10月,美联储最常用的通胀指标下降。华尔街认为,这是另外一个信号,表明美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔可能愿意尽早结束长达20多个月的加息。
这对于消费者和企业而言是好消息。过去几年,借款成本上涨和通货膨胀令消费者和企业不堪重负。尤其是快速增长的公司经常要通过举债进行投资,以拓展业务,结束加息将解决2024年影响企业收益的重要负面因素。降息的前景甚至会更有利于这些公司的股票。随着借款成本的下降,许多公司的收益会增加,而国债和企业债券等股票的替代品,给投资者带来的回报会减少。这意味着更多资金将流入股票市场。
上周四发布的最新通胀数据表明,通货膨胀好转的迹象更明显。美国经济分析局(Bureau of Economic Analysis)的报告称,10月,个人消费支出(PCE)物价指数上涨不到0.1%,同比仅上涨了3%。9月,该指数同比上涨了3.4%。此外,10月,剔除容易波动的食品和能源价格的核心PCE通胀,同比仅上涨了3.5%,低于前一个月的3.7%。
凯投宏观(Capital Economics)的副首席美国经济学家安德鲁·亨特在一份报告中,提到这些数据称:“10月,核心PCE通胀继续下降,将强化市场对即将来到的降息的预期。”
新冠疫情所引发的通货膨胀持续数年之后,今年到目前为止,商品价格下跌了超过5%,公司已经开始降低实物商品的价格。PCE物价指数显示,10月延续了这种趋势,商品价格下降了0.3%。但在美国的节日季,由于国内出行创纪录,导致服务价格上涨0.2%,因此抵消了商品价格的下跌。服务通胀甚至也表现出放缓的迹象。服务通胀包括学费、居住支持、交通、医疗服务成本等。
10月的数据显示,与9月相比,消费者在餐厅、酒吧和酒店的消费有所减少。9月的服务价格上涨了0.3%。上个月,服务通胀的同比上涨幅度,从2023年约5.8%的最高点下降到只有4.4%。这可能意味着美联储将停止加息。
哈里斯金融集团(Harris Financial Group)主理合伙人贾米·考克斯表示:“如果你希望杰伊·鲍威尔未来几个月继续保持鹰派立场,PCE服务指数可能会令你失望。”他认为美联储继续加息的概率较低。“通货膨胀大幅减速。这些数据显然标志着当前的利率周期结束。”
在疫情期间,封锁和供应链混乱导致严重的商品通胀,但过去几年,由于美国人恢复出行和外出用餐,服务通胀出现了反弹。为了应对消费者支出的这种变化,美联储官员强调要控制服务价格上涨。最近的通胀数据让许多华尔街人士对美联储实现这个目标抱有希望。
LPL Financial首席经济学家杰弗里·罗奇表示:“通胀降温速度超出预期,可能给市场带来惊喜。投资者应该预期,会有更多美联储官员改变措辞,让市场为政策立场微调做好准备。”
虽然华尔街希望美联储会结束加息甚至开始降息,但美联储主席鲍威尔并未发表任何鸽派言论。在11月初国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)的一次活动上,鲍威尔对记者表示,他依旧会“致力于”实现美联储2%的通胀目标,保证利率达到“足够限制性”的水平。
他说道:“我们不确信已经实现了这个目标。”
但有些美联储官员似乎认为,继续加息没有必要。亚特兰大联储(Atlanta Fed)主席拉斐尔·波斯迪克在本月早些时候表示,他认为现在利率“已经具备了足够的限制性,能够让通胀达到2%的目标水平”。
上周二,在美国企业研究所(American Enterprise Institute)举办的一次活动上,美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒表示,他“越来越确信,目前的政策能够有效放慢经济增长速度,使通胀率下降到2%”。沃勒被普遍认为是更加鹰牌的美联储官员。他认为,如果通胀继续下降,美联储“就可以开始降低政策利率”。
当然,并非所有美联储官员都认为通胀已经得到控制。上周四,在纽约联储(New York Fed)与联邦储备银行(Federal Reserve Bank)的联合会议上,纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯表示,虽然在减缓消费物价上涨和经济“恢复平衡”方面取得了“有意义的进展”:“我们的工作远未结束。”
他补充道:“我致力于实现2%的长期通胀目标,从而为我们未来的经济奠定强大的基础。”
华尔街也有人对最近的反通胀趋势表示质疑。瑞银全球资产管理公司(UBS Global Wealth Management)高级美国经济学家布莱恩·罗斯表示,美联储需要保持其对于更高利率的“偏见”,才能保证通胀能真正得到控制。罗斯表示:“美联储主席将在周五公开露面,我们预计他会小心翼翼,避免说出过于鸽派的观点。”
但罗斯表示,如果通胀和劳动力市场本月继续降温,美联储可能会在1月底之前“采取中立立场”或停止加息。(财富中文网)
翻译:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
10月,美联储最常用的通胀指标下降。华尔街认为,这是另外一个信号,表明美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔可能愿意尽早结束长达20多个月的加息。
