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巴菲特接班计划有变,格雷格·阿贝尔可能负责公司的投资业务

巴菲特的接班人是许多人最关注的议题之一。

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格雷格·阿贝尔(左)与伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司的一位股东自拍。图片来源:JOSH FUNK—AP PHOTO

今年的伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway)股东大会,为股东们提供了一次最佳的机会,让他们可以聆听沃伦·巴菲特的未来接班人的见解。但公司的首席执行官巴菲特于5月4日首次表示,格雷格·阿贝尔在接班后还将负责公司的投资决策,这让股东们对他的接班人计划产生了新的质疑。

阿贝尔全天与巴菲特同台,展示了他在直接领导多年的公用事业部门积累的渊博知识,并深入探讨了伯克希尔-哈撒韦的铁路业务和潜在收购项目。93岁的亿万富翁巴菲特则向投资者证明,他依旧头脑清晰。

阿贝尔指出,太平洋电力公司(PacifiCorp)和其他公用事业公司的员工长期专注于保证电力不间断供应,这些公司需要进行重大文化转变,考虑当输电线路引发野火的风险过大时切断供电。他还表示,伯灵顿北方圣达菲铁路公司(BNSF)在公布令人失望的业绩之后,正在努力“优化我们的成本结构”。

对于在奥马哈会场听两人演讲的数千人来说,在2023年秋天公司副董事长查理·芒格去世之后,接班人显然成为许多人最关注的议题。巴菲特、阿贝尔和保险业务的另外一位高管阿吉塔·贾恩安慰投资者,按照贾恩的说法,伯克希尔-哈撒韦的董事会花费了大量时间,专心解决“在我被卡车撞到之后公司运营可能出现的情况”。为三人中的任何一个人找到合适的替代者都至关重要。

巴菲特之前曾经表示,在阿贝尔担任首席执行官之后,投资经理泰德·韦施勒和托德·库姆斯将负责伯克希尔-哈撒韦庞大的投资组合。库姆斯同时还担任美国政府员工保险公司(Geico)的首席执行官。但巴菲特在5月4日称,他改变了想法,“我了解格雷格,我会把资本配置留给格雷格来负责。”

巴菲特还表示,这是因为阿贝尔非常熟悉公司的业务,而且也了解股票。

但爱德华·琼斯公司(Edward Jones)的分析师詹姆斯·沙纳汉指出,一家好公司不一定能够成为一只好股票,除非你可以把握好时机和仓位规模,这是一门艺术。

沙纳汉说:“我认为选股很难。我并不认为有人从最开始就擅长选股。”

阿贝尔在负责伯克希尔-哈撒韦公用事业部门的十年间,确实曾经主持过数十亿美元的交易,包括收购NV Energy和AltaLink,但他从来没有选股经验。韦施勒和库姆斯或许能够帮助阿贝尔选择恰当的时机,并在股市寻找机会,但巴菲特在5月4日并没有这样说。

阿贝尔向股东保证:“我们将继续遵守目前所采用的资本配置原则。”

斯密德资本管理公司(Smead Capital Management)的科尔·斯密德称:“这会让你对后巴菲特时代的信心增加还是打折扣?我想说这会让你的信心大打折扣,这不只是因为这是更坏的情况,而是因为候选人的筛选过程并不透明,也没有清晰地对公众说明。你会开始质疑,还有哪些方面会发生变化?”

毫无疑问,阿贝尔获得了伯克希尔-哈撒韦旗下许多非保险业务的首席执行官们的信任,他们遇到任何挑战时都会向他汇报,并征求他的意见。

今年刚刚接任Brooks Running公司首席执行官的丹·谢里登表示:“格雷格每天要接触更多事务。因此他的观点很有价值。他的才智对我们所有人来说非常难得,值得我们借鉴。”他指出,阿贝尔为人谦逊,对业务充满了好奇心,而且会提出刁钻的问题。

时思糖果(See’s Candies)的首席执行官帕特·伊根补充道,阿贝尔体现了伯克希尔-哈撒韦的核心价值观,这家公司注重诚信、关怀客户和增强品牌,同时赋予子公司独立运营的自由。

