首页 500强 活动 榜单 商业 科技 领导力 专题 品牌中心
杂志订阅

欧洲奢侈品对投资者失去吸引力,股价创下 2020 年以来最大跌幅

PRARTHANA PRAKASH
2023-10-12

这个欧洲最赚钱的行业之一可能再次面临压力。

文本设置
小号
默认
大号
Plus(0条)

图为 2023 年 4 月,奢侈品集团 LVMH 旗下的一家路易威登专卖店。

在投资者对于市场从新冠时期的低迷中反弹的满心期盼下,奢侈品股票在2023 年初的走势有所抬头,然而今天,这个欧洲最赚钱的行业之一可能再次面临压力。

据路透社周一报道,包括法国威酩轩集团(LVMH)、意大利汽车制造商法拉利(Ferrari)和英国品牌巴宝莉(Burberry)等在内的STOXX欧洲奢侈品10指数录得2020年以来的最大季度跌幅。在一份关于9月指数新闻的报告中,STOXX指出,在从全球健康到电动汽车的各种主题指数中,奢侈品指数是 "表现最差的"。

奢侈品指数是STOXX作为欧洲全市场指数(STOXX Europe Total Market Index)的一个子集,近来遭受了经济不确定性的影响,包括通胀飙升、利率升高以及中国经济增长放缓。

盛宝银行(Saxo Bank)股票策略主管彼得·加恩里(Peter Garnry)告诉路透社:”欧洲奢侈品股票近期的下跌反映了欧洲经济的不确定性,以及不甚明朗的中国经济增长前景。”该媒体指出,自 3 月底以来,这个由10 只股票组成的指数组的市值已经缩水了约 1750 亿美元。

从路威酩轩到开云集团等奢侈品巨头都将在未来几周内公布季度业绩,以奢侈品为重点的这一指数的表现令人黯然神伤。

包括 STOXX 欧洲奢侈品 10 指数在内的一些公司已经敲响了警钟,指出被抑制的消费活动叠加经济动荡导致的需求低迷可能会威胁到奢侈品市场。例如,上个月,拥有卡地亚品牌的奢侈品控股公司历峰集团(Richemont)董事长约翰·鲁珀(Johann Ruper)就表示,高通胀正在影响欧洲对奢侈品的需求。他的言论引发了市场上高达 250 亿美元的奢侈品股票遭到抛售。

瑞银分析师上周在《财富》杂志浏览的一份报告中写道:“尽管最近投资者对(欧洲奢侈品)行业很感兴趣,但大多数人还是会希望看到更清晰的2024展望,才会决定是否投资一些最优质的品牌。”

新冠期间的奢侈品库存

新冠疫情爆发后,越来越多的人只能待在家里,无法像以前那样到实体店购物,使奢侈品市场规模迅速下降。突如其来的冲击造成整个行业的全球价值倒退了五年,回到了2015年的水平。

但随着时间的推移,那些富裕的消费者找到了将资金重新投入奢侈商品和奢侈体验的方式。LVMH集团等公司从奢侈品消费回流中获得了丰厚的收益,而这一趋势也在今年早些时候将该公司首席执行官伯纳德·阿诺特(Bernard Arnault)的财富推高至2000多亿美元,使他短暂地成为世界首富。

投资者寄希望于中国在严格的新冠清零政策之后重新开放,从而使全球的奢侈品市场整体复苏,但这个过程并未如人们希望的那样顺利。

近几个月来,顽固的通货膨胀和其他影响需求的经济压力使得奢侈品行业步履艰难。各大银行预计今年美国和欧洲对奢侈品的需求将下降,这表明随着消费者收紧钱袋,他们的消费行为也将发生转变。两年半来一直占据欧洲最有价值公司榜首的路威酩轩被丹麦制药公司诺和诺德(Novo Nordisk)取而代之,这进一步让投资者对奢侈品股票的发展方向感到震惊。根据彭博亿万富翁指数(Bloomberg Billionaires Index),阿尔诺的财富值也缩水到1690亿美元。

