在周二的交易中暴跌逾40%前不久,做空传奇人物吉姆·查诺斯对越南声名远播的汽车股VinFast Auto颇有微词。
这位(在安然公司倒闭前)因做空安然公司大赚一笔而一举成名的投机者,仅在几小时前还将这家电动汽车新贵称为“市值2000亿美元的网红股”。
他在X(前身推特)上发推文称:“散户正在买入一只期权交易员认为未来三周将下跌50%的股票。”他引用的是基于9月15日到期的看跌期权的隐含价格。
目前尚不清楚查诺斯是否在暗示,他本人也在做空VinFast,就像他做空电动汽车竞争对手特斯拉(Tesla)一样,但投资者会听从这位华尔街资深人士的交易建议。
无论如何,VinFast的股价随后暴跌。
无法立即联系到查诺斯进行置评,而VinFast的代表也没有回应《财富》杂志的置评请求。
这家越南汽车制造商作为上市公司的首次亮相,在某种程度上,标志着这家初创公司创造了童话。
本月早些时候,该公司通过特殊目的收购公司(SPAC)上市,避开了传统的、更为严格的首次公开募股(IPO)方式。
短短几天内,该公司的市值就几乎超过了整个汽车行业。
如果VFS(Vinfast)幸运的话,他们今年将生产4万辆电动汽车,而丰田(Toyota)将在未来40小时内生产4万辆。
尽管VinFast只是一家成立6年的汽车制造公司,迄今为止只售出了1.87万辆电动汽车,而且其所在国家去年的汽车产量只有摩洛哥的一半。
更糟糕的是,它之所以声名狼藉,是因为其今年将在美国市场推出的新型电动汽车粗制滥造。
客户对该公司大为恼火,以至于该公司迅速在6月份出台了一项政策,对车主的损失进行赔偿。
VinFast仅在周二就损失了超过800亿美元的市值,但仍是仅次于特斯拉和丰田的全球第三大最有价值的汽车制造商,这凸显出该公司在本周初被严重高估。
高股价:基于VinFast低自由流通股本
要真正了解VinFast惊人的市值规模,我们不妨将其与汽车同行进行比较。
雅虎财经(Yahoo Finance)援引晨星公司(Morningstar)的数据称,丰田的市值低于其过去12个月的营收。对于一个成熟的行业领导者来说,这是一个合理的估值。相比之下,通用汽车(GM)和福特(Ford)面临投资者大幅提高贴现率(从而导致估值降低)。
在成长型股票领域,Rivian、蔚来汽车(Nio)和小鹏汽车(Xpeng)等电动汽车制造商的估值高达其营收的6倍。在埃隆·马斯克的领导下,特斯拉的溢价甚至更高,因为投资者预计其自动驾驶软件完全自动驾驶系统(FSD)将在这一高利润行业获得的收益中占据更大份额。
与之形成鲜明对比的是,VinFast的交易价格是其年销售额的350倍,这令人震惊,也引发了对其市场估值的严重质疑。
然而,尽管做空者很有可能押注大量资金,押注该公司最终会从过高的估值回落,但这并非易事。
对于查诺斯或其他任何想要做空的人来说,仅找到能够并愿意出借这些股票的主要经纪商,可能就极具挑战性。
这是因为该公司99%的股份由一个人持有:董事长兼创始人潘日旺(Pham Nhat Vuong)。凭借VinFast,潘日旺本周一度成为亚洲第二富有的富豪(账面上)。
此外,由于稍有买盘压力,赌注就会迅速下跌,做空VinFast所需的抵押品可能会高得令人望而却步。
对于任何想要在如此波动的股票上冒险的人来说,接受查诺斯的间接暗示,直接在期权市场寻找机会可能更容易。(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
在周二的交易中暴跌逾40%前不久,做空传奇人物吉姆·查诺斯对越南声名远播的汽车股VinFast Auto颇有微词。
这位(在安然公司倒闭前)因做空安然公司大赚一笔而一举成名的投机者,仅在几小时前还将这家电动汽车新贵称为“市值2000亿美元的网红股”。
他在X(前身推特)上发推文称:“散户正在买入一只期权交易员认为未来三周将下跌50%的股票。”他引用的是基于9月15日到期的看跌期权的隐含价格。
目前尚不清楚查诺斯是否在暗示,他本人也在做空VinFast,就像他做空电动汽车竞争对手特斯拉(Tesla)一样,但投资者会听从这位华尔街资深人士的交易建议。
无论如何,VinFast的股价随后暴跌。
无法立即联系到查诺斯进行置评,而VinFast的代表也没有回应《财富》杂志的置评请求。
这家越南汽车制造商作为上市公司的首次亮相,在某种程度上,标志着这家初创公司创造了童话。
本月早些时候,该公司通过特殊目的收购公司(SPAC)上市,避开了传统的、更为严格的首次公开募股(IPO)方式。
短短几天内,该公司的市值就几乎超过了整个汽车行业。
如果VFS(Vinfast)幸运的话,他们今年将生产4万辆电动汽车,而丰田(Toyota)将在未来40小时内生产4万辆。
尽管VinFast只是一家成立6年的汽车制造公司,迄今为止只售出了1.87万辆电动汽车,而且其所在国家去年的汽车产量只有摩洛哥的一半。
更糟糕的是,它之所以声名狼藉,是因为其今年将在美国市场推出的新型电动汽车粗制滥造。
客户对该公司大为恼火,以至于该公司迅速在6月份出台了一项政策,对车主的损失进行赔偿。
VinFast仅在周二就损失了超过800亿美元的市值,但仍是仅次于特斯拉和丰田的全球第三大最有价值的汽车制造商,这凸显出该公司在本周初被严重高估。
高股价:基于VinFast低自由流通股本
要真正了解VinFast惊人的市值规模,我们不妨将其与汽车同行进行比较。
雅虎财经(Yahoo Finance)援引晨星公司(Morningstar)的数据称,丰田的市值低于其过去12个月的营收。对于一个成熟的行业领导者来说,这是一个合理的估值。相比之下,通用汽车(GM)和福特(Ford)面临投资者大幅提高贴现率(从而导致估值降低)。
在成长型股票领域,Rivian、蔚来汽车(Nio)和小鹏汽车(Xpeng)等电动汽车制造商的估值高达其营收的6倍。在埃隆·马斯克的领导下,特斯拉的溢价甚至更高,因为投资者预计其自动驾驶软件完全自动驾驶系统(FSD)将在这一高利润行业获得的收益中占据更大份额。
与之形成鲜明对比的是,VinFast的交易价格是其年销售额的350倍,这令人震惊,也引发了对其市场估值的严重质疑。
然而,尽管做空者很有可能押注大量资金,押注该公司最终会从过高的估值回落,但这并非易事。
对于查诺斯或其他任何想要做空的人来说,仅找到能够并愿意出借这些股票的主要经纪商,可能就极具挑战性。
这是因为该公司99%的股份由一个人持有:董事长兼创始人潘日旺(Pham Nhat Vuong)。凭借VinFast,潘日旺本周一度成为亚洲第二富有的富豪(账面上)。
此外,由于稍有买盘压力,赌注就会迅速下跌,做空VinFast所需的抵押品可能会高得令人望而却步。
对于任何想要在如此波动的股票上冒险的人来说,接受查诺斯的间接暗示,直接在期权市场寻找机会可能更容易。(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
Short-selling legend Jim Chanos had a few choice words for VinFast Auto, the wunderkind car stock from Vietnam, shortly before it tanked by more than 40% in Tuesday’s trading session.
The speculator, who famously made a fortune betting against Enron before its demise, branded the electric vehicle newcomer a “$200 billion meme stock” only hours earlier.
