过去两年多,通货膨胀问题困扰着全世界的央行,但高盛(Goldman Sachs)首席经济学家贾恩·哈奇乌斯认为,消费者的痛苦时期即将结束。鉴于哈奇乌斯最近在经济预测方面的出色表现,他的观点很有价值。
发达国家市场在疫情期间通胀大幅上涨。高盛的数据显示,过去三个月,发达国家的合并年化核心通胀率下降到2.2%,而在11月只有1.3%。这接近央行2%的目标。哈奇乌斯认为,这代表了一件事:“全球通胀持续下降。”
哈奇乌斯周一在一篇名为《大通货紧缩》(The Great Disinflation)的报告中表示,随着价格上涨的趋势缓解,多个发达国家的央行将在2024年进行“更早和更激进的”降息。
2022年夏,美国通胀率超过9%,达到四十年最高水平,11月,美国通胀率同比下降至只有3.1%。哈奇乌斯认为,明年上半年,可能是3月、5月和6月,美国将进行三次降息,降息幅度为25个基点,到年底还会额外进行两次降息。他预测,2025年,美国还会有三次降息,使美联储的基金利率到2025年9月维持在3.25%至3.5%之间。
这个预测在某种程度上像是哈奇乌斯在庆祝胜利。今年年初,大多数经济学家担心美国即将陷入经济衰退,但高盛首席经济学家哈奇乌斯却认为,美联储能够控制通胀,且不会引发严重经济衰退。他认为美国陷入经济衰退的概率为15%至35%,这让他成为华尔街最乐观的预测者之一。
高盛认为,明年稳健的劳动力市场、通胀下降和降息,有助于刺激GDP增长和企业营收。哈奇乌斯在周一写道,这将“特别有利于风险资产市场”。哈奇乌斯还负责高盛的全球投资研究部门。
经过残酷的2022年之后,今年许多所谓的风险资产暴涨,标普500指数上涨了超过23%,而以科技股为主的纳斯达克上涨了43%。在加密货币市场,随着投资者的风险承受能力增强,该市场也开始复苏。比特币价格暴涨152%,重回近42,000美元,以太币价格上涨了超过80%,突破了2,100美元。
高盛首席美国股票投资策略师大卫·科斯汀周五甚至将标普500指数的价格目标从4,700点上调到5,100点,他认为“通胀下降”、“美联储的鸽派政策”和更“稳健的”经济前景等因素,将支持明年的股市。这个新目标点位意味着2024年,该蓝筹指数将上涨约8%。科斯汀在客户报告中提到了哈奇乌斯最近的预测修订。他解释称:“我们对股市更乐观的观点,也符合我们的同事们对美国GDP增长的最新预测。”
哈奇乌斯预测,2024年GDP增长率为2%,失业率只有3.6%。然而,这位首席经济学家还表示,他对美国GDP增长和失业情况更乐观的预测,可能是一把双刃剑。虽然经济过于强劲有利于经济和股市,但可能让美联储官员担心通胀死灰复燃,迫使他们更长时间维持高利率。
哈奇乌斯警告,强劲的经济“可能支持更慢降息”。他解释称“即使通胀接近美联储的目标,如果实际情况好于这个高于共识的预测,美联储依旧可能会暂停降息。”
在最近强劲的GDP、通胀和零售销售报告发布之后,华尔街变得日益乐观。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)在过去一年一直是最悲观的投行之一。11月,该银行将标普500指数的价格目标从4,200点上调至4,500点。基础设施资本管理公司(Infrastructure Capital Management)创始人兼CEO杰伊·哈特菲尔德是华尔街最乐观的投资者之一。他上周将标普500指数的价格目标从5,100点上调至5,500点,这意味着虽然该蓝筹股指数今年已经上涨了超过20%,但在2024年有可能还会上涨15%。
与哈奇乌斯一样,哈特菲尔德也认为“2024年将是全球降息的一年”,这对投资者而言绝对是好消息。(财富中文网)
翻译:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
过去两年多,通货膨胀问题困扰着全世界的央行,但高盛(Goldman Sachs)首席经济学家贾恩·哈奇乌斯认为,消费者的痛苦时期即将结束。鉴于哈奇乌斯最近在经济预测方面的出色表现,他的观点很有价值。
发达国家市场在疫情期间通胀大幅上涨。高盛的数据显示,过去三个月,发达国家的合并年化核心通胀率下降到2.2%,而在11月只有1.3%。这接近央行2%的目标。哈奇乌斯认为,这代表了一件事:“全球通胀持续下降。”
哈奇乌斯周一在一篇名为《大通货紧缩》(The Great Disinflation)的报告中表示,随着价格上涨的趋势缓解,多个发达国家的央行将在2024年进行“更早和更激进的”降息。
2022年夏,美国通胀率超过9%,达到四十年最高水平,11月,美国通胀率同比下降至只有3.1%。哈奇乌斯认为,明年上半年,可能是3月、5月和6月,美国将进行三次降息,降息幅度为25个基点,到年底还会额外进行两次降息。他预测,2025年,美国还会有三次降息,使美联储的基金利率到2025年9月维持在3.25%至3.5%之间。
这个预测在某种程度上像是哈奇乌斯在庆祝胜利。今年年初,大多数经济学家担心美国即将陷入经济衰退,但高盛首席经济学家哈奇乌斯却认为,美联储能够控制通胀,且不会引发严重经济衰退。他认为美国陷入经济衰退的概率为15%至35%,这让他成为华尔街最乐观的预测者之一。
高盛认为,明年稳健的劳动力市场、通胀下降和降息,有助于刺激GDP增长和企业营收。哈奇乌斯在周一写道,这将“特别有利于风险资产市场”。哈奇乌斯还负责高盛的全球投资研究部门。
经过残酷的2022年之后,今年许多所谓的风险资产暴涨,标普500指数上涨了超过23%,而以科技股为主的纳斯达克上涨了43%。在加密货币市场,随着投资者的风险承受能力增强,该市场也开始复苏。比特币价格暴涨152%,重回近42,000美元,以太币价格上涨了超过80%,突破了2,100美元。
高盛首席美国股票投资策略师大卫·科斯汀周五甚至将标普500指数的价格目标从4,700点上调到5,100点,他认为“通胀下降”、“美联储的鸽派政策”和更“稳健的”经济前景等因素,将支持明年的股市。这个新目标点位意味着2024年,该蓝筹指数将上涨约8%。科斯汀在客户报告中提到了哈奇乌斯最近的预测修订。他解释称:“我们对股市更乐观的观点,也符合我们的同事们对美国GDP增长的最新预测。”
哈奇乌斯预测,2024年GDP增长率为2%,失业率只有3.6%。然而,这位首席经济学家还表示,他对美国GDP增长和失业情况更乐观的预测,可能是一把双刃剑。虽然经济过于强劲有利于经济和股市,但可能让美联储官员担心通胀死灰复燃,迫使他们更长时间维持高利率。
哈奇乌斯警告,强劲的经济“可能支持更慢降息”。他解释称“即使通胀接近美联储的目标,如果实际情况好于这个高于共识的预测,美联储依旧可能会暂停降息。”
在最近强劲的GDP、通胀和零售销售报告发布之后,华尔街变得日益乐观。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)在过去一年一直是最悲观的投行之一。11月,该银行将标普500指数的价格目标从4,200点上调至4,500点。基础设施资本管理公司(Infrastructure Capital Management)创始人兼CEO杰伊·哈特菲尔德是华尔街最乐观的投资者之一。他上周将标普500指数的价格目标从5,100点上调至5,500点,这意味着虽然该蓝筹股指数今年已经上涨了超过20%,但在2024年有可能还会上涨15%。
与哈奇乌斯一样,哈特菲尔德也认为“2024年将是全球降息的一年”,这对投资者而言绝对是好消息。(财富中文网)
翻译:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
Inflation has been a thorn in the side of central banks worldwide for over two years, but Goldman Sachs’ chief economist Jan Hatzius believes the era of pain for consumers is coming to an end. And Hatzius is someone worth listening to, given his recent track record on the economy.
