世界卫生组织(World Health Organization)正在密切关注一种新出现的新冠病毒变异株。在一些国家,这种变异株导致废水中的病毒含量达到史上最高水平。
世卫组织上周二将JN.1列为“需要留意的变异株”。JN.1是奥密克戎变异株的亚分支,今年夏天,专家因为它具有异常多的突变而发出警告。这是仅次于“需要关注的变异株”的警告等级。此前,奥密克戎、德尔塔和阿尔法新冠病毒变异株,均属于“需要关注的变异株”,后来才被世卫组织取消。
JN.1变异株的危险性多高?感染的概率又有多高?它是否会影响你的假期计划?《财富》杂志采访的专家认为,你需要知道以下信息。
JN.1到底是什么意思?
从技术角度来说,JN.1是另外一种奥密克戎亚分支。它从BA.2.86新冠变异株进化而来。今年夏天,BA.2.86因为与原始奥密克戎变异株相比出现了大量突变,根据不同计算方法统计突变高达30种甚至更多,因此引起关注。自从2022年奥密克戎在全球传播以来,BA.2.86曾经是、而且现在依旧是基因方面最特别的新冠病毒变异株。许多专家甚至表示,世界卫生组织有必要以一个新的希腊字母为其命名。
BA.2.86除了有大量突变以外,它还能逃脱免疫,而且更容易感染细胞。新冠变异株跟踪研究员用一颗小行星的名字,将BA.2.86命名为“Pirola”,以表明他们相信这种新变异株或者其亚分支,最终会获得一个新希腊字母作为名称,按照字母表顺序可能是Pi或Rho。
BA.2.86并没有像想象中那样成为主流病毒,但它在一些地区确实在迅速传播。早在8月,有专家警告,虽然BA.2.86可能并非一些人想象的“奥密克戎黑天鹅事件”,但它的一个亚分支却有可能做到。
它就是JN.1。这种变异株的命名虽然听起来有些奇怪,但事实上并非如此。它是BA.2.86的亚分支之一,主要区别在于一个重要的突变:L455S,这让它具备了逃脱先前感染和疫苗产生的抗体的能力。L455S让JN.1“长出了翅膀”,而这是BA.2.86所不具备的能力。
从技术角度来说,JN.1的名称应该是BA.2.86.1.1。但新冠变异株的命名系统,要求名称的字母串不超过三组额外数字和句点。因此BA.2.86.1.1“被改为”JN.1。
这就是它名字的由来。
JN.1有哪些症状?
现在还无法判断JN.1的症状与奥密克戎的典型症状有哪些区别。迄今为止,还没有太多证据证明JN.1的症状不同于奥密克戎,尽管有报道称腹泻增加,但不确定这是否与这种变异株有关。
JN.1是否比其他奥密克戎变异株更危险?
现在下结论仍为时尚早。在纽约市等一些地区,住院人数增多。纽约市被视为“风向标”,可以预测美国其他地区的情况。但住院人数增多至少在一定程度上可能是群体免疫力下降的结果。其他变异株毫无疑问导致了住院和死亡。
美国疾病预防控制中心(U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)最近公开的数据显示,在美国,从12月9日以来,新冠住院人数缓慢增多,但死亡率保持稳定。
主要新冠病毒建模专家杰伊·维兰德对《财富》杂志表示,JN.1病毒的免疫逃脱力约为BA.2.86的40至50倍。至于其大幅增强的免疫逃脱力,会对不同群体产生什么影响,我们仍要拭目以待。
新冠疫苗对JN.1是否有效?
是的。疫苗能够提供良好的保护力,可避免重症、住院和死亡。
约翰斯·霍普金斯大学(Johns Hopkins)医学系数据完整性与分析医学副主任斯图尔特·雷伊博士对《财富》杂志表示:“如果有人不想感染新冠,希望以更低风险获得免疫力,几个月前发布的单价XBB疫苗能够对JN.1变异株提供强有力的免疫反应。”
他补充道:“就像之前那些优势流行变异株一样,目前尚不确定JN.1是否会导致新冠重症率或长新冠显著增加,但我在医院患者中看到了许多因新冠、合胞病毒和流感引发的呼吸道疾病。因此,在当前呼吸病毒高发季节,应该采取合理的预防措施。”
面对难以控制的JN.1病毒,我是否应该再戴上口罩?
