美国经济谘商会(Conference Board)的月度报告显示,美国消费者对经济的信心三个月来首次上升。有两个相互矛盾的群体的信心水平最高:一个群体不容易受到经济焦虑的影响,而另一个群体则往往是经济焦虑的典型代表。
根据半年平均值,年收入超过10万美元的富裕人士和35岁以下的年轻人的消费者信心最高。美国经济谘商会高级经济学家斯蒂芬妮·吉夏尔对《财富》杂志表示,富裕家庭信心增强可归因于股市繁荣。而对于年轻人而言,鉴于最近几个月全美各地的消费者对经济持负面看法,因此在经济咨商会的调查中年轻人普遍较高的消费者信心水平显得更加重要。
即使在经济谘商会周二的报告中整体消费者信心有所回升,但仍处于2021年以来的最低水平。然而,从许多指标来看,美国经济状况良好,肯定好于2021年至2022年疫情引发的经济低迷时期。通胀率比2022年6月的高点有所回落。当美联储采取措施降低通胀时,失业率并没有像往常一样飙升。在就业市场上,工资水平仍然相对较高。
消费者可能会承认现在的情况比疫情期间有所好转,但他们仍然难以看到困扰他们日常生活的生活成本问题得到有效改善。通胀率有所下降,但还没有恢复到可控的水平,因为食品杂货店的价格仍然让顾客大跌眼镜。抵押贷款利率高得令人望而却步,上个月达到了7%,使许多人无法拥有自己的住房。
吉夏尔认为,富人信心增强可归因于股市。吉夏尔表示:“4月份股市下跌,我们看到高收入人群的信心也随之下降。本月股市反弹,这个群体的消费者信心强劲反弹。”
较富裕群体往往有更多资金被捆绑在市场化投资和金融工具上,这意味着股票价格的任何变化都会对他们的个人财务状况产生重大影响。今年年初的一份报告发现,美国前10%的家庭拥有93%的股票和共同基金。
如果说富裕阶层信心增长的原因是显而易见的,那么年轻人信心增长的原因仍是个谜。吉夏尔提供的数据显示,自2023年5月以来,年轻消费者的信心持续增长。吉夏尔在接受采访时表示,除了“非常罕见的情况”外,自1996年以来情况一直如此。
但这些发现似乎与其他研究的结果背道而驰。咨询公司德勤(Deloitte)的一份报告发现,Z世代和千禧一代最关心的问题是当前的生活成本。这两个群体对于这一问题或其他任何经济挑战的改善都缺乏信心。根据德勤的调查,只有32%的Z世代和31%的千禧一代表示他们预计“整体经济形势会有所好转”。面对如此严重的经济不确定性,一些千禧一代感到沮丧。即使是能够更冷静地面对当前经济状况的人,也会觉得靠辛苦工作就能换来安居乐业的“美国梦”,只是一个虚假的承诺。
吉夏尔认为,尚不清楚35岁以下的一些人对经济有信心的确切原因。其他研究指出了一些可能性。有一种解释是,当千禧一代得到父母经济上的帮助时,他们往往对自己的财务状况感觉更好。千禧一代还将从财富大转移中受益,他们的婴儿潮一代父母将为他们留下数目可观的遗产。这两种情况都会让年轻人立即获得大量现金,但这并不是一种可复制的经济趋势。
另一个原因是就业市场依然强劲。失业率仅为3.9%,而且多年来,招聘岗位的数量一直多于可填补这些岗位的人数。这一切意味着,尽管年轻上班族还处于职业发展的初期,但他们也能感觉自己在职业上取得了些许进步。吉夏尔表示,如果有关就业市场的任何乐观数据出现变化,年轻人可能就会开始对经济感到不满。
一些经济学家预测,这种情况将在今年晚些时候发生,可能会让看似永远自信满满的年轻消费者都感到失望。(财富中文网)
翻译:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
美国经济谘商会的最新数据显示,年轻人和年收入超过10万美元的群体对经济高度乐观,提振了消费者信心。ALEKSANDAR NAKIC
美国经济谘商会(Conference Board)的月度报告显示,美国消费者对经济的信心三个月来首次上升。有两个相互矛盾的群体的信心水平最高:一个群体不容易受到经济焦虑的影响,而另一个群体则往往是经济焦虑的典型代表。
根据半年平均值,年收入超过10万美元的富裕人士和35岁以下的年轻人的消费者信心最高。美国经济谘商会高级经济学家斯蒂芬妮·吉夏尔对《财富》杂志表示,富裕家庭信心增强可归因于股市繁荣。而对于年轻人而言,鉴于最近几个月全美各地的消费者对经济持负面看法,因此在经济咨商会的调查中年轻人普遍较高的消费者信心水平显得更加重要。
即使在经济谘商会周二的报告中整体消费者信心有所回升,但仍处于2021年以来的最低水平。然而,从许多指标来看,美国经济状况良好,肯定好于2021年至2022年疫情引发的经济低迷时期。通胀率比2022年6月的高点有所回落。当美联储采取措施降低通胀时,失业率并没有像往常一样飙升。在就业市场上,工资水平仍然相对较高。
消费者可能会承认现在的情况比疫情期间有所好转,但他们仍然难以看到困扰他们日常生活的生活成本问题得到有效改善。通胀率有所下降,但还没有恢复到可控的水平,因为食品杂货店的价格仍然让顾客大跌眼镜。抵押贷款利率高得令人望而却步,上个月达到了7%,使许多人无法拥有自己的住房。
吉夏尔认为,富人信心增强可归因于股市。吉夏尔表示:“4月份股市下跌,我们看到高收入人群的信心也随之下降。本月股市反弹,这个群体的消费者信心强劲反弹。”
较富裕群体往往有更多资金被捆绑在市场化投资和金融工具上,这意味着股票价格的任何变化都会对他们的个人财务状况产生重大影响。今年年初的一份报告发现,美国前10%的家庭拥有93%的股票和共同基金。
如果说富裕阶层信心增长的原因是显而易见的,那么年轻人信心增长的原因仍是个谜。吉夏尔提供的数据显示,自2023年5月以来,年轻消费者的信心持续增长。吉夏尔在接受采访时表示,除了“非常罕见的情况”外,自1996年以来情况一直如此。
但这些发现似乎与其他研究的结果背道而驰。咨询公司德勤(Deloitte)的一份报告发现,Z世代和千禧一代最关心的问题是当前的生活成本。这两个群体对于这一问题或其他任何经济挑战的改善都缺乏信心。根据德勤的调查,只有32%的Z世代和31%的千禧一代表示他们预计“整体经济形势会有所好转”。面对如此严重的经济不确定性,一些千禧一代感到沮丧。即使是能够更冷静地面对当前经济状况的人,也会觉得靠辛苦工作就能换来安居乐业的“美国梦”,只是一个虚假的承诺。
吉夏尔认为,尚不清楚35岁以下的一些人对经济有信心的确切原因。其他研究指出了一些可能性。有一种解释是,当千禧一代得到父母经济上的帮助时,他们往往对自己的财务状况感觉更好。千禧一代还将从财富大转移中受益,他们的婴儿潮一代父母将为他们留下数目可观的遗产。这两种情况都会让年轻人立即获得大量现金,但这并不是一种可复制的经济趋势。
另一个原因是就业市场依然强劲。失业率仅为3.9%,而且多年来,招聘岗位的数量一直多于可填补这些岗位的人数。这一切意味着,尽管年轻上班族还处于职业发展的初期,但他们也能感觉自己在职业上取得了些许进步。吉夏尔表示,如果有关就业市场的任何乐观数据出现变化,年轻人可能就会开始对经济感到不满。
一些经济学家预测,这种情况将在今年晚些时候发生,可能会让看似永远自信满满的年轻消费者都感到失望。(财富中文网)
翻译:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
For the first time in three months, consumer confidence in the economy rose, according to the Conference Board’s monthly report. Two paradoxical groups emerged with the highest levels of confidence: One that’s prone to being insulated from economic anxieties. And a second that is often the poster child for them.
Both wealthy individuals making more than $100,000 a year, and young people, defined as those under the age of 35, had the highest degrees of consumer confidence, according to the six-month average. The increase in confidence for wealthier households can be explained by a booming stock market, Conference Board senior economist Stephanie Guichard told Fortune. While for young people the high levels of consumer confidence are common in the Conference Board’s survey have taken on renewed importance given that in recent months consumers across the country have had a largely negative view of the economy lately.
