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美国通胀走低或将推动美国房地产市场

Sydney Lake
2023-11-20

最近,生活成本的增幅有所降低,这可能最终会让一些人更容易负担得起房屋和抵押贷款。

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购房者面临几十年来最严重的住房负担能力危机,但通胀放缓可能会减轻潜在购房者的痛苦。

美国今年10月的通胀率为3.2%,这表明美联储(Federal Reserve)过去20个月采取的加息举措正在开始给消费者价格降温。总部位于美国得克萨斯州的投资公司Ninebird Properties的创始人及首席执行官马克·布斯库尔对《财富》杂志表示,9月至10月的整体通胀率降至3.2%,这意味着生活成本的增幅有所降低,可能最终会让一些人更容易负担得起房屋和抵押贷款。

在房地产行业工作了20多年的布斯库尔说:“通货膨胀率降低也可能导致央行降低利率,使个人更能够负担得起贷款购房。”

在过去的一个月里,抵押贷款利率已经开始下降(至少下降了一点)。今年10月中旬,30年期固定抵押贷款利率达到了8%,创下20年来的新高。据《抵押贷款新闻日报》(Mortgage News Daily)报道,自那以来,利率有所下降,截至11月15日为7.45%。

总部位于美国纽约市的豪华房地产公司Brown Harris Stevens的首席经济学家格雷戈里·海姆告诉《财富》杂志:“通胀走低也将有助于提高住房负担能力,这是因为潜在购房者在购买所有商品和服务方面的支出将会减少。”

通胀趋平有助于提高住房负担能力——但这可能需要一段时间

虽然抵押贷款利率的下降对购房者而言是一个好消息,但目前的利率仍然远不如新冠疫情时期的可负担性。就在几年前,购房者还可以获得低于3%的抵押贷款利率,但房地产市场专家和经济学家预计利率短期内不会降到这么低。

“许多购房者都在观望,等待利率下降。”在抵押贷款行业工作23年的资深人士、Fairway Independent Mortgage Corp.的分公司经理杰里米·沙赫特对《财富》杂志表示。“利率不会像前几年那样跌至历史低点,但会从最近的历史高点回落。”

相反,通胀趋平和抵押贷款利率下降可能需要一段时间才能够对住房负担能力产生重大影响。

布斯库尔说:“一般来说,可能需要几个月甚至几年的时间才可以看到显著的变化。这是因为房地产市场是根据供需运行的,需要时间来调整。随着通胀率的下降,物价可能需要一段时间才能够稳定下来,而随着个人增强购买力信心,需求也会增加。”

此外,抵押贷款利率并不是影响美国住房负担能力的唯一因素。根据标准普尔CoreLogic凯斯-席勒全美房价NSA指数(S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index)的数据(30多年来衡量房屋价值的主要指标),过去七个月,成屋价格上涨了近7%,至311,500美元。然而,深秋和冬季的房价较低,购房竞争者也较少。

私人住宅投资房地产市场New Western的总裁及联合创始人库尔特·卡尔顿告诉《财富》杂志:“然而,这往往是一年中库存最低的时候,因此,尽管通胀率较低,购房者依旧需要调整自己的预期和搜索条件。”

房地产市场专家和经济学家指出,房屋库存水平低是阻碍购房者购买可负担的住房的另一个主要因素。美国房地产市场正在经历自2010年以来最严重的房屋销售低迷(当时美国经济正在努力摆脱金融危机的影响)。事实上,根据全美房地产经纪人协会(National Association of Realtors)的数据,今年9月,经季节性因素调整后的成屋年销售量为396万套,同比下降了15%。

成屋的有限库存将继续“加剧住房市场负担能力挑战,从而进一步影响房价。”卡尔顿说。“这种情况可能会持续下去,直到更广泛的经济尽力解决重大经济障碍问题。”

然而,即使房地产市场受到轻微打击,也可能让一些购房者勉强负担得起住房。

“随着通胀降温,利率将会下降,更多的购房者将进入市场。”沙赫特表示,“库存水平也非常低,这是因为许多卖家即使想卖房,但由于当年锁定超低利率而选择观望。随着利率开始下降,更多卖家将挂牌出售房屋,这将有助于提高库存水平。”