地板业巨头Shaw Industries的首席执行官蒂姆·鲍科姆说:“他真的希望我们了解我们的公司,理解各种参数,并管理好公司的日常运营。因此我感觉我拥有完全的自由,但自由伴随着责任。”

参加会议的股东们仍然充满信心。除了听巴菲特和阿贝尔演讲,他们还花了几个小时在伯克希尔-哈撒韦子公司设立的摊位上购物,并与高管们交流。有些人甚至有机会与阿贝尔自拍,只是巴菲特没有在展厅内公开露面。

第二次从弗吉尼亚州里士满前往奥马哈的迈克尔·格里扎德表示:“我认为他们不会有问题。他们有得力的助手,而且我们认为他们有良好的文化。”

斯密德称,即便世界上有史以来最伟大的投资者之一巴菲特,除了价值1,350亿美元的苹果(Apple)股份外,最近也很难找到可以让伯克希尔-哈撒韦有所作为的好投资对象。虽然今年公司减少了对苹果的持股,但对苹果的投资依然是公司最大手笔的投资。

无论阿尔巴作为投资者有多优秀,他都很难找到足够大的交易,以增加伯克希尔-哈撒韦的收益。公司第一季度的收益下滑至接近130亿美元。这个挑战正是巴菲特警告投资者不要期待伯克希尔-哈撒韦能够重现“惊人业绩”的主要原因。

但目前,巴菲特已经表明,阿贝尔或许不需要在短期内接班,因为巴菲特仍旧状态良好,而且尽管他在5月4日承认自己的精力大不如前,他一直说自己没有退休计划。市场研究公司CFRA Research的分析师凯西·塞弗特对巴菲特的干劲记忆深刻。

塞弗特说:“从巴菲特在这次会议上的表现,我没有看到任何令人担忧或困扰的地方。”(财富中文网)

译者:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

今年的伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway)股东大会,为股东们提供了一次最佳的机会,让他们可以聆听沃伦·巴菲特的未来接班人的见解。但公司的首席执行官巴菲特于5月4日首次表示,格雷格·阿贝尔在接班后还将负责公司的投资决策,这让股东们对他的接班人计划产生了新的质疑。

阿贝尔全天与巴菲特同台,展示了他在直接领导多年的公用事业部门积累的渊博知识,并深入探讨了伯克希尔-哈撒韦的铁路业务和潜在收购项目。93岁的亿万富翁巴菲特则向投资者证明,他依旧头脑清晰。

阿贝尔指出,太平洋电力公司(PacifiCorp)和其他公用事业公司的员工长期专注于保证电力不间断供应,这些公司需要进行重大文化转变,考虑当输电线路引发野火的风险过大时切断供电。他还表示,伯灵顿北方圣达菲铁路公司(BNSF)在公布令人失望的业绩之后,正在努力“优化我们的成本结构”。

对于在奥马哈会场听两人演讲的数千人来说,在2023年秋天公司副董事长查理·芒格去世之后,接班人显然成为许多人最关注的议题。巴菲特、阿贝尔和保险业务的另外一位高管阿吉塔·贾恩安慰投资者,按照贾恩的说法,伯克希尔-哈撒韦的董事会花费了大量时间,专心解决“在我被卡车撞到之后公司运营可能出现的情况”。为三人中的任何一个人找到合适的替代者都至关重要。

巴菲特之前曾经表示,在阿贝尔担任首席执行官之后,投资经理泰德·韦施勒和托德·库姆斯将负责伯克希尔-哈撒韦庞大的投资组合。库姆斯同时还担任美国政府员工保险公司(Geico)的首席执行官。但巴菲特在5月4日称,他改变了想法,“我了解格雷格,我会把资本配置留给格雷格来负责。”

巴菲特还表示,这是因为阿贝尔非常熟悉公司的业务,而且也了解股票。

但爱德华·琼斯公司(Edward Jones)的分析师詹姆斯·沙纳汉指出,一家好公司不一定能够成为一只好股票,除非你可以把握好时机和仓位规模,这是一门艺术。

沙纳汉说:“我认为选股很难。我并不认为有人从最开始就擅长选股。”

