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美联储主席对通胀的看法似乎并不令人信服

从2022年3月开始,美联储的通胀斗士们以40年来最快的速度提高了基准利率。

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美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周四表示,通胀率仍然过高,要将其降至美联储的目标水平,可能需要经济增速放缓和就业市场降温。

鲍威尔指出,通胀已较一年前大幅降温。但他警告说,目前尚不清楚通胀是否正在稳步回归到美联储2%的通胀目标。

鲍威尔在对纽约经济俱乐部(Economic Club of New York)发表讲话时说:“数个月的良好数据仅仅是建立信心,并让我们相信通胀正朝着目标水平持续下降的开端。我们还不知道这些较低的读数会持续多久,也不知道未来几个季度的通胀会稳定在什么水平。"

上个月,美联储官员预测,他们将在今年年底前再加息一次,在此之前,美联储已连续加息11次,将基准利率提升至约5.4%,为22年来的最高水平。经济学家和华尔街交易员预计,美联储将在两周后的下次会议上维持利率不变。

至于美联储之后会采取什么行动,则不太清楚。鲍威尔在周四的讲话中呼应了其他美联储官员的观点,暗示美国经济正处于转折点:如果经济增长仍像今年夏天以来那样强劲,可能需要进一步加息。但是,任何经济增长或就业放缓的迹象都可能有助于减缓通胀,使美联储能够维持利率不变。

从2022年3月开始,美联储的通胀斗士们以40年来最快的速度提高了基准利率。这些加息导致整个经济体的借贷利率大幅上升,加大了家庭和企业的财务压力。

多位美联储官员最近暗示,长期利率(包括30年期固定抵押贷款的平均利率目前已接近8%)的快速上调很可能会使经济降温,并有助于减缓通胀。这将使美联储能够按兵不动,观察未来几个月经济增长和通胀的变化情况。

但最近的几份经济报告显示,经济仍在强劲增长,通胀可能持续走高,这可能需要美联储采取进一步行动。

鲍威尔说:"有更多证据表明,经济增长持续高于趋势水平,或是劳动力市场的紧张状况依旧,这可能使通胀面临持续走高的风险,可能需要进一步收紧货币政策。"

9月份,招聘人数远高于预期,失业率保持在近半个世纪以来的低点。强劲的招聘通常使员工有能力要求加薪,如果雇主通过提高产品价格来转嫁更高的劳动力成本,这反过来可能会加剧通货膨胀。

然而,鲍威尔指出,到目前为止,工资增长已经放缓。其他衡量就业市场的指标也在降温,这一趋势可能会抑制通胀。事实上,即使经济稳定增长,通胀也在很大程度上有所放缓:美联储重点关注的物价变化指标9月份同比下降至3.5%,与2022年6月7%的同比峰值相比大幅下降。

周三,一位颇具影响力的美联储委员会成员克里斯托弗·沃勒(Christopher Waller)表示,在保持经济环境平稳健康的情况下,通胀放缓是"好消息",但也"好得令人难以置信"。他指出,经济增长要么放缓,帮助抑制通胀,要么保持强劲增长势头,推动通胀上升,从而需要美联储进一步加息以遏制通胀。

沃勒说:“现在下结论还为时过早。我相信我们可以等待,观察经济如何发展,然后再采取明确的措施。”(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周四表示,通胀率仍然过高,要将其降至美联储的目标水平,可能需要经济增速放缓和就业市场降温。

鲍威尔指出,通胀已较一年前大幅降温。但他警告说,目前尚不清楚通胀是否正在稳步回归到美联储2%的通胀目标。

鲍威尔在对纽约经济俱乐部(Economic Club of New York)发表讲话时说:“数个月的良好数据仅仅是建立信心,并让我们相信通胀正朝着目标水平持续下降的开端。我们还不知道这些较低的读数会持续多久,也不知道未来几个季度的通胀会稳定在什么水平。"

上个月,美联储官员预测,他们将在今年年底前再加息一次,在此之前,美联储已连续加息11次,将基准利率提升至约5.4%,为22年来的最高水平。经济学家和华尔街交易员预计,美联储将在两周后的下次会议上维持利率不变。

至于美联储之后会采取什么行动,则不太清楚。鲍威尔在周四的讲话中呼应了其他美联储官员的观点,暗示美国经济正处于转折点:如果经济增长仍像今年夏天以来那样强劲,可能需要进一步加息。但是,任何经济增长或就业放缓的迹象都可能有助于减缓通胀,使美联储能够维持利率不变。

