美国房地产市场经过疫情期间的暴涨之后,去年陷入低迷。房屋销量降至2011年以来的最低水平,主要原因是现房销售跌至近30年最低。待售房屋库存不足。但婴儿潮一代家庭可能给美国房地产市场带来一些希望:据房地美(Freddie Mac)预测,未来十年,随着婴儿潮一代人口减少和住房自有率下降,预计将有900多万套住房上市交易。
至少在房地产市场,婴儿潮一代有举足轻重的地位。大多数婴儿潮一代可能拥有自己的住房,或者锁定了低按揭利率,而且他们的资产普遍在升值。美国房地产市场的缺口多达约200万至700万套,而婴儿潮一代之所以不愿意出售房屋,是因为在过去两年按揭利率上涨了一倍以上。
房地美的报告称:“有人警告随着日渐老去的婴儿潮一代出售房屋,将会发生‘银发海啸’,会有大量房屋库存涌入市场。但正如分析所示,银发海啸更像是一波浪潮,它所带来的婴儿潮一代的逐步退出,极有可能被新进入市场的人们抵消。”
换言之,即使未来十年婴儿潮一代卖掉自己的房子,年轻人会继续进入房地产市场 —— 据城市研究所(Urban Institute)预测,未来十年将会诞生850万个新家庭,到2030年至2040年期间将会诞生760万个,其中多数家庭将需要住房。房地美表示,因此“未来几年的总住房需求可能会持续增长。”
在2023年11月被彭博社评价为“华尔街先知”的梅雷迪思·惠特尼预测,婴儿潮一代的“银发海啸”将在2024年和2025年开始减弱。惠特尼引用美国退休人员协会(AARP)在雅虎财经投资会议(Yahoo Finance Invest Conference)上的报告表示,51%的50岁以上人口计划换小一些的房子。她表示,这会使市场上的待售房屋增加3,000多万套,这个数字远高于房地美的预测,而且增长速度也超过了该抵押贷款公司的预测。惠特尼曾准确预测了2008年的金融危机。她还表示,这个趋势会导致“利率不可知”,这意味着她预测无论当前市场利率是什么水平,供需关系变化都会发生,因为“老年人的按揭利率更低,甚至没有使用按揭”。
截至2022年,婴儿潮一代的规模为6,900万人,拥有美国38%的自有住宅。他们显然没有让千禧一代拥有住房变得更容易。但报告称,如果按照前辈的模式,随着婴儿潮一代日渐衰老,尤其是70多岁以后,他们的房屋所有率将会下降。房地美预测,随着年龄较大的婴儿潮一代接近90岁高龄,婴儿潮家庭的数量将从2022年的约3,200万个逐步减少到2035年的2,300万个。报告称:“按照这个估算,到2035年,婴儿潮一代的有房家庭将减少920万个。”
房地美表示,这种逐步下降的趋势在这个十年较为温和,但在下一个十年将会加速,到时候大多数婴儿潮一代将步入70和80岁的高龄。例如,房地美估计,到2028年,只有270万套房屋将进入市场出售。
房地美表示:“从这种意义上来说,银发海啸更像是一股浪潮,婴儿潮一代家庭将会在未来数年内逐步减少。虽然未来几年因为年龄衰老不再拥有住房的人口将会增多,但它更像是一种向上爬坡的趋势,而不是一种破坏性的突然增多。”
但可能有一点需要警惕。随着人口寿命延长和老年人变得更健康,房屋保留率一直在不断提高。据约翰·伯恩斯研究咨询公司(John Burns Research and Consulting)统计,婴儿潮一代平均年龄为67岁,而且平均寿命仍有21年。报告称,将这个事实考虑在内,如果使用最新的房屋保留率而不是历史平均水平,那么减少的婴儿潮家庭“会少接近一百万个”。
与惠特尼不同,其他经济学家认为,“银发海啸”根本不会构成海啸,这与房地美的推论一致。相反,《财富》世界500强金融服务公司第一美国金融公司(First American)的首席经济学家马克·弗莱明此前曾对《财富》杂志表示,婴儿潮一代人口要在十年甚至更久之后,也就是直到他们到80岁左右时,才会开始减少。他将其称为“衰老退出过程”。弗莱明认为,婴儿潮一代包括了从上世纪40年代中期到60年代中期出生的人,因此等他们准备放弃当前的住房状况,仍有很长的路要走。
他表示:“婴儿潮一代将会更久住在家里。他们更富有,更健康。他们可以比先辈们更长时间留在家中。大批婴儿潮一代因为衰老退出市场的周期确实会发生,但这尚未到来。”房地美周四发布的报告还表示,婴儿潮一代愿意在家中养老。房地美的调查显示,只有17%的老年业主表示在退休期间卖掉了或计划卖掉自己的房子,这一方面是由于财务原因,另一方面则是对家的情感依赖。此外,有62%的受访者表示其目标是将房子留给后代。