许多专家表示,戴口罩是明智的做法。雷伊建议“在公共场合,尤其是室内,在不影响基本任务的情况下,配戴有效的口罩。”
他补充道:“而且戴口罩也是一种为脸部保暖的好方法。”
Paxlovid药物对JN.1是否有效?
是的。但专家警告,如果患者开了Paxlovid药物,却因为其令人讨厌的金属味而中途停药,这可能导致病毒围绕这种抗病毒药物进化,最终导致药物无效。
居家新冠检测对JN.1是否有效?
是的,但居家监测无论过去还是现在都做不到完全准确。许多人进行检测的时间过早或过晚。无论过早还是过晚,病毒载量可能都不足以出现阳性检测结果。专家建议,如果你有症状但检测呈阴性,可以再等两天重新检测。
世卫组织宣布JN.1为“需要留意的变异株”。这意味着什么?
12月19日,世卫组织宣布JN.1为“需要留意的变异株”,呼吁各国卫生主管部门保持警惕,并增加基因测序。
加拿大安大略省圭尔夫大学(University of Guelph)生物学教授瑞恩·格里高利对《财富》杂志表示,实际上,对于普通人而言,“这不会带来任何改变”。一年多以来,格里高利和一批“变异株跟踪研究人员”设计了新冠变异株的“代号”,以便于向公众更好地宣传奥密克戎变异株不断演变的威胁。
他补充道:“我认为,在某种程度上,他们指出病毒仍在进化,并且依旧值得监控,这是好事。”
JN.1的传播速度有多快?
由于新冠病毒样本测序几乎处于历史最低水平,因此很难判断JN.1的传播速度。雷伊表示,但我们知道,JN.1的传播速度“似乎将超过全球正在传播的其他变异株,包括其母系病毒BA.2.86和同代亚分支。”
要评估一种变异株的传播速度,一种有效的方法是计算其“倍增时间”或者其在特定区域内基因测序数量翻倍的时间。由于基因测序水平较低,难以准确计算新变异株的倍增时间。JN.1的前一代BA. 2.86.1倍增时间约为每两周一次。维兰德表示,这远落后于原始奥密克戎BA.1.1变异株每2.5-3天一次的倍增时间。目前的变异株传播速度更慢,因此JN.1家族的倍增时间足以令其脱颖而出。
JN.1在哪些国家导致或促使新冠传播达到创纪录的水平?
维兰德表示,目前德国、荷兰和丹麦废水中的新冠病毒含量创历史新高,甚至高于2022年初奥密克戎最高峰时的水平。
专家表示,在美国,除了初始奥密克戎病毒株以外,JN.1可能超过其他所有病毒株。但各国的新冠疫情略有不同甚至有很大区别,这取决于我们已知的许多因素,例如天气、社交隔离、群体免疫力等,甚至还有一些我们尚不了解的因素。欧洲国家初始奥密克戎疫情的规模小于美国,这可能是这些国家目前JN.1疫情创纪录的原因。
JN.1从何而来?