阿贝尔在负责伯克希尔-哈撒韦公用事业部门的十年间,确实曾经主持过数十亿美元的交易,包括收购NV Energy和AltaLink,但他从来没有选股经验。韦施勒和库姆斯或许能够帮助阿贝尔选择恰当的时机,并在股市寻找机会,但巴菲特在5月4日并没有这样说。

阿贝尔向股东保证:“我们将继续遵守目前所采用的资本配置原则。”

斯密德资本管理公司(Smead Capital Management)的科尔·斯密德称:“这会让你对后巴菲特时代的信心增加还是打折扣?我想说这会让你的信心大打折扣,这不只是因为这是更坏的情况,而是因为候选人的筛选过程并不透明,也没有清晰地对公众说明。你会开始质疑,还有哪些方面会发生变化?”

毫无疑问,阿贝尔获得了伯克希尔-哈撒韦旗下许多非保险业务的首席执行官们的信任,他们遇到任何挑战时都会向他汇报,并征求他的意见。

今年刚刚接任Brooks Running公司首席执行官的丹·谢里登表示:“格雷格每天要接触更多事务。因此他的观点很有价值。他的才智对我们所有人来说非常难得,值得我们借鉴。”他指出,阿贝尔为人谦逊,对业务充满了好奇心,而且会提出刁钻的问题。

时思糖果(See’s Candies)的首席执行官帕特·伊根补充道,阿贝尔体现了伯克希尔-哈撒韦的核心价值观,这家公司注重诚信、关怀客户和增强品牌,同时赋予子公司独立运营的自由。

地板业巨头Shaw Industries的首席执行官蒂姆·鲍科姆说:“他真的希望我们了解我们的公司,理解各种参数,并管理好公司的日常运营。因此我感觉我拥有完全的自由,但自由伴随着责任。”

参加会议的股东们仍然充满信心。除了听巴菲特和阿贝尔演讲,他们还花了几个小时在伯克希尔-哈撒韦子公司设立的摊位上购物,并与高管们交流。有些人甚至有机会与阿贝尔自拍,只是巴菲特没有在展厅内公开露面。

第二次从弗吉尼亚州里士满前往奥马哈的迈克尔·格里扎德表示:“我认为他们不会有问题。他们有得力的助手,而且我们认为他们有良好的文化。”

斯密德称,即便世界上有史以来最伟大的投资者之一巴菲特,除了价值1,350亿美元的苹果(Apple)股份外,最近也很难找到可以让伯克希尔-哈撒韦有所作为的好投资对象。虽然今年公司减少了对苹果的持股,但对苹果的投资依然是公司最大手笔的投资。

无论阿尔巴作为投资者有多优秀,他都很难找到足够大的交易,以增加伯克希尔-哈撒韦的收益。公司第一季度的收益下滑至接近130亿美元。这个挑战正是巴菲特警告投资者不要期待伯克希尔-哈撒韦能够重现“惊人业绩”的主要原因。

但目前,巴菲特已经表明,阿贝尔或许不需要在短期内接班,因为巴菲特仍旧状态良好,而且尽管他在5月4日承认自己的精力大不如前,他一直说自己没有退休计划。市场研究公司CFRA Research的分析师凯西·塞弗特对巴菲特的干劲记忆深刻。

塞弗特说:“从巴菲特在这次会议上的表现,我没有看到任何令人担忧或困扰的地方。”(财富中文网)

译者:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

This year’s Berkshire Hathaway meeting gave shareholders their best chance yet to hear from the man who will one day take over as CEO when Warren Buffett is gone, but Buffett said for the first time on May 4 that Greg Abel should also take responsibility for the company’s investments after he takes over, raising new questions about the succession plan.

Abel put his encyclopedic knowledge of the utility business that he led directly for years on display and delved into railroad operations and potential acquisitions that Berkshire pursued while sharing the stage with Buffett all day. For his part, the 93-year-old billionaire showed investors he is still sharp.

