持续十年的低利率和低成本资本,培养出了一代被称为“成长于零利率环境下的雏鸟”的初创公司。如今,加息使公开市场对颠覆性、高增长科技公司的态度变得消极,因此投资者正在让这些雏鸟们飞出巢穴。
2024年,它们必须学会如何飞翔,否则就会跌落地面。不止这些公司存在风险。高增长、颠覆性科技公司的市值,约占美国国民生产总值(GDP)的7.3%。据Pitchbook的数据显示,全世界有超过1,200家估值超过10亿美元的独角兽公司。其中一半以上(约600家)位于美国。估值超过5亿美元的潜在独角兽公司同样规模庞大。
虽然市场环境变化暴露出这些公司的许多弱点,但大多数公司迄今为止并没有遭到公众的严格审查。这些在零利率环境下成长起来的公司都面临着一个共同的问题:它们在热情但无法持续的增长环境下,隐藏着严重的结构性缺陷。
为了真正维持增长,这些公司的首席执行官、首席财务官和投资者们,必须抛弃传统的回顾性财务分析,树立对公司经济引擎的可靠性和后续增长和盈利路径的信心。这些路径应该是清晰的,结构合理,并且符合公司在融资选择方面的最终目标。下列基本问题能够帮助确定这些路径的可行性。
公司收入的质量如何?
一个关键要素是公司的业务具有真正的“重复性”,包括对年度经常性收入(Annual Recurring Revenue)背后的驱动因素进行关键分析。对于非软件类业务,这意味着了解公司有多少经常性收入,并确保高利润率与这个收入流相关联。收入的质量还包括客户群体的质量和多样性,以及用户或客户自身的经济实力。
公司的增长质量如何?
关键是要确认公司的增长是基于现有的客户群体,有坚实的基础。对于软件即服务(SaaS)公司,最好的衡量指标是净收入留存率(Net Revenue Retention,考虑到公司规模的扩张,目前从客户收到的收入与一年前的收入的百分比)和总收入留存率(Gross Revenue Retention,一年后保留的客户收入百分比)。在确定了基于现有客户的增长质量之后,评估公司高效推动新业务发展的能力将是关键。
对于交易平台公司,增长质量可以体现在提高收入转换率的能力上。例如,随着Uber完善了价值定位,公司的收入转换率有所提高(2023年为29%,2021年为19%)。
公司的毛利润质量如何?
在补贴性增长结束后,只有强劲的毛利润率(或边际贡献率)能够支持可持续的成本结构,公司需要研发创新与投资,才可以维持竞争力。在现金流层面,需要强劲的经营毛利润率来推动公司的大规模增长。
公司的韧性如何?
在确定了增长和盈利路径之后,还需要评估这些在零利率环境下成长起来的公司的韧性。如果在法定审计的过程中把财务控制措施作为审查对象,公司治理就将成为最关键的部分,因为公司可能缺乏清晰的治理框架,应该进行深入评估。
治理框架中必须包括防护措施,以保证创始人不会越过高度自信和自我信念与夸张甚至欺诈之间的界限。创始人的自信是打造真正的行业领导者的关键。这些公司将会继续开创人类的未来,改变我们的社会,因此它们的韧性还取决于能否遵守重要的环境、社会和治理(ESG)标准,尤其是气候以及多元、公平和包容(DEI)等因素。
只有回答了这些问题,投资者才能够准确评估一家高增长科技公司的前景和生存能力。未来几个月,许多首席执行官和投资者会发现在零利率下成长起来的公司内部的弱点,导致一些备受关注的公司倒闭。
好消息是,大多数公司仍然有时间适应新的资本模式,提高顺利进入健康成熟期的概率。(财富中文网)
本文作者拉斐勒·德奥尔纳诺(Raphaelle D’Ornano)是咨询公司D’Ornano+Co的首席执行官。
Fortune.com上发表的评论文章中表达的观点,仅代表作者本人的观点,不代表《财富》杂志的观点和立场。
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
持续十年的低利率和低成本资本,培养出了一代被称为“成长于零利率环境下的雏鸟”的初创公司。如今,加息使公开市场对颠覆性、高增长科技公司的态度变得消极,因此投资者正在让这些雏鸟们飞出巢穴。
2024年,它们必须学会如何飞翔,否则就会跌落地面。不止这些公司存在风险。高增长、颠覆性科技公司的市值,约占美国国民生产总值(GDP)的7.3%。据Pitchbook的数据显示,全世界有超过1,200家估值超过10亿美元的独角兽公司。其中一半以上(约600家)位于美国。估值超过5亿美元的潜在独角兽公司同样规模庞大。
虽然市场环境变化暴露出这些公司的许多弱点,但大多数公司迄今为止并没有遭到公众的严格审查。这些在零利率环境下成长起来的公司都面临着一个共同的问题:它们在热情但无法持续的增长环境下,隐藏着严重的结构性缺陷。
为了真正维持增长,这些公司的首席执行官、首席财务官和投资者们,必须抛弃传统的回顾性财务分析,树立对公司经济引擎的可靠性和后续增长和盈利路径的信心。这些路径应该是清晰的,结构合理,并且符合公司在融资选择方面的最终目标。下列基本问题能够帮助确定这些路径的可行性。
公司收入的质量如何?
一个关键要素是公司的业务具有真正的“重复性”,包括对年度经常性收入(Annual Recurring Revenue)背后的驱动因素进行关键分析。对于非软件类业务,这意味着了解公司有多少经常性收入,并确保高利润率与这个收入流相关联。收入的质量还包括客户群体的质量和多样性,以及用户或客户自身的经济实力。
公司的增长质量如何?
