美联储(Federal Reserve)密切关注的一个通胀指标今年7月依旧维持在较低水平,这进一步表明物价上涨降温,并且使美联储在9月末的下一次会议上更有可能不调整利率。
美国商务部(Commerce Department)在8月31日的报告称,美国的物价从6月至7月仅上涨了0.2%,连续三个月小幅上涨。与一年前相比,7月物价上涨3.3%,6月的年度物价涨幅为3%。物价同比涨幅较一年前7%的最高点大幅下降,但依旧高于美联储2%的通胀目标。物价上涨的部分原因是一年前的物价涨幅更小。
从6月到7月,食品杂货成本仅上涨了0.2%,但同比上涨了3.5%。能源价格上涨了0.1%。
在最新物价数据公布之前,最近有其他报告证明美国经济和就业市场可能增速放缓,足以缓解通胀压力。例如,7月的招聘岗位数量减少,而且越来越少的美国人会为了更好的机会而选择辞职。这两个趋势缓解了公司为招聘和留住员工而提高工资的压力。如果公司采取这种做法,就会导致通货膨胀持续下去,因为雇主会提高价格抵消上涨的劳动力成本。
从6月到7月,不含容易波动的食品和能源价格的“核心”通胀仅上涨0.2%,与5月至6月涨幅持平。与一年前相比,核心物价上涨4.2%,略高于7月的4.1%。美联储的政策制定者们密切关注核心物价,将其作为预测未来通胀走向的警告信号。
8月31日发布的通货膨胀指标名为个人消费支出物价指数,它不同于广为人知的消费物价指数。8月早些时候,美国政府公布的7月消费物价指数同比上涨3.2%,较2022年6月的最高点9.1%大幅下降。
8月31日的报告还显示,7月,美国消费支出以健康的速度增长,从6月至7月增长0.8%,高于从5月到6月0.5%的涨幅。消费支出增长意味着在7月至9月的一个季度,美国经济正在稳步增长。
虽然消费支出是美国经济增长的主要动力,但美联储试图降低消费支出增长速度,以抑制通货膨胀。消费支出增长过快,可能迫使央行进一步加息。与此同时,美联储正在努力避免过度放慢经济增长速度,导致经济陷入严重衰退。
8月下旬,在美国怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔召开的央行年会上,美联储的主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在一次备受关注的讲话中强调了美国经济和通货膨胀的复杂动态。他强调,美联储将“慎重”考虑未来行动。
鲍威尔说:“但两个月的乐观数据只是开始,要让我们确信通货膨胀正在朝着我们的目标持续下降,还需要更多的数据。我们还无法确定通胀数据继续下降的程度。”
7月,欧洲的通货膨胀基本保持稳定,与美联储一样,欧洲央行(European Central Bank)正在解决在其9月召开的下一次会议上是否要提高关键利率这个问题。欧盟统计局(Eurostat)表示,7月,20个欧元国家的消费物价指数同比上涨5.3%,与6月持平。核心通胀从5.5%下降到5.3%。
美国银行研究所(Bank of America Institute)的数据显示,7月,美国消费支出在7月4日的美国国庆日期间大幅增长。美国银行研究所通过其信用卡和借记卡跟踪消费者活动。该研究所表示,7月中旬在线消费增长,原因可能是亚马逊(Amazon)的“Prime”会员日。7月晚些时候,娱乐支出大幅增长,这可能要得益于《芭比》(Barbie)和《奥本海默》(Oppenheimer)等电影大受欢迎。
这些趋势可能会使得人们在大型零售商那里的消费有所减少,包括梅西百货(Macy’s)、Foot Locker和科尔士百货(Kohl’s)在内的多家零售商均表示春季和夏初的销售额大幅下降。
但沃尔玛(Walmart)、TJ Maxx和Dollar Tree等多家折扣零售商的销售额出现增长。这意味着中低收入消费者感受到通货膨胀和借款成本上涨带来的压力,他们在尽量寻找便宜的商品,并且更专注于生活必需品消费。
经济学家和华尔街的交易商越来越相信,美联储的7月加息将是其今年的最后一次加息。但鲍威尔在8月下旬的讲话中警告,美联储会维持高基准利率,直到美联储确信通货膨胀已经得到控制。
美联储主席称,如果未来几个月经济增速没有放缓,可能就需要继续加息。(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
美联储(Federal Reserve)密切关注的一个通胀指标今年7月依旧维持在较低水平,这进一步表明物价上涨降温,并且使美联储在9月末的下一次会议上更有可能不调整利率。