无论银发海啸或浪潮的速度有多快,都不会彻底解决年轻人的房屋可负担性问题,因为房价已经高到离谱的地步。虽然一些婴儿潮一代可能搬到退休社区,但有些人会选择更小一点的房子,而年轻人恰好也想要这类住房。这可能让千禧一代和更年轻的人们只能继续观望,可能进一步推高房价。更不必说婴儿潮一代有更多现金,因此他们将在竞价中胜出。
房地产市场数据发行商与咨询公司Zonda的首席经济学家阿里·沃尔夫此前曾对《财富》杂志表示:“特定婴儿潮一代与特定千禧一代之间有大量重叠。关键区别在于,婴儿潮一代可以出售现有房屋获得房屋净值,让他们为房子提供的出价比千禧一代更有吸引力,尤其是正在租房的千禧一代。”(财富中文网)
翻译:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
美国房地产市场经过疫情期间的暴涨之后,去年陷入低迷。房屋销量降至2011年以来的最低水平,主要原因是现房销售跌至近30年最低。待售房屋库存不足。但婴儿潮一代家庭可能给美国房地产市场带来一些希望:据房地美(Freddie Mac)预测,未来十年,随着婴儿潮一代人口减少和住房自有率下降,预计将有900多万套住房上市交易。
至少在房地产市场,婴儿潮一代有举足轻重的地位。大多数婴儿潮一代可能拥有自己的住房,或者锁定了低按揭利率,而且他们的资产普遍在升值。美国房地产市场的缺口多达约200万至700万套,而婴儿潮一代之所以不愿意出售房屋,是因为在过去两年按揭利率上涨了一倍以上。
房地美的报告称:“有人警告随着日渐老去的婴儿潮一代出售房屋,将会发生‘银发海啸’,会有大量房屋库存涌入市场。但正如分析所示,银发海啸更像是一波浪潮,它所带来的婴儿潮一代的逐步退出,极有可能被新进入市场的人们抵消。”
换言之,即使未来十年婴儿潮一代卖掉自己的房子,年轻人会继续进入房地产市场 —— 据城市研究所(Urban Institute)预测,未来十年将会诞生850万个新家庭,到2030年至2040年期间将会诞生760万个,其中多数家庭将需要住房。房地美表示,因此“未来几年的总住房需求可能会持续增长。”
在2023年11月被彭博社评价为“华尔街先知”的梅雷迪思·惠特尼预测,婴儿潮一代的“银发海啸”将在2024年和2025年开始减弱。惠特尼引用美国退休人员协会(AARP)在雅虎财经投资会议(Yahoo Finance Invest Conference)上的报告表示,51%的50岁以上人口计划换小一些的房子。她表示,这会使市场上的待售房屋增加3,000多万套,这个数字远高于房地美的预测,而且增长速度也超过了该抵押贷款公司的预测。惠特尼曾准确预测了2008年的金融危机。她还表示,这个趋势会导致“利率不可知”,这意味着她预测无论当前市场利率是什么水平,供需关系变化都会发生,因为“老年人的按揭利率更低,甚至没有使用按揭”。
截至2022年,婴儿潮一代的规模为6,900万人,拥有美国38%的自有住宅。他们显然没有让千禧一代拥有住房变得更容易。但报告称,如果按照前辈的模式,随着婴儿潮一代日渐衰老,尤其是70多岁以后,他们的房屋所有率将会下降。房地美预测,随着年龄较大的婴儿潮一代接近90岁高龄,婴儿潮家庭的数量将从2022年的约3,200万个逐步减少到2035年的2,300万个。报告称:“按照这个估算,到2035年,婴儿潮一代的有房家庭将减少920万个。”
房地美表示,这种逐步下降的趋势在这个十年较为温和,但在下一个十年将会加速,到时候大多数婴儿潮一代将步入70和80岁的高龄。例如,房地美估计,到2028年,只有270万套房屋将进入市场出售。
房地美表示:“从这种意义上来说,银发海啸更像是一股浪潮,婴儿潮一代家庭将会在未来数年内逐步减少。虽然未来几年因为年龄衰老不再拥有住房的人口将会增多,但它更像是一种向上爬坡的趋势,而不是一种破坏性的突然增多。”
但可能有一点需要警惕。随着人口寿命延长和老年人变得更健康,房屋保留率一直在不断提高。据约翰·伯恩斯研究咨询公司(John Burns Research and Consulting)统计,婴儿潮一代平均年龄为67岁,而且平均寿命仍有21年。报告称,将这个事实考虑在内,如果使用最新的房屋保留率而不是历史平均水平,那么减少的婴儿潮家庭“会少接近一百万个”。
