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微软CEO解锁新成就:微软市值突破3万亿美元

PAOLO CONFINO
2024-01-26

在前两周,微软甚至超过苹果,成为全球最有价值的公司。

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科技公司的工作曾经被认为是就业保障的代名词。但去年科技行业经历了十多年来规模最大的裁员潮,再加上可能抢走工作的人工智能的兴起,现在科技行业的从业者前景不容乐观,他们可能面临失去生计来源的风险。

就业市场研究公司Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.的报告称,除了2020年疫情导致的裁员外,去年科技行业的年度裁员人数创下自大衰退以来的最高纪录,科技公司的预算中减少了超过72万个就业岗位。这种趋势延续到了2024年第一个月,谷歌(Google)和亚马逊(Amazon)以及多家小规模科技公司在最近几周宣布继续裁员。

为什么公司现在裁员?行业观察家认为,对利润的追求、疫情期间大肆招聘的后遗症、快速发展的人工智能和有些讽刺的通胀增速放缓,都影响了这些公司的决策,而裁员时机的选择可以归咎于公司的预算时间表。但令人欣慰的是,劳动力市场依旧紧张,被裁的科技行业从业者应该能在其他公司找到工作。

谷歌和亚马逊削减成本以提高利润

谷歌在本周宣布裁员时明确表示,裁员数百人是为了进一步削减成本。谷歌CEO桑达尔·皮查伊在一份备忘录中对员工表示,公司希望增加对AI等新兴领域的投资,同时削减其他领域的成本。他在经过《财富》杂志确认的备忘录中写道:“我们有宏大的目标,今年我们将投资公司的重点领域。”谷歌发言人称此次裁员是“负责任地投资公司影响最大的重点领域”,并表示“许多团队成员做出了改变,以提升自己的效率和工作绩效”。一些谷歌员工对这种裁员理由予以反驳。Alphabet工会的成员在一份新闻稿中批评公司“愚蠢的、误入歧途的决策”。

其他市值达数十亿美元的科技公司也宣布裁员,如亚马逊宣布在媒体部门裁员数百名员工,包括Prime Video、Amazon MGM Studios、视频流媒体平台Twitch和有声书与播客部门Audible等。亚马逊去年裁员数万人,但裁员的部门对公司的利润没有太大影响,包括语音助手Alexa。而本月裁员的目的似乎是在高成本、低利润的内容领域削减成本。亚马逊在内容方面的支出,仅次于奈飞(Netflix)和迪士尼(Disney),排在第三位。

疫情期间大量招聘的后遗症

Challenger公司认为,科技巨头继续裁员的另外一个原因是,在2021年和2022年期间,许多大公司“大肆招聘”,因此它们依旧有大量员工储备。去年裁员的原因是,许多公司意识到它们之前过度招聘后,选择削减员工规模。而有些公司之所以最近裁员,是因为它们意识到第一轮裁员的力度不够。

Challenger表示,从招聘到裁员,“科技行业是人才周转速度最快的行业之一”。

经过疫情期间的繁荣之后,由于利率长时间维持在高位,科技公司也在为增长速度放缓做准备。长期高利率也让公司重新关注盈利能力。Twitch CEO丹·克兰西上周写道:“与科技行业的其他许多公司一样,我们现在会根据目前的业务规模决定员工人数。”他还表示,公司出于谨慎,“保守预测了我们对未来增长的预期”。

AI在科技行业其他领域中的崛起,也让科技行业的招聘环境变得更严峻。随着AI聊天机器人ChatGPT的爆火,科技公司纷纷展开军备竞赛,大力招聘AI相关岗位,希望在所谓的下一次科技繁荣中领先。与此同时,科技公司开始缩减非AI领域的规模,以控制支出并维持公司的盈利能力。Challenger表示,大家担心AI会抢走人类的工作,这一点也可能产生了影响,但在目前的裁员中它的影响有限。报告显示,去年因为AI被裁员的人数为4,000人,但Challenger表示,“这在未来应该引起我们的担忧”。

