千禧一代正进入房地产市场，但他们比婴儿潮一代需要赚更多的钱
Sydney Lake
2023-11-19
图片来源：Getty Images
2023年的首次购房者看起来与婴儿潮一代购买首套房时的情况略有不同。由于房价上涨和中等水平库存，与过去相比，新业主往往年龄更大、收入更高，而且更可能是单身或无子女。
这是根据美国全国房地产经纪人协会（National Association of Realtors）在11月13日发布的《2023年购房者和卖家概况报告》（2023 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers）得出的结论。自1981年以来，美国全国房地产经纪人协会每年都会发布该报告。今年，该报告基于近7,000名在2022年7月至2023年6月期间购买主要住宅的买家的反馈。
报告发现，今年首次购房者的典型年龄为35岁。在美国全国房地产经纪人协会长达四十年的数据中，该年龄段排第二位，仅次于去年的36岁，也高于许多婴儿潮一代首次购房时的年龄。根据《伯克利经济评论》（Berkeley Economic Review）的数据，尽管抵押贷款利率在1981年年底达到了18%，但仍然有45%的婴儿潮一代能够在25岁到34岁之间购买第一套住房。
他们的收入也高于过去的首次购房者，收入中位数为95,900美元，高于去年的71,000美元，而且首付比例一般为总价的8%，是自1997年以来的最高水平（当时的首付比例为9%），这反映出住房市场越来越难以负担。
他们单身的可能性更大，有孩子的可能性要小得多，而且明显更加多样化。事实上，美国全国房地产经纪人协会的报告发现，只有52%的首次购房者已婚，而重复购房者的这一比例为63%，36%的首次购房者家中有未满18岁的孩子，低于去年的44%。
他们的人数也比去年多。在2022年跌至26%的创纪录低点之后，今年首次购房者卷土重来，占销售额的32%。虽然这对处于观望状态的潜在首次购房者来说是一个充满希望的趋势，但这一比例依旧远低于1981年以来38%的平均水平，也是同期第四低的比例。
报告强调，千禧一代依然在为进入住房市场而奋斗，无论成本有多高、需要花费多长时间，无论这是否意味着削减奢侈品和娱乐支出，甚至从401(k)退休金计划、股票和加密货币中提取资金。事实上，近四分之一的首次购房者依靠这些类型的资产来购买房子，另有23%的人使用礼物或从朋友或家人那里借来的贷款来支付首付款。
尽管抵押贷款利率徘徊在8%左右，房价连续七个月上涨，但有一点是显而易见的：千禧一代已经厌倦了等待更好的房市。事实上，根据美国全国房地产经纪人协会的报告，60%的首次购房者表示，购房的主要原因是希望拥有一套住房，而不是为了工作或离朋友或家人更近而搬家。
位于蒙特西托的苏富比国际房地产（Sotheby’s International）的经纪人莫林·麦克德穆特对《财富》杂志表示：“拥有一套住房的愿望从未真正消失。我认为，这就是为什么尽管利率和房价上涨，许多人仍旧在进入房地产市场。”
首次购房者的年龄比过去几代人都要大,他们厌倦了等待
首次购房者年龄偏大的趋势在近期不太可能改变。由于住房市场状况是几十年来最难以承受的，年轻一代发现自己陷入了困境——无法支付中等价位房屋的首付款，也无法支付利率8%带来的高额抵押贷款。这意味着可以进入住房市场的20多岁的年轻人越来越少，从而推高了首次购房者的年龄。
麦克德穆特说：“许多年轻的千禧一代和Z世代正在通过与父母同住，甚至与朋友合租来积攒购房首付款。由于‘入门级’住房已经基本被淘汰，对大多数人而言，这样做几乎是必不可少的。”
此外，千禧一代已经厌倦了袖手旁观。他们即将步入收入高峰期，希望开始组建家庭。
专为首次购房者服务的抵押贷款公司Homebuyer.com的创始人及首席执行官丹·格林告诉《财富》杂志，首次购房者的动机与重复购房者和“改善型”购房者不同。他说，他们是由五个“D”驱动的：钻石、尿布、文凭、换办公桌和狗。
格林说：“无论你是要结婚、生子、毕业、找新工作，还是想要一个院子养狗，在过去的两年里，首次购房者把所有这些原因都搁置了。但你不能永远推迟生活计划。”
租房与买房的心态对比
租房还是买房，这个由来已久的争论在千禧一代身上并没有消失——随着租房价格与购房成本的同步上涨，这个问题变得更加复杂。虽然如今买房和以前不一样了，但许多人还是准备冒险一试。
