传奇投资者杰里米·格兰瑟姆曾准确预测多次事件,但他未能预见到特斯拉及其首席执行官埃隆·马斯克会大获成功。
格兰瑟姆是投资管理公司GMO的联合创始人,他在上周五的The Compound & Friends播客节目中讲述了他称之为“我最喜欢的失败者故事”。
虽然他在2019年买了一辆红色特斯拉,并在当时的季度信中写道,这辆车“驾驶体验绝佳”,“我和我妻子从未体验过这样的产品”,但他认为该公司的股票却是“另外一回事了”,而且“贵得离谱”。但他说,从那天起,特斯拉的股价上涨了10倍。
格兰瑟姆解释说,当他写这封信的时候,特斯拉“没有任何盈利,看起来也不像会有盈利。”事实上,看起来都不确定两年后,特斯拉是否还会存活下来。当时该公司面临资金紧张的局面。
至于马斯克是如何做到这一点的,格兰瑟姆表示,这位特斯拉首席执行官“是一位杰出的宣传家,他在任何可能的意外情况出现之前就靠炒作把股票推高了,然后卖出了大量股票。” 由此,获得了大量资产。再次把股票炒高。他反复出售大量资产,直到凭空获得了强大的实际购买力,并将其直接投入到巨型工厂中。”
特斯拉于2016年在内华达州建成了第一家超级工厂,随后在纽约、上海、柏林、德克萨斯州和其他地方也相继建成了超级工厂。
格兰瑟姆补充说:“在胡说八道和个人魅力的加持下,他凭空创造了资金,这样的管理堪称奇迹。”
他指出,就在三年前,人们还不屑提及特斯拉。
他说:“批评人士说,你只需要等大众汽车(VW)和通用汽车(GM)做好准备,这些新公司就岌岌可危了,因为你把那些几十年来生产大量汽车的公司和这些新手相提并论。三年后,你只能听到特斯拉在拍大众汽车和通用汽车的马屁。这太不可思议了。”
格兰瑟姆因预测了2001年的互联网泡沫破裂和2008年的全球金融危机而声名鹊起。但他也有失误的时候,或者说,他并不总能准确把握事情发生的时机。2022年7月,他曾对美国股市和房地产市场的“超级泡沫”发出警告,并称标准普尔500指数的公允价值“非常接近3000点”,而当时的公允价值为3970点。
他表示:“没有事物可以阻止市场跌破公允价值。它当然有资格维持在3000点以下长达数月。”
当然,大部分时间标准普尔500指数都在4000点以上,这意味着任何根据他的预测进行投资的人都会赔钱。但正如他当时所说,“这一过程可能很短暂,比如六个月。也可能像2000年那样拖得很长,需要差不多三年时间。你无法真正知道这一过程是会很短暂还是会很长。”
在播客节目中,当被问及我们是否处于一个“大泡沫”中时,他加倍肯定了自己的预测,回答说:“是的,当然。”(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
传奇投资者杰里米·格兰瑟姆曾准确预测多次事件,但他未能预见到特斯拉及其首席执行官埃隆·马斯克会大获成功。
格兰瑟姆是投资管理公司GMO的联合创始人,他在上周五的The Compound & Friends播客节目中讲述了他称之为“我最喜欢的失败者故事”。
虽然他在2019年买了一辆红色特斯拉,并在当时的季度信中写道,这辆车“驾驶体验绝佳”,“我和我妻子从未体验过这样的产品”,但他认为该公司的股票却是“另外一回事了”,而且“贵得离谱”。但他说,从那天起,特斯拉的股价上涨了10倍。
格兰瑟姆解释说,当他写这封信的时候,特斯拉“没有任何盈利,看起来也不像会有盈利。”事实上,看起来都不确定两年后,特斯拉是否还会存活下来。当时该公司面临资金紧张的局面。
至于马斯克是如何做到这一点的,格兰瑟姆表示,这位特斯拉首席执行官“是一位杰出的宣传家,他在任何可能的意外情况出现之前就靠炒作把股票推高了,然后卖出了大量股票。” 由此,获得了大量资产。再次把股票炒高。他反复出售大量资产,直到凭空获得了强大的实际购买力,并将其直接投入到巨型工厂中。”
特斯拉于2016年在内华达州建成了第一家超级工厂,随后在纽约、上海、柏林、德克萨斯州和其他地方也相继建成了超级工厂。
格兰瑟姆补充说:“在胡说八道和个人魅力的加持下,他凭空创造了资金,这样的管理堪称奇迹。”
他指出,就在三年前,人们还不屑提及特斯拉。
他说:“批评人士说,你只需要等大众汽车(VW)和通用汽车(GM)做好准备,这些新公司就岌岌可危了,因为你把那些几十年来生产大量汽车的公司和这些新手相提并论。三年后,你只能听到特斯拉在拍大众汽车和通用汽车的马屁。这太不可思议了。”
格兰瑟姆因预测了2001年的互联网泡沫破裂和2008年的全球金融危机而声名鹊起。但他也有失误的时候,或者说,他并不总能准确把握事情发生的时机。2022年7月,他曾对美国股市和房地产市场的“超级泡沫”发出警告,并称标准普尔500指数的公允价值“非常接近3000点”,而当时的公允价值为3970点。
他表示:“没有事物可以阻止市场跌破公允价值。它当然有资格维持在3000点以下长达数月。”
当然,大部分时间标准普尔500指数都在4000点以上,这意味着任何根据他的预测进行投资的人都会赔钱。但正如他当时所说,“这一过程可能很短暂,比如六个月。也可能像2000年那样拖得很长,需要差不多三年时间。你无法真正知道这一过程是会很短暂还是会很长。”
在播客节目中,当被问及我们是否处于一个“大泡沫”中时,他加倍肯定了自己的预测,回答说:“是的,当然。”(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham has made plenty of good bets in his time, but he did not foresee the success that Tesla and its CEO Elon Musk would have.
Grantham, a cofounder of investment management company GMO, recounted what he described as “my favorite loser story” on a Friday episode of The Compound & Friends podcast
