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美国老牌家装节目研究买房的美国梦,并发现了令购房人绝望的现实

SYDNEY LAKE
2024-02-11

由于美国过去几年买房成本剧增,许多潜在购房人彻底放弃了拥有一套房子的梦想。

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许多潜在购房人彻底放弃了拥有一套房子的梦想。盖蒂图片社——SKYNESHER

2023年是令潜在首次购房人伤心的一年。创数十年新高的抵押贷款利率、房价上涨和低房屋库存,让许多人无法实现美国梦。事实上,一项最新研究显示,许多潜在购房人彻底放弃了拥有一套房子的梦想。

老牌家装电视节目《This Old House》的在线部门周一发布的一项报告显示,有一半潜在购房人表示,他们放弃拥有住房这个梦想的原因是,他们永远也买不起房。该电视节目的研究团队调查了3,000名潜在购房人,询问他们是否认为拥有住房在他们的能力范围以内,以及他们最大的障碍是什么。该节目1979年首播,堪称是家装类节目的开山鼻祖。在受访的潜在购房人中,有85%依旧希望今年买房。

但有15%的受访者改变了之前的想法,放弃了想要买房的念头,这并不奇怪。高盛(Goldman Sachs)在2023年10月报告称,目前的房屋可负担性甚至比2008年房灾期间更加糟糕,而Redfin表示,美国人要买房,收入水平需要达到近11.5万美元,这比美国的中位数家庭收入高出4万美元。

事实上,《This Old House》发现,在2023年未能买房的潜在购房人中,有五分之一表示主要原因是可负担性问题。

《This Old House》评估团队的研究人员泰勒·坎迪罗若对《财富》杂志表示:“很大一部分潜在购房人表示,无法负担首付和对抵押贷款利率的担忧,是他们面临的购房障碍。高抵押贷款利率肯定会影响购房人的想法,但我们的调查中发现了一个明显令人绝望的结果,那就是有30%的购房人如果最终买到房子,他们的抵押贷款利率将超过6%。”

2023年,阻碍购房的主要因素包括房价、抵押贷款利率、搬家成本、首付成本、信用评分、负债和库存水平等。该项研究表示,事实上,2023年10月抵押贷款利率达到最高的8%,而且对潜在购房人而言房屋供应不足,因此“2023年对许多想买房的人来说是令人失望的一年。”

愿意让步

虽然由于上述因素,有20%的潜在购房人无法买房,但有72%在2023年未成功的购房人依旧计划在2024年买房。但为了买房,许多人愿意做出让步。

其他潜在购房人今年愿意增加购房预算,选择购房地点时不再拘泥于原先的计划,而且会降低对房屋面积的预期,还会向家庭成员借钱买房。有些潜在购房人也愿意出价高于原来的要价。

此外,千禧一代和Z世代为了避免买房,已经开始发挥创意。事实上,Redfin在2023年9月发布的一项研究显示,房屋可负担性紧张,导致五分之二的Z世代和千禧一代为了攒首付从事兼职。

Redfin副首席经济学家泰勒·马尔在一份声明中表示,一些人“没有首付资金,而由于抵押贷款利率和房价上涨,这种情况变得日益普遍”。

此外,Zillow和婚礼策划网站The Knot在2023年10月的一份报告显示,五分之一的千禧一代希望利用婚礼礼品清单积攒买房的资金。按照20%的首付比例计算,首套住房平均需要7万美元首付,因此年轻夫妇通过更多方式凑够首付的做法是可以理解的。

RelatedISG Realty的房地产中介唐娜·英考瓦加之前曾对《财富》杂志表示:“我服务过的大多数首次购房人都面临可负担性和竞价问题。他们并非买不起房,而是在当下的房地产市场中,他们能买得起的房子,与三四年前年轻人能买到的房子有天壤之别。”

乐观心态

虽然许多购房人彻底放弃了拥有一套房子的梦想,但还有一些人依旧在坚持。在去年未能成功但今年仍希望买房的潜在购房人中,有人认为房价会下跌(尽管也有许多人预测会出现相反的趋势),而且房屋库存水平会有所好转,这在当前的房地产市场也是个未知数。

研究发现,虽然潜在购房人在一定程度上保持乐观,但有76%的潜在购房人计划利用一些项目帮助降低首付,但他们可能没有获得抵押贷款。事实上,2024年只有42%的潜在购房人的抵押贷款获得预批,这通常是购房过程的第一步。

还有人在观望2024年总统大选对经济以及房地产市场的影响。

坎迪罗若表示:“新总统上台,可能给房产税率、减税和增加房屋库存等政策带来影响。我们发现,13%的潜在购房人目前正在观望2024年总统大选对经济的影响,然后再做出任何购房决策。”