通胀下降是坏消息

Challenger表示,讽刺的是,虽然通胀下降是消费者的福音,但它却会影响科技行业的裁员。截至上个月,美国的年度通胀率约为3%,远低于去年年初的6%。Challenger还表示,由于物价不再快速上涨,公司更难提高服务价格,因为客户的薪酬也受到了通胀的影响,他们可能不愿意为这些服务支付更高的价格。

他说道:“公司更难像以前一样涨价”,同时还要支付上涨的劳动力成本。 “因此本轮通胀周期是这些公司裁员的主要原因之一。”

他说道,发现自己即将失业绝非好事,但他解释称,这是比大多数时候更好的一个时期,因为“失业率依旧低于4%,而且许多失业者现在有较高的概率很快找到新工作。”

合适的时机:裁员不止会发生在年末

公司选择在1月裁员,还有另外一个原因,那就是公司的预算时间表。经济学家瑞秋·索德伯格对《今日美国》(USA Today)表示,每年12月和1月往往是裁员高峰,因为公司要为新一年的结构性调整做准备。

索德伯格是就业市场分析公司Lightcast的高级经济学家。她对《今日美国》称:“许多公司的财年在12月或1月结束。他们会仔细研究资产负债表状况和公司的业绩,并根据研究结果进行决策。这些决策有时候会对员工产生影响。”

Challenger对《财富》杂志表示,“随着时间的推移,财年末会发生变化”,这让一些公司可以避免在节日前后裁员。但这种变化对上班族而言喜忧参半,因为这可能意味着与以前相比,裁员造成的痛苦会更深刻地延续到新的一年。

12月的裁员人数环比减少了24%,是2023年月度裁员人数第二低的一个月份。与2022年12月相比,今年的裁员人数减少了20%。Challenger认为,至少在新年的第一个季度,还会有更多裁员。

重视盈利能力

在媒体等相关行业,在严酷的经济环境下,公司关注的焦点转向了盈利能力,因此这些行业也在继续裁员。

媒体行业的裁员力度甚至超过了其他行业。去年,媒体行业裁员超过21,400人,比2022年同期的约3,750人增加了超过460%。除了2020年以外,这是该行业自2009年以来裁员人数最多的一年。媒体行业在2009年裁员超过22,000人。

在11月的一轮裁员中,网络出版商Vox Media裁员4%。而在3月初,该公司已经裁员7%。《Vogue》、《智族》(GQ)和《名利场》(Vanity Fair)等杂志的出版商康泰纳仕集团(Conde Nast),在11月裁员5%。本周,《体育画报》(Sports Illustrated)宣布将裁撤整个新闻编辑部,而《洛杉矶时报》(Los Angeles Times)的员工则走上街头,抗议该报纸的老板承诺的“大幅”裁员。

Challenger表示,新的一年预计将会延续裁员潮。他说道:“过去一年,我们看到每个行业的裁员人数都有所增加。这只是今年裁员人数最多的三个行业。”(财富中文网)

译者:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

科技公司的工作曾经被认为是就业保障的代名词。但去年科技行业经历了十多年来规模最大的裁员潮,再加上可能抢走工作的人工智能的兴起,现在科技行业的从业者前景不容乐观,他们可能面临失去生计来源的风险。

就业市场研究公司Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.的报告称,除了2020年疫情导致的裁员外,去年科技行业的年度裁员人数创下自大衰退以来的最高纪录,科技公司的预算中减少了超过72万个就业岗位。这种趋势延续到了2024年第一个月,谷歌(Google)和亚马逊(Amazon)以及多家小规模科技公司在最近几周宣布继续裁员。

为什么公司现在裁员?行业观察家认为,对利润的追求、疫情期间大肆招聘的后遗症、快速发展的人工智能和有些讽刺的通胀增速放缓,都影响了这些公司的决策,而裁员时机的选择可以归咎于公司的预算时间表。但令人欣慰的是,劳动力市场依旧紧张,被裁的科技行业从业者应该能在其他公司找到工作。