科学家们并不能完全确定JN.1及其前身BA.2.86从何而来,这个问题可能永远都不会有答案。有人认为,BA.2.86可能是在免疫力低下的BA.2患者或者长期感染BA.2的患者体内,经过一年多时间进化而成。BA.2在2022年初被发现,因其在PCR检测中能够逃过检测的能力而被称为“隐形奥密克戎”。
大多数人的免疫系统能够在相对较短的时间内击败新冠病毒和其他变异株。但免疫系统受损的患者,其感染可能持续几个月甚至数年,这让病毒有机会围绕人体免疫系统不断进化。在这些情况下,病毒可能“藏匿在”我们意想不到的地方,例如胃肠道系统。此时,在呼吸道系统中进行普通新冠检测,结果将是阴性。但患者依旧处在被感染状态,而且可能通过粪便污染传播病毒。
在长期感染者体内进化的新变异株,很少有机会重新在人群中传播,而且即使能够传播也不太可能马上超过优势流行新冠病毒株。为什么呢?变异株在一个宿主体内,没有必要为了在适者生存的进化过程中获胜而形成更高的传播力。但在全球传播的变异株有几个月时间,出现新的突变,并增强其传播能力。
格里高利在今年秋天对《财富》杂志表示,一旦BA.2.86等高度突变的变异株开始大范围传播,它就会开始自我完善的过程。他当时表示:“Pirola在宿主体内进化,已经获得了足够的立足点,这意味着我们应该要保持警惕。”
不出所料,BA.2.86继续进化,最终出现了标志性的刺突蛋白L455S突变,其逃脱先前感染和接种疫苗形成的抗体的能力得到了增强。这就是JN.1能够迅速传播而BA.2.86却没有形成气候的原因。
专家表示,原始奥密克戎也是类似的情况。BA.1.1.529是高度突变的原始奥密克戎毒株,它与前身德尔塔病毒几乎没有相似之处。但它并没有快速传播。在获得了能令它更快传播的新突变之后,BA.1.1.529变成了BA.1.1.529.1.1,简写为BA.1.1,最终席卷全球。
JN.1未来会走向何方?
简而言之:无法确定。
JN.1可能像BA.2.86一样继续进化,或者像所有新冠毒株一样消失。变异株之间的竞争是真实的适者生存游戏,它们之间会继续竞争,通过一种名为趋同进化的平行进化获得相同或类似的突变。JN.1可能获得目前还没有获得的许多突变,这可能令其后代变得更加棘手。
有专家表示,JN.1可能进化出最新的主要新冠变异株,就像目前所有新出现的主要新冠变异株都从奥密克戎进化而来一样。换言之,这可能是疫情新时代的起点。
另外,新冠病毒可能再次令全世界措手不及。长期感染看似古老的病毒株的患者体内存在高度突变变异株,可能再次传播。因此,格里高利认为,公共卫生官员在制定未来计划时,不能只专注于目前的新冠疫情状况。因为,有时候,“不可思议的一次性事件可能再次发生”。
变异株跟踪研究人员是否会给JN.1一个新“代号”,例如对Pirola或Kraken的命名?
格里高利表示,人们针对是否要给JN.1一个单独的“绰号”进行了“许多讨论”。一方面,它与其母系病毒BA.2.86“Pirola”的区别只有一种重大突变。另一方面,它正在以一种Pirola从未有过的势头快速传播。
目前,这些跟踪者决定不为JN.1重新命名,并将其作为Pirola家族的一员。
他表示:“关键不在于某一种变异株,或者它们是否会像最初的奥密克戎一样引发一波疫情。关键是进化谱系的观念。这符合我们最初的观点:问题不在于变异株[BA.2.86]本身,”而是它会进化出哪些亚分支——可能是一系列新变异株,例如奥密克戎进化出既有相似之处又有区别的变异株,它们的免疫逃脱力和感染宿主的能力日益增强。(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
世界卫生组织(World Health Organization)正在密切关注一种新出现的新冠病毒变异株。在一些国家,这种变异株导致废水中的病毒含量达到史上最高水平。
世卫组织上周二将JN.1列为“需要留意的变异株”。JN.1是奥密克戎变异株的亚分支,今年夏天,专家因为它具有异常多的突变而发出警告。这是仅次于“需要关注的变异株”的警告等级。此前,奥密克戎、德尔塔和阿尔法新冠病毒变异株,均属于“需要关注的变异株”,后来才被世卫组织取消。
JN.1变异株的危险性多高?感染的概率又有多高?它是否会影响你的假期计划?《财富》杂志采访的专家认为,你需要知道以下信息。
JN.1到底是什么意思?