尽管面临可负担性挑战和房地产市场不断变化的形势,《This Old House》依旧提供了几条关于2024年买房的建议。

坎迪罗若表示:“提前研究相关地区的房产税,准备更多首付款,或者申请联邦住房管理局(FHA)的贷款,可以帮助避免产生更多费用。如果你打算今年购买首套房,你应该考虑获得抵押贷款预批,购买业主保险,制定搬家预算。”(财富中文网)

翻译:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

2023年是令潜在首次购房人伤心的一年。创数十年新高的抵押贷款利率、房价上涨和低房屋库存,让许多人无法实现美国梦。事实上,一项最新研究显示,许多潜在购房人彻底放弃了拥有一套房子的梦想。

老牌家装电视节目《This Old House》的在线部门周一发布的一项报告显示,有一半潜在购房人表示,他们放弃拥有住房这个梦想的原因是,他们永远也买不起房。该电视节目的研究团队调查了3,000名潜在购房人,询问他们是否认为拥有住房在他们的能力范围以内,以及他们最大的障碍是什么。该节目1979年首播,堪称是家装类节目的开山鼻祖。在受访的潜在购房人中,有85%依旧希望今年买房。

但有15%的受访者改变了之前的想法,放弃了想要买房的念头,这并不奇怪。高盛(Goldman Sachs)在2023年10月报告称,目前的房屋可负担性甚至比2008年房灾期间更加糟糕,而Redfin表示,美国人要买房,收入水平需要达到近11.5万美元,这比美国的中位数家庭收入高出4万美元。

事实上,《This Old House》发现,在2023年未能买房的潜在购房人中,有五分之一表示主要原因是可负担性问题。

《This Old House》评估团队的研究人员泰勒·坎迪罗若对《财富》杂志表示:“很大一部分潜在购房人表示,无法负担首付和对抵押贷款利率的担忧,是他们面临的购房障碍。高抵押贷款利率肯定会影响购房人的想法,但我们的调查中发现了一个明显令人绝望的结果,那就是有30%的购房人如果最终买到房子,他们的抵押贷款利率将超过6%。”

2023年,阻碍购房的主要因素包括房价、抵押贷款利率、搬家成本、首付成本、信用评分、负债和库存水平等。该项研究表示,事实上,2023年10月抵押贷款利率达到最高的8%,而且对潜在购房人而言房屋供应不足,因此“2023年对许多想买房的人来说是令人失望的一年。”

愿意让步

虽然由于上述因素,有20%的潜在购房人无法买房,但有72%在2023年未成功的购房人依旧计划在2024年买房。但为了买房,许多人愿意做出让步。

其他潜在购房人今年愿意增加购房预算,选择购房地点时不再拘泥于原先的计划,而且会降低对房屋面积的预期,还会向家庭成员借钱买房。有些潜在购房人也愿意出价高于原来的要价。

此外,千禧一代和Z世代为了避免买房,已经开始发挥创意。事实上,Redfin在2023年9月发布的一项研究显示,房屋可负担性紧张,导致五分之二的Z世代和千禧一代为了攒首付从事兼职。

Redfin副首席经济学家泰勒·马尔在一份声明中表示,一些人“没有首付资金,而由于抵押贷款利率和房价上涨,这种情况变得日益普遍”。

此外,Zillow和婚礼策划网站The Knot在2023年10月的一份报告显示,五分之一的千禧一代希望利用婚礼礼品清单积攒买房的资金。按照20%的首付比例计算,首套住房平均需要7万美元首付,因此年轻夫妇通过更多方式凑够首付的做法是可以理解的。

RelatedISG Realty的房地产中介唐娜·英考瓦加之前曾对《财富》杂志表示:“我服务过的大多数首次购房人都面临可负担性和竞价问题。他们并非买不起房,而是在当下的房地产市场中,他们能买得起的房子,与三四年前年轻人能买到的房子有天壤之别。”

乐观心态

虽然许多购房人彻底放弃了拥有一套房子的梦想,但还有一些人依旧在坚持。在去年未能成功但今年仍希望买房的潜在购房人中,有人认为房价会下跌(尽管也有许多人预测会出现相反的趋势),而且房屋库存水平会有所好转,这在当前的房地产市场也是个未知数。

研究发现,虽然潜在购房人在一定程度上保持乐观,但有76%的潜在购房人计划利用一些项目帮助降低首付,但他们可能没有获得抵押贷款。事实上,2024年只有42%的潜在购房人的抵押贷款获得预批,这通常是购房过程的第一步。

还有人在观望2024年总统大选对经济以及房地产市场的影响。

坎迪罗若表示:“新总统上台,可能给房产税率、减税和增加房屋库存等政策带来影响。我们发现,13%的潜在购房人目前正在观望2024年总统大选对经济的影响,然后再做出任何购房决策。”

尽管面临可负担性挑战和房地产市场不断变化的形势,《This Old House》依旧提供了几条关于2024年买房的建议。

坎迪罗若表示:“提前研究相关地区的房产税,准备更多首付款,或者申请联邦住房管理局(FHA)的贷款,可以帮助避免产生更多费用。如果你打算今年购买首套房,你应该考虑获得抵押贷款预批,购买业主保险,制定搬家预算。”(财富中文网)

翻译:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

2023 was especially scarring for aspiring first-time homebuyers. Decades-high mortgage rates, rising home prices, and low inventory levels locked out many of them from achieving the American Dream. In fact, many aspiring homeowners have completely given up on the idea of ever owning a home, a new study shows.