从2022年3月开始,美联储的通胀斗士们以40年来最快的速度提高了基准利率。这些加息导致整个经济体的借贷利率大幅上升,加大了家庭和企业的财务压力。

多位美联储官员最近暗示,长期利率(包括30年期固定抵押贷款的平均利率目前已接近8%)的快速上调很可能会使经济降温,并有助于减缓通胀。这将使美联储能够按兵不动,观察未来几个月经济增长和通胀的变化情况。

但最近的几份经济报告显示,经济仍在强劲增长,通胀可能持续走高,这可能需要美联储采取进一步行动。

鲍威尔说:"有更多证据表明,经济增长持续高于趋势水平,或是劳动力市场的紧张状况依旧,这可能使通胀面临持续走高的风险,可能需要进一步收紧货币政策。"

9月份,招聘人数远高于预期,失业率保持在近半个世纪以来的低点。强劲的招聘通常使员工有能力要求加薪,如果雇主通过提高产品价格来转嫁更高的劳动力成本,这反过来可能会加剧通货膨胀。

然而,鲍威尔指出,到目前为止,工资增长已经放缓。其他衡量就业市场的指标也在降温,这一趋势可能会抑制通胀。事实上,即使经济稳定增长,通胀也在很大程度上有所放缓:美联储重点关注的物价变化指标9月份同比下降至3.5%,与2022年6月7%的同比峰值相比大幅下降。

周三,一位颇具影响力的美联储委员会成员克里斯托弗·沃勒(Christopher Waller)表示,在保持经济环境平稳健康的情况下,通胀放缓是"好消息",但也"好得令人难以置信"。他指出,经济增长要么放缓,帮助抑制通胀,要么保持强劲增长势头,推动通胀上升,从而需要美联储进一步加息以遏制通胀。

沃勒说:“现在下结论还为时过早。我相信我们可以等待,观察经济如何发展,然后再采取明确的措施。”(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Thursday that inflation remains too high and that bringing it down to the Fed’s target level will likely require a slower-growing economy and job market.

Powell noted that inflation has cooled significantly from a year ago. But he cautioned that it’s not yet clear whether inflation is on a steady path back to the Fed’s 2% target.

“A few months of good data are only the beginning of what it will take to build confidence that inflation is moving down sustainably toward our goal,” Powell said in remarks to the Economic Club of New York. “We cannot yet know how long these lower readings will persist or where inflation will settle over coming quarters.”

Last month, Fed officials predicted that they would impose one more interest rate hike before the end of the year, on top of a series of 11 rate increases that have lifted their key rate to about 5.4%, its highest level in 22 years. Economists and Wall Street traders expect the central bank to leave rates unchanged when it next meets in about two weeks.

What it will do after that is less clear. In his remarks Thursday, Powell echoed other Fed officials in suggesting that the economy is at a turning point: If growth remains as healthy as it has been since this summer, additional rate hikes could be needed. But any sign of weaker growth or hiring could help slow inflation and allow the Fed to keep rates unchanged.

Beginning in March 2022, the Fed’s inflation fighters have raised their benchmark rate at the fastest pace in four decades. Those rate hikes have led to much higher borrowing rates across the economy, tightening the financial pressures on households and companies.

A string of Fed officials have recently signaled that a rapid increase in longer-term rates, including for the average 30-year fixed mortgage, which is nearing 8%, will likely cool the economy and help slow inflation. This would allow the central bank to stay on hold and observe how growth and inflation evolve in the coming months.

But several recent economic reports have suggested that the economy is still growing robustly and that inflation could remain persistently elevated, which could require further Fed action.

“Additional evidence of persistently above-trend growth, or that tightness in the labor market is no longer easing,” Powell said, “could put further progress on inflation at risk and could warrant further tightening of monetary policy.”

In September, hiring was much greater than had been expected, with the unemployment rate staying near a half-century low. Strong hiring typically empowers workers to demand higher wages, which, in turn, can worsen inflation if their employers pass on the higher labor costs by raising their prices.

Yet so far, Powell noted that wage growth has slowed. Other measures of the job market are also cooling, a trend that could keep inflation contained. Indeed, even with solid economic growth, inflation has largely decelerated: The Fed’s preferred measure of price changes eased to 3.5% in September compared with 12 months earlier, down sharply from a year-over-year peak of 7% in June 2022.

On Wednesday, Christopher Waller, an influential member of the Fed’s governing board, suggested that the slowdown in inflation even as the economy has remained healthy is “great news” but also “a little too good to be true.” He noted that growth could either slow, helping cool inflation, or remain strong, fueling higher inflation and requiring further rate hikes by the Fed to contain it.

“It is too soon to tell,” Waller said. “I believe we can wait, watch and see how the economy evolves before making definitive moves.”

财富中文网所刊载内容之知识产权为财富媒体知识产权有限公司及/或相关权利人专属所有或持有。未经许可,禁止进行转载、摘编、复制及建立镜像等任何使用。
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