德国这个超级金融大国近期陷入了困境。作为欧洲最大的经济体,德国在2023年年初蓝筹股指数创历史新高,但实际上陷入了技术性衰退,2023年第三季度,德国经济持续萎缩。德国一直是一个净出口国,但全球需求低迷削弱了德国在这方面的优势,导致德国经济陷入停滞和衰退。
但德国面临的问题不仅限于全球贸易流动。上周,德国农民发起抗议,全国火车司机罢工,这严重影响了国内的出行。上周之后,交通拥堵可能还会持续更长的时间,而且由于德国总理奥拉夫·朔尔茨领导的联合政府引起民众的严重不满,其造成的连锁反应可能会影响德国今年的大选。
到底是什么导致了罢工和抗议?
1月8日,德国农民走上街头,用拖拉机阻断了无数公路和高速公路。他们抗议的原因是:突然失去了政府补贴。德国联邦资金枯竭的原因有些复杂,但这凸显出德国局势之严峻。
2023年,朔尔茨遭遇了不愉快的意外:德国法院的一项判决,让朔尔茨面临一笔600亿欧元(约合656亿美元)的预算缺口,判决认为朔尔茨不能像以前一样,继续将新冠基金用于政策相关的激励和补贴。政府急于填补预算缺口,取消了农业部门的税收优惠。新冠基金原先被用于补贴芯片制造和绿色能源,因此农民不知道为什么他们要为此付出代价。
农民表示,2023年12月,柏林发生了一轮抗议之后,德国政府放弃了原计划的一些取消补贴的政策,但剩余的政策仍然会影响那些依赖农业的家庭的生计。
据美国消费者新闻与商业频道(CNBC)在上周早些时候报道,抗议者的标语上写道:“如果农民被毁灭,食物就只能依赖进口”、“无农民、无食物、无未来”等。
抗议活动正在引起德国民众的关注,民调显示,朔尔茨的领导越来越不受欢迎。抗议活动提高了极右翼政党德国另类选择党的声望。该政党支持抗议,目的是希望在今年晚些时候的州选举中赢得政治地位。
在德国各地爆发农民抗议的同时,1月10日,德国又爆发了持续三天的铁路工人罢工。德国GDL Union组织的罢工导致国有企业德国铁路(Deutsche Bahn)运营的成千上万列火车停运,包括货运和客运列车。
据多家媒体报道,德国铁路的发言人安雅·布尔克称:“火车司机工会GDL的罢工对德国的铁路服务造成了严重影响。我们对火车出行受到的限制表示抱歉,希望无法重新安排行程的旅客能够抵达目的地。”
火车工人罢工的目的是要求将工作时间从38小时缩短到35小时,同时发放全额工资。GDL还要求每个月涨薪约606美元,并提供一次性通胀奖金。据《金融时报》(Financial Times)报道,GDL的负责人克劳斯·威瑟尔斯基称,工会将“做出让步,并逐步缩短每周工作时长”,但如果到1月12日之前无法达成可以接受的协议,工会就将发起另一轮劳工行动。
这些抗议导致德国80%的长途列车停运,这在德国还要面对宏观经济困境的时候,增加了朔尔茨的压力。第四季度,德国处于经济萎缩的边缘,使其更接近衰退的边缘。德国制造业和建筑业作为经济核心产业,同样面临困境,充其量只能实现小幅复苏。
尽管德国经济没有快速反弹的迹象,但德国中央银行(Bundesbank)预计国内经济会出现一些好消息。上个月,德国央行预测,2024年,通胀将会降温,GDP会小幅增长,实际家庭收入将会增长。
德国央行的行长约阿希姆·纳格尔在一份报告里说:“德国的通货膨胀正在下降,但现在下确切结论依旧为时尚早。从2024年年初开始,德国经济可能会回到扩张轨道,并逐步加速。”(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
德国这个超级金融大国近期陷入了困境。作为欧洲最大的经济体,德国在2023年年初蓝筹股指数创历史新高,但实际上陷入了技术性衰退,2023年第三季度,德国经济持续萎缩。德国一直是一个净出口国,但全球需求低迷削弱了德国在这方面的优势,导致德国经济陷入停滞和衰退。
但德国面临的问题不仅限于全球贸易流动。上周,德国农民发起抗议,全国火车司机罢工,这严重影响了国内的出行。上周之后,交通拥堵可能还会持续更长的时间,而且由于德国总理奥拉夫·朔尔茨领导的联合政府引起民众的严重不满,其造成的连锁反应可能会影响德国今年的大选。
到底是什么导致了罢工和抗议?