While he bought a red Tesla in 2019 and, in a quarterly letter at the time, wrote the car was “terrific” and “unlike anything my wife or I had ever come across,” he considered the company’s stock to be a “different story” and “incredibly expensive.” But from that day on, he said, Tesla’s shares rose 10-fold.
Grantham explained that when he wrote the letter, Tesla “didn’t have any earnings, it didn’t look like it might have any earnings. In fact, it looked quite uncertain it would exist in two years. They had a cash crunch.”
As for how Musk pulled it off, Grantham said the Tesla CEO “was such a wonderful propagandist that he talked the stock up way ahead of any possibility, and then he sold lots of stock. Got a lot of assets. Talked the stock up again. Sold a lot of assets over and over again until he had generated out of thin air a massive amount of real buying power which went straight into these megafactories.”
Tesla completed its first gigafactory in 2016 in Nevada, followed by ones in New York, Shanghai, Berlin, Texas, and elsewhere.
Grantham added, “it was almost miraculous management generating the money out of thin air, out of bullshit and charisma.”
He noted that even just three years ago, it was easy to dismiss Tesla.
“All you had to do, said the critics, was wait until VW and GM gear up, and they’re toast, because you’re comparing people with decades and decades of grinding out vast volumes with these newbies,” he said. “Three years later, all you can hear is the sound of Tesla kicking their bottoms. It is amazing.”
Grantham made his name predicting the dotcom crash of 2001 and the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. But he hasn’t always been right, or perhaps he hasn’t always gotten the timing of things right. In July of 2022, having warned about a “superbubble” in U.S. stocks and the housing market, he said the S&P 500’s fair value was “pretty close to 3,000,” as opposed to 3,970 at the time.
“There is absolutely nothing to stop the market from going below fair value,” he said. “It’s certainly entitled to spend several months below 3,000.”
Of course, the S&P 500 has spent much of the time since above 4,000, meaning anyone who had invested based on his prediction would have lost money. But as he also said at the time, “This can be quick, like six months. Or it can be drawn out like in 2000, which took almost three years. You can’t really know if it’s going to be quick or long.”
Asked on the podcast whether we’re in a “big bubble,” he doubled down on his prediction and replied, “Yes, of course.”