尽管一系列因素似乎使得奢侈品支出的前景不那么乐观,但投资者仍在密切关注第三季度业绩,以更好地对来年作出预期判断。

瑞士联合银行(United Bank of Switzerland)分析师也强调,第三季度的业绩将有助于“理解”中国销售放缓对整个奢侈品行业的“影响程度“,让“2024年变得更加清晰可见”。(财富中文网)

译者:傲诗

在投资者对于市场从新冠时期的低迷中反弹的满心期盼下,奢侈品股票在2023 年初的走势有所抬头,然而今天,这个欧洲最赚钱的行业之一可能再次面临压力。

据路透社周一报道,包括法国威酩轩集团(LVMH)、意大利汽车制造商法拉利(Ferrari)和英国品牌巴宝莉(Burberry)等在内的STOXX欧洲奢侈品10指数录得2020年以来的最大季度跌幅。在一份关于9月指数新闻的报告中,STOXX指出,在从全球健康到电动汽车的各种主题指数中,奢侈品指数是 "表现最差的"。

奢侈品指数是STOXX作为欧洲全市场指数(STOXX Europe Total Market Index)的一个子集,近来遭受了经济不确定性的影响,包括通胀飙升、利率升高以及中国经济增长放缓。

盛宝银行(Saxo Bank)股票策略主管彼得·加恩里(Peter Garnry)告诉路透社:”欧洲奢侈品股票近期的下跌反映了欧洲经济的不确定性,以及不甚明朗的中国经济增长前景。”该媒体指出,自 3 月底以来,这个由10 只股票组成的指数组的市值已经缩水了约 1750 亿美元。

从路威酩轩到开云集团等奢侈品巨头都将在未来几周内公布季度业绩,以奢侈品为重点的这一指数的表现令人黯然神伤。

包括 STOXX 欧洲奢侈品 10 指数在内的一些公司已经敲响了警钟,指出被抑制的消费活动叠加经济动荡导致的需求低迷可能会威胁到奢侈品市场。例如,上个月,拥有卡地亚品牌的奢侈品控股公司历峰集团(Richemont)董事长约翰·鲁珀(Johann Ruper)就表示,高通胀正在影响欧洲对奢侈品的需求。他的言论引发了市场上高达 250 亿美元的奢侈品股票遭到抛售。

瑞银分析师上周在《财富》杂志浏览的一份报告中写道:“尽管最近投资者对(欧洲奢侈品)行业很感兴趣,但大多数人还是会希望看到更清晰的2024展望,才会决定是否投资一些最优质的品牌。”

新冠期间的奢侈品库存

新冠疫情爆发后,越来越多的人只能待在家里,无法像以前那样到实体店购物,使奢侈品市场规模迅速下降。突如其来的冲击造成整个行业的全球价值倒退了五年,回到了2015年的水平。

但随着时间的推移,那些富裕的消费者找到了将资金重新投入奢侈商品和奢侈体验的方式。LVMH集团等公司从奢侈品消费回流中获得了丰厚的收益,而这一趋势也在今年早些时候将该公司首席执行官伯纳德·阿诺特(Bernard Arnault)的财富推高至2000多亿美元,使他短暂地成为世界首富。

投资者寄希望于中国在严格的新冠清零政策之后重新开放,从而使全球的奢侈品市场整体复苏,但这个过程并未如人们希望的那样顺利。

近几个月来,顽固的通货膨胀和其他影响需求的经济压力使得奢侈品行业步履艰难。各大银行预计今年美国和欧洲对奢侈品的需求将下降,这表明随着消费者收紧钱袋,他们的消费行为也将发生转变。两年半来一直占据欧洲最有价值公司榜首的路威酩轩被丹麦制药公司诺和诺德(Novo Nordisk)取而代之,这进一步让投资者对奢侈品股票的发展方向感到震惊。根据彭博亿万富翁指数(Bloomberg Billionaires Index),阿尔诺的财富值也缩水到1690亿美元。

