夏威夷山火造成了极具毁灭性的破坏,这似乎是由强风、低湿度和干燥的植被等众多危险因素共同导致的。
专家也表示,气候变化增加了更多像毛伊岛大火这类极端天气事件发生的可能性——这场灾难造成至少6人死亡,并摧毁了一个历史旅游小镇。
不列颠哥伦比亚大学(University of British Columbia)林业学院的博士后研究员凯尔茜•科佩斯-格比茨(Kelsey Copes-Gerbitz)说:“气候变化导致了我们现在看到的各种难以预测或始料不及的因素,它们共同引发了这类极端火灾天气。这些……毁灭性的山火灾难揭示了无处能幸免于气候变化的影响。”
因何而起?
据气象学家称,气压的巨大差异导致了特别强劲的信风,助长了这场破坏性大火的蔓延。
信风是夏威夷的典型气候特征。当空气从夏威夷以北的高压带(即北太平洋高压)移动到赤道的低气压带到达该州的南部时,就会出现这种自然现象。
不过,美国国家气象局(National Weather Service)火奴鲁鲁办公室的气象学家让坎·基诺(Genki Kino)表示,本周从夏威夷群岛经过的飓风多拉(Hurricane Dora)使得低压系统增强,加大了气压差,从而产生了“特别强劲的信风”。
强风加上低湿度和大量易燃的干燥植被会增加发生火灾的危险,即使在像毛伊岛这样的热带岛屿也是如此。
俄勒冈州立大学(Oregon State University)俄勒冈气候变化研究所(Oregon Climate Change Research Institute)所长埃里卡·弗莱什曼(Erica Fleishman)说:“如果所有这些情况同时出现,那往往就是国家气象局通常所说的‘红色警报情况’。”
气候变化发挥着怎样的影响
弗莱什曼表示:“全球许多地区的植被都变得更加干燥,很大程度上是因为气候变化导致气温升高。即使降水量不变,如果温度上升,东西也会干得更快。”
夏威夷大学(University of Hawaii)火灾科学家克莱·特劳尔尼希特(Clay Trauernicht)说,雨季可以促进几内亚草(在毛伊岛部分地区发现的一种外来入侵物种)等植物快速生长,使它们能够每天长6英寸(15厘米),最高可长到10英尺(3米)。这些植物干枯后,就会成为容易引发野火的易燃物。
特劳尔尼希特表示:“这些草地会迅速积累燃料。由于天气更加炎热和干燥,加上降雨量变化无常,这只会加剧问题。”
气候变化不仅会造成气温升高,从而增加火灾风险,还会使得发生强飓风的可能性增大。这些风暴进而又会引发更严重的风灾事件(如导致毛伊岛大火的风灾事件)。
除此之外,气候变化还加剧了其他一些威胁。
弗莱什曼说:“在全球范围内,飓风的强度正呈现上升趋势,部分原因是变暖的空气容纳了更多的水分。此外,由于全球海平面正在上升,当飓风登陆时,风暴潮往往会导致更严重的洪水。”
专家们表示,虽然不能说气候变化直接导致了单个事件的发生,但极端天气对社会带来的影响是不可否认的。
不列颠哥伦比亚大学的科佩斯-格比茨说:“我们以往确实没有应对过这类由气候变化引起的灾难。正是这些来自多方面且相互影响的挑战真正导致了灾难。”(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-刘嘉欢
夏威夷山火造成了极具毁灭性的破坏,这似乎是由强风、低湿度和干燥的植被等众多危险因素共同导致的。
专家也表示,气候变化增加了更多像毛伊岛大火这类极端天气事件发生的可能性——这场灾难造成至少6人死亡,并摧毁了一个历史旅游小镇。
不列颠哥伦比亚大学(University of British Columbia)林业学院的博士后研究员凯尔茜•科佩斯-格比茨(Kelsey Copes-Gerbitz)说:“气候变化导致了我们现在看到的各种难以预测或始料不及的因素,它们共同引发了这类极端火灾天气。这些……毁灭性的山火灾难揭示了无处能幸免于气候变化的影响。”
因何而起?