从技术角度来说,JN.1是另外一种奥密克戎亚分支。它从BA.2.86新冠变异株进化而来。今年夏天,BA.2.86因为与原始奥密克戎变异株相比出现了大量突变,根据不同计算方法统计突变高达30种甚至更多,因此引起关注。自从2022年奥密克戎在全球传播以来,BA.2.86曾经是、而且现在依旧是基因方面最特别的新冠病毒变异株。许多专家甚至表示,世界卫生组织有必要以一个新的希腊字母为其命名。
BA.2.86除了有大量突变以外,它还能逃脱免疫,而且更容易感染细胞。新冠变异株跟踪研究员用一颗小行星的名字,将BA.2.86命名为“Pirola”,以表明他们相信这种新变异株或者其亚分支,最终会获得一个新希腊字母作为名称,按照字母表顺序可能是Pi或Rho。
BA.2.86并没有像想象中那样成为主流病毒,但它在一些地区确实在迅速传播。早在8月,有专家警告,虽然BA.2.86可能并非一些人想象的“奥密克戎黑天鹅事件”,但它的一个亚分支却有可能做到。
它就是JN.1。这种变异株的命名虽然听起来有些奇怪,但事实上并非如此。它是BA.2.86的亚分支之一,主要区别在于一个重要的突变:L455S,这让它具备了逃脱先前感染和疫苗产生的抗体的能力。L455S让JN.1“长出了翅膀”,而这是BA.2.86所不具备的能力。
从技术角度来说,JN.1的名称应该是BA.2.86.1.1。但新冠变异株的命名系统,要求名称的字母串不超过三组额外数字和句点。因此BA.2.86.1.1“被改为”JN.1。
这就是它名字的由来。
JN.1有哪些症状?
现在还无法判断JN.1的症状与奥密克戎的典型症状有哪些区别。迄今为止,还没有太多证据证明JN.1的症状不同于奥密克戎,尽管有报道称腹泻增加,但不确定这是否与这种变异株有关。
JN.1是否比其他奥密克戎变异株更危险?
现在下结论仍为时尚早。在纽约市等一些地区,住院人数增多。纽约市被视为“风向标”,可以预测美国其他地区的情况。但住院人数增多至少在一定程度上可能是群体免疫力下降的结果。其他变异株毫无疑问导致了住院和死亡。
美国疾病预防控制中心(U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)最近公开的数据显示,在美国,从12月9日以来,新冠住院人数缓慢增多,但死亡率保持稳定。
主要新冠病毒建模专家杰伊·维兰德对《财富》杂志表示,JN.1病毒的免疫逃脱力约为BA.2.86的40至50倍。至于其大幅增强的免疫逃脱力,会对不同群体产生什么影响,我们仍要拭目以待。
新冠疫苗对JN.1是否有效?
是的。疫苗能够提供良好的保护力,可避免重症、住院和死亡。
约翰斯·霍普金斯大学(Johns Hopkins)医学系数据完整性与分析医学副主任斯图尔特·雷伊博士对《财富》杂志表示:“如果有人不想感染新冠,希望以更低风险获得免疫力,几个月前发布的单价XBB疫苗能够对JN.1变异株提供强有力的免疫反应。”
他补充道:“就像之前那些优势流行变异株一样,目前尚不确定JN.1是否会导致新冠重症率或长新冠显著增加,但我在医院患者中看到了许多因新冠、合胞病毒和流感引发的呼吸道疾病。因此,在当前呼吸病毒高发季节,应该采取合理的预防措施。”
面对难以控制的JN.1病毒,我是否应该再戴上口罩?
许多专家表示,戴口罩是明智的做法。雷伊建议“在公共场合,尤其是室内,在不影响基本任务的情况下,配戴有效的口罩。”
他补充道:“而且戴口罩也是一种为脸部保暖的好方法。”
Paxlovid药物对JN.1是否有效?
是的。但专家警告,如果患者开了Paxlovid药物,却因为其令人讨厌的金属味而中途停药,这可能导致病毒围绕这种抗病毒药物进化,最终导致药物无效。
居家新冠检测对JN.1是否有效?
是的,但居家监测无论过去还是现在都做不到完全准确。许多人进行检测的时间过早或过晚。无论过早还是过晚,病毒载量可能都不足以出现阳性检测结果。专家建议,如果你有症状但检测呈阴性,可以再等两天重新检测。
世卫组织宣布JN.1为“需要留意的变异株”。这意味着什么?
