房价在过去十年中翻了一番,仅在过去五年就上涨了近50%。拥有一套住房的成本创历史新高。根据Redfin委托进行的一项调查,这意味着很多人如果现在买房,也负担不起高房价。
房主们被问到:“如果你想买房,你认为自己现在能买得起你所在社区的类似房屋吗?”近40%的受访者表示,他们“可能”或“绝对”买不起。大多数接受调查的房主(约占80%)已经在他们的房子里住了至少5到10年。分析称:“这意味着,大多数受访者在购房后,都经历了所在社区的房价飙升。”
调查发现:“按世代划分,如果婴儿潮一代现在买房,最不可能负担得起现在的房子。”近一半(45%)的婴儿潮一代表示,他们现在买不起所在社区的房子。虽然他们可能不喜欢听到这样的言论,但所有人都喜欢谈论婴儿潮一代是如何以微乎其微的价格买下自己的房子,并看着它们升值的。站在他们的立场,婴儿潮一代被迫应对高得多的抵押贷款利率,而且当时的房价对他们来说也不低。
无论如何,在疫情爆发和随之而来的房地产热潮之前,房价就已经很高了,但那时候房价才真正飙升。从那以后,房价就没有出现过实质性下跌。尽管还有其他原因:在疫情期间,抵押贷款利率比以往任何时候都低(这也是房地产热潮的部分原因),但随着美联储提高利率以抑制通货膨胀,抵押贷款利率飙升。现在,30年期固定抵押贷款平均利率为7.43%,全美房屋销售价格中位数为41.77万美元。这比人们习以为常的利率要高得多,而且抵押贷款利率引发了锁定效应:为什么要出售利率低于3%的房子来换利率高于7%的房子呢?
分析称:“事实上,购买面积更大、条件更好的房子,甚至是类似的房子,对很多美国人来说都是遥不可及的,这是抵押贷款利率锁定效应背后的驱动力。几乎所有房主的抵押贷款利率都低于目前的水平,导致待售房屋短缺。”
但房地产市场是复杂的。仅仅说高房价不利是远远不够的,原因是高房价对谁不利呢?嗯,任何想购房的人。但高房价对已经拥有住房的人来说并不是坏事。另外,由于抵押贷款利率上升,人们不再出售自己的房子,但让人们继续住在自己的房子里比强迫他们出售要好得多(Redfin首席执行官官格伦·凯尔曼最近在接受《财富》杂志采访时表示,这是30年期抵押贷款的后遗症)。
Redfin资深经济学家伊利亚·德拉坎帕表示:“房价上涨是一把双刃剑。一方面,已经拥有住房的美国人从房价上涨中获益,他们认为自己很幸运,在自己还能负担得起的时候就进入了房地产市场。”
他继续说道:“另一方面,价格上涨使很多想要搬家的人对购买新房望而却步,甚至觉得这一前景无法实现。房价已经涨得足够高,即使考虑到通货膨胀因素,一套类似地理位置的房子的房价也要比某人已经拥有的房子房价高得多。再加上抵押贷款利率上升,搬到面积更大、条件更好的房子会更加昂贵,甚至可能遥不可及。”
如果你今天不得不买房,即使买不起现在的房子也比完全负担不起要好。不过,这也说明住房负担能力变得有多低。(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
房价在过去十年中翻了一番,仅在过去五年就上涨了近50%。拥有一套住房的成本创历史新高。根据Redfin委托进行的一项调查,这意味着很多人如果现在买房,也负担不起高房价。
房主们被问到:“如果你想买房,你认为自己现在能买得起你所在社区的类似房屋吗?”近40%的受访者表示,他们“可能”或“绝对”买不起。大多数接受调查的房主(约占80%)已经在他们的房子里住了至少5到10年。分析称:“这意味着,大多数受访者在购房后,都经历了所在社区的房价飙升。”
调查发现:“按世代划分,如果婴儿潮一代现在买房,最不可能负担得起现在的房子。”近一半(45%)的婴儿潮一代表示,他们现在买不起所在社区的房子。虽然他们可能不喜欢听到这样的言论,但所有人都喜欢谈论婴儿潮一代是如何以微乎其微的价格买下自己的房子,并看着它们升值的。站在他们的立场,婴儿潮一代被迫应对高得多的抵押贷款利率,而且当时的房价对他们来说也不低。
无论如何,在疫情爆发和随之而来的房地产热潮之前,房价就已经很高了,但那时候房价才真正飙升。从那以后,房价就没有出现过实质性下跌。尽管还有其他原因:在疫情期间,抵押贷款利率比以往任何时候都低(这也是房地产热潮的部分原因),但随着美联储提高利率以抑制通货膨胀,抵押贷款利率飙升。现在,30年期固定抵押贷款平均利率为7.43%,全美房屋销售价格中位数为41.77万美元。这比人们习以为常的利率要高得多,而且抵押贷款利率引发了锁定效应:为什么要出售利率低于3%的房子来换利率高于7%的房子呢?
