格林·凯尔曼是Redfin的首席执行官。该公司自称是一家科技驱动的房地产公司,提供现代的房屋买卖方式。他掌舵该公司近二十年,但无论是在全球金融危机期间还是现在,他都没有失去热情;他说自己是全世界最幸运的人。
这绝非易事。在疫情及其带来的房地产市场繁荣期间,Redfin股价达到每股超过95美元的高点,但之后却持续下跌,降至约5.50美元。公司面临困境;去年营收下滑,并进行了裁员。不只Redfin面临困境;房地产市场整体上都受到了美联储加息的影响。凯尔曼对《财富》杂志表示:“可悲的是我们失去了40%的员工。我个人要对此负责。虽然事实上我并没有签署他们的入职邀请,但精神上我却是签字人。我却没有把公司发展到能让他们有足够多业务的程度……当美国待售房屋的数量从600万套降至400万套时,局面变得有些艰难。”
去年,美国现房销量降至近30年来的最低点。房地产市场陷入停滞,刚刚开始有好转的迹象。抵押贷款利率达到20多年来的最高水平,虽然后来有所下降,但与疫情之前相比依旧较高。在过去一周左右的时间里,抵押贷款利率再次大幅上涨,达到几个月来最高的7.50%。房价同样居高不下。凯尔曼说道:“买房成本再次上涨,而且房价始终没有下降。美联储一直试图用加息控制通胀,但至少有一个行业难以控制,它就是房地产市场。”
他说道,这令人感到焦虑。住房是基本需求,去年观望的潜在购房人已经厌倦了等待。凯尔曼说道,推迟成家和人生大事的千禧一代,不能继续等待下去。他从未遇到过这种情形,称这是对房地产市场“最糟糕的局面”。他说道:“房地产市场陷入衰退,而其他经济领域却一片繁荣。”
他继续说道:“我在全球金融危机期间就担任CEO。当时销量下滑,房价也在下跌。”凯尔曼表示,一个问题解决了,可以连带解决另外一个问题。通常当销量下滑时,房价就会随之下跌,然后销量会恢复增长,这是一个循环周期。房价再次变得可以承受,而销量因此上涨。但当前的情况却截然不同。利率上涨,而且按照他的说法销量暴跌,但房价并没有随之下降。他说道:“某些方面只是30年抵押贷款的产物。”美联储所作的一切对业主没有实际影响,只是让他们保持现状。凯尔曼解释称:“美联储的行动实际上起到了维持高房价的反作用。”
他不确定到今年年底抵押贷款利率是否还会大幅上涨;根据通胀状况利率甚至可能下跌。他认为房屋销量会有所回升,而且销量已经超出了他的预期。他表示,这是因为人们需要房子——“买房并非一时的狂热”,而是一种“深层次的人类需求,你需要有一栋房子建立家庭。”房地产市场的问题不只是最近的可负担性危机,更大的问题是房屋建设。
凯尔曼说道:“一直以来,房价不断上涨,而资金成本却在下降。”远程办公这个疫情的产物,让人们可以搬去任何心仪的地方。他表示,加州人搬去了德克萨斯和佛罗里达,但所有缓冲都已不复存在。想搬家的人已经完成了搬迁,而且资金成本上涨。解决这个问题唯一的办法就是建房。
他说道:“美国梦的基础就是美国拥有比欧洲更广阔的土地。美国政府一直积极与建筑商合作,建造更多住宅。”但随着一系列法律的出台,这种情况终于发生了变化。凯尔曼认为这些法律的出发点是好的,目的是保护环境,并让人们对社区中建造的房屋类型有更多控制权。但这些法律造成的反噬,使建房变得更加困难。他说道:“无论左派还是右派都很难解决可负担性危机。”
凯尔曼认为,加州可能是解决危机的“原点”。多年来,由于政策失效和不受约束的地方控制,加州的房地产危机日益加剧。虽然加州制定了多项旨在修改地方土地使用法规的倡议,但每次均以失败告终。但这些倡议最终取得了成功。凯尔曼认为这是一个令人鼓舞的迹象,由于一些亟待解决的问题,各级政府终于开始讨论房地产市场的危机。他说道:“拜登政府需要为千禧一代解决的一个基本问题是,当你住在父母家的地下室里时,你会对美国经济感到多乐观?