12月19日,世卫组织宣布JN.1为“需要留意的变异株”,呼吁各国卫生主管部门保持警惕,并增加基因测序。
加拿大安大略省圭尔夫大学(University of Guelph)生物学教授瑞恩·格里高利对《财富》杂志表示,实际上,对于普通人而言,“这不会带来任何改变”。一年多以来,格里高利和一批“变异株跟踪研究人员”设计了新冠变异株的“代号”,以便于向公众更好地宣传奥密克戎变异株不断演变的威胁。
他补充道:“我认为,在某种程度上,他们指出病毒仍在进化,并且依旧值得监控,这是好事。”
JN.1的传播速度有多快?
由于新冠病毒样本测序几乎处于历史最低水平,因此很难判断JN.1的传播速度。雷伊表示,但我们知道,JN.1的传播速度“似乎将超过全球正在传播的其他变异株,包括其母系病毒BA.2.86和同代亚分支。”
要评估一种变异株的传播速度,一种有效的方法是计算其“倍增时间”或者其在特定区域内基因测序数量翻倍的时间。由于基因测序水平较低,难以准确计算新变异株的倍增时间。JN.1的前一代BA. 2.86.1倍增时间约为每两周一次。维兰德表示,这远落后于原始奥密克戎BA.1.1变异株每2.5-3天一次的倍增时间。目前的变异株传播速度更慢,因此JN.1家族的倍增时间足以令其脱颖而出。
JN.1在哪些国家导致或促使新冠传播达到创纪录的水平?
维兰德表示,目前德国、荷兰和丹麦废水中的新冠病毒含量创历史新高,甚至高于2022年初奥密克戎最高峰时的水平。
专家表示,在美国,除了初始奥密克戎病毒株以外,JN.1可能超过其他所有病毒株。但各国的新冠疫情略有不同甚至有很大区别,这取决于我们已知的许多因素,例如天气、社交隔离、群体免疫力等,甚至还有一些我们尚不了解的因素。欧洲国家初始奥密克戎疫情的规模小于美国,这可能是这些国家目前JN.1疫情创纪录的原因。
JN.1从何而来?
科学家们并不能完全确定JN.1及其前身BA.2.86从何而来,这个问题可能永远都不会有答案。有人认为,BA.2.86可能是在免疫力低下的BA.2患者或者长期感染BA.2的患者体内,经过一年多时间进化而成。BA.2在2022年初被发现,因其在PCR检测中能够逃过检测的能力而被称为“隐形奥密克戎”。
大多数人的免疫系统能够在相对较短的时间内击败新冠病毒和其他变异株。但免疫系统受损的患者,其感染可能持续几个月甚至数年,这让病毒有机会围绕人体免疫系统不断进化。在这些情况下,病毒可能“藏匿在”我们意想不到的地方,例如胃肠道系统。此时,在呼吸道系统中进行普通新冠检测,结果将是阴性。但患者依旧处在被感染状态,而且可能通过粪便污染传播病毒。
在长期感染者体内进化的新变异株,很少有机会重新在人群中传播,而且即使能够传播也不太可能马上超过优势流行新冠病毒株。为什么呢?变异株在一个宿主体内,没有必要为了在适者生存的进化过程中获胜而形成更高的传播力。但在全球传播的变异株有几个月时间,出现新的突变,并增强其传播能力。
格里高利在今年秋天对《财富》杂志表示,一旦BA.2.86等高度突变的变异株开始大范围传播,它就会开始自我完善的过程。他当时表示:“Pirola在宿主体内进化,已经获得了足够的立足点,这意味着我们应该要保持警惕。”
不出所料,BA.2.86继续进化,最终出现了标志性的刺突蛋白L455S突变,其逃脱先前感染和接种疫苗形成的抗体的能力得到了增强。这就是JN.1能够迅速传播而BA.2.86却没有形成气候的原因。
专家表示,原始奥密克戎也是类似的情况。BA.1.1.529是高度突变的原始奥密克戎毒株,它与前身德尔塔病毒几乎没有相似之处。但它并没有快速传播。在获得了能令它更快传播的新突变之后,BA.1.1.529变成了BA.1.1.529.1.1,简写为BA.1.1,最终席卷全球。
JN.1未来会走向何方?
