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美国楼市持续不景气,但未来几个月会有所改善

ALENA BOTROS
2024-05-28

房地产市场将在下半年有所改善。

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2018年,Redfin首席执行官格伦·凯尔曼。图片来源:DAVID RYDER/BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY IMAGES

如果你觉得房价不断创下新高,那是因为确实如此。根据Redfin的数据,在截至5月19日的四周内,房价中位数达到了“创纪录的387,600美元”,比去年同期上涨了4%。

但抵押贷款利率却在下降。目前,30年期固定利率抵押贷款的每周平均利率为6.94%。这是一个多月以来首次跌破7%;就在几周前,抵押贷款利率升至7.22%,创五个月新高。不过,根据Redfin的数据,每月住房付款中位数(在房地美公布最新的抵押贷款利率之前)为2,854美元,“距离4月份的历史最高点还差20美元”。至少没有超过4月份的历史最高点,不是吗?

尽管如此,Redfin首席执行官格伦•凯尔曼对2024年下半年的房地产市场仍持乐观态度。他23日在接受CNBC采访时说:“我们认为,房地产市场将在下半年有所改善。”他说,最近一次通胀数据表现良好,而且当时我们离抵押贷款利率低于7%的目标越来越近了,而这意味着我们正式迈入房市的“里程碑”。

但这将取决于降息,而他表示,大多数抵押贷款利率市场已经对此进行了定价。凯尔曼说:“如果不降息,那就会出现问题,然后你会看到房地产市场增长放缓,甚至出现负增长——但是,房地产市场在2024年第一季度基本已跌至谷底,我预计今年下半年房地产市场的表现会有所好转。”有人一度认为今年会有三次降息,但随着通胀比预期更加高涨,这一理想变得不太可能实现。而美联储官员正在呼吁耐心等待首次降息时机。

凯尔曼似乎认为通胀处于较为合理的区间,抵押贷款利率市场已经稳定下来,而且需求强劲。更何况有那么多想买房的人迟迟不买,他们不想再这样了。

房租也很重要。凯尔曼说,房租是通胀的主要组成部分,也是抵押贷款利率没有进一步下降的原因。他解释说:“在某种程度上,房地产市场正处于艰难的螺旋上升期,房价和房租推动通胀,而通胀又推动抵押贷款利率上升,这使得市场处于锁定状态。”

去年,现房销售跌至近三十年来的最低点,这在很大程度上是由于锁定效应造成的,即房主因担心失去低于市场水平的抵押贷款利率而拒绝卖房。今年4月,月度和年度销售量下降了近2%,这可能是因为一些人仍想买房,但经济承受能力却已经下降。本月早些时候,凯尔曼在接受采访时说:“今年将有400万人搬家;这是我们多年来看到的最低数字,而这只是因为利率一直居高不下。”

一些大都市的房租正在回落,因此他预计未来通胀率也会受此影响(阳光地带的房租降幅居全国之首)。不管怎样,他认为房租都不会“一飞冲天”,因为去年和今年,市场上出现了大量多户住宅供应。不过,根据Redfin的数据,从全国来看,上个月的房租要价上涨了1%,这是一年来的首次上涨。

不过,尽管凯尔曼持乐观态度,但他还不打算“开派对、喝香槟庆祝,”他说。“只是好了一点点,好了一点点——但这值得我们关注。”(财富中文网)

翻译:郝秀

审校:汪皓

如果你觉得房价不断创下新高,那是因为确实如此。根据Redfin的数据,在截至5月19日的四周内,房价中位数达到了“创纪录的387,600美元”,比去年同期上涨了4%。

但抵押贷款利率却在下降。目前,30年期固定利率抵押贷款的每周平均利率为6.94%。这是一个多月以来首次跌破7%;就在几周前,抵押贷款利率升至7.22%,创五个月新高。不过,根据Redfin的数据,每月住房付款中位数(在房地美公布最新的抵押贷款利率之前)为2,854美元,“距离4月份的历史最高点还差20美元”。至少没有超过4月份的历史最高点,不是吗?