位于美国纽约市的Compass Real Estate的房地产经纪人阿迪·克里格斯坦对《财富》杂志表示：“大多数首次购房者都是30多岁的人，他们希望在一段时间内安定下来，宁愿把钱投入房地产，而不是投入市场和支付房租来对冲风险。从长远来看，与租房相比，拥有一套住房是一项更好的投资，当他们能够就价格进行谈判，并在房价和利率进一步上涨之前将抵押贷款利率锁定在7%至8%之间时，他们就愿意进入市场。”
当然，计算方法取决于很多因素，尤其是地理位置。根据标准普尔CoreLogic凯斯-席勒全美房价NSA指数（S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index），美国房价中位数为31.15万美元，但这一数字因为市场不同会有很大差异。
以洛杉矶为例，根据凯斯-席勒指数的数据，8月洛杉矶的房价中位数超过了41.7万美元。假设现在的抵押贷款利率为7.4%，首付比例为20%，那么这位买家每月的月供将超过2,300美元。然而，根据RentCafe的数据，洛杉矶的平均租金为2,742美元，因此买房比租房便宜。
克里格斯坦指出，另一方面，纽约市入门级住宅的月供可能比租房要高得多。买家通常需要花费更长时间才可以攒够首付款。
她说：“每个房地产市场都是一个细分市场，因此，首付款所需金额和房价中位数的差异很大。”（财富中文网）
译者：中慧言-王芳
2023年的首次购房者看起来与婴儿潮一代购买首套房时的情况略有不同。由于房价上涨和中等水平库存，与过去相比，新业主往往年龄更大、收入更高，而且更可能是单身或无子女。
这是根据美国全国房地产经纪人协会（National Association of Realtors）在11月13日发布的《2023年购房者和卖家概况报告》（2023 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers）得出的结论。自1981年以来，美国全国房地产经纪人协会每年都会发布该报告。今年，该报告基于近7,000名在2022年7月至2023年6月期间购买主要住宅的买家的反馈。
报告发现，今年首次购房者的典型年龄为35岁。在美国全国房地产经纪人协会长达四十年的数据中，该年龄段排第二位，仅次于去年的36岁，也高于许多婴儿潮一代首次购房时的年龄。根据《伯克利经济评论》（Berkeley Economic Review）的数据，尽管抵押贷款利率在1981年年底达到了18%，但仍然有45%的婴儿潮一代能够在25岁到34岁之间购买第一套住房。
他们的收入也高于过去的首次购房者，收入中位数为95,900美元，高于去年的71,000美元，而且首付比例一般为总价的8%，是自1997年以来的最高水平（当时的首付比例为9%），这反映出住房市场越来越难以负担。
他们单身的可能性更大，有孩子的可能性要小得多，而且明显更加多样化。事实上，美国全国房地产经纪人协会的报告发现，只有52%的首次购房者已婚，而重复购房者的这一比例为63%，36%的首次购房者家中有未满18岁的孩子，低于去年的44%。
他们的人数也比去年多。在2022年跌至26%的创纪录低点之后，今年首次购房者卷土重来，占销售额的32%。虽然这对处于观望状态的潜在首次购房者来说是一个充满希望的趋势，但这一比例依旧远低于1981年以来38%的平均水平，也是同期第四低的比例。
报告强调，千禧一代依然在为进入住房市场而奋斗，无论成本有多高、需要花费多长时间，无论这是否意味着削减奢侈品和娱乐支出，甚至从401(k)退休金计划、股票和加密货币中提取资金。事实上，近四分之一的首次购房者依靠这些类型的资产来购买房子，另有23%的人使用礼物或从朋友或家人那里借来的贷款来支付首付款。
尽管抵押贷款利率徘徊在8%左右，房价连续七个月上涨，但有一点是显而易见的：千禧一代已经厌倦了等待更好的房市。事实上，根据美国全国房地产经纪人协会的报告，60%的首次购房者表示，购房的主要原因是希望拥有一套住房，而不是为了工作或离朋友或家人更近而搬家。
位于蒙特西托的苏富比国际房地产（Sotheby’s International）的经纪人莫林·麦克德穆特对《财富》杂志表示：“拥有一套住房的愿望从未真正消失。我认为，这就是为什么尽管利率和房价上涨，许多人仍旧在进入房地产市场。”
首次购房者的年龄比过去几代人都要大。他们厌倦了等待
首次购房者年龄偏大的趋势在近期不太可能改变。由于住房市场状况是几十年来最难以承受的，年轻一代发现自己陷入了困境——无法支付中等价位房屋的首付款，也无法支付利率8%带来的高额抵押贷款。这意味着可以进入住房市场的20多岁的年轻人越来越少，从而推高了首次购房者的年龄。
麦克德穆特说：“许多年轻的千禧一代和Z世代正在通过与父母同住，甚至与朋友合租来积攒购房首付款。由于‘入门级’住房已经基本被淘汰，对大多数人而言，这样做几乎是必不可少的。”