美国商务部(Commerce Department)在8月31日的报告称,美国的物价从6月至7月仅上涨了0.2%,连续三个月小幅上涨。与一年前相比,7月物价上涨3.3%,6月的年度物价涨幅为3%。物价同比涨幅较一年前7%的最高点大幅下降,但依旧高于美联储2%的通胀目标。物价上涨的部分原因是一年前的物价涨幅更小。
从6月到7月,食品杂货成本仅上涨了0.2%,但同比上涨了3.5%。能源价格上涨了0.1%。
在最新物价数据公布之前,最近有其他报告证明美国经济和就业市场可能增速放缓,足以缓解通胀压力。例如,7月的招聘岗位数量减少,而且越来越少的美国人会为了更好的机会而选择辞职。这两个趋势缓解了公司为招聘和留住员工而提高工资的压力。如果公司采取这种做法,就会导致通货膨胀持续下去,因为雇主会提高价格抵消上涨的劳动力成本。
从6月到7月,不含容易波动的食品和能源价格的“核心”通胀仅上涨0.2%,与5月至6月涨幅持平。与一年前相比,核心物价上涨4.2%,略高于7月的4.1%。美联储的政策制定者们密切关注核心物价,将其作为预测未来通胀走向的警告信号。
8月31日发布的通货膨胀指标名为个人消费支出物价指数,它不同于广为人知的消费物价指数。8月早些时候,美国政府公布的7月消费物价指数同比上涨3.2%,较2022年6月的最高点9.1%大幅下降。
8月31日的报告还显示,7月,美国消费支出以健康的速度增长,从6月至7月增长0.8%,高于从5月到6月0.5%的涨幅。消费支出增长意味着在7月至9月的一个季度,美国经济正在稳步增长。
虽然消费支出是美国经济增长的主要动力,但美联储试图降低消费支出增长速度,以抑制通货膨胀。消费支出增长过快,可能迫使央行进一步加息。与此同时,美联储正在努力避免过度放慢经济增长速度,导致经济陷入严重衰退。
8月下旬,在美国怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔召开的央行年会上,美联储的主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在一次备受关注的讲话中强调了美国经济和通货膨胀的复杂动态。他强调,美联储将“慎重”考虑未来行动。
鲍威尔说:“但两个月的乐观数据只是开始,要让我们确信通货膨胀正在朝着我们的目标持续下降,还需要更多的数据。我们还无法确定通胀数据继续下降的程度。”
7月,欧洲的通货膨胀基本保持稳定,与美联储一样,欧洲央行(European Central Bank)正在解决在其9月召开的下一次会议上是否要提高关键利率这个问题。欧盟统计局(Eurostat)表示,7月,20个欧元国家的消费物价指数同比上涨5.3%,与6月持平。核心通胀从5.5%下降到5.3%。
美国银行研究所(Bank of America Institute)的数据显示,7月,美国消费支出在7月4日的美国国庆日期间大幅增长。美国银行研究所通过其信用卡和借记卡跟踪消费者活动。该研究所表示,7月中旬在线消费增长,原因可能是亚马逊(Amazon)的“Prime”会员日。7月晚些时候,娱乐支出大幅增长,这可能要得益于《芭比》(Barbie)和《奥本海默》(Oppenheimer)等电影大受欢迎。
这些趋势可能会使得人们在大型零售商那里的消费有所减少,包括梅西百货(Macy’s)、Foot Locker和科尔士百货(Kohl’s)在内的多家零售商均表示春季和夏初的销售额大幅下降。
但沃尔玛(Walmart)、TJ Maxx和Dollar Tree等多家折扣零售商的销售额出现增长。这意味着中低收入消费者感受到通货膨胀和借款成本上涨带来的压力,他们在尽量寻找便宜的商品,并且更专注于生活必需品消费。
经济学家和华尔街的交易商越来越相信,美联储的7月加息将是其今年的最后一次加息。但鲍威尔在8月下旬的讲话中警告,美联储会维持高基准利率,直到美联储确信通货膨胀已经得到控制。
美联储主席称,如果未来几个月经济增速没有放缓,可能就需要继续加息。(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
An inflation gauge closely tracked by the Federal Reserve remained low in July, adding to signs of cooling price increases and raising the likelihood that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged when it next meets in late September.