简而言之:无法确定。
JN.1可能像BA.2.86一样继续进化,或者像所有新冠毒株一样消失。变异株之间的竞争是真实的适者生存游戏,它们之间会继续竞争,通过一种名为趋同进化的平行进化获得相同或类似的突变。JN.1可能获得目前还没有获得的许多突变,这可能令其后代变得更加棘手。
有专家表示,JN.1可能进化出最新的主要新冠变异株,就像目前所有新出现的主要新冠变异株都从奥密克戎进化而来一样。换言之,这可能是疫情新时代的起点。
另外,新冠病毒可能再次令全世界措手不及。长期感染看似古老的病毒株的患者体内存在高度突变变异株,可能再次传播。因此,格里高利认为,公共卫生官员在制定未来计划时,不能只专注于目前的新冠疫情状况。因为,有时候,“不可思议的一次性事件可能再次发生”。
变异株跟踪研究人员是否会给JN.1一个新“代号”,例如对Pirola或Kraken的命名?
格里高利表示,人们针对是否要给JN.1一个单独的“绰号”进行了“许多讨论”。一方面,它与其母系病毒BA.2.86“Pirola”的区别只有一种重大突变。另一方面,它正在以一种Pirola从未有过的势头快速传播。
目前,这些跟踪者决定不为JN.1重新命名,并将其作为Pirola家族的一员。
他表示:“关键不在于某一种变异株,或者它们是否会像最初的奥密克戎一样引发一波疫情。关键是进化谱系的观念。这符合我们最初的观点:问题不在于变异株[BA.2.86]本身,”而是它会进化出哪些亚分支——可能是一系列新变异株,例如奥密克戎进化出既有相似之处又有区别的变异株,它们的免疫逃脱力和感染宿主的能力日益增强。(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
The World Health Organization is keeping an eye on a new COVID variant—one that, in some countries, is sending wastewater levels of the virus skyrocketing to the highest point ever seen.
The global health watchdog on Tuesday promoted JN.1—an Omicron spawn experts flagged this summer for its unusually large number of mutations—to a “variant of interest.” It’s second only in alert level to “variant of concern,” a designation Omicron, Delta, and Alpha had until the organization removed their status.
How dangerous is JN.1, how likely are you to get it, and could it derail your holiday plans? Here’s what you need to know, according to the experts Fortune spoke with.
What in the heck does JN.1 even mean?
JN.1 is yet another Omicron offshoot, technically. It evolved from BA.2.86, a COVID variant that caught the attention of experts this summer because of its large number of mutations compared with the original Omicron: a whopping 30 or more, depending on how you count them. BA.2.86 was—and still is—the most genetically distinct COVID variant to have evolved since Omicron, which made a global splash in 2022. It was so distinct, many experts said, that it warranted a new Greek letter from the World Health Organization.
Along with BA.2.86’s laundry list of mutations came the ability for the virus to evade immunity and infect cells with increasing ease. Variant trackers dubbed BA.2.86 “Pirola”—after an asteroid—as a nod to their belief that the new variant, or one of its offspring, may eventually warrant a new Greek letter: presumably Pi or Rho, next in the alphabet.
BA.2.86 failed to take off in the way it seemed poised to, though it managed to show strong growth in some regions of the world. As early as August, however, experts warned that while BA.2.86 may not be the black swan “Omicron event” some thought it was, one of its descendants could be.
Enter JN.1. While the letters assigned to the strain make it sound like it’s coming from left field, it’s not. It’s BA.2.86 plus one additional major mutation that makes a lot of difference: L455S, which boosts its ability to evade antibodies from prior infection and vaccination. L455S is the reason JN.1 has “sprouted wings,” while BA.2.86 did not.
Technically, JN.1 is BA.2.86.1.1. But the naming system for COVID variants calls for the string of letters to truncate after three additional sets of numbers and periods. So BA.2.86.1.1 “rolled over” to JN.1.