谷歌和亚马逊削减成本以提高利润

谷歌在本周宣布裁员时明确表示,裁员数百人是为了进一步削减成本。谷歌CEO桑达尔·皮查伊在一份备忘录中对员工表示,公司希望增加对AI等新兴领域的投资,同时削减其他领域的成本。他在经过《财富》杂志确认的备忘录中写道:“我们有宏大的目标,今年我们将投资公司的重点领域。”谷歌发言人称此次裁员是“负责任地投资公司影响最大的重点领域”,并表示“许多团队成员做出了改变,以提升自己的效率和工作绩效”。一些谷歌员工对这种裁员理由予以反驳。Alphabet工会的成员在一份新闻稿中批评公司“愚蠢的、误入歧途的决策”。

其他市值达数十亿美元的科技公司也宣布裁员,如亚马逊宣布在媒体部门裁员数百名员工,包括Prime Video、Amazon MGM Studios、视频流媒体平台Twitch和有声书与播客部门Audible等。亚马逊去年裁员数万人,但裁员的部门对公司的利润没有太大影响,包括语音助手Alexa。而本月裁员的目的似乎是在高成本、低利润的内容领域削减成本。亚马逊在内容方面的支出,仅次于奈飞(Netflix)和迪士尼(Disney),排在第三位。

疫情期间大量招聘的后遗症

Challenger公司认为,科技巨头继续裁员的另外一个原因是,在2021年和2022年期间,许多大公司“大肆招聘”,因此它们依旧有大量员工储备。去年裁员的原因是,许多公司意识到它们之前过度招聘后,选择削减员工规模。而有些公司之所以最近裁员,是因为它们意识到第一轮裁员的力度不够。

Challenger表示,从招聘到裁员,“科技行业是人才周转速度最快的行业之一”。

经过疫情期间的繁荣之后,由于利率长时间维持在高位,科技公司也在为增长速度放缓做准备。长期高利率也让公司重新关注盈利能力。Twitch CEO丹·克兰西上周写道:“与科技行业的其他许多公司一样,我们现在会根据目前的业务规模决定员工人数。”他还表示,公司出于谨慎,“保守预测了我们对未来增长的预期”。

AI在科技行业其他领域中的崛起,也让科技行业的招聘环境变得更严峻。随着AI聊天机器人ChatGPT的爆火,科技公司纷纷展开军备竞赛,大力招聘AI相关岗位,希望在所谓的下一次科技繁荣中领先。与此同时,科技公司开始缩减非AI领域的规模,以控制支出并维持公司的盈利能力。Challenger表示,大家担心AI会抢走人类的工作,这一点也可能产生了影响,但在目前的裁员中它的影响有限。报告显示,去年因为AI被裁员的人数为4,000人,但Challenger表示,“这在未来应该引起我们的担忧”。

通胀下降是坏消息

Challenger表示,讽刺的是,虽然通胀下降是消费者的福音,但它却会影响科技行业的裁员。截至上个月,美国的年度通胀率约为3%,远低于去年年初的6%。Challenger还表示,由于物价不再快速上涨,公司更难提高服务价格,因为客户的薪酬也受到了通胀的影响,他们可能不愿意为这些服务支付更高的价格。

他说道:“公司更难像以前一样涨价”,同时还要支付上涨的劳动力成本。 “因此本轮通胀周期是这些公司裁员的主要原因之一。”

他说道,发现自己即将失业绝非好事,但他解释称,这是比大多数时候更好的一个时期,因为“失业率依旧低于4%,而且许多失业者现在有较高的概率很快找到新工作。”

合适的时机:裁员不止会发生在年末

公司选择在1月裁员,还有另外一个原因,那就是公司的预算时间表。经济学家瑞秋·索德伯格对《今日美国》(USA Today)表示,每年12月和1月往往是裁员高峰,因为公司要为新一年的结构性调整做准备。

索德伯格是就业市场分析公司Lightcast的高级经济学家。她对《今日美国》称:“许多公司的财年在12月或1月结束。他们会仔细研究资产负债表状况和公司的业绩,并根据研究结果进行决策。这些决策有时候会对员工产生影响。”