关键是要确认公司的增长是基于现有的客户群体,有坚实的基础。对于软件即服务(SaaS)公司,最好的衡量指标是净收入留存率(Net Revenue Retention,考虑到公司规模的扩张,目前从客户收到的收入与一年前的收入的百分比)和总收入留存率(Gross Revenue Retention,一年后保留的客户收入百分比)。在确定了基于现有客户的增长质量之后,评估公司高效推动新业务发展的能力将是关键。
对于交易平台公司,增长质量可以体现在提高收入转换率的能力上。例如,随着Uber完善了价值定位,公司的收入转换率有所提高(2023年为29%,2021年为19%)。
公司的毛利润质量如何?
在补贴性增长结束后,只有强劲的毛利润率(或边际贡献率)能够支持可持续的成本结构,公司需要研发创新与投资,才可以维持竞争力。在现金流层面,需要强劲的经营毛利润率来推动公司的大规模增长。
公司的韧性如何?
在确定了增长和盈利路径之后,还需要评估这些在零利率环境下成长起来的公司的韧性。如果在法定审计的过程中把财务控制措施作为审查对象,公司治理就将成为最关键的部分,因为公司可能缺乏清晰的治理框架,应该进行深入评估。
治理框架中必须包括防护措施,以保证创始人不会越过高度自信和自我信念与夸张甚至欺诈之间的界限。创始人的自信是打造真正的行业领导者的关键。这些公司将会继续开创人类的未来,改变我们的社会,因此它们的韧性还取决于能否遵守重要的环境、社会和治理(ESG)标准,尤其是气候以及多元、公平和包容(DEI)等因素。
只有回答了这些问题,投资者才能够准确评估一家高增长科技公司的前景和生存能力。未来几个月,许多首席执行官和投资者会发现在零利率下成长起来的公司内部的弱点,导致一些备受关注的公司倒闭。
好消息是,大多数公司仍然有时间适应新的资本模式,提高顺利进入健康成熟期的概率。(财富中文网)
本文作者拉斐勒·德奥尔纳诺(Raphaelle D’Ornano)是咨询公司D’Ornano+Co的首席执行官。
Fortune.com上发表的评论文章中表达的观点,仅代表作者本人的观点,不代表《财富》杂志的观点和立场。
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
A decade of low interest rates and cheap capital birthed a startup generation of “zero interest-rate babies.” Now that rising interest rates have turned public markets sour on disruptive, high-growth tech companies, investors are pushing these ZIRBs out of the nest.
In 2024, they must learn how to fly before they hit the ground. The stakes are not limited to these companies. The value of high-growth, disruptive tech companies is equivalent to about 7.3% of the U.S. gross domestic product. There are more than 1,200 unicorns with billion-dollar-plus valuations in the world, according to Pitchbook data. More than half of these (approximately 600) are based in the U.S. Not far behind is an army of soon-to-be unicorns, valued at more than $500 million.
Even as changing market conditions reveal many of their weak spots, most of these companies have so far been immune to public scrutiny. But these ZIRBs share a troubling trait: they were able to hide severe structural flaws beneath enthusiastic but unsustainable growth conditions.
To learn how to really fly, ZIRB CEOs, CFOs, and investors need to throw out traditional backward-looking financial analyses and build confidence in the solidity of the company’s economic engine and subsequent paths to growth and profitability. These paths should be clear, well-framed, and consistent with the company’s end goal in terms of financing options. The following fundamental questions can help establish the feasibility of these paths:
What is the quality of the company’s revenue?
The key element to look for here is the truly “recurring” nature of the business, including a critical analysis of what is behind Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR). In the case of non-software businesses, this means understanding how much revenue is re-occurring and making sure that high margins are associated with this revenue stream. Quality of revenue also refers to customer base quality and diversification as well as the strength of the user or customer’s own economics.
What is the quality of the company’s growth?
It is critical to confirm that growth has a solid foundation, grounded on the existing customer base. For SaaS businesses, this is best measured through net revenue retention (NRR, the percentage of revenue now received from a customer compared to a year ago, taking into account expansion) and gross revenue retention (GRR, the percentage of revenue from a customer that remains after one year). Once a decision is made on the quality of growth for existing customers, it will be key to assess the company’s ability to fuel the new business engine efficiently.
In marketplace businesses, quality of growth can be reflected in the ability to increase the take rate. For example, Uber’s take rate has risen (29% in 2023 vs. 19% in 2021) as the company improved its value proposition.
What is the quality of the company’s margins?
With the end of subsidized growth, only strong gross (or contribution) margins can support a sustainable cost structure that also requires innovation and investment in research and development to remain competitive. At a cash-flow level, strong operating margins are needed to drive growth at scale for these businesses.
How resilient is the company?
Once a decision is made on the path to growth and profitability, ZIRBs will also need to be assessed through the lens of their resilience. If financial controls are reviewed as a part of legal audits, governance stands out as perhaps the most critical point here because it can lack a clear framework and should be assessed deeply.
This must include guardrails to ensure founders don’t cross the line between high confidence and self-belief, which are key to building true industry leaders, and exaggeration–or even fraud. As these companies continue to build our future and transform our societies, their resilience also rests on their ability to comply with essential environmental, social, and governance (ESG) criteria, notably climate and diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) considerations.
Only by answering these questions can investors accurately assess the prospects and viability of a high-growth tech company. Many CEOs and investors will discover weaknesses within the ZIRB universe over the coming months, resulting in some high-profile failures.
The good news is that there’s still time for most of these babies to course-correct by adapting to the new capital paradigm and raising the probability of reaching a healthy adulthood.
Raphaelle d’Ornano is the CEO of advisory firm D’Ornano+Co.
The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.