Now you know.
What are the symptoms of JN.1?
It’s too early to tell if the symptoms of JN.1 differ from typical Omicron symptoms. So far, there’s not much evidence that this is the case, though there are reports of increased diarrhea that may or may not be associated with the variant.
Is JN.1 more dangerous than other Omicron variants?
It’s also too early to say. Hospitalizations are rising in some areas like New York City, considered a “bellwether state” that may forecast what’s to come for much of the rest of the country. But rising hospitalizations could be the result of waning population immunity, at least in part. And other variants undoubtedly contribute to hospitalizations and deaths.
In the U.S., COVID hospitalizations were slowly rising as of Dec. 9, while deaths were holding steady, according to the latest data made available by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
JN.1 looks to be around 40-50 times more immune evasive than BA.2.86, Jay Weiland, a leading COVID modeler, told Fortune. Just how its greatly increased immune evasion will play out in various populations has yet to be seen.
Do COVID vaccines work against JN.1?
Yes. They’re thought to provide good protection against severe illness, hospitalization, and death.
“For those interested in gaining immunity with less risk than COVID-19 illness, the monovalent XBB vaccine released a few months ago provides substantial immune response to the JN.1 variant,” Dr. Stuart Ray, vice chair of medicine for data integrity and analytics at Johns Hopkins’ Department of Medicine, told Fortune.
“Like prior variants that have gained against others, it’s not clear whether JN.1 will result in significantly higher rates of severe COVID-19 or long COVID, but I’m seeing a lot of respiratory illness due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza in my hospital patients,” he added. “So it makes sense to take reasonable precautions in this respiratory virus season.”
Should I be masking again, with JN.1 on the loose?
It would be wise to, many experts say. Ray recommends “wearing an effective respirator in public spaces, especially indoors, when it doesn’t interfere with essential tasks.”
“Not a bad way to keep your face warm, too,” he added.
Does Paxlovid work against JN.1?
Yes, though experts caution that patients who are prescribed Paxlovid and stop taking the pill midway through, owing to its off-putting metallic taste, could be contributing to the virus’s potential evolution around the antiviral, eventually rendering it ineffective.
Do at-home COVID tests still work with JN.1?
Yes, though they aren’t, and never were, completely accurate. Many people test too early in their infection or too late. At both times, viral loads may not be significant enough to turn the test positive. If you have symptoms but test negative, wait another couple of days and test again, experts recommend.
The WHO just declared JN.1 a ‘variant of interest.’ What does that mean?
When the WHO declared JN.1 a variant of interest Dec. 19, it was calling for vigilance and increased sequencing by health authorities across the globe.
But in a practical sense, and for the average person, “it doesn’t change anything,” Ryan Gregory, a biology professor at the University of Guelph in Ontario, Canada, told Fortune. For over a year, Gregory and a team of “variant trackers” have devised “street names” for COVID variants, in a bid to better communicate the evolving Omicron threat to the public.
“I do think that, in some ways, it’s good that they’re indicating this is still evolving and still worth monitoring,” he added.
Just how fast is JN.1 spreading?
With sequencing of COVID viral samples at a near all-time low, it’s hard to say. We do know, however, that JN.1 “appears to be outcompeting other circulating variants worldwide, including its recent ancestor BA.2.86 and siblings,” Ray said.
A good way to gauge how vast a variant is spreading is its “doubling time,” or the time it takes to double its number of sequences in a particular area. It’s hard to nail down an accurate doubling time on new variants due to low sequencing. JN.1’s immediate predecessor, BA.2.86.1, was doubling about once every two weeks. That pales in comparison to the doubling time of the original Omicron BA.1.1: every 2.5-3 days, according to Weiland. Still, the doubling time of the JN.1 family is enough to make it stand out in the current landscape, comprised of much slower-growing variants.
In what countries is JN.1 causing, or contributing to, a record level of COVID spread?
Countries that are currently seeing all-time highs of COVID in wastewater—higher than even the Omicron spike of early 2022—include Germany, the Netherlands, and Denmark, according to Weiland.
