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极端气候是美国房地产市场面临的难题,但有创新投资或在注入市场

ALENA BOTROS
2024-02-15

极端气候造成的影响规模达到230亿美元,这是房地产市场面临的一个严重问题。

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极端气候造成的影响规模达到230亿美元,而且将变得日益严重。摄影师:JOE RAEDLE/盖蒂图片社

自上世纪80年代以来,美国每年平均发生约8次严重气候事件,每次造成的损失至少高达10亿美元。过去5年,严重气候事件的数量增加到18次,而2023年已经发生了23次。这意味着,房地产市场面临着一个影响规模至少达到230亿美元的问题,而且随着气候变化持续恶化,问题只会变得更严重。(请记住:据科学家估计,今年夏季的每日气温创下至少100,000年来的最高纪录。)

但联邦和地方政府以及私营公司正在想方设法减少气候事件的风险及其财务影响。信息、分析与数据赋能服务提供商CoreLogic首席创新官约翰·罗杰斯表示,气候变化可能被认为是一个抽象的、被过度政治化的问题,导致许多业主不关注和忽视气候问题。而且他认同情况只会变得更糟糕这一观点。罗杰斯表示:“可惜,严重气候事件可能变得更严重,发生频率更高。”

业主最终将从许多方面付出代价。事实上,保险商已经从他们所说的“富有挑战的”市场中逃离。佛罗里达州和加州就是最好的例子。据《财富》杂志之前报道,在这两个州,保险公司纷纷逃离或者减少了在当地的业务。

罗杰斯认为,这种趋势的背后有多个因素在发挥作用,但在佛罗里达州有一个重要的因素是,飓风发生的频率越来越高且日益严重。加州的情况类似,有一些保险公司设定了该州新保单的上限,或者不再提供新保单。

这种情况加剧了两个州与房地产有关的危机。在疫情驱动的房地产繁荣期间,这两个州的房价暴涨,导致许多购房人被挤出市场。事实上,购房人对于保险可用性和保险成本的担忧,在一定程度上降低了这两个州的新房销售速度。

罗杰斯表示,特别是根据一个衡量气候变化对房地产市场的实际影响的财务指标,他认为联邦和地方政府以及私营公司的投资“确实令人鼓舞”。在接受我们采访时,罗杰斯刚刚结束了在纽约的会议。他表示,形势已经发生变化,人们从“谈论气候变化,变成了在建房供应链采取实际行动,以及建设更具有气候韧性的住宅。”

保险公司如何才能回到佛罗里达州和加州

佛罗里达州和加州正在做出一些改变。例如,佛罗里达州发布了一项新法令,要求某些地区的业主建设一道五英尺高的防波堤用来保护房屋。罗杰斯表示:“政府的激励措施和政府投资,有助于改变市场动态,并吸引保险公司重回佛罗里达。”

罗杰斯指出,在野火问题严重的加州,降低保费有12个先决条件,包括清理木质平台下的灌木,在距离房子12英尺的范围内安装栅栏等。

然而,问题不止存在于加州和佛罗里达州。罗杰斯表示,想想美国各地的冬季暴风雪。虽然这些事件发生的频率较低,但它们的影响却变得日益严重。

德克萨斯州的情况

暴风雪影响的区域,并不具备承受灾难性暴风雪的韧性。以德克萨斯州为例,2021年2月,德州气温创历史新低,公路因被冰雪覆盖无法通行。此外,该州的电网运营商无法控制电力供应,导致该州持续数日停电。无数住宅被毁,造成的经济损失预计高达800亿至1,300亿美元。罗杰斯表示:“从业主的角度,我们必须树立需要保护自己的住宅这种意识,并加深理解。”

政府和私营公司可在这方面发挥作用。美国政府和联邦机构已经在采取措施减少住宅的碳排放和提高住宅韧性,例如《通胀削减法案》(Inflation Reduction Act)以及联邦应急管理署(Federal Emergency Management Agency,FEMA)最近宣布的30亿美元减缓气候变化的项目。