“如果我们在公共场合赤身裸体,我们就无所畏惧”
除了可负担性危机外,还有一件事对房地产市场造成了冲击:美国房地产经纪人协会(National Association of Realtors)4.18亿美元的和解。凯尔曼说道:“美国房地产经纪人协会不得不选择和解,因为案件危及其生存。密苏里州案件的每一次判决都对其不利,而且这成为其他法院效仿的先例,因此它们不得不选择和解。”
Redfin采取的佣金模式一直不同于行业标准,而且低于行业标准,因此目前尚无法确定该公司会因为此次和解做出哪些改变。他认为,“房地产行业的定价不透明”,可能是阻碍人们在Redfin上买卖房屋的因素。
他说道:“作为一家公司,令我们倍感挫败的是,正常情况下,如果你以更低成本提供更优质的服务,你的客户应该络绎不绝。Redfin从白手起家发展到十亿美元的规模,就是基于这个前提。我以为,如果消费者以价值为驱动,我们本可以增长得更多……购房人越清晰地了解我们提供的服务的价值,我们的销售额就会越高。”
即便如此,凯尔曼表示,他不确定房地产市场是否会在此次和解之后受到影响。佣金标准的变化似乎会让卖房人受益;但它并不会改善住宅的可负担性。他并非要以任何方式为此次和解背书,因为一方面,此次和解仍需要获得批准,而且无法确认事情后续的进展。当然,Redfin自己也面临佣金诉讼。他并没有透露自己是否担心这些诉讼;但他表示,公司处于有利的地位,而且公司存在18年的唯一目的就是为客户提供更好的交易。他说道:“如果全世界更了解Redfin,如果我们在公共场合赤身裸体,我们就无所畏惧。”
Kelman持有Redfin 2%的股份,他是公司薪酬最低的高管。他的现金年薪为30万美元,而且他向公司提出,只有公司的净收入为正,即公司在支付支出后实现盈利,他才会领取奖金,过去三年公司均未达到这个条件。这并不常见。
他说道:“董事会每天都会问我这个问题。我真不知道该如何回答。我感觉这家公司已经让我获得了丰厚回报。能经营这家公司,我就是世界上最幸运的人。美国的问题在于,太多资本家实际上都在从事某种形式的掠夺行为。而我知道领导公司的唯一方式就是以身作则。”(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
Redfin首席执行官格林·凯尔曼,拍摄于2015年。
格林·凯尔曼是Redfin的首席执行官。该公司自称是一家科技驱动的房地产公司,提供现代的房屋买卖方式。他掌舵该公司近二十年,但无论是在全球金融危机期间还是现在,他都没有失去热情;他说自己是全世界最幸运的人。
这绝非易事。在疫情及其带来的房地产市场繁荣期间,Redfin股价达到每股超过95美元的高点,但之后却持续下跌,降至约5.50美元。公司面临困境;去年营收下滑,并进行了裁员。不只Redfin面临困境;房地产市场整体上都受到了美联储加息的影响。凯尔曼对《财富》杂志表示:“可悲的是我们失去了40%的员工。我个人要对此负责。虽然事实上我并没有签署他们的入职邀请,但精神上我却是签字人。我却没有把公司发展到能让他们有足够多业务的程度……当美国待售房屋的数量从600万套降至400万套时,局面变得有些艰难。”
去年,美国现房销量降至近30年来的最低点。房地产市场陷入停滞,刚刚开始有好转的迹象。抵押贷款利率达到20多年来的最高水平,虽然后来有所下降,但与疫情之前相比依旧较高。在过去一周左右的时间里,抵押贷款利率再次大幅上涨,达到几个月来最高的7.50%。房价同样居高不下。凯尔曼说道:“买房成本再次上涨,而且房价始终没有下降。美联储一直试图用加息控制通胀,但至少有一个行业难以控制,它就是房地产市场。”
他说道,这令人感到焦虑。住房是基本需求,去年观望的潜在购房人已经厌倦了等待。凯尔曼说道,推迟成家和人生大事的千禧一代,不能继续等待下去。他从未遇到过这种情形,称这是对房地产市场“最糟糕的局面”。他说道:“房地产市场陷入衰退,而其他经济领域却一片繁荣。”
他继续说道:“我在全球金融危机期间就担任CEO。当时销量下滑,房价也在下跌。”凯尔曼表示,一个问题解决了,可以连带解决另外一个问题。通常当销量下滑时,房价就会随之下跌,然后销量会恢复增长,这是一个循环周期。房价再次变得可以承受,而销量因此上涨。但当前的情况却截然不同。利率上涨,而且按照他的说法销量暴跌,但房价并没有随之下降。他说道:“某些方面只是30年抵押贷款的产物。”美联储所作的一切对业主没有实际影响,只是让他们保持现状。凯尔曼解释称:“美联储的行动实际上起到了维持高房价的反作用。”
他不确定到今年年底抵押贷款利率是否还会大幅上涨;根据通胀状况利率甚至可能下跌。他认为房屋销量会有所回升,而且销量已经超出了他的预期。他表示,这是因为人们需要房子——“买房并非一时的狂热”,而是一种“深层次的人类需求,你需要有一栋房子建立家庭。”房地产市场的问题不只是最近的可负担性危机,更大的问题是房屋建设。
凯尔曼说道:“一直以来,房价不断上涨,而资金成本却在下降。”远程办公这个疫情的产物,让人们可以搬去任何心仪的地方。他表示,加州人搬去了德克萨斯和佛罗里达,但所有缓冲都已不复存在。想搬家的人已经完成了搬迁,而且资金成本上涨。解决这个问题唯一的办法就是建房。
他说道:“美国梦的基础就是美国拥有比欧洲更广阔的土地。美国政府一直积极与建筑商合作,建造更多住宅。”但随着一系列法律的出台,这种情况终于发生了变化。凯尔曼认为这些法律的出发点是好的,目的是保护环境,并让人们对社区中建造的房屋类型有更多控制权。但这些法律造成的反噬,使建房变得更加困难。他说道:“无论左派还是右派都很难解决可负担性危机。”
凯尔曼认为,加州可能是解决危机的“原点”。多年来,由于政策失效和不受约束的地方控制,加州的房地产危机日益加剧。虽然加州制定了多项旨在修改地方土地使用法规的倡议,但每次均以失败告终。但这些倡议最终取得了成功。凯尔曼认为这是一个令人鼓舞的迹象,由于一些亟待解决的问题,各级政府终于开始讨论房地产市场的危机。他说道:“拜登政府需要为千禧一代解决的一个基本问题是,当你住在父母家的地下室里时,你会对美国经济感到多乐观?