Challenger对《财富》杂志表示,“随着时间的推移,财年末会发生变化”,这让一些公司可以避免在节日前后裁员。但这种变化对上班族而言喜忧参半,因为这可能意味着与以前相比,裁员造成的痛苦会更深刻地延续到新的一年。

12月的裁员人数环比减少了24%,是2023年月度裁员人数第二低的一个月份。与2022年12月相比,今年的裁员人数减少了20%。Challenger认为,至少在新年的第一个季度,还会有更多裁员。

重视盈利能力

在媒体等相关行业,在严酷的经济环境下,公司关注的焦点转向了盈利能力,因此这些行业也在继续裁员。

媒体行业的裁员力度甚至超过了其他行业。去年,媒体行业裁员超过21,400人,比2022年同期的约3,750人增加了超过460%。除了2020年以外,这是该行业自2009年以来裁员人数最多的一年。媒体行业在2009年裁员超过22,000人。

在11月的一轮裁员中,网络出版商Vox Media裁员4%。而在3月初,该公司已经裁员7%。《Vogue》、《智族》(GQ)和《名利场》(Vanity Fair)等杂志的出版商康泰纳仕集团(Conde Nast),在11月裁员5%。本周,《体育画报》(Sports Illustrated)宣布将裁撤整个新闻编辑部,而《洛杉矶时报》(Los Angeles Times)的员工则走上街头,抗议该报纸的老板承诺的“大幅”裁员。

Challenger表示,新的一年预计将会延续裁员潮。他说道:“过去一年,我们看到每个行业的裁员人数都有所增加。这只是今年裁员人数最多的三个行业。”(财富中文网)

译者:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

Technology jobs were once synonymous with job security. But after last year, one of the biggest for layoffs in over a decade, combined with the rise of potentially job-killing artificial intelligence, a bleak horizon hovers over the humans in the technology industry who are now at risk of losing their livelihoods.

With the exception of the pandemic-driven job cuts in 2020, last year saw the highest yearly total of tech job cuts since the Great Recession, with companies cutting more than 720,000 jobs from their budgets, according to a report by Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc., a job market research company. And that’s continued into the first month of 2024, with Google, Amazon and smaller tech firms announcing further cuts in recent weeks.

But why are companies slashing jobs now? A drive for profitability, the remains of the pandemic hiring hangover, rapidly developing AI and—somewhat ironically—slowing inflation all play a part, according to industry watchers, while the timing can be blamed on the corporate budget calendar. But there’s a silver lining, with the still-tight labor market meaning laid-off techies should be able to find work elsewhere.

Cost-cutting as Google and Amazon search for profit

Google was clear in its job-cut announcement this week that it was cutting several hundred workers to further reduce costs. CEO Sundar Pichai told employees in a memo that the company wanted to invest more in emerging areas, including AI, while cutting costs elsewhere. “We have ambitious goals and will be investing in our big priorities this year,” he wrote in a memo confirmed by Fortune. A company spokesperson characterized the cuts as “responsibly investing in our company’s biggest priorities” and said “a number of our teams made changes to become more efficient and work better.” Some Google employees pushed back against this rationale, with members of the Alphabet Workers Union blasting the company’s “senseless, misguided corporate decision making” in a press release.

Other multi-billion-dollar tech companies, like Amazon, also announced hundreds of employee cuts from its media divisions, including Prime Video, Amazon MGM Studios, video streaming platform Twitch, and Audible, its audiobook and podcast division. After tens of thousands of cuts last year, which hit areas seen as less essential to the company’s bottom line including voice-assistant Alexa, this month’s cuts likewise attempts to slash costs in the high-cost, lower-profit area of content, where Amazon is the number-three spender after rivals Netflix and Disney.