提高住宅的韧性

CoreLogic等公司也在采取行动。CoreLogic开发的一款气候风险分析模型,可帮助公司衡量、模拟和减缓气候变化对美国每一套住宅的财务影响。他表示,提供一个简单的财务指标,可以帮助私营公司和联邦机构确定一个关注的焦点,同时改变人们与气候变化有关的行为和思维,最终影响政策制定。罗杰斯希望该模型能够刺激那些对经济损失敏感的公司行动起来。

他说道:“只要你能用财务指标衡量某件事,你会惊讶地看到整个行业的转变。”他强调自己的目标是保护住宅所有权,以及该类资产的财务稳定性。CoreLogic的气候风险分析模型已经帮助美联储董事会对美国前六大银行面临的气候风险进行评估。

罗杰斯表示,为提高住宅韧性投入的每1美元,其价值相当于在气候事件发生后的6美元灾后重建投资。提高住宅韧性从经济的角度是合理的。根据联邦应急管理署的规定,提高住宅韧性可能意味着证明住宅建设符合本地建筑安全准则,在开始房屋修缮项目之前向本地建筑安全部门报备,抬高公用设施(如配电板)的位置并加以固定,或通过安装水位报警器或工作泵等减少地下室被洪水淹没的风险等。

除了保证住宅物理上的韧性外,无论你所在的地区是否属于高洪水风险区,你还可以甚至应该购买洪水险。

购买保险具有前所未有的重要性。据CoreLogic计算,美国最容易受到气候风险影响的前10个县,有7个县的房地产正在升值。迈阿密戴德县是最火爆的房地产市场之一,但由于飓风和洪水多发,当地也是美国风险最高的房地产市场。居民需要解决方案,可以先从政府、私营公司甚至风险投资者投入资金入手,以确保建设的房屋能够承受自然灾害的影响。

罗杰斯表示:“住宅投资是大多数人最大的一笔投资,也是他们人生中最重要的投资。作为业主,我希望知道该如何保护自己最大规模的资产。”(财富中文网)

翻译:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

自上世纪80年代以来,美国每年平均发生约8次严重气候事件,每次造成的损失至少高达10亿美元。过去5年,严重气候事件的数量增加到18次,而2023年已经发生了23次。这意味着,房地产市场面临着一个影响规模至少达到230亿美元的问题,而且随着气候变化持续恶化,问题只会变得更严重。(请记住:据科学家估计,今年夏季的每日气温创下至少100,000年来的最高纪录。)

但联邦和地方政府以及私营公司正在想方设法减少气候事件的风险及其财务影响。信息、分析与数据赋能服务提供商CoreLogic首席创新官约翰·罗杰斯表示,气候变化可能被认为是一个抽象的、被过度政治化的问题,导致许多业主不关注和忽视气候问题。而且他认同情况只会变得更糟糕这一观点。罗杰斯表示:“可惜,严重气候事件可能变得更严重,发生频率更高。”

业主最终将从许多方面付出代价。事实上,保险商已经从他们所说的“富有挑战的”市场中逃离。佛罗里达州和加州就是最好的例子。据《财富》杂志之前报道,在这两个州,保险公司纷纷逃离或者减少了在当地的业务。

罗杰斯认为,这种趋势的背后有多个因素在发挥作用,但在佛罗里达州有一个重要的因素是,飓风发生的频率越来越高且日益严重。加州的情况类似,有一些保险公司设定了该州新保单的上限,或者不再提供新保单。

这种情况加剧了两个州与房地产有关的危机。在疫情驱动的房地产繁荣期间,这两个州的房价暴涨,导致许多购房人被挤出市场。事实上,购房人对于保险可用性和保险成本的担忧,在一定程度上降低了这两个州的新房销售速度。

罗杰斯表示,特别是根据一个衡量气候变化对房地产市场的实际影响的财务指标,他认为联邦和地方政府以及私营公司的投资“确实令人鼓舞”。在接受我们采访时,罗杰斯刚刚结束了在纽约的会议。他表示,形势已经发生变化,人们从“谈论气候变化,变成了在建房供应链采取实际行动,以及建设更具有气候韧性的住宅。”