尽管如此,Redfin首席执行官格伦•凯尔曼对2024年下半年的房地产市场仍持乐观态度。他23日在接受CNBC采访时说:“我们认为,房地产市场将在下半年有所改善。”他说,最近一次通胀数据表现良好,而且当时我们离抵押贷款利率低于7%的目标越来越近了,而这意味着我们正式迈入房市的“里程碑”。

但这将取决于降息,而他表示,大多数抵押贷款利率市场已经对此进行了定价。凯尔曼说:“如果不降息,那就会出现问题,然后你会看到房地产市场增长放缓,甚至出现负增长——但是,房地产市场在2024年第一季度基本已跌至谷底,我预计今年下半年房地产市场的表现会有所好转。”有人一度认为今年会有三次降息,但随着通胀比预期更加高涨,这一理想变得不太可能实现。而美联储官员正在呼吁耐心等待首次降息时机。

凯尔曼似乎认为通胀处于较为合理的区间,抵押贷款利率市场已经稳定下来,而且需求强劲。更何况有那么多想买房的人迟迟不买,他们不想再这样了。

房租也很重要。凯尔曼说,房租是通胀的主要组成部分,也是抵押贷款利率没有进一步下降的原因。他解释说:“在某种程度上,房地产市场正处于艰难的螺旋上升期,房价和房租推动通胀,而通胀又推动抵押贷款利率上升,这使得市场处于锁定状态。”

去年,现房销售跌至近三十年来的最低点,这在很大程度上是由于锁定效应造成的,即房主因担心失去低于市场水平的抵押贷款利率而拒绝卖房。今年4月,月度和年度销售量下降了近2%,这可能是因为一些人仍想买房,但经济承受能力却已经下降。本月早些时候,凯尔曼在接受采访时说:“今年将有400万人搬家;这是我们多年来看到的最低数字,而这只是因为利率一直居高不下。”

一些大都市的房租正在回落,因此他预计未来通胀率也会受此影响(阳光地带的房租降幅居全国之首)。不管怎样,他认为房租都不会“一飞冲天”,因为去年和今年,市场上出现了大量多户住宅供应。不过,根据Redfin的数据,从全国来看,上个月的房租要价上涨了1%,这是一年来的首次上涨。

不过,尽管凯尔曼持乐观态度,但他还不打算“开派对、喝香槟庆祝,”他说。“只是好了一点点,好了一点点——但这值得我们关注。”(财富中文网)

翻译:郝秀

审校:汪皓

If you feel like home prices keep hitting record highs, it’s because they are. In the four weeks ending May 19, the median home price reached “a record $387,600,” according to Redfin; that’s up 4% from the prior year.

But mortgage rates are falling. The weekly average 30-year fixed rate is now 6.94%. It’s the first time it has fallen below 7% in more than a month; just a few weeks earlier, mortgage rates hit a five-month high of 7.22%. Still, the median monthly housing payment (prior to the latest Freddie Mac mortgage rate reading) is $2,854, which is about $20 “shy of April’s all-time high,” per Redfin. At least it’s not above April’s all-time high, right?

Still, Redfin’s chief executive, Glenn Kelman, is optimistic about the latter half of 2024 “We think the housing market is going to improve over the next half of the year,” he said in an interview with CNBC yesterday. The last inflation reading came in nicely, Kelman said, and at the time we were getting closer to mortgage rates below 7%, which is a housing world “milestone” that we’ve officially hit.

But that would be dependent on an interest rate cut, which he said most of the mortgage rate market has already priced in. “If there weren’t a rate cut, that would be a problem, and then you’d see slower growth, or even negative growth, in the housing market—but mostly we hit rock bottom in the first quarter of 2024, and I would expect the housing market to do a little bit better through the rest of the year,” Kelman said. At one point, some were pricing in three interest rate cuts this year, but as inflation proved to be more stubborn than expected, that ideal became less likely. And Fed officials are pushing for patience for that first interest rate cut.

Kelman seems to think inflation is in a more reasonable spot, that the mortgage rate market has settled, and demand is strong. Not to mention so many would-be homebuyers have held off on buying, and they don’t want to anymore.

Rents matter too. They’re a major component of inflation, and the reason mortgage rates haven’t come down further, Kelman said. “The housing market is in some kind of difficult spiral right now, where home prices and rents are driving inflation and that drives mortgage rates, and that keeps the market kind of locked up,” he explained.

Last year, existing home sales fell to their lowest point in almost three decades, largely due to the lock-in effect, which refers to homeowners who refuse to sell their homes for fear of losing their below-market mortgage rates. In April this year, they fell close to 2% on a monthly and annual basis, probably because some people are still holding on to their homes, and affordability has deteriorated. In an interview earlier this month, Kelman said: “Four million people are going to move this year; that is the lowest number that we’ve seen in many, many years, and it’s just because interest rates have been so persistently high.”

And rents are cooling in some metropolitan areas, so he does expect that to filter into future inflation readings (the Sunbelt is seeing some of the largest rent declines in the country). Either way, he doesn’t see rents “shooting through the roof,” because of how much multifamily supply has come onto the market last year and this year. Still, on a national level, asking rents rose 1% last month, which was the first increase in a year, per Redfin.

However, despite his optimism, he’s not ready to “have a party here and drink a bunch of champagne,” Kelman said. “It’s just a little bit better, it’s a little bit better—and that’s worth noting.”

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