Pandemic hiring boom still deflating

Another reason tech giants can keep reducing their ranks of employees is because their employee pools are still quite deep, after the “wild hiring spree” that many big companies embarked on during 2021 and 2022, as Challenger said. Last year’s cuts were a result of that spree, when many tech companies trimmed down their workforces after realizing they over-hired in prior years. With the latest cuts, some of those companies are realizing they didn’t cut enough in the first rounds.

From hiring to layoffs, “tech is one of the areas that has seen the quickest turnaround,” Challenger said.

After the pandemic boom, companies are also buckling in for slower growth ahead, with interest rates staying higher for longer—which also plays into the renewed focus on profitability. “As with many other companies in the tech space, we are now sizing our organization based upon the current scale of our business,” Twitch CEO Dan Clancy wrote last week, adding that his company is erring on the side of caution with “conservative predictions of how we expect to grow in the future.”

Relatedly, the rise of AI in other parts of the tech world has also made the climate frostier for technology hires. Since the massive popularization of AI chatbot ChatGPT, companies have been focused on hiring AI-adjacent roles in an arms race with competitors to get ahead of what’s believed to be the next tech boom. At the same time, they’re downsizing non-AI areas to manage their expenses and keep their businesses profitable. And AI’s feared job-killing aspects could have ramifications here, too, although it’s only playing a small role at the moment, Challenger said. Companies said AI was responsible for 4,000 cuts last year, per the report, but it “is something we’re concerned about for the future,” Challenger said.

Falling inflation is a bad sign

Ironically, the falling inflation that has been a boon for consumers is also a factor in the tech layoffs, according to Challenger. As of last month, annual inflation is around 3%, substantially lower than its 6% rate at the start of the year. But because prices are no longer rising as quickly, this makes it harder for companies to raise the cost of their services, as customers, whose paychecks are also stymied by inflation, may not be willing to pay more for them, Challenger said.

“It’s harder for companies to increase their prices as they have been,” while also paying for increased labor costs, he said. “So this inflationary cycle is one of the main culprits for these layoffs.”

It’s never great to find out you’re losing your job, he said, but explained that this period is better than most because “unemployment is still below 4%, and a lot of people that lose their jobs now have a high likelihood of finding more work pretty quickly.”

The right timing: layoffs are not just for year-end

There’s another reason for the timing of cuts in January, and that’s simply the corporate budget calendar. Job cuts tend to spike in December and January as companies prepare for structural changes heading into the new year, economist Rachel Sederberg told USA Today.

“A lot of firms are reaching their fiscal year-end,” Sederberg, senior economist at labor markets analytics firm Lightcast, told the outlet. “They’re taking a hard look at what’s going on their balance sheets as well as how the business is performing, and they make decisions along those lines. And sometimes that has implications for workers.”

Challenger told Fortune that “fiscal year-ends have shifted over time,” which allows some companies to refrain from cutting workers right before or after the holidays. That’s a bittersweet development for workers, since it can mean the pain of layoffs extends deeper into a new year than before.

In December, job cuts were down by 24% from the previous month and marked the second-lowest monthly cuts in 2023. Compared to December 2022, this year’s cuts are down by 20%. Challenger confirmed that more cuts should be expected at least into the first quarter of the new year.

Priorities in profitability

Related sectors, like media, have also seen more cuts as companies shift focus on profitability in a tough economic climate.

Job cuts in media industries have boomed even more than the rest. Last year, the industry scraped over 21,400 jobs, up more than 460% from about 3,750 jobs cut during the same period in 2022. With an exception of 2020, it’s the most jobs the industry has slashed since 2009, which saw over 22,000 jobs cut.

In a round of layoffs in November, online publisher Vox Media cut 4% of its staff. Earlier in March, the company slashed 7% of its workforce. Conde Nast, which publishes magazines like Vogue, GQ and Vanity Fair, fired 5% of its employees in November. This week, Sports Illustrated said it would cut its entire newsroom, while staff at the Los Angeles Times walked out in protest of “substantial” job cuts that the paper’s owner had promised.

Looking ahead, Challenger said that the cuts are expected to continue into the new year. “We’ve seen job cuts increase over every sector in the past year,” he said. “These three have just seen the most this year.”

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