美国政府周三发布的一份报告称,上个月,油价、房租和汽车保险导致美国的消费物价继续大幅上涨,这可能让美联储(Federal Reserve)暂停考虑今年何时和以多大幅度降息。
2月至3月,剔除容易波动的食品和能源价格的消费物价上涨0.4%,这与前一个月的涨幅持平。与一年前相比,核心物价上涨了3.8%,与2月维持了相同的同比涨幅。美联储密切关注核心物价,因为核心物价为预测通胀走向提供了一个合理的指标。
3月的通胀率连续三个月高于美联储2%的目标,这可能破坏美联储今年多次降息的前景。美联储官员最近明确表示,如果经济健康,他们不会急于下调基准利率,尽管美联储之前预测今年会三次降息。
3月份的数据可能也让白宫失望,因为批评美国总统乔·拜登的共和党人,可能将高物价归咎于拜登,并以此破坏拜登的连任计划。民调显示,尽管就业市场健康,股市接近历史新高,通胀也在稳步回落,但许多美国人仍批评拜登是造成高物价的罪魁祸首。
美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔强调,美联储的政策制定者们应该对通胀逐渐缓慢回落到2%的目标更有信心。鲍威尔的立场让月度通胀报告引起了更多关注,它可能决定了美联储将在今年什么时候和以多大力度降低关键利率,甚至会决定美联储是否会降息。随着时间的推移,降息将降低企业和消费者的借款成本,有助于刺激股市上涨。
从2月到3月,整体消费物价上涨0.4%,与前一个月持平。与一年前相比,整体消费物价上涨3.5%,高于2月份的3.2%。
疫情之后的通胀飙升提高了食品、汽油、房租和其他许多方面的成本。虽然通胀率较2022年6月9.1%的最高点有所回落,但平均物价依旧远高于疫情之前的水平。
今年早些时候,华尔街的交易商们预测,美联储将在2024年六次或七次下调关键利率。3月,美联储官员暗示,他们预测会三次降息。但1月和2月的通胀上涨,以及经济增长依旧健康的信号,使多位美联储官员暗示今年降息次数将有所减少。
上个月,雇主增加招聘,失业率从3.9%下降到3.8%。制造业数据也显示,工厂产值经过一年多的萎缩之后开始增长。
这些代表经济活力的信号,使美联储降息的前景变得更加复杂,因为降息通常发生在经济动荡时期。有经济学家质疑,在经济健康增长时,为什么要降息?强劲的经济还意味着,美联储的政策制定者们可以慢慢考虑在什么时候和以多大力度降低消费者和企业的借款成本。
在上个月的新闻发布会上,鲍威尔表示,充分就业本身不会要求美联储推迟降息。他指出,虽然去年就业增长强劲,但通胀仍在下降,这主要归功于可用劳工增多,其中大部分来自新增的移民。
但其他政策制定者表示,最近的数据让他们暂停考虑降息。达拉斯联邦储备银行(Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)行长洛里·罗根上周表示,她认为现在考虑降息为时尚早。(财富中文网)
翻译:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
美国政府周三发布的一份报告称,上个月,油价、房租和汽车保险导致美国的消费物价继续大幅上涨,这可能让美联储(Federal Reserve)暂停考虑今年何时和以多大幅度降息。
2月至3月,剔除容易波动的食品和能源价格的消费物价上涨0.4%,这与前一个月的涨幅持平。与一年前相比,核心物价上涨了3.8%,与2月维持了相同的同比涨幅。美联储密切关注核心物价,因为核心物价为预测通胀走向提供了一个合理的指标。
3月的通胀率连续三个月高于美联储2%的目标,这可能破坏美联储今年多次降息的前景。美联储官员最近明确表示,如果经济健康,他们不会急于下调基准利率,尽管美联储之前预测今年会三次降息。
3月份的数据可能也让白宫失望,因为批评美国总统乔·拜登的共和党人,可能将高物价归咎于拜登,并以此破坏拜登的连任计划。民调显示,尽管就业市场健康,股市接近历史新高,通胀也在稳步回落,但许多美国人仍批评拜登是造成高物价的罪魁祸首。
美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔强调,美联储的政策制定者们应该对通胀逐渐缓慢回落到2%的目标更有信心。鲍威尔的立场让月度通胀报告引起了更多关注,它可能决定了美联储将在今年什么时候和以多大力度降低关键利率,甚至会决定美联储是否会降息。随着时间的推移,降息将降低企业和消费者的借款成本,有助于刺激股市上涨。
从2月到3月,整体消费物价上涨0.4%,与前一个月持平。与一年前相比,整体消费物价上涨3.5%,高于2月份的3.2%。
疫情之后的通胀飙升提高了食品、汽油、房租和其他许多方面的成本。虽然通胀率较2022年6月9.1%的最高点有所回落,但平均物价依旧远高于疫情之前的水平。
今年早些时候,华尔街的交易商们预测,美联储将在2024年六次或七次下调关键利率。3月,美联储官员暗示,他们预测会三次降息。但1月和2月的通胀上涨,以及经济增长依旧健康的信号,使多位美联储官员暗示今年降息次数将有所减少。
上个月,雇主增加招聘,失业率从3.9%下降到3.8%。制造业数据也显示,工厂产值经过一年多的萎缩之后开始增长。
这些代表经济活力的信号,使美联储降息的前景变得更加复杂,因为降息通常发生在经济动荡时期。有经济学家质疑,在经济健康增长时,为什么要降息?强劲的经济还意味着,美联储的政策制定者们可以慢慢考虑在什么时候和以多大力度降低消费者和企业的借款成本。
在上个月的新闻发布会上,鲍威尔表示,充分就业本身不会要求美联储推迟降息。他指出,虽然去年就业增长强劲,但通胀仍在下降,这主要归功于可用劳工增多,其中大部分来自新增的移民。
但其他政策制定者表示,最近的数据让他们暂停考虑降息。达拉斯联邦储备银行(Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)行长洛里·罗根上周表示,她认为现在考虑降息为时尚早。(财富中文网)
翻译:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
Consumer price increases remained high last month, boosted by gas, rents, and car insurance, the government said Wednesday in a report that will likely give pause to the Federal Reserve as it weighs when and by how much to cut interest rates this year.
Prices outside the volatile food and energy categories rose 0.4% from February to March, the same accelerated pace as in the previous month. Measured from a year earlier, these core prices were up 3.8%, unchanged from the year-over-year rise in February. The Fed closely tracks core prices because they tend to provide a good read of where inflation is headed.