与惠特尼不同,其他经济学家认为,“银发海啸”根本不会构成海啸,这与房地美的推论一致。相反,《财富》世界500强金融服务公司第一美国金融公司(First American)的首席经济学家马克·弗莱明此前曾对《财富》杂志表示,婴儿潮一代人口要在十年甚至更久之后,也就是直到他们到80岁左右时,才会开始减少。他将其称为“衰老退出过程”。弗莱明认为,婴儿潮一代包括了从上世纪40年代中期到60年代中期出生的人,因此等他们准备放弃当前的住房状况,仍有很长的路要走。
他表示:“婴儿潮一代将会更久住在家里。他们更富有,更健康。他们可以比先辈们更长时间留在家中。大批婴儿潮一代因为衰老退出市场的周期确实会发生,但这尚未到来。”房地美周四发布的报告还表示,婴儿潮一代愿意在家中养老。房地美的调查显示,只有17%的老年业主表示在退休期间卖掉了或计划卖掉自己的房子,这一方面是由于财务原因,另一方面则是对家的情感依赖。此外,有62%的受访者表示其目标是将房子留给后代。
无论银发海啸或浪潮的速度有多快,都不会彻底解决年轻人的房屋可负担性问题,因为房价已经高到离谱的地步。虽然一些婴儿潮一代可能搬到退休社区,但有些人会选择更小一点的房子,而年轻人恰好也想要这类住房。这可能让千禧一代和更年轻的人们只能继续观望,可能进一步推高房价。更不必说婴儿潮一代有更多现金,因此他们将在竞价中胜出。
房地产市场数据发行商与咨询公司Zonda的首席经济学家阿里·沃尔夫此前曾对《财富》杂志表示:“特定婴儿潮一代与特定千禧一代之间有大量重叠。关键区别在于,婴儿潮一代可以出售现有房屋获得房屋净值,让他们为房子提供的出价比千禧一代更有吸引力,尤其是正在租房的千禧一代。”(财富中文网)
翻译:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
After a wild ride during the pandemic, the housing market froze over last year. Total home sales fell to their lowest level since 2011, mostly because existing home sales plummeted to a nearly 30-year low. There’s simply not enough for-sale inventory. But there’s some hope from baby-boomer households, with a wave of downsizing and declining homeownership rates expected to bring more than 9 million homes onto the market in the next decade, according to Freddie Mac.
Baby boomers are a big deal — in the housing market, at least. Most either own their homes outright or are locked into a low mortgage rate, and generally, their properties are appreciating. In a housing market missing roughly 2 to 7 million homes, boomers are holding onto theirs because mortgage rates more than doubled during the past couple of years.
“Some have warned of a ‘silver tsunami’ as aging boomers look to sell their homes, flooding the market with inventory,” Freddie Mac’s report reads. “But as this analysis demonstrates, the tsunami is more like a tide, bringing a gradual exit that will mostly be offset by new entrants.”
