也许你不知道房地产市场已经变得多么难以负担。根据Redfin的一份新报告,美国人如今需要有超过六位数的收入才能买得起一套中等价位的房子。可以说,这样的收入比美国人的平均收入要高得多。
这家房地产经纪和研究公司表示,潜在购房者每年需要赚到11.4627万美元才能负担得起一套房。该数字同比增长15%,为有史以来购房者需达到的最高年收入。这是一个问题,毕竟2022年美国的家庭收入中位数是7.458万美元——离实现Redfin得出的目标收入还差4万美元。(Redfin的报告考虑了收入、平均月供和当前的房贷利率。)
而这甚至还没有考虑地区差异,换句话说,没有考虑纽约市等以物价高著称的市场。如果你想在哥谭市(纽约市的别称)租一套公寓,大多数房东会要求你的年收入至少达到月租的40到45倍。
苏富比International-Montecito的房地产经纪人莫琳·麦克德穆特(Maureen McDermut)对《财富》杂志表示:“虽然在美国购买中等价位房屋所需的收入高于普遍美国家庭的平均收入,但目前在大多数市场上,租房和租公寓的成本其实更高。纽约、芝加哥和洛杉矶的房屋租金都出现了大幅上涨。”(麦克德穆特在洛杉矶从事了20年的商业房地产销售职业。)
再者,麦克德穆特说,“实际上,从长远来看,租房的成本通常还会更高,因为它会带来机会成本(租房者无法积累资产或财富)。”
“租房者和购房者均受到了影响”
这与你的工资(通常是税前工资)和你在租赁市场上需要支付的现金之间的差距有关。例如,在2020年12月,纽约的潜在租房者每月需要赚取1万美元以上(税前),才能负担得起当时3100美元的中等租金。然而,时间快进到今天,曼哈顿的平均月租在今年夏天创下了4400美元的历史新高,这意味着租房者需要达到17.6万美元(税前)的年收入才有资格租房。
纽约房地产分析公司UrbanDigs的联合创始人约翰·沃尔克普在接受《财富》杂志采访时表示:“这一发展轨迹与购房领域的趋势同时出现,突显了一个更广泛的主题:住房成本日益增长。租金与房价一样呈上升趋势,这显现出租房者和购房者均受到了影响。”
当然,应该注意的是,像纽约这类城市的案例是租金的极端例子。Redfin的首席经济学家达丽尔·费尔韦瑟告诉《财富》杂志,从月供的角度来看,整体而言,“在大多数大都市地区,租房都要比贷款买房更实惠。”事实上,按照Redfin的定义,只有在四个主要的美国市场中,买房比租房更便宜:底特律、费城、克利夫兰和休斯敦。
住房负担能力的压力主要是由房贷利率(周三刚刚达到8%)和房价(今年迄今已上涨5%)的上涨造成的。
事实上,随着房贷利率突破7%和房价今年迄今上涨逾5%,美国的住房负担能力现在已经达到本世纪的最低水平。Redfin的数据显示,购房者的月供已创下历史新高,超过2800美元。
然而,截至7月,有四分之一的美国房主每月需要支付超过3000美元的房贷,这使得他们中的许多人成为了“房奴”。与此同时,根据经济数据公司CEIC的数据,2023年7月美国人的平均月收入仅为4600美元。这意味着一些房主可能要将薪水的60%以上用于偿还房贷——远高于他们可负担的水平。费尔韦瑟表示:“购房者的‘住房支出不超过其收入的30%’,他们的月供才会被视为负担得起。”
Redfin的经济研究主管Chen Zhao在一份声明中表示:“在购房者的理想状态中,房贷利率的上涨会推动住房需求和房价下降到足够低的水平,可以弥补利息增加带来的影响。但现在的情况并非如此。尽管新房源的数量略有上升,但由于房主不愿放弃较低的房贷利率,房屋库存仍接近历史低位,而这就推高了房价。”(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-刘嘉欢
也许你不知道房地产市场已经变得多么难以负担。根据Redfin的一份新报告,美国人如今需要有超过六位数的收入才能买得起一套中等价位的房子。可以说,这样的收入比美国人的平均收入要高得多。
这家房地产经纪和研究公司表示,潜在购房者每年需要赚到11.4627万美元才能负担得起一套房。该数字同比增长15%,为有史以来购房者需达到的最高年收入。这是一个问题,毕竟2022年美国的家庭收入中位数是7.458万美元——离实现Redfin得出的目标收入还差4万美元。(Redfin的报告考虑了收入、平均月供和当前的房贷利率。)
而这甚至还没有考虑地区差异,换句话说,没有考虑纽约市等以物价高著称的市场。如果你想在哥谭市(纽约市的别称)租一套公寓,大多数房东会要求你的年收入至少达到月租的40到45倍。
苏富比International-Montecito的房地产经纪人莫琳·麦克德穆特(Maureen McDermut)对《财富》杂志表示:“虽然在美国购买中等价位房屋所需的收入高于普遍美国家庭的平均收入,但目前在大多数市场上,租房和租公寓的成本其实更高。纽约、芝加哥和洛杉矶的房屋租金都出现了大幅上涨。”(麦克德穆特在洛杉矶从事了20年的商业房地产销售职业。)
再者,麦克德穆特说,“实际上,从长远来看,租房的成本通常还会更高,因为它会带来机会成本(租房者无法积累资产或财富)。”
“租房者和购房者均受到了影响”
这与你的工资(通常是税前工资)和你在租赁市场上需要支付的现金之间的差距有关。例如,在2020年12月,纽约的潜在租房者每月需要赚取1万美元以上(税前),才能负担得起当时3100美元的中等租金。然而,时间快进到今天,曼哈顿的平均月租在今年夏天创下了4400美元的历史新高,这意味着租房者需要达到17.6万美元(税前)的年收入才有资格租房。
纽约房地产分析公司UrbanDigs的联合创始人约翰·沃尔克普在接受《财富》杂志采访时表示:“这一发展轨迹与购房领域的趋势同时出现,突显了一个更广泛的主题:住房成本日益增长。租金与房价一样呈上升趋势,这显现出租房者和购房者均受到了影响。”
当然,应该注意的是,像纽约这类城市的案例是租金的极端例子。Redfin的首席经济学家达丽尔·费尔韦瑟告诉《财富》杂志,从月供的角度来看,整体而言,“在大多数大都市地区,租房都要比贷款买房更实惠。”事实上,按照Redfin的定义,只有在四个主要的美国市场中,买房比租房更便宜:底特律、费城、克利夫兰和休斯敦。
住房负担能力的压力主要是由房贷利率(周三刚刚达到8%)和房价(今年迄今已上涨5%)的上涨造成的。
事实上,随着房贷利率突破7%和房价今年迄今上涨逾5%,美国的住房负担能力现在已经达到本世纪的最低水平。Redfin的数据显示,购房者的月供已创下历史新高,超过2800美元。
然而,截至7月,有四分之一的美国房主每月需要支付超过3000美元的房贷,这使得他们中的许多人成为了“房奴”。与此同时,根据经济数据公司CEIC的数据,2023年7月美国人的平均月收入仅为4600美元。这意味着一些房主可能要将薪水的60%以上用于偿还房贷——远高于他们可负担的水平。费尔韦瑟表示:“购房者的‘住房支出不超过其收入的30%’,他们的月供才会被视为负担得起。”
Redfin的经济研究主管Chen Zhao在一份声明中表示:“在购房者的理想状态中,房贷利率的上涨会推动住房需求和房价下降到足够低的水平,可以弥补利息增加带来的影响。但现在的情况并非如此。尽管新房源的数量略有上升,但由于房主不愿放弃较低的房贷利率,房屋库存仍接近历史低位,而这就推高了房价。”(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-刘嘉欢
Maybe you didn’t know just how unaffordable the housing market has gotten. Americans now need to earn more than six figures in order to purchase a median-priced home, according to calculations in a new Redfin report. That’s a lot more than the average American makes, to say the least.
A prospective homebuyer needs to make $114,627 to afford a home, the brokerage and real-estate research firm says. That’s a 15% year-over-year increase and the highest annual income on record to buy a home. This is a problem considering that median household income was $74,580 in 2022—about $40,000 shy of what’s needed to meet Redfin’s target. (Redfin’s reporting takes into account income, average monthly mortgage payments, and current mortgage rates.)