此外，千禧一代已经厌倦了袖手旁观。他们即将步入收入高峰期，希望开始组建家庭。
专为首次购房者服务的抵押贷款公司Homebuyer.com的创始人及首席执行官丹·格林告诉《财富》杂志，首次购房者的动机与重复购房者和“改善型”购房者不同。他说，他们是由五个“D”驱动的：钻石、尿布、文凭、换办公桌和狗。
格林说：“无论你是要结婚、生子、毕业、找新工作，还是想要一个院子养狗，在过去的两年里，首次购房者把所有这些原因都搁置了。但你不能永远推迟生活计划。”
租房与买房的心态对比
租房还是买房，这个由来已久的争论在千禧一代身上并没有消失——随着租房价格与购房成本的同步上涨，这个问题变得更加复杂。虽然如今买房和以前不一样了，但许多人还是准备冒险一试。
位于美国纽约市的Compass Real Estate的房地产经纪人阿迪·克里格斯坦对《财富》杂志表示：“大多数首次购房者都是30多岁的人，他们希望在一段时间内安定下来，宁愿把钱投入房地产，而不是投入市场和支付房租来对冲风险。从长远来看，与租房相比，拥有一套住房是一项更好的投资，当他们能够就价格进行谈判，并在房价和利率进一步上涨之前将抵押贷款利率锁定在7%至8%之间时，他们就愿意进入市场。”
当然，计算方法取决于很多因素，尤其是地理位置。根据标准普尔CoreLogic凯斯-席勒全美房价NSA指数（S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index），美国房价中位数为31.15万美元，但这一数字因为市场不同会有很大差异。
以洛杉矶为例，根据凯斯-席勒指数的数据，8月洛杉矶的房价中位数超过了41.7万美元。假设现在的抵押贷款利率为7.4%，首付比例为20%，那么这位买家每月的月供将超过2,300美元。然而，根据RentCafe的数据，洛杉矶的平均租金为2,742美元，因此买房比租房便宜。
克里格斯坦指出，另一方面，纽约市入门级住宅的月供可能比租房要高得多。买家通常需要花费更长时间才可以攒够首付款。
她说：“每个房地产市场都是一个细分市场，因此，首付款所需金额和房价中位数的差异很大。”（财富中文网）
译者：中慧言-王芳
The first-time homebuyer in 2023 looks a little different than they did when baby boomers were buying their starter homes. Thanks to higher home prices and middling inventory, new owners tend to be older, earn more, and are likelier to be single or childless than in the past.
That’s according to the 2023 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, published by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) on November 13. NAR has put the report out annually since 1981; this year, it is based on responses from nearly 7,000 buyers who purchased a primary residence between July 2022 and June 2023.
It finds that the typical first-time buyer was 35 years old this year. That’s the second-oldest age in four decades of NAR’s data—second only to last year’s 36—and higher than when many baby boomers bought their first homes. Despite mortgage rates hitting 18% by late 1981, some 45% of boomers were able to buy their first home between the ages of 25 and 34, according to the Berkeley Economic Review.
