近年来,美国房地产市场一直受到供应不足的影响,而日本的情况却恰恰相反,人口减少导致空置房屋数量飙升。
根据日本总务省(Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications)在今年4月30日公布的数据,该国的空置房屋已经达到899万套。这一数字比2018年的上一次调查增加了50万,比20年前激增了80%。
这也意味着日本目前有创纪录的13.8%的房屋空置,在一些人口下降较快的农村地区,这一比例超过了20%。
这一数字包括第二套住房和因为居民在其他地方临时工作等原因而空置的住房。但废弃房屋的数量也在跃升,比2018年的调查增加了36万套,达到目前的385万套,占所有房屋的5.9%。
无独有偶,美国人口调查局(U.S. Census Bureau)也在4月30日发布了类似的数据,报告称第一季度租赁住房的空置率为6.6%,自有住房的空置率为0.8%。这些数据与一年前相比变化甚微。
日本的空置率与野村综合研究所(Nomura Research Institute)早些时候的一份报告一致,该研究所曾经在2017年预测,如果不采取任何措施,到2033年日本房屋空置率可能就会超过30.4%。
该机构警告称:“三分之一的房屋空置意味着,平均每户人家隔壁都有一栋房屋空置。”
想象一下,一排三栋房子,中间一栋空置,这意味着另外两栋有人居住的房屋挨着一栋空置房屋。
野村综合研究所补充道:“无人居住的房屋会成为垃圾堆放点,容易倒塌,并吸引可疑人员。从安全和防灾的角度来看,30%的房屋空置肯定是不可取的。”
野村综合研究所指出,最佳解决办法是增加日本人口,或者至少阻止人口减少,但该研究所也承认这很困难,需要很长时间才能够实现目标。日本人口多年来一直在下降,2022年的最新统计显示,日本人口比上一年减少了80多万,降至1.254亿。与此同时,出生率创历史新低,儿童数量已经连续43年下降。
其他方案包括拆除空置房屋、限制新建房屋,以及将其改建为非住宅物业。日本政府曾经试图通过允许地方政府在房屋没有得到改善的情况下拆除面临倒塌风险的房屋,或者向管理不善的业主发出警告来解决这一问题。但据《日本经济新闻》(Nikkei)报道,这些努力收效甚微。
专家告诉美国有线电视新闻网(CNN),税收政策也让一些房屋空置比拆除更为划算,而其他房产则因为记录混乱导致所有权不明而陷入繁琐程序。
许多外国人认为日本的房地产市场上有特价房,但高昂的翻新成本和语言障碍可能会阻碍许多房屋以这种方式出售。
位于日本千叶的神田外语大学(Kanda University of International Studies)的讲师杰弗里·霍尔对美国有线电视新闻网表示:“事实上,这些房屋大多不会出售给外国人,或者说,对于那些不会说日语、也无法读懂日语的人而言,完成大量的行政工作和理解背后的规则并不容易。他们不可能以低价买入这些房屋。”(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
近年来,美国房地产市场一直受到供应不足的影响,而日本的情况却恰恰相反,人口减少导致空置房屋数量飙升。
根据日本总务省(Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications)在今年4月30日公布的数据,该国的空置房屋已经达到899万套。这一数字比2018年的上一次调查增加了50万,比20年前激增了80%。
这也意味着日本目前有创纪录的13.8%的房屋空置,在一些人口下降较快的农村地区,这一比例超过了20%。
这一数字包括第二套住房和因为居民在其他地方临时工作等原因而空置的住房。但废弃房屋的数量也在跃升,比2018年的调查增加了36万套,达到目前的385万套,占所有房屋的5.9%。
无独有偶,美国人口调查局(U.S. Census Bureau)也在4月30日发布了类似的数据,报告称第一季度租赁住房的空置率为6.6%,自有住房的空置率为0.8%。这些数据与一年前相比变化甚微。
日本的空置率与野村综合研究所(Nomura Research Institute)早些时候的一份报告一致,该研究所曾经在2017年预测,如果不采取任何措施,到2033年日本房屋空置率可能就会超过30.4%。
该机构警告称:“三分之一的房屋空置意味着,平均每户人家隔壁都有一栋房屋空置。”
想象一下,一排三栋房子,中间一栋空置,这意味着另外两栋有人居住的房屋挨着一栋空置房屋。
野村综合研究所补充道:“无人居住的房屋会成为垃圾堆放点,容易倒塌,并吸引可疑人员。从安全和防灾的角度来看,30%的房屋空置肯定是不可取的。”
野村综合研究所指出,最佳解决办法是增加日本人口,或者至少阻止人口减少,但该研究所也承认这很困难,需要很长时间才能够实现目标。日本人口多年来一直在下降,2022年的最新统计显示,日本人口比上一年减少了80多万,降至1.254亿。与此同时,出生率创历史新低,儿童数量已经连续43年下降。
其他方案包括拆除空置房屋、限制新建房屋,以及将其改建为非住宅物业。日本政府曾经试图通过允许地方政府在房屋没有得到改善的情况下拆除面临倒塌风险的房屋,或者向管理不善的业主发出警告来解决这一问题。但据《日本经济新闻》(Nikkei)报道,这些努力收效甚微。
专家告诉美国有线电视新闻网(CNN),税收政策也让一些房屋空置比拆除更为划算,而其他房产则因为记录混乱导致所有权不明而陷入繁琐程序。
许多外国人认为日本的房地产市场上有特价房,但高昂的翻新成本和语言障碍可能会阻碍许多房屋以这种方式出售。
位于日本千叶的神田外语大学(Kanda University of International Studies)的讲师杰弗里·霍尔对美国有线电视新闻网表示:“事实上,这些房屋大多不会出售给外国人,或者说,对于那些不会说日语、也无法读懂日语的人而言,完成大量的行政工作和理解背后的规则并不容易。他们不可能以低价买入这些房屋。”(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
While the U.S. housing market has suffered from a lack of supply in recent years, the opposite is the case in Japan, where a shrinking population has sent the number of empty homes soaring.
Vacancies in that country have hit 8.99 million, according to data released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications on April 30. That’s an increase of 500,0000 from the prior survey in 2018 and an 80% surge from 20 years ago.