The March figures, the third straight month of inflation readings well above the Fed’s 2% target, threaten to torpedo the prospect of multiple interest rate cuts this year. Fed officials have recently made clear that with the economy healthy, they’re in no rush to cut their benchmark rate despite their earlier projections that they would reduce rates three times this year.
The figures will likely disappoint the White House as well, with Republican critics of President Joe Biden seeking to pin the blame for high prices on the president and use it as a cudgel to derail his re-election bid. Polls show that despite a healthy job market, a near-record-high stock market and the steady drop in inflation, many Americans blame Biden for high prices.
Chair Jerome Powell has stressed that the Fed’s policymakers need more confidence that inflation is steadily slowing to the Fed’s 2% target. Powell’s stance has elevated the profile of the monthly inflation reports, which could determine when and by how much — or even whether — the Fed will reduce its key rate this year. Rate cuts would lead, over time, to lower borrowing costs for businesses and consumers and could also fuel a stock market rally.
Overall consumer prices rose 0.4% from February to March, also the same as the previous month. Compared with 12 months earlier, prices rose 3.5%, up from a year-over-year figure of 3.2% in February.
The inflation surge that followed the pandemic jacked up the costs of food, gas, rent and many other items. Though inflation has since plummeted from its peak of 9.1% in June 2022, average prices are still well above where they were before the pandemic.
Early this year, Wall Street traders had projected that the Fed would cut its key rate up to six or seven times in 2024. In March, Fed officials signaled that they envisioned three rate cuts. But elevated inflation readings for January and February — along with signs that economic growth remains healthy — led several Fed officials to suggest that fewer rate cuts may occur this year.
Last month, employers ramped up hiring, and the unemployment rate fell to a low 3.8% from 3.9%. A report on manufacturing also showed that factory output expanded after more than a year of contraction.
Such signs of economic vigor have also complicated the prospect of Fed rate cuts, which typically occur when the economy stumbles. With growth healthy, some economists have asked, why cut rates at all? A strong economy also means that the Fed’s policymakers can take their time to consider when and by how much to reduce borrowing costs for consumers and businesses.
At a news conference last month, Powell said that robust hiring, on its own, wouldn’t require the Fed to delay rate cuts. He noted that even though job gains were strong last year, inflation still tumbled thanks in large part to a surge of available workers, mostly from increased immigration.
Some other policymakers, though, said that recent data had given them pause. Lorie Logan, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, said last week that she thought it was too soon to consider rate cuts.