美国雇主在12月份发布了900万个职位空缺,比11月份有所增加,这再次表明,尽管存在利率上升的不利因素,但美国就业市场依然具有韧性。
美国政府在周二的报告中对11月份的职位空缺数进行了上调(11月份的职位空缺数为890万)。自2022年3月达到创纪录的1200万个职位空缺峰值以来,职位空缺逐步下降,但仍处于历史高位:在2021年之前,月度职位空缺数从未超过800万。
不过,一个值得警惕的迹象是,12月份的裁员人数有所上升。辞职表明人们对自己找到更好工作的能力相对有信心。但美国辞职的人数降至2021年1月以来的最低水平。
尽管利率大幅上涨,导致消费者和企业借贷利率上升,但美国经济和就业市场仍然保持了惊人的持久性。美联储政策制定者在2022年3月至2023年7月期间11次上调基准利率,使其达到5.4%左右的23年高点。
美联储希望看到就业市场从2021年和2022年的火热水平中实现降温,从而减轻企业为吸引和留住员工而加薪,并通过提价将这些成本转嫁给客户的压力。
尽管就业增长的步伐仍然相对健康,但利率高企已导致招聘放缓:美国雇主去年增加了270万个工作岗位,低于2022年的480万个和2021年创纪录的730万个。据数据公司FactSet对预测者进行的一项调查显示,政府将于周五发布1月份就业报告,预计雇主增加了17.7万个就业岗位。
就业市场正通过减少职位空缺这样一种相对轻松的方式实现降温。尽管出现了一波引人注目的裁员潮,但整体经济部门的裁员人数仍然相对较少。
失业率已经连续23个月低于4%,这是自上世纪60年代以来持续时间最长的一次。而申请失业救济的人数(一种衡量裁员情况的指标)一直保持在异常低的水平。
与此同时,尽管通胀率在2022年年中见顶后大幅放缓,但仍高于央行2%的目标。
美联储已发出信号,预计今年将扭转政策方向,进行三次降息,不过在周三最近一次政策会议结束后,美联储将维持利率不变。金融市场一直预计美联储最早将于3月份首次降息,不过就业市场的持续走强可能会让美联储政策制定者对在年中之前采取降息举措持谨慎态度。
高频经济公司(High Frequency Economics)的首席美国经济学家鲁比拉·法鲁奇(Rubeela Farooqi)说:“这些数据显示对员工的需求仍然强劲,并不支持立即采取降息举措。”他们支持对未来形势采取谨慎的态度,以便政策制定者能够确保通胀率将达到2%的目标。(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
美国雇主在12月份发布了900万个职位空缺,比11月份有所增加,这再次表明,尽管存在利率上升的不利因素,但美国就业市场依然具有韧性。
美国政府在周二的报告中对11月份的职位空缺数进行了上调(11月份的职位空缺数为890万)。自2022年3月达到创纪录的1200万个职位空缺峰值以来,职位空缺逐步下降,但仍处于历史高位:在2021年之前,月度职位空缺数从未超过800万。
不过,一个值得警惕的迹象是,12月份的裁员人数有所上升。辞职表明人们对自己找到更好工作的能力相对有信心。但美国辞职的人数降至2021年1月以来的最低水平。
尽管利率大幅上涨,导致消费者和企业借贷利率上升,但美国经济和就业市场仍然保持了惊人的持久性。美联储政策制定者在2022年3月至2023年7月期间11次上调基准利率,使其达到5.4%左右的23年高点。
美联储希望看到就业市场从2021年和2022年的火热水平中实现降温,从而减轻企业为吸引和留住员工而加薪,并通过提价将这些成本转嫁给客户的压力。
尽管就业增长的步伐仍然相对健康,但利率高企已导致招聘放缓:美国雇主去年增加了270万个工作岗位,低于2022年的480万个和2021年创纪录的730万个。据数据公司FactSet对预测者进行的一项调查显示,政府将于周五发布1月份就业报告,预计雇主增加了17.7万个就业岗位。
就业市场正通过减少职位空缺这样一种相对轻松的方式实现降温。尽管出现了一波引人注目的裁员潮,但整体经济部门的裁员人数仍然相对较少。
失业率已经连续23个月低于4%,这是自上世纪60年代以来持续时间最长的一次。而申请失业救济的人数(一种衡量裁员情况的指标)一直保持在异常低的水平。
与此同时,尽管通胀率在2022年年中见顶后大幅放缓,但仍高于央行2%的目标。
美联储已发出信号,预计今年将扭转政策方向,进行三次降息,不过在周三最近一次政策会议结束后,美联储将维持利率不变。金融市场一直预计美联储最早将于3月份首次降息,不过就业市场的持续走强可能会让美联储政策制定者对在年中之前采取降息举措持谨慎态度。
高频经济公司(High Frequency Economics)的首席美国经济学家鲁比拉·法鲁奇(Rubeela Farooqi)说:“这些数据显示对员工的需求仍然强劲,并不支持立即采取降息举措。”他们支持对未来形势采取谨慎的态度,以便政策制定者能够确保通胀率将达到2%的目标。(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
America’s employers posted 9 million job openings in December, an increase from November and another sign that the U.S. job market remains resilient despite the headwind of higher interest rates.
The number of openings was up from November’s 8.9 million, which itself was revised up in Tuesday’s report from the government. Job openings have gradually but steadily declined since peaking at a record 12 million in March 2022. But they remain at historically high levels: Before 2021, monthly openings had never topped 8 million.
Still, in a cautionary sign, layoffs rose in December. And the number of Americans quitting their jobs — a sign of relative confidence in their ability to find a better position — dipped to the lowest level since January 2021.
The U.S. economy and job market have remained surprisingly durable despite sharply higher interest rates, which have led to higher borrowing rates for consumers and businesses. The Federal Reserve’s policymakers raised their benchmark interest rate 11 times between March 2022 and July 2023, bringing it to a 23-year high of around 5.4%.
The Fed wants to see the job market cool from the red-hot levels of 2021 and 2022, thereby reducing pressure on businesses to raise pay to attract and keep staff — and to pass on those costs to customers through higher prices.
Higher rates have contributed to a slowdown in hiring, though the pace of job growth remains relatively healthy: U.S. employers added 2.7 million jobs last year, down from 4.8 million in 2022 and a record 7.3 million in 2021. When the government issues the January employment report on Friday, it is expected to show that employers added a solid 177,000 jobs, according to a survey of forecasters by the data firm FactSet.
The job market is cooling in a mostly painless way — through fewer openings. Despite a wave of high-profile layoffs, the number of job cuts across the economy remains relatively low.
The unemployment rate has come in below 4% for 23 straight months, the longest such streak since the 1960s. And the number of people applying for unemployment benefits — a proxy for layoffs — has remained unusually low.
At the same time, while inflation has sharply slowed after peaking in mid-2022, it remains above the central bank’s 2% target.
The Fed has signaled that it expects to reverse course and cut rates three times this year, though it’s set to leave rates unchanged after its latest policy meeting ends Wednesday. Financial markets have been anticipating the first rate cut as early as March, though continued strength in the job market might make the Fed’s policymakers wary of acting before mid-year.
“These data — which show demand for workers remains robust — do not support imminent rate cuts,” said Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics. “They support a cautious approach going forward, so that policymakers can be sure that inflation” will reach their 2% target.