如今情况发生了变化。对于政府、企业和家庭来说,希望新活力不会昙花一现。
但各国也必须确保经济强劲增长的好处能够惠及经济的各个领域,并提高人民生活水平。欧盟统计局(Eurostat)的数据显示,葡萄牙和希腊的最低工资标准都低于每月1000欧元。
如果不能解决这一问题,可能会激起选民的不满情绪,而这种不满情绪已经在欧洲大部分地区凸显出来。
在最近的欧洲议会选举中,民粹主义和极右翼政党在德国、法国和意大利这三个最大的经济体中取得了胜利。如果这导致政治和政策出现更广泛的不确定性,就会对该地区的稳定性构成威胁,而稳定性正是投资者和企业需要看到的。
在西班牙,极右翼呼声运动党(Vox)席位大增,而葡萄牙的极右翼的够了党(Chega)在今年早些时候的全国大选中表现出色,也取得了进展。
南欧经济增长部分是由旅游业和疫情后游客激增推动的,但这并不是唯一因素。长达数年的清理行动也为这些经济体奠定了更坚实的基础。
希腊经济及工业研究基金会(Foundation for Economic and Industrial Research)的总干事尼克斯·维塔斯(Nikos Vettas)说:“希腊和其他南欧国家的不确定性如今已经消失了。这意味着还有很多工作要完成。然而,不确定性消失是最重要的因素,因为在过去,不确定性会赶走资本和劳动力。”
例如,希腊在长达十年的危机中损失了四分之一的产出,债务负担飙升。
但去年该国重新获得了投资评级,其债务占国内生产总值的比率降至十多年来的最低点。上个月,标普全球评级(S&P Global Ratings)下调了法国的评级,这表明投资风向发生了转变。
葡萄牙的债务比率在膨胀到不可持续的水平后,近年来也一直在下降(不包括疫情带来的影响)。
“当我来到葡萄牙时,这里百废待兴。”时装设计师安娜·佩尼亚·科斯塔(Ana Penha e Costa)说,她在里约热内卢的一家服装店工作后,于2014年从巴西返回葡萄牙。
尽管当时葡萄牙正从严重的经济衰退中复苏,并努力降低创纪录的失业率,但她还是决定建立自己的在线服装业务。两年后,佩尼亚·科斯塔在里斯本市中心开设了第一家实体店。
时年36岁的她说道:“现在我们80%的客户都是外国人。我们的生意非常好。”
在希腊,Moschos Olives正在扩大规模,因为其现有设施已达到最大产能。为了实现绿色生产,该公司已向欧盟后疫情时代的复苏和恢复基金 (RRF)提出申请,从今年夏天开始安装太阳能电池板,并将叉车更换为电动车型。
财政状况仍然存在风险,但过去十年的努力正在取得成效。尽管欧洲央行缩减了曾经是重要生命线的债券购买计划,但债券息差仍大体保持在可控范围内。
十年前主导债券市场的投资者担忧情绪已逐渐消失。
意大利仍然是这个故事中的异类,这个规模较大的经济体仍落后于南欧邻国,在财政方面取得的进展也更少。
罗马路易斯大学(Luiss university)应用经济学教授瓦伦蒂娜·梅利西亚(Valentina Meliciani)说:“对于意大利、希腊、西班牙和葡萄牙这四个国家来说,有些事情确实发生了,比如金融稳定感恢复,债券息差实现稳定。但在经济增长方面,还是存在一些差异。意大利一直无法稳定债务水平。”
虽然大众旅游业和廉价制造业仍然是南欧经济的重要组成部分,但南欧国家也在向生物技术服务等高价值领域进军。这反映出人们意识到,坐以待毙于事无补。
多年来,莫妮卡·萨达(Monica Sada)一直在纽约为富有的拉丁美洲人提供咨询,指导他们如何在摩根大通(JPMorgan)和德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)投资。她饱受皮肤问题的折磨,对现有的治疗方案感到沮丧,于是她回到西班牙创办了自己的公司。
这家名为Unicskin的美容公司向中东和其他地区的富有客户销售护肤霜和LED面膜等科技产品。
据该公司称,公司收入每年翻一番,其中大部分销售额来自出口。
萨达的经营之道是西班牙、希腊和葡萄牙希望塑造的形象的缩影。
萨达说:“我在银行工作的岁月教会了我纪律,而在纽约的生活则开拓了我的思路。在管理公司方面,我谨慎行事,以稳定增长和实现盈利为目标。”(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
如今情况发生了变化。对于政府、企业和家庭来说,希望新活力不会昙花一现。