保险公司如何才能回到佛罗里达州和加州

佛罗里达州和加州正在做出一些改变。例如,佛罗里达州发布了一项新法令,要求某些地区的业主建设一道五英尺高的防波堤用来保护房屋。罗杰斯表示:“政府的激励措施和政府投资,有助于改变市场动态,并吸引保险公司重回佛罗里达。”

罗杰斯指出,在野火问题严重的加州,降低保费有12个先决条件,包括清理木质平台下的灌木,在距离房子12英尺的范围内安装栅栏等。

然而,问题不止存在于加州和佛罗里达州。罗杰斯表示,想想美国各地的冬季暴风雪。虽然这些事件发生的频率较低,但它们的影响却变得日益严重。

德克萨斯州的情况

暴风雪影响的区域,并不具备承受灾难性暴风雪的韧性。以德克萨斯州为例,2021年2月,德州气温创历史新低,公路因被冰雪覆盖无法通行。此外,该州的电网运营商无法控制电力供应,导致该州持续数日停电。无数住宅被毁,造成的经济损失预计高达800亿至1,300亿美元。罗杰斯表示:“从业主的角度,我们必须树立需要保护自己的住宅这种意识,并加深理解。”

政府和私营公司可在这方面发挥作用。美国政府和联邦机构已经在采取措施减少住宅的碳排放和提高住宅韧性,例如《通胀削减法案》(Inflation Reduction Act)以及联邦应急管理署(Federal Emergency Management Agency,FEMA)最近宣布的30亿美元减缓气候变化的项目。

提高住宅的韧性

CoreLogic等公司也在采取行动。CoreLogic开发的一款气候风险分析模型,可帮助公司衡量、模拟和减缓气候变化对美国每一套住宅的财务影响。他表示,提供一个简单的财务指标,可以帮助私营公司和联邦机构确定一个关注的焦点,同时改变人们与气候变化有关的行为和思维,最终影响政策制定。罗杰斯希望该模型能够刺激那些对经济损失敏感的公司行动起来。

他说道:“只要你能用财务指标衡量某件事,你会惊讶地看到整个行业的转变。”他强调自己的目标是保护住宅所有权,以及该类资产的财务稳定性。CoreLogic的气候风险分析模型已经帮助美联储董事会对美国前六大银行面临的气候风险进行评估。

罗杰斯表示,为提高住宅韧性投入的每1美元,其价值相当于在气候事件发生后的6美元灾后重建投资。提高住宅韧性从经济的角度是合理的。根据联邦应急管理署的规定,提高住宅韧性可能意味着证明住宅建设符合本地建筑安全准则,在开始房屋修缮项目之前向本地建筑安全部门报备,抬高公用设施(如配电板)的位置并加以固定,或通过安装水位报警器或工作泵等减少地下室被洪水淹没的风险等。

除了保证住宅物理上的韧性外,无论你所在的地区是否属于高洪水风险区,你还可以甚至应该购买洪水险。

购买保险具有前所未有的重要性。据CoreLogic计算,美国最容易受到气候风险影响的前10个县,有7个县的房地产正在升值。迈阿密戴德县是最火爆的房地产市场之一,但由于飓风和洪水多发,当地也是美国风险最高的房地产市场。居民需要解决方案,可以先从政府、私营公司甚至风险投资者投入资金入手,以确保建设的房屋能够承受自然灾害的影响。

罗杰斯表示:“住宅投资是大多数人最大的一笔投资,也是他们人生中最重要的投资。作为业主,我希望知道该如何保护自己最大规模的资产。”(财富中文网)

翻译:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

Since the 1980s, the U.S. averaged around eight major weather events per year that caused at least $1 billion in damage. In the past five years, that shot up to 18—and 2023 has seen 23 of them already. That means the housing market has a $23 billion problem, at least, and it’s only set to grow as the climate continues to change. (Remember: this summer was the hottest daily temperature in at least 100,000 years, scientists estimate.)

But federal and local governments, as well as private companies, are working on ways to mitigate those risks and their financial impacts. Climate change can come across as abstract and over-politicized, causing many homeowners to tune out and ignore climate concerns, says John Rogers, chief innovation officer at CoreLogic, an information, analytics, and data-enabled services provider. And he agrees that it is just going to get worse. “The severity and frequency of major weather events, unfortunately, is likely to go up,” says Rogers.