And this doesn’t even consider regional variation, or famously expensive markets such as New York City. Just to rent an apartment in Gotham, most landlords will require that your annual income equals at least 40 to 45 times the monthly rent.
“While the income needed to purchase a median-priced home in the U.S. is higher than the average income of most American households, it is now more expensive to rent homes and apartments in most markets,” Maureen McDermut, a realtor with Sotheby’s International-Montecito, tells Fortune. “New York City, Chicago, and Los Angeles have all seen dramatic increases in the price to rent a home.” (McDermut started her 20-year career selling commercial real estate in Los Angeles.)
Plus, “the reality is that renting will usually cost more in the long run, as it comes with the opportunity cost of not building equity or wealth,” McDermut says.
‘Renters and buyers alike are affected’
It has to do with the difference between how your salary looks (in most cases pretax) and how you need to come up with cold hard cash in the rental market. For instance, back in December 2020, prospective NYC renters needed to earn more than $10,000 (pretax) each month to meet the $3,100 median rent at the time. Fast forward to today, however, and average monthly rent in Manhattan hit an all-time high this summer at $4,400—meaning that renters would need to make a whopping $176,000 per year (pretax) to even be eligible to rent.
“This trajectory, while concurrent with what we’ve observed in the realm of homeownership, accentuates a broader theme: escalating housing costs,” John Walkup, co-founder of NYC real estate analytics company UrbanDigs, tells Fortune. “The fact that rental costs have followed a similar upward trend as home prices underscores that renters and buyers alike are affected.”
It’s important to consider, of course, that places like NYC are an extreme example of rent prices. When looking generally at buying versus renting from a monthly payment perspective, “renting is more affordable than borrowing to buy a home in most metro areas,” Daryl Fairweather, Redfin’s chief economist, tells Fortune. In fact, there are only four major markets, as defined by Redfin, where it’s cheaper to buy than to rent: Detroit, Philadelphia, Cleveland and Houston.
The strain on housing affordability is largely driven by mortgage rates, which just hit 8% on Wednesday, and rising home prices, which have increased 5% year-to-date.
Indeed, housing affordability is the worst it’s been this century, with mortgage rates exceeding 7% and home prices that are up 5% year-to-date. Monthly mortgage payments reached an all-time high of more than $2,800 per month, Redfin data shows.
But one-fourth of homeowners were paying more than $3,000 per month as of July, leaving many of them house-poor. Meanwhile, average U.S. monthly earnings in July 2023 were just $4,600, according to economic data firm CEIC. That means some homeowners could be spending more than 60% of their paychecks on their mortgage—much higher than what is considered affordable. A monthly mortgage payment is considered affordable if the homebuyer “spends no more than 30% of their income on housing,” Fairweather says.
“In a homebuyer’s ideal world, rising mortgage rates would push demand and home prices down enough to make up for high interest payments. But that’s not what’s happening now,” Chen Zhao, Redfin economics research lead, said in a statement. “Although new listings are ticking up slightly, inventory is still near record lows as homeowners hang onto their low mortgage rates—and that’s propping up prices.”