In other words, even as boomers vacate their homes in the coming decade, younger generations will continue to enter the housing market—the Urban Institute projects that 8.5 million new households will be created this decade, and 7.6 million between 2030 and 2040, most of which will need homes. So “total housing demand over the next few years is likely to continue to increase,” Freddie Mac said.
None other than Meredith Whitney, deemed the “Oracle of Wall Street” by Bloomberg in November 2023, predicted that a “silver tsunami” of baby boomers would start downsizing in 2024 and 2025. Whitney said 51% of people over the age of 50 are set to downsize to smaller homes, citing an AARP report at a Yahoo Finance Invest Conference. This move would bring more than 30 million housing units to the market, she said—a figure much higher than Freddie Mac’s and at a pace much faster than the mortgage corporation projects. Whitney, who accurately predicted the 2008 financial crisis, also said this trend will be “rate agnostic,” meaning she expects the supply-demand shift to happen no matter what current market rates are, because “older people have lower mortgage rates, if any mortgage at all.”
There were 69 million baby boomers, accounting for 38% of homeowner households, as of 2022. And they clearly haven’t made it easy for millennials to climb the homeownership ladder. But if boomers follow the patterns of previous generations, their homeownership rate will decline as they get older, particularly as they enter their late 70s, the report said. Freddie Mac predicted that the number of baby boomer households will fall gradually from around 32 million in 2022 to 23 million by 2035, as older boomers near their 90s. “Per this estimate, there will be 9.2 million fewer boomer homeowner households by 2035,” the report said.
That gradual decline is much more modest in this decade before it accelerates in the next, at which point the majority of boomers will be in their 70s and 80s, Freddie Mac says. For instance, by 2028, Freddie Mac estimates there will only be 2.7 million homes freed up.
“In this sense, the silver tsunami is more like a tide, with a gradual reduction phasing in over several years,” Freddie Mac said. “While the number of people aging out of homeownership will increase in the coming years, it is more of an upward sloping trend than a disruptive spike.”
But there is a potential caveat. Homeownership retention rates have increased over time with longer life expectancies and healthier outcomes for older people. The average baby boomer is 67 years old, according to John Burns Research and Consulting, and will live another 21 years. So taking that into account and using a more recent retention rate rather than the historical average, the decline in boomer households “would be closer to one million less,” the report said.
Unlike Whitney, other economists—in line with Freddie Mac’s reasoning—believe the “silver tsunami” won’t be much of a tsunami at all. Rather, it will take a decade or more for boomers to fully start downsizing, which this generation doesn’t typically start doing until about age 80, Mark Fleming, chief economist with Fortune 500 financial services company First American, previously told Fortune. He calls this the “aging out process.” Because the baby boomer generation includes people born between the mid-1940s and mid-1960s, we still have a way to go before all of them are ready to forgo their current housing situation, according to Fleming.
“Baby boomers are staying in their homes longer. They’re wealthier. They’re healthier. They’re able to stay in place longer than generations past,” Fleming said. “And it is true that the cycle of the large baby boomer generation aging out will happen. But not yet.” A Fannie Mae report released Thursday also suggested that baby boomers are content aging in place. Only 17% of older homeowners said they sold their home, or plan to, during retirement, according to Fannie Mae‘s survey, as the result of both a financial and emotional attachment to their home. What’s more is 62% of respondents said their goal is to leave their home to their heirs.
Regardless of the pace of the silver tsunami, or tide, it won’t completely fix housing affordability for younger generations because home prices are already out of reach. While some baby boomers might move into retirement communities, others may opt for smaller homes—the same ones that younger generations want. That could continue to sideline millennials and younger generations, and potentially drive up starter home prices further. Not to mention that baby boomers have more cash on hand, so they’ll be the ones to win out in a bidding war.
“There’s a big overlap between select baby boomers and select millennials,” Ali Wolf, chief economist at Zonda, a distributor of housing market data and consulting, previously told Fortune. “The key difference here is that the baby boomer will likely be able to tap home equity by selling their existing home, allowing them to perhaps make a more compelling offer on the home compared to the millennials, especially if the latter group are still renting.”