August 31’s report from the Commerce Department showed that prices rose just 0.2% from June to July, the third straight modest increase. Compared with a year earlier, prices rose 3.3% in July, up from a 3% annual increase in June. The year-over-year figure, though, is down sharply from the 7% peak it reached a year ago, though still above the Fed’s 2% inflation target. It rose partly because of much smaller price increases a year ago.
Among individual items, the cost of groceries rose just 0.2% from June to July, though they’re up 3.5% over the past year. Energy prices ticked up 0.1%.
The latest data follows other recent reports that suggest the economy and the job market may be slowing enough to cool inflation pressures. The number of advertised job openings, for example, tumbled in July, and fewer Americans are quitting their jobs to seek better opportunities. Both trends ease the pressure on companies to raise pay to find and keep workers — a move that tends to perpetuate inflation as employers raise prices to offset their higher labor costs.
Excluding volatile food and energy prices, “core” inflation ticked up just 0.2% from June to July, the same as from May to June. Compared with a year earlier, core prices rose 4.2%, up slightly from 4.1% in July. The Fed’s policymakers closely monitor core prices as a telltale signal of where inflation might be headed.
The inflation gauge that was issued on August 31, called the personal consumption expenditures price index, is separate from the better-known consumer price index. Earlier August, the government reported that the CPI rose 3.2% in July from a year earlier, down from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022.
August 31’s report also showed that Americans spent more in July, with consumer spending rising a healthy 0.8% from June to July, up from a 0.5% gain from May to June. The increase suggests that the U.S. economy is growing at a solid pace in the current July-September quarter.
Though consumer spending drives most of the U.S. economy, the Fed is seeking to slow it down as a way to restrain inflation. Too fast an acceleration of spending could lead the central bank to raise rates even further. At the same time, the Fed is trying to avoid slowing the economy so much as to cause a deep recession.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell underscored the tricky dynamics surrounding the economy and inflation in a high-profile speech in late August at an annual conference of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. He stressed that the Fed would “proceed carefully” as it considers its next moves.
“Two months of good data,” Powell said, “are only the beginning of what it will take to build confidence that inflation is moving down sustainably toward our goal. We can’t yet know the extent to which these lower readings will continue.”
In Europe, inflation largely held steady in July at a time when the European Central Bank, like the Fed, is grappling with whether to raise its key interest rate at its next meeting in September. The consumer price index for the 20 countries that use the euro currency rose 5.3% in July from a year earlier, the same as for June, the EU statistics agency Eurostat said. Core inflation eased from 5.5% to 5.3%.
In the United States, spending in July jumped around the July 4th holiday, according to data from the Bank of America Institute, which tracks consumer activity through its credit and debit cards. And a pickup in online spending occurred in mid-month, likely because of Amazon’s “prime” shopping day, the institute said. Later in the month, entertainment spending surged, probably reflecting the popularity of the “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” movie releases.
Those trends likely pulled some spending away from major retailers, some of which reported sharp sales declines in the spring and early summer, including Macy’s, Foot Locker and Kohl’s.
Yet many discount retailers, including Walmart, TJ Maxx and Dollar Tree, reported growing sales. That suggested that lower- and middle-income shoppers, feeling squeezed by inflation and higher borrowing costs, are seeking out bargains and focusing more on necessities.
Economists and Wall Street traders increasingly believe the Fed’s rate hike in July will turn out to be its last this year. In his speech in late July, though, Powell warned that the Fed would keep its benchmark rate elevated until it was confident that inflation was under control.
And if the economy didn’t slow in the coming months, the Fed chair said, additional rate hikes might be needed.