It also means a record 13.8% of homes in Japan are now vacant, with the share topping 20% in some rural areas where populations are falling faster.
That number includes second homes and others that are vacant for reasons that include the resident working temporarily elsewhere. But the number of abandoned homes also jumped, rising by 360,000 from the 2018 survey to 3.85 million today, or 5.9% of all homes.
Coincidentally, the U.S. Census Bureau also released similar data on April 30, and it reported that vacancy rates in the first quarter were 6.6% for rental housing and 0.8% for homeowner housing. Those were little changed from a year ago.
The vacancy rates from Japan are in line with an earlier report from the Nomura Research Institute, which predicted in 2017 that the vacancy rate could exceed 30.4% by 2033 if nothing is done about it.
“Having a third of houses vacant means that on average, each home would have a vacant house next door,” it warned.
So imagine three houses in a row with a vacant one in the middle, meaning the other two that are occupied are next to an empty house.
“Unoccupied houses become sites for trash dumping, are susceptible to collapse, and attract suspicious persons,” Nomura added. “Having 30% of houses vacant is certainly not desirable from the perspective of safety and disaster prevention.”
The best solution would be to increase Japan’s population or at least halt its decline, it said, while acknowledging that would be difficult and take a long time. The population has been in decline for years, and the most recent count in 2022 showed it shrank by more than 800,000 from the prior year to 125.4 million. Meanwhile, the birth rate has hit record lows, and the number of children has fallen for 43 consecutive years.
Other options include removing vacant homes, limiting the construction of new ones, and converting them to non-residential properties. The government has tried to tackle the problem by allowing local authorities to demolish homes at risk of collapse if improvements aren’t made or issue warnings to owners of mismanaged properties. But those efforts have seen limited success, according to Nikkei.
Tax policies also make it cheaper to keep some homes empty than to demolish them, and other properties are stuck in red tape when record-keeping snafus obscure ownership, experts told CNN.
Many foreigners see bargains to be had in Japan’s housing market, but the high costs of renovation and language barriers will likely prevent many from being sold that way.
“The truth is most of these homes are not going to be sold to foreigners, or that the amount of administrative work and the rules behind it [are] not something easy for somebody who doesn’t speak Japanese and read Japanese very well,” Jeffrey Hall, a lecturer at Kanda University of International Studies in Chiba, told CNN. “They’re not going to be able to get these houses for cheap.”