这对于消费者和企业而言是好消息。过去几年,借款成本上涨和通货膨胀令消费者和企业不堪重负。尤其是快速增长的公司经常要通过举债进行投资,以拓展业务,结束加息将解决2024年影响企业收益的重要负面因素。降息的前景甚至会更有利于这些公司的股票。随着借款成本的下降,许多公司的收益会增加,而国债和企业债券等股票的替代品,给投资者带来的回报会减少。这意味着更多资金将流入股票市场。
上周四发布的最新通胀数据表明,通货膨胀好转的迹象更明显。美国经济分析局(Bureau of Economic Analysis)的报告称,10月,个人消费支出(PCE)物价指数上涨不到0.1%,同比仅上涨了3%。9月,该指数同比上涨了3.4%。此外,10月,剔除容易波动的食品和能源价格的核心PCE通胀,同比仅上涨了3.5%,低于前一个月的3.7%。
凯投宏观(Capital Economics)的副首席美国经济学家安德鲁·亨特在一份报告中,提到这些数据称:“10月,核心PCE通胀继续下降,将强化市场对即将来到的降息的预期。”
新冠疫情所引发的通货膨胀持续数年之后,今年到目前为止,商品价格下跌了超过5%,公司已经开始降低实物商品的价格。PCE物价指数显示,10月延续了这种趋势,商品价格下降了0.3%。但在美国的节日季,由于国内出行创纪录,导致服务价格上涨0.2%,因此抵消了商品价格的下跌。服务通胀甚至也表现出放缓的迹象。服务通胀包括学费、居住支持、交通、医疗服务成本等。
10月的数据显示,与9月相比,消费者在餐厅、酒吧和酒店的消费有所减少。9月的服务价格上涨了0.3%。上个月,服务通胀的同比上涨幅度,从2023年约5.8%的最高点下降到只有4.4%。这可能意味着美联储将停止加息。
哈里斯金融集团(Harris Financial Group)主理合伙人贾米·考克斯表示:“如果你希望杰伊·鲍威尔未来几个月继续保持鹰派立场,PCE服务指数可能会令你失望。”他认为美联储继续加息的概率较低。“通货膨胀大幅减速。这些数据显然标志着当前的利率周期结束。”
在疫情期间,封锁和供应链混乱导致严重的商品通胀,但过去几年,由于美国人恢复出行和外出用餐,服务通胀出现了反弹。为了应对消费者支出的这种变化,美联储官员强调要控制服务价格上涨。最近的通胀数据让许多华尔街人士对美联储实现这个目标抱有希望。
LPL Financial首席经济学家杰弗里·罗奇表示:“通胀降温速度超出预期,可能给市场带来惊喜。投资者应该预期,会有更多美联储官员改变措辞,让市场为政策立场微调做好准备。”
虽然华尔街希望美联储会结束加息甚至开始降息,但美联储主席鲍威尔并未发表任何鸽派言论。在11月初国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)的一次活动上,鲍威尔对记者表示,他依旧会“致力于”实现美联储2%的通胀目标,保证利率达到“足够限制性”的水平。
他说道:“我们不确信已经实现了这个目标。”
但有些美联储官员似乎认为,继续加息没有必要。亚特兰大联储(Atlanta Fed)主席拉斐尔·波斯迪克在本月早些时候表示,他认为现在利率“已经具备了足够的限制性,能够让通胀达到2%的目标水平”。
上周二,在美国企业研究所(American Enterprise Institute)举办的一次活动上,美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒表示,他“越来越确信,目前的政策能够有效放慢经济增长速度,使通胀率下降到2%”。沃勒被普遍认为是更加鹰牌的美联储官员。他认为,如果通胀继续下降,美联储“就可以开始降低政策利率”。
当然,并非所有美联储官员都认为通胀已经得到控制。上周四,在纽约联储(New York Fed)与联邦储备银行(Federal Reserve Bank)的联合会议上,纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯表示,虽然在减缓消费物价上涨和经济“恢复平衡”方面取得了“有意义的进展”:“我们的工作远未结束。”
他补充道:“我致力于实现2%的长期通胀目标,从而为我们未来的经济奠定强大的基础。”
华尔街也有人对最近的反通胀趋势表示质疑。瑞银全球资产管理公司(UBS Global Wealth Management)高级美国经济学家布莱恩·罗斯表示,美联储需要保持其对于更高利率的“偏见”,才能保证通胀能真正得到控制。罗斯表示:“美联储主席将在周五公开露面,我们预计他会小心翼翼,避免说出过于鸽派的观点。”
但罗斯表示,如果通胀和劳动力市场本月继续降温,美联储可能会在1月底之前“采取中立立场”或停止加息。(财富中文网)
翻译:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
The Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauge cooled in October. For Wall Street, it’s yet another sign that the central bank’s chairman, Jerome Powell, may be willing to end his more than 20-month-long interest rate hiking campaign sooner rather than later.
