左右。但从2021年到2022年,该数值却高达11%,而且物价在此前的2021年就已经大幅上涨。美国劳工统计局(U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)的数据显示,食品是普通家庭预算中的第三大支出(仅次于住房和交通)——他们或许能够削减一些不必要的的家庭支出,但却无法避免饮食方面的花销。

住房成本也是一个重要因素。那些在2020年利率最低时期没有能力购买住房的人如今感到在可预见的未来将购房无望。不只是他们无法负担起刚刚经历完三年暴涨的高昂房价,而且买了房子的人也不愿意将房子出售而失去最优利率。租房者只能花费明显更高的成本来租赁面积小得多的住房。另一方面,虽然房主从房价的飙升中受益,但他们并不能每天都轻松抓住机遇。

美国银行(Bank of America)的客户服务与社区银行业务主管克里斯蒂娜·钱内尔斯(Christine Channels)表示,这种焦虑情绪在Z世代中尤为盛行。尤其是考虑到房价飞涨,年轻一代如今都努力存钱,量入为出。

钱内尔斯说:“虽然经济正在好转,但普通消费者的荷包并没有从中得到好处。”

因为美联储的加息举措,那些拥有债务的美国人如今要支付更多的利息。储蓄率也许会随之上升,但借款成本的增加对消费者预算的影响可能更大(而且从心理上来说,会助长我们的消极偏见)。此外,几个月后,当联邦学生贷款偿付恢复,数千万人将会再增加几百美元的债务负担。

即使是年薪六位数的人也体验到了痛楚。尽管这些劳动者拥有高水平的收入,但其中越来越多的人称自己是月光族,这凸显了通胀对他们的打击。

而且,在过去一年多的时间里,关于经济衰退的预测不绝于耳。虽然经济还未真正出现衰退(至少目前还没有),但考虑到一个接一个的头条新闻都在说经济即将崩溃,人们会认为经济正在下滑也无可厚非。

尽管如此,据密歇根大学(University of Michigan)消费者信心指数——7月份上升8.2点至72.6,达到自2021年9月以来的最高值——显示,美国的经济氛围已经开始改善。随着股市反弹和天然气价格同比明显下跌,市场情绪可能会继续高涨。

不过,如今美国家庭必需品成本增加、储蓄减少且信用卡债务破记录,而且消费者信心仍低于新冠疫情前的水平。市场的反弹也并没有太大的意义,因为投资者还远没有挽回2022年的损失。

吉尔伯特表示:“我的许多客户仍然很谨慎,因为他们还是能感受到痛苦,却道不出原因,而这让他们感到害怕。”(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-刘嘉欢

By all accounts, the U.S. economy is humming along quite nicely. Unemployment is low (especially among Americans in their prime working years), recession fears are abating, consumer spending is healthy, and wage increases are finally beating inflation.

Scroll on social media or talk to your friends, though, and the good news doesn’t seem to be translating. A recent CBS poll found 61% of respondents believe the economy is “struggling,” and, given the choice between good or bad, 65% describe the economy as the latter. Why is there such a disconnect?

The short of it: Facts and figures don’t always line up with how people perceive their lived experience. In the case of the U.S. economy, years of rising prices and recession fears have left some households afraid of what’s to come. The “vibecession,” as some commenters have called it, is alive and well.

“The economic news for the first half of 2023 was dominated with big tech layoffs, rising interest rates, and bank failures,” says Kelly Gilbert, fiduciary investment advisor at EFG Financial in Grand Rapids. “So, while we have jobs, Americans have always been waiting for the other shoe to drop.”

Inflation may be moderating, but it’s not reversing: Everything from food to housing still costs a lot more than it did a few years ago (and core inflation is still high). And while wages may be rising now, they weren’t keeping up with inflation for the past two years. In fact, real wages have barely risen from pre-pandemic levels, meaning families haven’t really gotten a raise in more than three years. There’s a lot of ground to make up, and that matters a lot more to people than a headline jobs number.

Take groceries. Food prices typically increase around 2% a year. But from 2021 to 2022, they increased a whopping 11%, after already increasing significantly in 2021. Food is the third largest expense in the typical family’s budget, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (after housing and transportation)—and while they might be able to trim some superfluous household spending, there’s not much that can be done to avoid eating.

Housing costs also play a big role. Those who weren’t able to buy in the low-rate heyday in 2020 now feel locked out for the foreseeable future. Not only can they not afford the prices, which soared over the past three years, but those who did buy aren’t willing to sell and lose their optimal interest rate. Renters have been left to pay significantly more for significantly less. And while homeowners are benefiting from their home’s soaring value, they can’t tap into it easily day to day.

The angst is especially common among Gen Z, says Christine Channels, head of client services and community banking at Bank of America. The younger generation is struggling to save and spend within their means, given the soaring costs of housing in particular.

“Though the economy is improving, the everyday consumer is not feeling the benefit to their wallet,” says Channels.

Thanks to the Fed’s interest rate campaign, those who have debt are paying a lot more interest on it. Savings rates may be going up in tandem, but the increase in borrowing costs is likely much more of a factor for consumers’ budgets (and, psychologically, plays into our negativity bias). Plus, tens of millions are about to have another multi-hundred-dollar bill added to their plate in a few months when federal student loan payments resume.

Even six-figure earners are feeling the pain. While these workers are at the top of the income spectrum, more and more report living paycheck to paycheck, highlighting inflation’s sting.

And then there was the drumbeat of recession predictions over the past year-plus. Though a recession hasn’t come to fruition (at least, not yet), you’d be forgiven for thinking the economy was tanking given headline after headline about an imminent collapse.

All that said, the vibes are starting to improve, according to the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, which rose by 8.2 points to 72.6 in July, the highest since September 2021. With the stock market rallying and gas prices significantly lower than they were this time last year, sentiment may keep going up.

Still, families are paying more for essentials, saving less, and accruing record credit card debt—and consumer sentiment is still below pre-pandemic levels. The market’s rally, too, is less meaningful when investors have so far to go to recover their losses from 2022.

“Many of my clients are still cautious because they still feel the pain, but can’t point to why, and that scares them,” says Gilbert.

财富中文网所刊载内容之知识产权为财富媒体知识产权有限公司及/或相关权利人专属所有或持有。未经许可,禁止进行转载、摘编、复制及建立镜像等任何使用。
0条Plus
精彩评论
评论

撰写或查看更多评论

请打开财富Plus APP

前往打开