分析称:“事实上,购买面积更大、条件更好的房子,甚至是类似的房子,对很多美国人来说都是遥不可及的,这是抵押贷款利率锁定效应背后的驱动力。几乎所有房主的抵押贷款利率都低于目前的水平,导致待售房屋短缺。”
但房地产市场是复杂的。仅仅说高房价不利是远远不够的,原因是高房价对谁不利呢?嗯,任何想购房的人。但高房价对已经拥有住房的人来说并不是坏事。另外,由于抵押贷款利率上升,人们不再出售自己的房子,但让人们继续住在自己的房子里比强迫他们出售要好得多(Redfin首席执行官官格伦·凯尔曼最近在接受《财富》杂志采访时表示,这是30年期抵押贷款的后遗症)。
Redfin资深经济学家伊利亚·德拉坎帕表示:“房价上涨是一把双刃剑。一方面,已经拥有住房的美国人从房价上涨中获益,他们认为自己很幸运,在自己还能负担得起的时候就进入了房地产市场。”
他继续说道:“另一方面,价格上涨使很多想要搬家的人对购买新房望而却步,甚至觉得这一前景无法实现。房价已经涨得足够高,即使考虑到通货膨胀因素,一套类似地理位置的房子的房价也要比某人已经拥有的房子房价高得多。再加上抵押贷款利率上升,搬到面积更大、条件更好的房子会更加昂贵,甚至可能遥不可及。”
如果你今天不得不买房,即使买不起现在的房子也比完全负担不起要好。不过,这也说明住房负担能力变得有多低。(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
Home prices have doubled over the past decade, rising almost 50% in the past five years alone. And the cost of owning a home is the highest on record. This means a lot of people wouldn’t be able to afford their current home if they had to buy it today, according to a Redfin-commissioned survey.
Homeowners were asked, “If you were looking to purchase a home, do you think you could afford a home like yours in your neighborhood today?” And almost 40% of respondents said they “probably” or “definitely” couldn’t. Most homeowners who responded to the survey (roughly 80%) have lived in their home for at least five to 10 years. “That means the majority of respondents have seen housing prices in their neighborhood skyrocket since they purchased their home,” the analysis said.
“Broken down by generation, baby boomers are least likely to be able to afford their current home if they were to buy it today,” the survey found. Almost half, or 45%, of baby boomers said they couldn’t afford a home in their neighborhood today. And while they may not like to hear it, everyone loves to talk about how baby boomers bought their homes for what feels like next to nothing and watched them appreciate in value. In their defense, boomers had to deal with much higher mortgage rates, and home prices didn’t feel like nothing to them at the time.
Either way, home prices were already high before the pandemic and its corresponding housing boom—but that’s when prices really skyrocketed. They haven’t fallen meaningfully since. Although there’s more to it: Mortgage rates were lower than they’d ever been during the pandemic (which is part of the reason we had a housing boom), but they shot up as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to tame inflation. Now, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 7.43%, and the median sales price for homes throughout the country is $417,700. That’s a lot more than people are used to, and on the mortgage-rate side, it’s triggered the lock-in effect—why sell your home with a rate below 3% for one that’s above 7%?
“The fact that buying a bigger, better home—or even a similar home—is financially out of reach for so many Americans is the driving force behind the mortgage-rate lock-in effect,” the analysis said. “Nearly all homeowners have a mortgage rate below today’s level, contributing to a shortage of homes for sale.”
But the housing world is complicated. It’s never enough to simply say high home prices are bad—because who are they bad for? Well, anyone who wants to buy a home. But high home prices aren’t bad for people who already own a home. Separately, people stopped selling their homes because of higher mortgage rates, but keeping people in their homes is far better than forcing them to sell (an artifact of 30-year mortgages, as Redfin’s chief executive, Glenn Kelman, recently put it in an interview with Fortune).
“Rising home prices are a double-edged sword,” Redfin senior economist Elijah de la Campa said. “On the one hand, Americans who already own homes benefit from rising values, and they can consider themselves lucky they broke into the housing market while they could still afford it.”
He continued: “On the other hand, price appreciation makes the prospect of buying a new home daunting or even impossible for many people who want to move. Prices have risen enough that a similar home and location would be much pricier than a home someone already owns—even accounting for inflation. Add elevated mortgage rates to the equation, and moving up to a bigger, better home is even more costly and perhaps out of reach.”
Not being able to afford your current home if you had to buy it today is better than not being able to afford a home at all. Still, it goes to show how unaffordable housing has become.