1月8日,德国农民走上街头,用拖拉机阻断了无数公路和高速公路。他们抗议的原因是:突然失去了政府补贴。德国联邦资金枯竭的原因有些复杂,但这凸显出德国局势之严峻。
2023年,朔尔茨遭遇了不愉快的意外:德国法院的一项判决,让朔尔茨面临一笔600亿欧元(约合656亿美元)的预算缺口,判决认为朔尔茨不能像以前一样,继续将新冠基金用于政策相关的激励和补贴。政府急于填补预算缺口,取消了农业部门的税收优惠。新冠基金原先被用于补贴芯片制造和绿色能源,因此农民不知道为什么他们要为此付出代价。
农民表示,2023年12月,柏林发生了一轮抗议之后,德国政府放弃了原计划的一些取消补贴的政策,但剩余的政策仍然会影响那些依赖农业的家庭的生计。
据美国消费者新闻与商业频道(CNBC)在上周早些时候报道,抗议者的标语上写道:“如果农民被毁灭,食物就只能依赖进口”、“无农民、无食物、无未来”等。
抗议活动正在引起德国民众的关注,民调显示,朔尔茨的领导越来越不受欢迎。抗议活动提高了极右翼政党德国另类选择党的声望。该政党支持抗议,目的是希望在今年晚些时候的州选举中赢得政治地位。
在德国各地爆发农民抗议的同时,1月10日,德国又爆发了持续三天的铁路工人罢工。德国GDL Union组织的罢工导致国有企业德国铁路(Deutsche Bahn)运营的成千上万列火车停运,包括货运和客运列车。
据多家媒体报道,德国铁路的发言人安雅·布尔克称:“火车司机工会GDL的罢工对德国的铁路服务造成了严重影响。我们对火车出行受到的限制表示抱歉,希望无法重新安排行程的旅客能够抵达目的地。”
火车工人罢工的目的是要求将工作时间从38小时缩短到35小时,同时发放全额工资。GDL还要求每个月涨薪约606美元,并提供一次性通胀奖金。据《金融时报》(Financial Times)报道,GDL的负责人克劳斯·威瑟尔斯基称,工会将“做出让步,并逐步缩短每周工作时长”,但如果到1月12日之前无法达成可以接受的协议,工会就将发起另一轮劳工行动。
这些抗议导致德国80%的长途列车停运,这在德国还要面对宏观经济困境的时候,增加了朔尔茨的压力。第四季度,德国处于经济萎缩的边缘,使其更接近衰退的边缘。德国制造业和建筑业作为经济核心产业,同样面临困境,充其量只能实现小幅复苏。
尽管德国经济没有快速反弹的迹象,但德国中央银行(Bundesbank)预计国内经济会出现一些好消息。上个月,德国央行预测,2024年,通胀将会降温,GDP会小幅增长,实际家庭收入将会增长。
德国央行的行长约阿希姆·纳格尔在一份报告里说:“德国的通货膨胀正在下降,但现在下确切结论依旧为时尚早。从2024年年初开始,德国经济可能会回到扩张轨道,并逐步加速。”(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
The German financial superpower isn’t flying high these days. Europe’s largest economy, which was in a technical recession in early 2023 as its blue-chip index hit a record high, continued shrinking in the third quarter of 2023. Famously a long-time net exporter to other countries, global demand has chipped away at exactly that strength, leading to stagnancy and reversal.
But its woes extend beyond the global trading flows. Last week, Germany faced protests by farmers and a national train drivers’ strike, both of which have disrupted travel in the country. The transport snarls stand the risk of lasting longer than last week, but their ripple-effects could go on to impact major elections at the country this year amid overwhelming dissatisfaction with Germany’s ruling coalition government led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
What’s prompted it all?
On January 8, German farmers took to the streets, blocking numerous roads and highways with tractors. Their cause: The sudden loss of government subsidies. The reason why the federal cash dry up are a bit complex, but show how tricky the situation is in Germany.
Scholz got an unpleasant surprise in 2023, when a court ruling left him staring at a €60 billion hole ($65.6 billion) in the budget—the ruling held that Scholz couldn’t keep using COVID-19 funds the way he had been, for policy-related incentives and subsidies. As the government scrambles to cover the shortfall, the tax breaks for the agriculture sector went out the door. The COVID-19 funds had been earmarked for subsidies in chipmaking and green energy, so the farmers don’t see why they should pay the price.
The government walked back on some of the planned cuts following a round of protests in Berlin in December, but the remaining ones could still hurt the livelihoods of those dependent on agriculture, farmers argue.
Signs at the protest read “when farmers are ruined, food has to be imported” and “no farmer, no food, no future,” CNBC reported earlier last week.
The protests are gripping Germany at a time when polls have shown the increasing unpopularity of Scholz’s leadership. This has bolstered the far-right Alternative for Germany party, which is backing the protest in an effort to gain political ground in the state elections later this year.
As the farmers’ protests carried on across Germany, a three-day rail strike kicked off on January 10. A strike by Germany’s GDL Union resulted in thousands of trains—serving both, cargo and passengers—operated by state-owned Deutsche Bahn to pause.
“The strike by the train drivers’ union GDL has had a massive impact on train services in Germany,” DB spokeswoman Anja Broeker said, multiple outlets reported. “We regret the restrictions and hope that many people who were unable to reschedule their journey will get to their destination.”
The union of train workers are fighting to bring working hours down from 38 to 35 hours, while on full pay. GDL is also demanding a pay hike of roughly $606 a month along with a one-off inflation bonus. The GDL chief Claus Weselsky said that the union would “compromise and reduce weekly working hours gradually” but if by January 12 an agreeable offer isn’t made, the union would launch another round of industrial action, according to the Financial Times.
These protests, which have resulted in 80% of long-distance trains grinding to a halt, are also adding to pressures on Scholz as Germany also navigates macroeconomic tightrope. Germany is at the brink of contracting in the fourth quarter, pushing it closer to recession territory. The country’s manufacturing and construction sectors, which are core to its economy, have also been struggling and are expected to have modest recovery, at best.
Even if few signs point to a rapid bounce-bank, Germany’s central bank Bundesbank anticipates some positive news for its economy. Last month, the bank predicted inflation to cool down, GDP growth to increase slightly and real household income to rise in 2024.
“Inflation in Germany is on the decline, but it is still too early to sound the all-clear,” Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said in a report. “As from the beginning of 2024, the German economy is likely to return to an expansion path and gradually pick up speed.”