埃隆·马斯克说过很多离谱的话,但他在美国劳动节(Labor Day)晚上7:04发布的这条消息,可能是有史以来企业领导人对自己企业做出的最负面的评价,而且实际上他是在自我批评。
马斯克在攻击由犹太人领导的民权组织美国反诽谤联盟(Anti-Defamation League)时,发射了这一轮令人震惊的言论炮火。美国反诽谤联盟强烈反对X公司允许在平台上发布极右仇恨组织的反犹推文。马斯克则指责美国反诽谤联盟“咄咄逼人地要求封禁社交媒体账户,即便是轻微的违规行为”,而且该组织“试图扼杀X”,迫使广告商回避该网站。但最令人费解的并不是马斯克又一次口无遮拦地搬起石头砸自己的脚,而是他居然对美国反诽谤联盟造成的所谓的经济损失进行了估算,而这很可能会让他的合作伙伴和债权人跌破眼镜。
他的惊人算术是关于推特(Twitter)的现值。自2022年10月收购推特平台以来,马斯克曾经多次表示,该平台的价值已经大幅下跌,主要原因是广告收入灾难性下降。马斯克以440亿美元的价格收购了推特,其中130亿美元来自大牌商业银行和投资银行的贷款,310亿美元来自股权。在后一部分资金中,马斯克自己出资约240亿美元,而包括拉里·埃里森、罗恩·巴伦和沙特阿拉伯王子阿尔·瓦利德在内的一批投资者朋友出资70亿美元。
在这篇帖子里,马斯克指责说:“美国反诽谤联盟似乎应该对我们大部分的收入损失负责。”他补充道:”我认为他们至少要对10%的价值破坏负责,所以大约是40亿美元。”按理说,马斯克所说的“价值”指的是完成收购整体支付的440亿美元,而不是股权部分。毕竟,如果你以44万美元的价格买了一栋房子,借了13万美元,并用现金支付了剩余的31万美元,而房价下跌了,你就会根据这栋房子现在的价格比44万美元低多少来计算“价值”的下跌。
根据马斯克的计算,美国反诽谤联盟仅凭一己之力就使X的“价值”蒸发了约40亿美元,而这40亿美元约占整个公司价值跌幅的10%。按此计算,总跌幅为400亿美元。由于马斯克和合作伙伴支付了440亿美元(包括债务),他的意思是,该平台现在将以40亿美元(440亿美元的收购价减去400亿美元的“价值破坏”)的价格易手,跌幅为90%。那么,马斯克其实是在说,他与合伙人投资的310亿美元股权已经完全不复存在,而华尔街精英们提供的一大部分债务也远在水面之下。
埃隆·马斯克真的认为X现在值40亿美元吗?也许不是。但他刚刚给自己本已陷入困境的品牌又造成了一次打击,这将进一步损害其在广告商心目中的地位。他的观点可能是:当你是受害者时,如果错误归咎于他人,夸大痛苦和抛出损失数字就是可以接受的。如果X确实经历了一场金融灾难,人们很可能就会忘记这些借口,而去审视其多情的唯一所有者所犯下的错误。(财富中文网)
译者:珠珠
埃隆·马斯克说过很多离谱的话,但他在美国劳动节(Labor Day)晚上7:04发布的这条消息,可能是有史以来企业领导人对自己企业做出的最负面的评价,而且实际上他是在自我批评。
马斯克在攻击由犹太人领导的民权组织美国反诽谤联盟(Anti-Defamation League)时,发射了这一轮令人震惊的言论炮火。美国反诽谤联盟强烈反对X公司允许在平台上发布极右仇恨组织的反犹推文。马斯克则指责美国反诽谤联盟“咄咄逼人地要求封禁社交媒体账户,即便是轻微的违规行为”,而且该组织“试图扼杀X”,迫使广告商回避该网站。但最令人费解的并不是马斯克又一次口无遮拦地搬起石头砸自己的脚,而是他居然对美国反诽谤联盟造成的所谓的经济损失进行了估算,而这很可能会让他的合作伙伴和债权人跌破眼镜。
他的惊人算术是关于推特(Twitter)的现值。自2022年10月收购推特平台以来,马斯克曾经多次表示,该平台的价值已经大幅下跌,主要原因是广告收入灾难性下降。马斯克以440亿美元的价格收购了推特,其中130亿美元来自大牌商业银行和投资银行的贷款,310亿美元来自股权。在后一部分资金中,马斯克自己出资约240亿美元,而包括拉里·埃里森、罗恩·巴伦和沙特阿拉伯王子阿尔·瓦利德在内的一批投资者朋友出资70亿美元。
在这篇帖子里,马斯克指责说:“美国反诽谤联盟似乎应该对我们大部分的收入损失负责。”他补充道:”我认为他们至少要对10%的价值破坏负责,所以大约是40亿美元。”按理说,马斯克所说的“价值”指的是完成收购整体支付的440亿美元,而不是股权部分。毕竟,如果你以44万美元的价格买了一栋房子,借了13万美元,并用现金支付了剩余的31万美元,而房价下跌了,你就会根据这栋房子现在的价格比44万美元低多少来计算“价值”的下跌。
根据马斯克的计算,美国反诽谤联盟仅凭一己之力就使X的“价值”蒸发了约40亿美元,而这40亿美元约占整个公司价值跌幅的10%。按此计算,总跌幅为400亿美元。由于马斯克和合作伙伴支付了440亿美元(包括债务),他的意思是,该平台现在将以40亿美元(440亿美元的收购价减去400亿美元的“价值破坏”)的价格易手,跌幅为90%。那么,马斯克其实是在说,他与合伙人投资的310亿美元股权已经完全不复存在,而华尔街精英们提供的一大部分债务也远在水面之下。
埃隆·马斯克真的认为X现在值40亿美元吗?也许不是。但他刚刚给自己本已陷入困境的品牌又造成了一次打击,这将进一步损害其在广告商心目中的地位。他的观点可能是:当你是受害者时,如果错误归咎于他人,夸大痛苦和抛出损失数字就是可以接受的。如果X确实经历了一场金融灾难,人们很可能就会忘记这些借口,而去审视其多情的唯一所有者所犯下的错误。(财富中文网)
译者:珠珠
Elon Musk says the most outrageous things. But the message he posted at 7:04 p.m. On Labor Day evening may rank as the most negative, in fact self-indicting, assessment a corporate leader has ever issued about their own enterprise.