Reflecting the increasing unaffordability of the housing market, they also earn more than first-time buyers of the past, reporting a median income of $95,900—up from $71,000 last year—and their typical down payment was 8%, the highest since 1997, when it was 9%.
They are also more likely to be single, much less likely to have children, and significantly more diverse. In fact, NAR’s report finds just 52% of first-time buyers were married, compared to 63% of repeat buyers, and 36% have a child under the age of 18 living at home, down from 44% last year.
There are also more of them than there were last year. After falling to a record-low 26% of buyers in 2022, first-timers made a comeback this year, comprising 32% of sales. While a promising trend for the potential first-time buyers sitting on the sideline, that’s still well below the 38% average seen since 1981, and the fourth lowest share in that timeframe.
The report highlights how millennials are still fighting to break into the housing market—no matter how much it costs or how long it takes, the report shows, whether that means cutting spending on luxury goods and entertainment or even pulling money from a 401(k), stocks, and cryptocurrency. In fact, nearly a quarter of first-time homebuyers relied on these types of assets to buy a house, and another 23% used a gift or loan from friends or family for the down payment.
Even though mortgage rates are hovering around 8% and home prices have been on a seven-month streak of increases, one thing is evident: millennials are just plain tired of waiting for a better housing market to buy. In fact, 60% of first-time homebuyers said the primary reason for purchasing a home was the desire to own a home of their own, per NAR’s report, as opposed to moving for work or to be closer to friends or family.
“The desire to own a home has never really gone away,” Maureen McDermut, a realtor with Sotheby’s International-Montecito, tells Fortune. “I believe this is why, despite higher interest rates and home prices, many are still entering the market.”
First-time homebuyers are older than past generations. And they’re tired of waiting
The trend of older first-time buyers isn’t likely to change in the immediate future. Because housing market conditions are the least affordable they’ve been in decades, younger generations find themselves stuck—unable to afford a down payment on a median-priced home or the hearty mortgage payments that come with 8% rates. That means fewer 20-somethings are able to break into the housing market, driving up the age of first-time homebuyers.
“Many younger millennials and Gen Zers are saving up by staying home with their parents or even renting with friends to put together a down payment on a home,” says McDermut. “As ‘starter’ homes have largely gone by the wayside, it is almost essential to do this for most.”
Plus millennials are tired of standing on the sidelines. They’re coming into their peak earning years, and want to start family planning.
First-time homebuyers have different motivations than repeat and “move-up” buyers, Dan Green, founder and CEO of Homebuyer.com, a mortgage company dedicated to first-time homebuyers, tells Fortune. They’re driven by the 5 “D’s”: diamonds, diapers, diplomas, desk change, and dogs, he says.
“Whether you’re getting married or having a baby, graduating from school, moving for a new job, or wanting a yard for a dog—first-time buyers have put all these reasons on hold for the last two years,” Green says. “You can’t put your life off forever.”
Rent versus buy mentality
The age-old debate of whether to rent or buy is not lost on millennials—and it’s gotten even more complicated as rental prices have increased in tandem with the cost of buying. While buying doesn’t look to be the same “deal” it was before, many are ready to take the plunge anyway.
“Most first-time homebuyers are those in their 30s looking to stay put for a while and would rather hedge their bets by putting money into real estate versus the market and paying rent,” Adie Kriegstein, a realtor with Compass Real Estate in New York City, tells Fortune. “Owning a home is a better investment than renting in the long run, and they are willing to jump into the market when they can negotiate on the price and lock in a rate between 7 [to] 8% before they rise more.”
Of course, the calculation depends on a number of factors, particularly location. The median-priced home in the U.S. is $311,500, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, but that figure can vary greatly from market to market.
Take Los Angeles, for example, which had a median home price of more than $417,000 in August, according to Case-Shiller. Assuming today’s 7.4% mortgage rate and a 20% down payment, that buyer would have a monthly mortgage payment of more than $2,300. However, the average rent in Los Angeles is $2,742, according to RentCafe, making buying a house cheaper than renting.
On the flipside, the entry-level home in New York City can be much higher than a rental payment, Kriegstein says. It often takes buyers there longer to save up for the down payment.
“Every housing market is a niche,” she says. “As such, the amount needed for a down payment and the median price for a home varies widely.”
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