“如果我们在公共场合赤身裸体,我们就无所畏惧”
除了可负担性危机外,还有一件事对房地产市场造成了冲击:美国房地产经纪人协会(National Association of Realtors)4.18亿美元的和解。凯尔曼说道:“美国房地产经纪人协会不得不选择和解,因为案件危及其生存。密苏里州案件的每一次判决都对其不利,而且这成为其他法院效仿的先例,因此它们不得不选择和解。”
Redfin采取的佣金模式一直不同于行业标准,而且低于行业标准,因此目前尚无法确定该公司会因为此次和解做出哪些改变。他认为,“房地产行业的定价不透明”,可能是阻碍人们在Redfin上买卖房屋的因素。
他说道:“作为一家公司,令我们倍感挫败的是,正常情况下,如果你以更低成本提供更优质的服务,你的客户应该络绎不绝。Redfin从白手起家发展到十亿美元的规模,就是基于这个前提。我以为,如果消费者以价值为驱动,我们本可以增长得更多……购房人越清晰地了解我们提供的服务的价值,我们的销售额就会越高。”
即便如此,凯尔曼表示,他不确定房地产市场是否会在此次和解之后受到影响。佣金标准的变化似乎会让卖房人受益;但它并不会改善住宅的可负担性。他并非要以任何方式为此次和解背书,因为一方面,此次和解仍需要获得批准,而且无法确认事情后续的进展。当然,Redfin自己也面临佣金诉讼。他并没有透露自己是否担心这些诉讼;但他表示,公司处于有利的地位,而且公司存在18年的唯一目的就是为客户提供更好的交易。他说道:“如果全世界更了解Redfin,如果我们在公共场合赤身裸体,我们就无所畏惧。”
Kelman持有Redfin 2%的股份,他是公司薪酬最低的高管。他的现金年薪为30万美元,而且他向公司提出,只有公司的净收入为正,即公司在支付支出后实现盈利,他才会领取奖金,过去三年公司均未达到这个条件。这并不常见。
他说道:“董事会每天都会问我这个问题。我真不知道该如何回答。我感觉这家公司已经让我获得了丰厚回报。能经营这家公司,我就是世界上最幸运的人。美国的问题在于,太多资本家实际上都在从事某种形式的掠夺行为。而我知道领导公司的唯一方式就是以身作则。”(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
Glenn Kelman, chief executive officer of Redfin, in 2015.
CHRIS GOODNEY—BLOOMBERG/GETTY IMAGES
Glenn Kelman is the chief executive of Redfin, a self-described technology-powered real estate company, a modern way to buy and sell homes. He’s been at the helm for almost two decades and doesn’t seem to have lost his zeal, not during the Great Financial Crisis, not now; he calls himself the luckiest person in the world.
It can’t be easy. Redfin stock reached a high of more than $95 per share during the pandemic and its corresponding housing boom, but it’s trended downward ever since, landing at around $5.50. It’s been a rough ride; revenue dropped last year, and agents were cut. It goes beyond Redfin; all of the housing world suffered as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates. “Losing 40% of our agents is a tragedy,” Kelman told Fortune. “I feel personally responsible for it. I was the one who signed their offer letters in spirit, if not, in fact. And I failed to grow the business to the extent that we could keep them all busy … It’s just hard when the number of homes sold in the United States drops from 6 million to 4 million.”