但各国也必须确保经济强劲增长的好处能够惠及经济的各个领域,并提高人民生活水平。欧盟统计局(Eurostat)的数据显示,葡萄牙和希腊的最低工资标准都低于每月1000欧元。
如果不能解决这一问题,可能会激起选民的不满情绪,而这种不满情绪已经在欧洲大部分地区凸显出来。
在最近的欧洲议会选举中,民粹主义和极右翼政党在德国、法国和意大利这三个最大的经济体中取得了胜利。如果这导致政治和政策出现更广泛的不确定性,就会对该地区的稳定性构成威胁,而稳定性正是投资者和企业需要看到的。
在西班牙,极右翼呼声运动党(Vox)席位大增,而葡萄牙的极右翼的够了党(Chega)在今年早些时候的全国大选中表现出色,也取得了进展。
南欧经济增长部分是由旅游业和疫情后游客激增推动的,但这并不是唯一因素。长达数年的清理行动也为这些经济体奠定了更坚实的基础。
希腊经济及工业研究基金会(Foundation for Economic and Industrial Research)的总干事尼克斯·维塔斯(Nikos Vettas)说:“希腊和其他南欧国家的不确定性如今已经消失了。这意味着还有很多工作要完成。然而,不确定性消失是最重要的因素,因为在过去,不确定性会赶走资本和劳动力。”
例如,希腊在长达十年的危机中损失了四分之一的产出,债务负担飙升。
但去年该国重新获得了投资评级,其债务占国内生产总值的比率降至十多年来的最低点。上个月,标普全球评级(S&P Global Ratings)下调了法国的评级,这表明投资风向发生了转变。
葡萄牙的债务比率在膨胀到不可持续的水平后,近年来也一直在下降(不包括疫情带来的影响)。
“当我来到葡萄牙时,这里百废待兴。”时装设计师安娜·佩尼亚·科斯塔(Ana Penha e Costa)说,她在里约热内卢的一家服装店工作后,于2014年从巴西返回葡萄牙。
尽管当时葡萄牙正从严重的经济衰退中复苏,并努力降低创纪录的失业率,但她还是决定建立自己的在线服装业务。两年后,佩尼亚·科斯塔在里斯本市中心开设了第一家实体店。
时年36岁的她说道:“现在我们80%的客户都是外国人。我们的生意非常好。”
在希腊,Moschos Olives正在扩大规模,因为其现有设施已达到最大产能。为了实现绿色生产,该公司已向欧盟后疫情时代的复苏和恢复基金 (RRF)提出申请,从今年夏天开始安装太阳能电池板,并将叉车更换为电动车型。
财政状况仍然存在风险,但过去十年的努力正在取得成效。尽管欧洲央行缩减了曾经是重要生命线的债券购买计划,但债券息差仍大体保持在可控范围内。
十年前主导债券市场的投资者担忧情绪已逐渐消失。
意大利仍然是这个故事中的异类,这个规模较大的经济体仍落后于南欧邻国,在财政方面取得的进展也更少。
罗马路易斯大学(Luiss university)应用经济学教授瓦伦蒂娜·梅利西亚(Valentina Meliciani)说:“对于意大利、希腊、西班牙和葡萄牙这四个国家来说,有些事情确实发生了,比如金融稳定感恢复,债券息差实现稳定。但在经济增长方面,还是存在一些差异。意大利一直无法稳定债务水平。”
虽然大众旅游业和廉价制造业仍然是南欧经济的重要组成部分,但南欧国家也在向生物技术服务等高价值领域进军。这反映出人们意识到,坐以待毙于事无补。
多年来,莫妮卡·萨达(Monica Sada)一直在纽约为富有的拉丁美洲人提供咨询,指导他们如何在摩根大通(JPMorgan)和德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)投资。她饱受皮肤问题的折磨,对现有的治疗方案感到沮丧,于是她回到西班牙创办了自己的公司。
这家名为Unicskin的美容公司向中东和其他地区的富有客户销售护肤霜和LED面膜等科技产品。
据该公司称,公司收入每年翻一番,其中大部分销售额来自出口。
萨达的经营之道是西班牙、希腊和葡萄牙希望塑造的形象的缩影。
萨达说:“我在银行工作的岁月教会了我纪律,而在纽约的生活则开拓了我的思路。在管理公司方面,我谨慎行事,以稳定增长和实现盈利为目标。”(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
Things have changed now. For governments, as well as businesses and households, the hope is that the new dynamism doesn’t prove to be a flash in the pan.