Musk fired off this head-spinning salvo in his attack on the Anti-Defamation League, the Jewish-led organization civil rights organization. The ADL had strongly objected to virulently anti-Semitic tweets from far-right hate groups that X permitted on the platform. Musk charged that the ADL was “aggressive in their demands to ban social media accounts even for minor infractions,” and that the organization was “trying to kill X” by pressing advertisers to avoid the site. But the most mystifying feature wasn’t that, once again, Musk shot off his mouth and hit his foot, but that he actually put a number on the financial damage allegedly inflicted by the ADL that’s likely to floor his partners and lenders.
His astounding math applies to the present value of the business formerly known as Twitter. Musk’s said many times since he purchased the platform last October that its worth has plummeted, largely via a disastrous drop in ad revenue. Musk bought Twitter for $44 billion, funded $13 billion by loans from big-name commercial and investment banks, and $31 billion in equity. Of the latter portion, Musk contributed about $24 billion of his own cash, while a group of investor friends including Larry Ellison, Ron Baron, and Prince Al Waleed of Saudi Arabia provided $7 billion.
In the post, Musk charges that “ADL seems responsible for most of our revenue loss” and adds, “I don’t see any scenario where they’re responsible for less than 10% of the value destruction, so around $4 billion.” It’s logical to assume that by “value,” Musk means the $44 billion paid for the property, not the equity portion. After all, if you bought a house for $440,000, borrowed $130,000, and funded the remaining $310,000 in cash, and the price fell, you’d calculate the fall in “value” based in how much less than $440,000 the dwelling would fetch today.
In Musk’s reckoning, the ADL singlehandedly vaporized roughly $4 billion in X’s “value,” and that $4 billion accounts for around 10% of the entire decline in the franchise’s worth. That formula puts the total fall at $40 billion. Since Musk and partners paid $44 billion including debt, he’s implying that the platform would now change hands for $4 billion (the $44 billion purchase price minus the $40 billion in “value destruction”), for a drop of 90%. In effect, he’s saying that the $31 billion he and his partners invested in equity is totally gone, and a big portion of the debt from provided by the cream of Wall Street sits far underwater.
Does Elon Musk really believe that X is now worth $4 billion, as his scorching post suggests? Maybe not. But he’s just inflicted still another battering on his already beleaguered brand that will further undermine its standing in the eyes of advertisers. His view may be that it’s acceptable to exaggerate the pain and throw around numbers when you’re the victim, when it’s somebody else’s fault. If X indeed proves a financial cataclysm, people are likely to forget the excuses, and examine the careening missteps from its mercurial sole proprietor.