Last year, existing home sales fell to their lowest point in almost 30 years. The housing market froze, and it’s only just begun to thaw. Mortgage rates were the highest they’ve been in more than 20 years, and they’ve come down since, but are still high compared with those of the pandemic. In the past week or so, mortgage rates surged again, reaching their highest level in months, 7.50%. Home prices are high, too. “The cost of buying a home has gone up again, and prices haven’t come down,” Kelman said. “So the Fed keeps trying to tame inflation with rate increases, but at least one sector is untamable, and that is housing.”
It’s anxiety-inducing, he said. Housing is a basic need, and would-be buyers who held out last year are tired of waiting. Millennials who’ve delayed starting a family, putting off plans, can only wait so long, Kelman said. He’s never seen anything like it, calling it the “worst situation” for the housing market. “Housing is in this recession, and the rest of the economy is booming,” he said.
“I was the CEO during the Great Financial Crisis,” he continued. “Sales volume went down but prices did, too.” One problem fixed another, Kelman said. Usually when sales decline, prices drop too, and then sales increase later—that’s the cycle, he said. Homes become affordable again, and sales pick up because of it. This situation is very different. Interest rates are up, and sales volume has fallen through the floor, as he put it, but home prices haven’t followed. “Some of that is just this artifact of 30-year mortgages,” he said. Everything the Federal Reserve is doing has no real effect on homeowners, apart from keeping them where they are. “It actually has the perverse effect of keeping home prices high,” Kelman explained.
He doesn’t know that mortgage rates will go up significantly through the end of this year; they could even come down, depending on inflation. He thinks sales will improve, and they’ve already been better than he’s expected. That’s because people need homes—it’s not a “fad to own a house,” and there’s a “deep-seated human need to own a home, where you’re going to raise your family,” he said. Still, the problem goes beyond the latest spell of unaffordability, and has more to do with building homes.
“For the longest time, housing was getting very expensive, but money was getting cheaper,” Kelman said, and a product of the pandemic made it so people could move anywhere they wanted: remote work. Californians became Texans and Floridians, but all the buffers are gone, he said. The people who were going to move already have, and money isn’t cheap anymore. The only way to solve the problem is by building homes.
“The basis of the American dream was that there was more land here than there was in Europe,” he said. “And for the longest time, the government was very aggressive, working with builders to create more housing.” But eventually that changed, with what Kelman called well-meaning laws to protect the environment and give people more control over what kind of housing was built in their neighborhoods. That backfired, and it became much harder to build anything. “The left, as well as the right, have really struggled to solve the affordability crisis,” he said.
California is probably ground zero, Kelman said. For years, its housing crisis worsened because of policy failures and unfettered local control. Initiatives were drawn up to change local regulations surrounding land use, and they failed time and time again. But finally, they didn’t. Kelman said it’s an encouraging sign, and finally people are talking about housing at all levels of government because something needs to be done. “Biden’s basic problem with millennials is how optimistic can you be about the economy from your parents’ basement?” Kelman said.
‘If we were completely undressed in public, we would have nothing to fear’
Apart from deteriorated affordability, there’s another thing that’s rocked the housing world: the National Association of Realtors’ $418 million settlement. “NAR had to settle—it was existential,” Kelman said. “Every judgment in the Missouri case had gone against them, and that was a precedent that other courts would follow, so they had to.”
Redfin’s commissions model has always been different from, and lower than, the industry standard, so it’s not clear what will change at the company. The “opacity of pricing in the real estate industry,” he suggested, might have actually kept people from selling and buying with Redfin.
“Our great frustration as a business has been normally, when you offer better service for less money, the world beats a path to your door,” he said. “And Redfin has grown from zero to a billion dollars on that premise. And yet, I think we could have grown more if consumers were value driven … The more clearly buyers understand the value of what we offer, the more sales we’ll get.”
Even so, Kelman said he doesn’t know that the housing market will be affected following the settlement. If anything, the change in commissions seems to benefit sellers; it won’t make housing more affordable. He’s not endorsing the settlement by any means, because for one, it still needs to be approved—and there’s no way to know for sure how everything will shake out. Of course, Redfin is facing its own commissions lawsuits. He wouldn’t comment on whether he’s at all worried; instead he said the company was in a good position and that its sole existence for 18 years has been to give people a better deal. “If the world knew more about Redfin, if we were completely undressed in public, we would have nothing to fear,” he said.
While Kelman holds a 2% stake in Redfin, he is the lowest paid person on his executive team. He takes home $300,000 a year in a cash salary, and requests that he only get a bonus if positive net income is achieved, basically if the company makes money after paying expenses, which it hasn’t in the past three years. It’s not often you see that.
“My board asks me that question every year,” he said. “I don’t really know what to say. I feel like I’ve made a king’s ransom off this company. I’m the luckiest person in the world to be able to run it, and what’s wrong with America is that so many capitalists are really engaged in a form of plunder. And I don’t know how to lead except by example.”