Even after the Conference Board’s uptick in Tuesday’s report, overall consumer confidence is at some of the lowest levels since 2021. And yet, by many metrics the economy is in good condition—certainly better than it was during the pandemic-induced slump of 2021 to 2022. Inflation has come down since the highs of June 2022. The unemployment rate didn’t soar as is customary when the Federal Reserve takes measures to lower inflation. And within the job market, wages are still relatively high.
Consumers might acknowledge things are better than they were during the pandemic, but they still struggle to see meaningful progress on the cost-of-living struggles that plague their everyday lives. Inflation has come down, but isn’t back to manageable levels, as grocery store prices still induce sticker shock for customers. Mortgage rates have become prohibitively high—reaching 7% last month — putting homeownership out of reach for many.
Rising confidence for the wealthy can be attributed to the stock market, according to Guichard. “In April the stock market went down, and we saw high income confidence going down,” Guichard said. “This month the stock market rebounded, and we saw strong rebounding consumer confidence.”
Wealthier people often have more money tied up in market-based investments and instruments, meaning that any change to equity prices can have a major effect on their personal finances. Early this year a report found that the top 10% of households owned 93% of stocks and mutual funds.
If the explanation for why the confidence levels of the affluent grew was clearly identifiable, the reason why young people did remains a mystery. Data provided by Guichard shows that’s been the case since May 2023. And in an interview Guichard said that except for “very rare occasions” that’s been the case since 1996.
But those findings seem to fly in the face of other research. A report from consulting firm Deloitte found the top concerns for both Gen Z and millennials was the current cost of living. Both cohorts had little confidence that or any other economic challenge would improve. Only 32% of Gen Z said they expected the “overall economic situation will improve,” while 31% of millennials said the same, according to Deloitte’s research. Some millennials faced such deep levels of economic uncertainty it was making them depressed. Even those who handled the situation with a cooler head were left feeling like the American Dream—hard work paying off with a life of financial security—had been a false promise.
For Guichard, the exact reason for why some of those under 35 are so confident in the economy is unclear. Other research points to some possibilities. One explanation is that millennials tend to feel better about their finances when they get financial help from their parents. Millennials also stand to benefit from the great wealth transfer, where their boomer parents will leave them sizable inheritances. Both of those would give young people an immediate influx of cash, but that’s hardly a replicable economic trend.
Another explanation is that the job market remains strong. The unemployment rate is just 3.9% and there’s been more open jobs than workers to fill them for years now. All that means even young workers, at the early stages of their careers, feel like they’re able to have some modicum of professional advancement. If any of the promising data points about the job market were to sour then young people might start to sour on the economy, Guichard says.
Based on some economists project that will happen later this year, which could disappoint even the seemingly perpetually confident young consumers.