海姆还预计,由于通胀和抵押贷款利率下降,未来几周将有更多的房屋交易完成。

他说:“我预计,未来几周签署的购房合同将显著增加。”但是,“最大的问题是,如果库存水平仍旧很低,这种情况可以持续多久。”(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

购房者面临几十年来最严重的住房负担能力危机,但通胀放缓可能会减轻潜在购房者的痛苦。

美国今年10月的通胀率为3.2%,这表明美联储(Federal Reserve)过去20个月采取的加息举措正在开始给消费者价格降温。总部位于美国得克萨斯州的投资公司Ninebird Properties的创始人及首席执行官马克·布斯库尔对《财富》杂志表示,9月至10月的整体通胀率降至3.2%,这意味着生活成本的增幅有所降低,可能最终会让一些人更容易负担得起房屋和抵押贷款。

在房地产行业工作了20多年的布斯库尔说:“通货膨胀率降低也可能导致央行降低利率,使个人更能够负担得起贷款购房。”

在过去的一个月里,抵押贷款利率已经开始下降(至少下降了一点)。今年10月中旬,30年期固定抵押贷款利率达到了8%,创下20年来的新高。据《抵押贷款新闻日报》(Mortgage News Daily)报道,自那以来,利率有所下降,截至11月15日为7.45%。

总部位于美国纽约市的豪华房地产公司Brown Harris Stevens的首席经济学家格雷戈里·海姆告诉《财富》杂志:“通胀走低也将有助于提高住房负担能力,这是因为潜在购房者在购买所有商品和服务方面的支出将会减少。”

通胀趋平有助于提高住房负担能力——但这可能需要一段时间

虽然抵押贷款利率的下降对购房者而言是一个好消息,但目前的利率仍然远不如新冠疫情时期的可负担性。就在几年前,购房者还可以获得低于3%的抵押贷款利率,但房地产市场专家和经济学家预计利率短期内不会降到这么低。

“许多购房者都在观望,等待利率下降。”在抵押贷款行业工作23年的资深人士、Fairway Independent Mortgage Corp.的分公司经理杰里米·沙赫特对《财富》杂志表示。“利率不会像前几年那样跌至历史低点,但会从最近的历史高点回落。”

相反,通胀趋平和抵押贷款利率下降可能需要一段时间才能够对住房负担能力产生重大影响。

布斯库尔说:“一般来说,可能需要几个月甚至几年的时间才可以看到显著的变化。这是因为房地产市场是根据供需运行的,需要时间来调整。随着通胀率的下降,物价可能需要一段时间才能够稳定下来,而随着个人增强购买力信心,需求也会增加。”

此外,抵押贷款利率并不是影响美国住房负担能力的唯一因素。根据标准普尔CoreLogic凯斯-席勒全美房价NSA指数(S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index)的数据(30多年来衡量房屋价值的主要指标),过去七个月,成屋价格上涨了近7%,至311,500美元。然而,深秋和冬季的房价较低,购房竞争者也较少。

私人住宅投资房地产市场New Western的总裁及联合创始人库尔特·卡尔顿告诉《财富》杂志:“然而,这往往是一年中库存最低的时候,因此,尽管通胀率较低,购房者依旧需要调整自己的预期和搜索条件。”

房地产市场专家和经济学家指出,房屋库存水平低是阻碍购房者购买可负担的住房的另一个主要因素。美国房地产市场正在经历自2010年以来最严重的房屋销售低迷(当时美国经济正在努力摆脱金融危机的影响)。事实上,根据全美房地产经纪人协会(National Association of Realtors)的数据,今年9月,经季节性因素调整后的成屋年销售量为396万套,同比下降了15%。

成屋的有限库存将继续“加剧住房市场负担能力挑战,从而进一步影响房价。”卡尔顿说。“这种情况可能会持续下去,直到更广泛的经济尽力解决重大经济障碍问题。”

然而,即使房地产市场受到轻微打击,也可能让一些购房者勉强负担得起住房。

“随着通胀降温,利率将会下降,更多的购房者将进入市场。”沙赫特表示,“库存水平也非常低,这是因为许多卖家即使想卖房,但由于当年锁定超低利率而选择观望。随着利率开始下降,更多卖家将挂牌出售房屋,这将有助于提高库存水平。”

海姆还预计,由于通胀和抵押贷款利率下降,未来几周将有更多的房屋交易完成。

他说:“我预计,未来几周签署的购房合同将显著增加。”但是,“最大的问题是,如果库存水平仍旧很低,这种情况可以持续多久。”(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

Housing affordability is the worst it’s been in decades, but slowing inflation may reduce some of the pain for hopeful homebuyers.