The combined core inflation rate of the developed markets that faced an inflationary surge during the pandemic fell to an annualized pace of just 2.2% over the past three months, and only 1.3% in November, according to Goldman Sachs data. That’s right around central banks’ 2% target. It means one thing to Hatzius: “Global inflation continues to plummet.”
Hatzius wrote Monday in a note titled “The Great Disinflation” that multiple major central banks in developed markets will make “earlier and more aggressive” interest rate cuts in 2024 as price increases fade.
In the U.S., where year-over-year inflation dropped to just 3.1% in November after hitting a four-decade high above 9% in the summer of 2022, Hatzius sees three back-to-back 25 basis point interest rate cuts in the first half of next year—probably in March, May, and June—plus two additional cuts by year-end. Then, in 2025, he expects three more rate cuts, leaving the Fed funds rate between 3.25% and 3.5% by September of that year.
The forecast is somewhat of a victory lap for Hatzius. While most economists feared a recession was imminent at the beginning of the year, Goldman’s chief economist argued the Fed would be able to tame inflation without sparking a serious economic downturn. His outlook has ranged from 35% odds of a U.S. recession to just 15%, making him one of the most bullish forecasters on the Street.
A robust labor market, lower inflation, and sinking interest rates will help boost GDP growth and corporate earnings next year, in Goldman Sachs’ view. This will be “exceptionally friendly for risk asset markets,” Hatzius, who also heads Goldman’s global investment research division, wrote Monday.
Many so-called risk assets have soared this year after a brutal 2022, with the S&P 500 rising over 23% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq jumping 43%. Cryptocurrencies have also seen a resurgence this year as investors’ appetite for risk has increased. Bitcoin has surged 152% back to nearly $42,000, while Ether is up more than 80% to over $2,100.
David Kostin, Goldman’s chief U.S. equity strategist, even raised his price target for the S&P 500 from 4,700 to 5,100 Friday, citing “lower inflation,” “dovish Fed policy,” and a more “robust” economic outlook that will support stocks next year. The new target represents a roughly 8% upside for the blue-chip index in 2024. “Our stronger view of the equity market also dovetails with our colleagues’ upgrades to the U.S. GDP growth,” Kostin explained in a note to clients, referencing Hatzius’s recent forecast revision.
Hatzius expects 2% GDP growth in 2024 and an unemployment rate of just 3.6%. However, the chief economist also noted that his more optimistic outlook for U.S. GDP growth and unemployment could be a double-edged sword. While beneficial for the economy and stocks, too much economic strength could lead Fed officials to fear a resurgence of inflation, forcing them to keep interest rates higher for longer.
It “argues for slower cuts,” Hatzius warned, explaining that “any further upside surprises relative to this above-consensus forecast might persuade the committee to pause even with inflation near the target.”
Still, after recent strong GDP, inflation, and retail sales reports, Wall Street is becoming increasingly optimistic. Morgan Stanley, which has been one of the most bearish investment banks all year, raised its S&P 500 price target to 4,500 from 4,200 in November. And Infrastructure Capital Management founder and CEO Jay Hatfield, one of the Street’s biggest bulls, raised his S&P 500 price target from 5,100 to 5,500 last week, representing a potential 15% gain for the blue-chip index in 2024, even after this year’s more than 20% jump.
Hatfield, like Hatzius, believes “2024 will be the year of global rate cuts”—and that’s nothing but good news for investors.