据气象学家称,气压的巨大差异导致了特别强劲的信风,助长了这场破坏性大火的蔓延。
信风是夏威夷的典型气候特征。当空气从夏威夷以北的高压带(即北太平洋高压)移动到赤道的低气压带到达该州的南部时,就会出现这种自然现象。
不过,美国国家气象局(National Weather Service)火奴鲁鲁办公室的气象学家让坎·基诺(Genki Kino)表示,本周从夏威夷群岛经过的飓风多拉(Hurricane Dora)使得低压系统增强,加大了气压差,从而产生了“特别强劲的信风”。
强风加上低湿度和大量易燃的干燥植被会增加发生火灾的危险,即使在像毛伊岛这样的热带岛屿也是如此。
俄勒冈州立大学(Oregon State University)俄勒冈气候变化研究所(Oregon Climate Change Research Institute)所长埃里卡·弗莱什曼(Erica Fleishman)说:“如果所有这些情况同时出现,那往往就是国家气象局通常所说的‘红色警报情况’。”
气候变化发挥着怎样的影响
弗莱什曼表示:“全球许多地区的植被都变得更加干燥,很大程度上是因为气候变化导致气温升高。即使降水量不变,如果温度上升,东西也会干得更快。”
夏威夷大学(University of Hawaii)火灾科学家克莱·特劳尔尼希特(Clay Trauernicht)说,雨季可以促进几内亚草(在毛伊岛部分地区发现的一种外来入侵物种)等植物快速生长,使它们能够每天长6英寸(15厘米),最高可长到10英尺(3米)。这些植物干枯后,就会成为容易引发野火的易燃物。
特劳尔尼希特表示:“这些草地会迅速积累燃料。由于天气更加炎热和干燥,加上降雨量变化无常,这只会加剧问题。”
气候变化不仅会造成气温升高,从而增加火灾风险,还会使得发生强飓风的可能性增大。这些风暴进而又会引发更严重的风灾事件(如导致毛伊岛大火的风灾事件)。
除此之外,气候变化还加剧了其他一些威胁。
弗莱什曼说:“在全球范围内,飓风的强度正呈现上升趋势,部分原因是变暖的空气容纳了更多的水分。此外,由于全球海平面正在上升,当飓风登陆时,风暴潮往往会导致更严重的洪水。”
专家们表示,虽然不能说气候变化直接导致了单个事件的发生,但极端天气对社会带来的影响是不可否认的。
不列颠哥伦比亚大学的科佩斯-格比茨说:“我们以往确实没有应对过这类由气候变化引起的灾难。正是这些来自多方面且相互影响的挑战真正导致了灾难。”(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-刘嘉欢
A dangerous mix of conditions appear to have combined to make the wildfires blazing a path of destruction in Hawaii particularly damaging, including high winds, low humidity and dry vegetation.
Experts also say climate change is increasing the likelihood of more extreme weather events like what’s playing out on the island of Maui, where at least six people have been killed and a historic tourist town was devastated.
“It’s leading to these unpredictable or unforeseen combinations that we’re seeing right now and that are fueling this extreme fire weather,” said Kelsey Copes-Gerbitz, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of British Columbia’s faculty of forestry. “What these … catastrophic wildfire disasters are revealing is that nowhere is immune to the issue.”
WHAT’S FUELING THEM?
Major differences in air pressure drove unusually strong trade winds that fanned the destructive flames, according to meteorologists.
Trade winds are a normal feature of Hawaii’s climate. They’re caused when air moves from the high-pressure system pressure north of Hawaii — known as the North Pacific High — to the area of low pressure at the equator, to the south of the state.
But Hurricane Dora, which passed south of the islands this week, is exacerbating the low-pressure system and increasing the difference in air pressure to create “unusually strong trade winds,” said Genki Kino, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in Honolulu.
Strong winds, combined with low humidity and an abundance of dry vegetation that burns easily, can increase the danger, even on a tropical island like Maui.
“If you have all of those conditions at the same time, it’s often what the National Weather Service calls ‘red flag conditions,’” said Erica Fleishman, director of the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute at Oregon State University.
HOW CLIMATE CHANGE PLAYS A ROLE
“Climate change in many parts of the world is increasing vegetation dryness, in large part because temperatures are hotter,” Fleishman said. “Even if you have the same amount of precipitation, if you have higher temperatures, things dry out faster.”
Clay Trauernicht, a fire scientist at the University of Hawaii, said the wet season can spur plants like Guinea grass, a nonnative, invasive species found across parts of Maui, to grow as quickly as 6 inches (15 centimeters) a day and reach up to 10 feet (3 meters) tall. When it dries out, it creates a tinderbox that’s ripe for wildfire.
“These grasslands accumulate fuels very rapidly,” Trauernicht said. “In hotter conditions and drier conditions, with variable rainfall, it’s only going to exacerbate the problem.”
Climate change not only increases the fire risk by driving up temperatures, but also makes stronger hurricanes more likely. In turn, those storms could fuel stronger wind events like the one behind the Maui fires.
That’s on top of other threats made worse by climate changes.
“There’s an increasing trend in the intensity of hurricanes worldwide, in part because warm air holds more water,” Fleishman said. “In addition to that, sea levels are rising worldwide, so you tend to get more severe flooding from the storm surge when a hurricane makes landfall.”
While climate change can’t be said to directly cause singular events, experts say, the impact extreme weather is having on communities is undeniable.
“These kinds of climate change-related disasters are really beyond the scope of things that we’re used to dealing with,” UBC’s Copes-Gerbitz said. “It’s these kind of multiple, interactive challenges that really lead to a disaster.”