A JN.1 spike in the U.S. could eclipse all other spikes except the initial Omicron spike, experts say. Each country, however, has slightly or even vastly different COVID waves, depending on variables we know of—like weather, social distancing, population immunity, and the like—and even ones we’re not yet aware of. European countries had smaller initial Omicron waves than the U.S. saw, which may be why they’re seeing record-setting JN.1 waves now.
Where did JN.1 come from?
Scientists aren’t exactly sure where JN.1 and its predecessor, BA.2.86, came from and likely never will be. It’s thought that BA.2.86 evolved in the body of an immunocompromised patient—or one with a long-term infection—of BA.2 for over a year. BA.2, if you will remember, hit radars in early 2022 and was known as “stealth Omicron” for its ability to evade detection on PCR tests.
In most people, the immune system defeats the COVID virus, and others, in relatively short order. In those with a compromised immune system, however, infections can remains for months or even years, giving the virus a chance to repeatedly evolve around human immunity. In these cases, the virus may “hole up” somewhere we wouldn’t expect it to, like the GI system. If this happens, typical COVID tests, which involve the respiratory system, will return negative. But the person is still infectious and can spread the virus, potentially through fecal contamination.
New variants that evolve in those with long-term infections are unlikely to immediately out-compete top COVID strains, on the rare occasion that they spill back over into the population. Why? Contained within a single host, a variant has no need to develop increased transmissibility to win an evolutionary survival-of-the-fittest. Globally circulating variants, on the other hand, have had months to pick up new mutations and refine their ability to spread.
Once a highly mutated variant like BA.2.86 escapes into the broader population, it’s likely to begin its own process of refinement, Gregory told Fortune this fall. “The fact that Pirola has gained enough of a foothold to be evolving among hosts now means we need to be wary,” he said at the time.
As predicted, BA.2.86 underwent further evolution, eventually picking up the signature spike protein L455S mutation, which boosts its ability to evade antibodies from prior infection and vaccination. It’s the reason JN.1 has taken off, whereas BA.2.86 did not.
It’s a similar situation to what occurred with the original Omicron, experts say. BA.1.1.529 was the original, highly mutated Omicron, with very little similarities to its predecessor, Delta. It never took off. When it acquired a new mutation that allowed it to transmit faster, it became BA.1.1.529.1.1, shortened to BA.1.1—and that’s what eventually took over the world.
Where is JN.1 going?
In short: Nowhere.
JN.1 will continue to evolve—just as BA.2.86 did—or die, as all strains of COVID do. Variants continually compete in a veritable survival of the fittest, acquiring the same or similar mutations through a form of parallel evolution known as convergent evolution. There are a number of mutations JN.1 doesn’t currently have that it could acquire, potentially making its descendants more troubling than JN.1 itself.
Some experts say that most new major COVID variants could evolve from JN.1, in the way that all new major COVID variants currently evolve from Omicron. In other words, this could be the start of a new era in the pandemic.
On the other hand, COVID could always throw the world another curveball. Highly mutated variants from patients with long-term infections of seemingly ancient strains exist and can always re-enter the population. That’s why public health officials can’t simply focus on the current COVID landscape when planning for the future, Gregory said. Because sometimes, “weird, one-off things come back.”
Will the variant trackers assign JN.1 a new ‘street name’ like Pirola or Kraken?
The group has had “many discussions” as to whether it should give JN.1 its own nickname, Gregory said. On the one hand, only one major mutation separates it from its parent, BA.2.86 “Pirola.” On the other hand, it’s taking off in a way Pirola never did.
For now, the group has decided not to assign a new name to JN.1, and to reference it as a member of the Pirola family.
“What matters is not individual variants and whether they are going to cause a wave as big as the first Omicron. It’s the idea of evolving lineages,” he noted. “It’s consistent with what we said initially: It’s not the variant [BA.2.86], per se, that’s going to be an issue,” but likely what will evolve from it—a whole new line of COVID variants, potentially, in the way Omicron expanded into a family of diverse-yet-similar variants that became increasingly adept at evading immunity and infecting hosts.