Homeowners end up paying the price—in more ways than one. In fact, insurers are already fleeing what they call “challenging” markets. There are no better examples than Florida and California, where insurance companies are either pulling out of the states completely or reducing their presence, as Fortune previously reported.

There are several factors at play, but the increasing frequency and intensity of hurricanes is a big one in Florida, Rogers says. California’s not too far off, with some insurance companies putting a cap on new policies or no longer writing new policies in the state.

That’s exacerbating housing-related crises in the states, both of which saw their home prices rise substantially in the pandemic-driven housing boom, pricing out many buyers. In fact, buyers’ concerns over insurance availability and costs are somewhat slowing new home sales in Florida and California.

Still, Rogers says what he’s seeing in terms of investment by federal and local governments, along with private companies is “really encouraging,” particularly when given a financial metric to encompass the real impact of climate change on the housing market. At the time of our interview, Rogers had just come back from a conference in New York. He says things have changed, and there’s movement from “talking about climate change to real action across the supply chain of building homes, and also making homes more resilient.”

How insurance can come back to Florida and California

The changes afoot include, for example, a new ordinance requires homeowners in certain areas of Florida to build a five-foot seawall to protect the home, for one. “Incentives from the government and investment from the government will help change the dynamics of this market and bring insurance back into Florida,” Rogers says.

In California, where wildfires are a major concern, there are 12 prerequisites to reduce premiums—everything from taking brush out from underneath a deck, to having a fence 12 feet away from the house, Rogers notes.

Nevertheless, the issues extend far beyond California and Florida. Think about winter storms across the country, Roger says. Their frequency might be fairly low, but their impact is definitely becoming more severe.

The case of Texas

And they’re affecting regions that weren’t built to be resilient in the face of catastrophic storms. Take Texas. In February 2021, the state faced record-low temperatures, roads were impossible to travel along because of snow and ice, and the state’s electric grid operator lost control of the power supply, resulting in blackouts that lasted days. Countless homes were damaged, causing an estimated $80 billion to $130 billion in damage. “From a homeowner’s perspective, we need to be aware and understand that we need to protect our home,” says Rogers.

That’s where the government and private companies come in. The U.S. government and federal agencies are already taking steps to reduce carbon emissions and improve the resiliency of homes—think the Inflation Reduction Act and the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) recently announced $3 billion mitigation project.

Making homes resilient

Businesses like CoreLogic are also jumping on board. CoreLogic developed a climate risk analytics model which helps companies measure, model, and mitigate the financial impacts of climate change on every single property in the United States. Providing a simple financial metric can help provide a focus for private companies and federal agencies, while changing the behavior and mindset surrounding climate change, to shape policy, he says. Rogers hopes it helps spur companies with an ear for anything involving lost money to step up.

“As soon as you can financially measure something, it’s amazing how the industry leans in,” he says, stressing his goal of protecting homeownership and the financial stability of the asset class. CoreLogic’s climate risk analytics is already supporting the Federal Reserve Board in assessing the climate risks facing the top six banks in the country.

Every $1 invested in making a home more resilient is the equivalent of a $6 disaster recovery investment after a weather event, says Rogers. Economically, it makes sense to invest in making homes more resilient. That can mean verifying your home is built in compliance with local building safety codes, checking with your local building safety department before beginning home repairs or improvement projects, elevating and anchoring utilities (like electrical panels), or reducing basement flooding risks by installing a water alarm or a working pump, according to FEMA.

Aside from physically making your home resilient, you can, and likely should, get flood insurance whether you’re in a high-risk flood zone or not.

Doing so has never been more critical. Seven of the top 10 counties in the country that are most vulnerable to climate risk are appreciating in value, according to CoreLogic’s calculations. Miami-Dade County is one of the hottest housing markets, and it’s also the riskiest, due to hurricanes and floods. Residents need solutions, and that could start with funding—from the government, private companies, and even venture capitalists—to ensure homes are built to withstand natural disasters.

“It’s the biggest investment for most people, it’s the biggest investment of their lives,” says Rogers. “As a homeowner, I would like to know what I can do to protect my biggest asset.”

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