“Retail is buying a stock that options traders think will drop 50%…in the next three weeks,” he tweeted on Musk’s rebranded X site, citing the implied price based on put options set to expire on Sept. 15.
It’s unclear whether Chanos was signaling he himself was taking on a short position in VinFast just as he has with EV rival Tesla, but investors follow the Wall Street veteran for trading advice.
Either way, shares in VinFast plummeted thereafter.
Chanos could not be immediately reached for comment, while representatives from VinFast did not respond to a request by Fortune for comment.
The Vietnamese carmaker’s debut as a publicly traded company marked something of a fairy tale for the startup.
Eschewing a conventional and more rigorous IPO, it listed earlier this month through a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC).
In a matter of days, it had overtaken almost the entire car industry in market value.
If $VFS (Vinfast) is lucky, they will do 40K units this year. Toyota will do 40K units in the next 40 hours.
This is despite the fact that VinFast is just a six-year-old carmaker that sold only 18,700 electric vehicles to date and hails from a country that built half as many cars as Morocco last year.
Worse, what notoriety it had won came from building the worst new EV to be launched in the U.S. market this year.
Customers were so furious it quickly rushed out in June a policy to compensate owners for their troubles.
VinFast losing over $80 billion in market cap on a single Tuesday and still ranking as the world’s third most valuable carmaker, after Tesla and Toyota, highlights the company’s significant overvaluation at the beginning of the week.
High stock price based on VinFast’s thin free float
To truly grasp the astonishing scale of VinFast’s market capitalization, let’s compare it with its automotive peers.
According to Morningstar data cited by Yahoo Finance, Toyota’s market cap is less than its trailing 12-month revenue. This is a reasonable valuation for a mature industry leader. In contrast, GM and Ford face more substantial discounts from investors.
In the realm of growth stocks, electric vehicle manufacturers like Rivian, Nio, and Xpeng are valued at up to six times their respective revenue figures. Tesla, under Elon Musk’s leadership, commands an even higher premium as investors anticipate a greater share of high-margin earnings from its self-driving software, FSD.
In stark contrast, VinFast was trading at a staggering 350 times its annual sales. This raises serious questions about its market valuation.
Yet as much as it may be tempting for short-sellers to place sizable bets on the air eventually being let out of its inflated, it’s not that easy.
For Chanos or anyone else willing to place a bearish wager, simply locating a prime broker able and willing to loan out the shares could prove extremely challenging.
That’s because 99% of the stock is held by one man: chairman and founder Pham Nhat Vuong, who at one point this week was Asia’s second richest tycoon on paper thanks to VinFast.
Moreover, since the bet could quickly go south at the slightest buying pressure, the collateral requirements that come with shorting VinFast could prove prohibitively high.
For anyone willing to risk money on such a volatile stock, it may be easier to take Chanos’s indirect suggestion and simply look for opportunity in the options market.