But they must also ensure the benefits of stronger growth reach all corners of the economy and boost living standards. Both Portugal and Greece have a minimum wage that’s less than €1,000 a month, Eurostat figures show.
Failure to address that could foment the type of voter discontent that’s already on display in large parts of Europe.
In the latest European Parliament elections, there were gains for populist and far right parties in Germany, France and Italy — the three largest economies. If that leads to broader uncertainty about politics and policies, that’s a threat to the stability investors and businesses need to see in the region.
In Spain, the far-right VOX added seats, while Portugal’s Chega also made gains after its strong showing in national elections earlier this year.
The economic growth across Southern Europe is partly driven by tourism and a post-pandemic surge in visitors, but it’s not the only factor. A years long cleanup operation has also put these economies on a more solid footing.
“The uncertainty for Greece and the rest of the Southern countries is now gone,” said Nikos Vettas, director general of the Foundation for Economic and Industrial Research in Athens. “This does not mean that there is not much still to be done. The absence of uncertainty, however, is the most important factor as in the past it was driving away capital and labor.”
Greece, for example, lost a quarter of its output during a decade-long crisis, and its debt burden soared.
But last year the country regained its investment grade and its debt-to-GDP ratio fell to the lowest in more than a decade. In a sign of how directions have shifted, France was downgraded by S&P Global Ratings last month.
Portugal’s debt ratio has also been on a downward trajectory in recent years, excluding the pandemic impact, after it had ballooned to unsustainable levels.
“When I arrived in Portugal there was nothing going on,” said fashion designer Ana Penha e Costa, who returned from Brazil in 2014 after working for a clothing store in Rio de Janeiro.
Despite the fact that Portugal was recovering from a deep recession and struggling to bring down record unemployment, she decided to set up her own online clothing business. Two years later, Penha e Costa opened her first physical store in the center of Lisbon.
“Today 80% of our clients are foreigners,” said the 36-year-old. “We’re doing very well.”
In Greece, Moschos Olives is expanding as its current facility is at maximum capacity. It’s applied to a post-pandemic EU fund, known as RRF, in order to turn green, installing solar panels and replacing forklifts with electric models starting this summer.
Fiscal positions are also still a risk, but the work over the past decade is paying off. Even as the European Central Bank scaled back its bond-buying programs, once a huge lifeline, spreads on bonds stayed broadly in check.
The investor worries that dominated the bond market a decade ago have faded away.
Italy remains an outlier in this story, a larger economy that’s lagging behind its Southern European neighbors and which has made less fiscal progress.
“For the four — Italy, Greece, Spain, Portugal — there are certain things that are true, such as a renewed sense of financial stability and the stabilization of bond spreads,” said Valentina Meliciani, a professor of applied economics at Luiss university in Rome. “But when it comes to economic growth, there are some differences. Italy has not been able to stabilize its debt.”
While mass tourism and cheaper manufacturing are still a large part of Southern Europe’s economies, there’s also a drive to push into higher-value areas, such as biotech services. It reflects a realization that there’s no benefit to sitting still.
Monica Sada had been advising wealthy Latin Americans in New York for a number of years on how to invest their money with JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank. Suffering with skin problems, and frustrated with the treatments available, she returned to Spain to set up her own business.
The beauty company, Unicskin, sells skincare creams and tech devices such as an LED face mask to wealthy clients in the Middle East and elsewhere.
Revenue has been doubling annually, with exports making up the bulk of sales, according to the company.
Sada’s approach to her business is a microcosm of the image that Spain, along with Greece and Portugal, want to project.
“The years I worked in banking taught me discipline, and living in New York opened my mind,” Sada said. “I manage my company prudently, with the goal of growing steadily and in a very profitable way.”