That’s great news for consumers and businesses, which have struggled to cope with rising borrowing costs and inflation over the past few years. Fast-growing companies, in particular, often rely on debt to invest in their expanding businesses, and the end of interest rate hikes would remove a significant earnings headwind for them going into 2024. The prospect of interest rate cuts would be even better for their shares. Not only would many companies get a boost to earnings due to lower borrowing rates, but investors’ alternatives to stocks—mainly Treasuries and corporate bonds—would provide a lower return. That would mean more money flowing into the stock market.
The signs of a turnaround in inflation were clear in the latest inflation data released Thursday. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose by less than 0.1% in October, and just 3% from a year ago, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported. That’s compared with a 3.4% year-over-year jump in September. Meanwhile, core PCE inflation, which excludes more volatile food and energy prices, rose just 3.5% from a year ago in October, down from 3.7% the previous month.
“The further decline in core PCE inflation in October will reinforce the growing belief in markets that interest rate cuts are on the horizon,” Capital Economics’ deputy chief U.S. economist, Andrew Hunter, said of the data in a Thursday note.
With commodity prices falling more than 5% so far this year, businesses have begun to reduce prices of physical goods after years of pandemic-induced inflation. In October, that trend continued with goods prices dropping 0.3% during the month, according to the PCE price index. That drop was offset by an 0.2% rise in services prices amid record domestic travel for the holiday season. But even services inflation—a category that includes a mix of components like tuition prices and shelter, transportation, and medical service costs—is showing signs of slowing.
October’s data showed reduced spending on restaurants, bars, and hotels compared with September, when services prices rose 0.3%. And year-over-year services inflation has fallen from its 2023 peak of roughly 5.8% to just 4.4% last month. That could signal the end of the Fed’s interest rate hikes.
“If you are hoping Jay Powell continues to be hawkish in the coming months, the PCE services index is not your friend,” Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group, said Thursday, downplaying the likelihood of more interest rate hikes. “There is significant deceleration in inflation afoot. These data solidly mark the end of the rate cycle.”
Throughout the pandemic, lockdowns and supply-chain chaos led to mass goods inflation, but over the past few years, services inflation has rebounded due to Americans getting back to traveling and eating out. In response to this shift in consumer spending, Fed officials have emphasized combating services price increases. And the latest inflation data has given many on Wall Street hope that the central bank is making progress toward this goal.
“Markets could end up pleasantly surprised as inflation could cool faster than expected,” Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, said Thursday. “Investors should expect additional Fed officials to tweak their language as they prepare markets for a subtle shift in policy stance.”
Despite Wall Street’s hopes that the Fed will either end its interest rate hikes or even cut rates, Chair Powell has yet to make more dovish remarks. At an early November International Monetary Fund event, he told reporters that he remains “committed” to achieving the central bank’s 2% inflation target by ensuring interest rates are “sufficiently restrictive.”
“We are not confident that we have achieved such a stance,” he added.
Some Fed officials seem to be coming around to the idea that further interest rate hikes are no longer necessary, however. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said earlier this month that he believes interest rates are now “sufficiently restrictive to get us to the 2% level for inflation.”
And Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Tuesday at an American Enterprise Institute event that he is “increasingly confident that policy is currently well positioned to slow the economy and get inflation back to 2%.” Waller, who is generally regarded as a more hawkish Fed official, went on to argue that if inflation continues to fade, the Fed “could then start lowering the policy rate.”
Of course, not every Fed official is convinced that inflation has been tamed. New York Fed President John Williams said Thursday at a New York Fed, Federal Reserve Bank joint conference that although “meaningful progress” has been made in slowing consumer price increases and “restoring balance” to the economy: “Our work is not nearly done.”
“I am committed to achieving our 2% longer-run inflation goal, creating a strong foundation for our economic future,” he added.
There are also still skeptics of the recent disinflationary trend on Wall Street. Brian Rose, senior U.S. economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, said Thursday that the Fed will need to keep its “bias” toward higher interest rates to ensure inflation is truly under control. “Fed Chair Jerome Powell will make a public appearance on Friday, and we expect him to be careful to avoid sounding too dovish,” Rose argued.
However, even Rose noted that if inflation and the labor market continue to cool this month, the Fed could “move to a neutral stance”—or end its rate hikes—by the end of January.