Abel pointed out that it required a major culture shift to get workers at PacifiCorp and the other utilities, who have long focused all their energy on keeping the lights on, to think about shutting the power down at times when the risk that their power lines could spark wildfires is too great. He also said BNSF railroad is working on getting “our cost structure right” after delivering disappointing results.

Succession was clearly top of mind for many of the thousands of people who filled an Omaha arena to listen to the two men after last fall’s death of Vice Chairman Charlie Munger. Buffett, Abel and Ajit Jain, Berkshire’s other top executive who oversees the company’s insurers, reassured investors that Berkshire’s board spends plenty of time focused on “what would happen to the operation if I get hit by a truck,” as Jain put it. Finding the right replacement for any of the three of them will be important.

Previously, Buffett had said that when Abel becomes CEO, investment managers Ted Weschler and Todd Combs, who’s also taken on the responsibility of being Geico’s CEO, would handle Berkshire’s massive portfolio. But Buffett said on May 4 that his thinking has evolved, and that “I would probably, knowing Greg, I would leave the capital allocation to Greg.”

And Buffett said because Abel understands businesses so well, he also understands stocks.

But Edward Jones analyst James Shanahan said a good business doesn’t always make a good stock unless you get the timing and position size right, and there is an art to that.

“I think stock picking is hard. I don’t think it’s something you can just start doing and be good at it,” Shanahan said.

Abel does have a history of making multibillion-dollar deals when he was the head of Berkshire’s utility unit for a decade, including the acquisitions of NV Energy and AltaLink, but he’s never been a stock picker. Weschler and Combs might be able to help Abel get the timing right and find opportunities in the stock market, but Buffett didn’t say that on May 4.

Abel just reassured shareholders that “the capital allocation principles that we use today will be maintained.”

“Does that give you more or less confidence post-Buffett? I would say it’s got to give you less — not because it’s a worse circumstance — but because it hasn’t been very transparent and communicated that clearly. You’ve got to start asking, well, what else is going to change?” said Cole Smead with Smead Capital Management.

Abel definitely has the confidence of the CEOs at all of Berkshire’s many varied noninsurance businesses who report to him and ask his advice on any challenges they are facing.

“Greg sees so much more than I do on a daily basis. So his perspective is valued, and his wisdom is something that is such a luxury for all of us to be able to tap into,” said Dan Sheridan, who just became CEO of Brooks Running this year after his predecessor retired. He said Abel is always humble and curious about the business, even while asking challenging questions.

See’s Candies CEO Pat Egan added that Abel reflects all of Berkshire’s core values, with the company’s emphasis on integrity, taking care of customers and strengthening brands, while still giving Berkshire’s subsidiaries the freedom to operate independently.

“He really expects us to know our business, understand the parameters, and to run our business on a day to day basis,” said Tim Baucom, CEO of flooring giant Shaw Industries. “So I feel like I have all the freedom of the world, but with freedom comes responsibility.”

The shareholders who attended the meeting and spent hours shopping and talking with executives at the booths Berkshire subsidiaries set up when they weren’t listening to Buffett and Abel remain confident. Some of them even got the chance to take selfies with Abel, though Buffett no longer tours the exhibit hall in public.

“I think they’ll be fine,” said Michael Grizzard, who made the trip to Omaha from Richmond, Virginia, for the second time. “They’re in good hands, and I think they have a good culture.”

Smead said even Buffett, who is easily one of the greatest investors the world has ever seen, has been having a hard time lately finding good investments big enough to make a difference at Berkshire except for the $135 billion Apple stake that remains its largest investment even after some trimming this year.

So no matter how good an investor Abel is, he will have a hard time finding deals big enough to provide a meaningful boost to Berkshire’s earnings that approached $13 billion in a down first quarter. That challenge is a big part of why Buffett has warned investors not to expect any of the “eye-popping performance” of Berkshire’s past.

But for now, Buffett showed that Abel may not need to take over anytime soon because he looked good and he has long said he has no plans to retire, even if he acknowledged on May 4 that he doesn’t have the same energy he used to. CFRA Research analyst Cathy Seifert came away impressed with his stamina.

“There wasn’t anything in that performance that I found worrisome or troubling,” Seifert said.

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