U.S. inflation came in at 3.2% last month, showing that the Fed’s interest rate hikes over the past 20 months are starting to cool consumer prices. The overall inflation rate dropped to 3.2% between September and October, meaning that increases in the cost of living have been smaller recently, which could eventually make it easier for some people to afford homes and mortgages, Mark Buskuhl, founder and CEO of Ninebird Properties, a Texas-based investment firm, tells Fortune.

“Lower inflation rates may also lead to lower interest rates from central banks, making it more affordable for individuals to take out loans for purchasing homes,” says Buskuhl, who has worked in the real estate industry for more than two decades.

During the past month, mortgage rates have already started to ease, at least a little bit. In mid-October, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit 8%—a two-decade high. Since then, rates have cooled some, and as of November 15 sit at 7.45%, according to Mortgage News Daily.

And “lower inflation will also help housing affordability, as potential homebuyers will be spending less on all the goods and services they buy,” Gregory Heym, chief economist at New York City-based luxury real estate company Brown Harris Stevens, tells Fortune.

Flattening inflation can help housing affordability—But it may take a while

While any drop in mortgage rates is a positive improvement for buyers, rates are still not nearly as affordable as they were during the pandemic. Just a couple of years ago, buyers could get sub-3% mortgage rates, but housing market experts and economists don’t expect to see rates that low anytime soon.

“Many buyers are on the sidelines waiting for rates to come down,” Jeremy Schachter, a 23-year mortgage industry veteran and branch manager of Fairway Independent Mortgage Corp., tells Fortune. “They won’t come down to record lows like we had in years prior, but they will come down from all-time highs recently.”

Instead, flattening inflation and lower mortgage rates could take a while to have a significant impact on housing affordability.

“Generally, it may take several months or even a couple of years for significant changes to be seen,” Buskuhl says. “This is because the housing market operates on a supply and demand basis, which takes time to adjust. As inflation rates decrease, it may take some time for prices to stabilize and for demand to increase as individuals feel more confident in their purchasing power.”

Plus, mortgage rates aren’t the only factor impacting housing affordability in the U.S. Namely, existing home prices have risen over the past seven months by nearly 7% to $311,500, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, a leading measure of home values for over 30 years. The late fall and winter months, however, are notorious for lower home prices and less competition for buyers.

“However, this is often the time of year when inventory is lowest, so buyers will need to adjust their expectations and search criteria despite lower inflation rates,” Kurt Carlton, president and co-founder of New Western, a private residential investment properties marketplace, tells Fortune.

Low housing inventory levels are another major factor blocking homebuyers from affordable deals, housing market experts and economists say. The U.S. housing market is experiencing the worst downturn in home sales since 2010, when the economy was struggling to pull out of the Great Financial Crisis. Indeed, existing-home sales dropped a stunning 15% in September on a year-over-year basis to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.96 million transactions, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

The limited inventory of existing homes will continue to “exacerbate the affordability challenges in the housing market, thereby further impacting the price of homes,” Carlton says. “This situation is likely to persist until the broader economy grapples with substantial economic hurdles.”

However, even the tiniest cracks in the housing market could make it just affordable enough for some buyers.

“As inflation cools, rates will come down and more buyers will come into the market,” Schachter says. “Inventory levels are also very low because many sellers—even though they want to sell—are holding onto their homes due to the ultra-low rates they got. As rates start to decline more sellers will list their homes which will help with inventory levels.”

Heym also expects to see more home deals close in the coming weeks as a result of lower inflation and mortgage rates.

“I would expect to see a noticeable increase in signed contracts to buy homes in the next few weeks,” he says. But, “the big question is how long will that last if inventory remains very low.”

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