尽管一系列因素似乎使得奢侈品支出的前景不那么乐观,但投资者仍在密切关注第三季度业绩,以更好地对来年作出预期判断。

瑞士联合银行(United Bank of Switzerland)分析师也强调,第三季度的业绩将有助于“理解”中国销售放缓对整个奢侈品行业的“影响程度“,让“2024年变得更加清晰可见”。(财富中文网)

译者:傲诗

Following a surge in luxury stocks in early 2023 amid hopes of a bounce-back from the pandemic-era slump, one of Europe’s most lucrative industries may be under pressure once again.

The STOXX Europe Luxury 10 index, which includes the likes of French conglomerate LVMH, Italian automaker Ferrari, and British brand Burberry, recorded its biggest quarterly decline since 2020, Reuters reported Monday. In a report with monthly index news for September, STOXX noted that the luxury bundle was the “worst-performing” among thematic gauges, which can range from global health to electric vehicles.

The luxury index, which is a subset of the larger STOXX Europe Total Market Index, has been impacted by economic uncertainties including soaring inflation and elevated interest rates, as well as slow growth in China.

“The recent decline in European luxury stocks reflects the uncertainty over the European economy and also the uneven growth outlook for the Chinese economy,” Peter Garnry, Saxo Bank’s head of equity strategy, told Reuters. The outlet noted that about $175 billion had been wiped out from the set of 10 stocks since the end of March.

The performance of the luxury-focused index sets off a bleak picture as luxury giants from LVMH to Kering are expected to announce their quarterly results in the coming weeks.

Some companies, including those in the STOXX Europe Luxury 10 index, have sounded the alarm on how poor demand due to suppressed spending activity and economic turbulence could threaten the luxury market. For instance, last month Johann Ruper, chairman of luxury holdings company Richemont, which owns Cartier, remarked that high inflation was throwing a wrench in European demand for luxury goods. His comments prompted a sell-off worth as much as $25 billion in market value in luxury stocks.

“Despite a lot of interest in the [European luxury] sector lately, most investors may want to have more clarity around next year’s estimates to step into some of the highest quality names,” UBS analysts wrote last week in a note viewed by Fortune.

Luxury stocks during the pandemic

The onset of COVID-19 saw a quick decline in the size of the luxury goods market as more people were confined to their homes and unable to shop at physical stores as before. The sudden shock set the industry back by five years to its global value in 2015.

But with time, affluent consumers found ways to pour money back into luxury products and experiences. Companies like LVMH gained handsomely from the return of luxury spending—and the trend helped push up CEO Bernard Arnault’s wealth to over $200 billion earlier this year, briefly making him the world’s richest man.

Investors were betting on China’s reopening following a strict COVID-zero policy to fuel the remainder of the luxury market’s recovery—except that didn’t quite pan out the way people hoped.

Stubborn inflation and other economic pressures impacting demand have made the luxury industry forge a rocky path in recent months. Banks have forecasted the appetite for luxury goods to decline through this year in the U.S. and in Europe, a sign of the shift in consumer spending behavior as they tighten their purse strings. And LVMH, which had occupied the position of Europe’s most valuable company for two-and-a-half years was dethroned by Danish pharma company Novo Nordisk, spooking investors further about the direction luxury stocks are heading. Arnault’s wealth has also dropped to $169 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

Although a confluence of factors seem to be dampening the outlook on luxury spending, investors are closely watching for the third quarter results to better gauge what to expect for the upcoming year.

UBS analysts also emphasized that Q3 results would help “understand the extent” to which slower sales in China could impact the entire luxury sector, offering “more visibility into 2024.”

财富中文网所刊载内容之知识产权为财富媒体知识产权有限公司及/或相关权利人专属所有或持有。未经许可,禁止进行转载、摘编、复制及建立镜像等任何使用。
0条Plus
精彩评论
评论

撰写或查看更多评论

请打开财富Plus APP

前往打开