美国第一季度的GDP明显减速,远不及预期,这在华尔街引起了对滞胀的恐慌。
富国银行经济学家在上周四发布了一篇报告,名为《披着羊皮的狼:GDP疲软掩盖了消费激增》(Wolf in Sheep’s Clothing: Soft GDP Hides Surging Spending)。该报告指出,1.6%的整体GDP增长率受到了波动因素的影响,如贸易逆差扩大和库存补充速度放缓等,这些因素掩盖了消费者需求依旧强劲的事实。
这份报告称,消费者的商品支出确实在减少,而且GDP报告显示大宗耐用品支出以每年1.2%的速度收缩。但这被服务支出激增所抵消。
经济学家蒂姆·昆兰和香侬·西里·格伦写道:“就像棒球比赛后段的救援投手一样,第一季度的服务支出迅速增长,年增长率达到4.0%,这是自2021年在刺激政策推动下消费激增以来,消费者服务支出的最快涨幅。”
他们补充道,除了2020年和2021年疫情导致的封锁和重启使数据失真以外,在过去二十年服务支出增长率只有三次超过4%。其中2014年一次,2004年两次。
事实上,服务业需求依旧强劲,服务业价格上涨5.1%,远高于3.7%的广义核心通胀率,而后者较前一个季度已经有所上涨。
与此同时,富国银行的报告指出,第一季度实际可支配收入增速放缓,但美国人依旧在以更快的速度消费,导致个人储蓄率降至自2022年底以来的最低水平。
但贸易逆差和库存数据掩盖了更稳健的消费者支出数据。富国银行表示,如果剔除贸易的影响,第一季度的报告将符合预期。
在剔除贸易逆差之后,另外一个衡量基本国内需求的指标——库存与政府支出——增长了3.1%。
富国银行的结论是:“过去三个季度,这个指标都达到了3.0%甚至更高,这意味着增长稳健。不要低估美国经济。”
该银行的报告代表了一种与其他方的悲观反应截然不同的立场。
安永(EY)首席经济学家格雷戈利·达科之前曾对《财富》杂志表示,GDP报告不仅削弱了关于美国经济“不着陆”并重新加速的讨论,他还警告如果通胀依旧顽固,继续降低收入并使金融状况紧缩,可能存在进一步经济下行的风险。
TradeStation全球市场策略主管大卫·拉塞尔也告诉《财富》杂志,滞胀的威胁日益严峻。“如果在增长如此疲软的情况下通货膨胀依旧没有改善,你就不得不怀疑价格走低的趋势是否将会持续。”(财富中文网)
翻译:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
美国第一季度的GDP明显减速,远不及预期,这在华尔街引起了对滞胀的恐慌。
富国银行经济学家在上周四发布了一篇报告,名为《披着羊皮的狼:GDP疲软掩盖了消费激增》(Wolf in Sheep’s Clothing: Soft GDP Hides Surging Spending)。该报告指出,1.6%的整体GDP增长率受到了波动因素的影响,如贸易逆差扩大和库存补充速度放缓等,这些因素掩盖了消费者需求依旧强劲的事实。
这份报告称,消费者的商品支出确实在减少,而且GDP报告显示大宗耐用品支出以每年1.2%的速度收缩。但这被服务支出激增所抵消。
经济学家蒂姆·昆兰和香侬·西里·格伦写道:“就像棒球比赛后段的救援投手一样,第一季度的服务支出迅速增长,年增长率达到4.0%,这是自2021年在刺激政策推动下消费激增以来,消费者服务支出的最快涨幅。”
他们补充道,除了2020年和2021年疫情导致的封锁和重启使数据失真以外,在过去二十年服务支出增长率只有三次超过4%。其中2014年一次,2004年两次。
事实上,服务业需求依旧强劲,服务业价格上涨5.1%,远高于3.7%的广义核心通胀率,而后者较前一个季度已经有所上涨。
与此同时,富国银行的报告指出,第一季度实际可支配收入增速放缓,但美国人依旧在以更快的速度消费,导致个人储蓄率降至自2022年底以来的最低水平。
但贸易逆差和库存数据掩盖了更稳健的消费者支出数据。富国银行表示,如果剔除贸易的影响,第一季度的报告将符合预期。
在剔除贸易逆差之后,另外一个衡量基本国内需求的指标——库存与政府支出——增长了3.1%。
富国银行的结论是:“过去三个季度,这个指标都达到了3.0%甚至更高,这意味着增长稳健。不要低估美国经济。”
该银行的报告代表了一种与其他方的悲观反应截然不同的立场。
安永(EY)首席经济学家格雷戈利·达科之前曾对《财富》杂志表示,GDP报告不仅削弱了关于美国经济“不着陆”并重新加速的讨论,他还警告如果通胀依旧顽固,继续降低收入并使金融状况紧缩,可能存在进一步经济下行的风险。
TradeStation全球市场策略主管大卫·拉塞尔也告诉《财富》杂志,滞胀的威胁日益严峻。“如果在增长如此疲软的情况下通货膨胀依旧没有改善,你就不得不怀疑价格走低的趋势是否将会持续。”(财富中文网)
翻译:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
The first-quarter GDP report showed so much deceleration and missed estimates by such a wide margin that stagflation fears are increasingly creeping into Wall Street chatter.
But the headline number of 1.6% growth was weighed down by volatile factors like a wider trade deficit and slower inventory restocking, which masked how robust consumer demand continues to be, said Wells Fargo economists in a Thursday note titled “Wolf in Sheep’s Clothing: Soft GDP Hides Surging Spending.”
To be sure, consumers are spending less on goods, and the GDP report showed that outlays on big-ticket durable goods contracted at a 1.2% annualized pace, according to the note. But that was more than offset by a surge in spending on services.
“Like a relief pitcher in the late innings, services spending came in throwing heat in the first quarter with a blistering 4.0% annualized growth rate—the fastest surge in consumer services spending since the stimulus-fueled binge in 2021,” wrote economists Tim Quinlan and Shannon Seery Grein.
Excluding 2020 and 2021, when the pandemic lockdown and reopening skewed data, growth in services spending has only topped 4% three times in the last two decades, they added. It happened once in 2014 and twice in 2004.
In fact, demand remains so strong in services that the 5.1% price increase in the sector outpaced the broader core rate of 3.7%, which was already an uptick from the prior quarter.
Meanwhile, real disposable incomes saw slower growth in the quarter, but Americans continued to spend at a faster clip, sending the personal savings rate to the lowest since the end of 2022, the note said.
But trade deficit and inventory data obscured the more robust consumer figures. Stripping out the trade impact alone would have put the first-quarter report in line with forecasts, Wells Fargo said.
Another gauge of underlying domestic demand that excludes the trade gap, inventories and government spending rose 3.1%.
“The last three quarterly prints for this measure have all come in at 3.0% or higher, signaling healthy and stable growth,” Wells Fargo concluded. “Don’t underestimate this economy.”
The bank’s note represents somewhat of a counter-narrative to the gloomy reactions elsewhere.
EY chief economist Gregory Daco told Fortune earlier that the GDP report not only undercuts talk of a re-accelerating “no landing” economy, but he warned there’s further downside risk if inflation remains stubborn, eroding incomes and keeping financial conditions tight.
David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, also told Fortune that stagflation is a growing threat. “If inflation isn’t getting better with such weak growth, you have to wonder if the trend toward lower prices will continue.”