A study from the online arm of long-running home improvement TV show This Old House, published Monday, shows that half of the aspiring homeowners who have let go of their homeownership dream say it’s because they’ll never be able to afford it. The research team for the TV show, which debuted in 1979 and largely launched the home improvement genre, surveyed 3,000 aspiring homeowners about whether they believe homeownership is within reach and what their biggest barriers are. Of aspiring homeowners surveyed, 85% still want to pursue buying a house this year.

But it’s no wonder that 15% of people who previously wanted to buy a house have completely given up. Goldman Sachs in October 2023 reported that housing affordability is even worse now than it was during the disastrous crash of 2008, and Redfin reported that Americans need to make nearly $115,000 to buy a house, which is $40,000 more than the median household income in the U.S.

Indeed, This Old House found that one in five aspiring homeowners failed to purchase in 2023, with affordability being the chief complaint.

“Among these aspiring buyers, a significant portion cited difficulties in affording down payments and concerns about mortgage rates as barriers to purchasing a home,” Taelor Candiloro, a researcher on This Old House’s reviews team, tells Fortune. “High mortgage rates can certainly influence a buyer’s perception, but there is evident desperation in our survey as 30% would settle for a mortgage rate higher than 6% if it meant finally purchasing a home.”

The top factors preventing them from purchasing a home in 2023 included home prices, mortgage rates, moving costs, down payment costs, credit scores, debt, and inventory levels. Indeed, mortgage rates peaked at 8% in October 2023 and there was a lack of supply for potential buyers, so “2023 was a wash for many who hoped to buy a home,” according to the study.

Willing to concede

Although 20% of aspiring homeowners couldn’t make a purchase based on the factors mentioned above, 72% percent of unsuccessful buyers still have plans to purchase a home in 2024. But many of them are willing to concede to make homeownership happen.

Other aspiring homeowners are willing to increase their budget to buy a home this year, settle for a different area from where they had originally planned, ease up on square footage expectations, and ask family members for money to buy a home. Some are also willing to offer above the original asking price.

Beyond the study, millennials and Gen Zers have already shown creativity in trying to avoid a home. In fact, housing affordability is so strained that two in five Gen Zers and millennials are working side hustles to save for down payments, according to a Redfin study released in September 2023.

Some people “simply don’t have the money for a down payment—a situation that has become increasingly common due to rising mortgage rates and elevated home prices,” Redfin deputy chief economist Taylor Marr said in a statement.

Plus, one in five millennials have also started asking for money to buy a home on their wedding registries, according to an October 2023 report by Zillow and The Knot, a wedding planning site. With an average of $70,000 needed for a 20% down payment on a starter home, it’s understandable that couples would need extra ways to get cash.

“Most of the first-time homebuyers I am working with are faced with challenges of affordability and competition,” Donna Incorvaja, a real estate agent at RelatedISG Realty, previously told Fortune. “It’s not that they can’t afford to buy, but that what they can afford in today’s market is very different from what a younger generation could buy three to four years ago.”

Sense of optimism

Although many homebuyers have given up on the idea of owning a home completely, others are still holding out. Of aspiring homeowners who still want to buy a house even though they failed last year, some believe the home prices will decrease (despite several forecasts indicating otherwise) and that inventory levels will improve, which is also a large unknown in today’s housing market.

Even with a certain level of optimism, 76% of prospective homeowners plan to use programs to help lower their down payment, but may not have a mortgage secured, according to the study. In fact, only 42% of potential 2024 homebuyers are preapproved for a mortgage, which is typically the first step in starting the home hunting process.

Others are also holding out for how the 2024 presidential election may impact the economy—and therefore the housing market.

“Real estate tax rates, deductions, and overall policies like increasing housing inventory may be affected as a new president steps in,” Candiloro says. “We found that 13% of aspiring homeowners are currently waiting to see how the 2024 election will impact our economy before making any decisions on purchasing a home.”

Despite affordability challenges and an ever-changing housing market, This Old House suggests several tips for pursuing homeownership in 2024.

“Doing the necessary research ahead of time on property taxes in the area, putting down more money upfront, or looking for FHA loans can help you avoid more expenses down the road,” Candiloro says. “Securing a mortgage preapproval, shopping for homeowners insurance, and making a moving budget are all things to consider if you’re looking to buy your first home this year.”

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