最近的一项研究表明,有难以负担的住房市场,也有“高不可攀”的住房市场,其中四个位于加州。
加州查普曼大学(Chapman University)和加拿大前沿公共政策中心(Frontier Center for Public Policy)联合发布的年度《Demographia国际住房负担能力报告》显示,住房危机是向上流动的障碍,而加州面临着极其严重的阶层分化风险。
查普曼大学的乔尔·科特金(Joel Kotkin)写道:“相对于收入而言,高房价对我们的家乡加利福尼亚州产生了明显的封建化影响,主要受害者是年轻人、少数族裔和移民。限制性住房政策可能被包装成进步政策,但从社会角度来看,其影响可能更应被定性为倒退。”
报告指出,“城市遏制政策”旨在限制城市无序扩张和增加人口密度。报告解释说,这导致土地价格上涨,进而导致房价大幅上涨。
增加人口密度的趋势是为了减少对汽车和高速公路的依赖,改善交通堵塞,使社区更适合步行。报告称,尽管这些政策的初衷是好的,但却导致城市控制范围内的土地价格比控制范围外的土地价格高出8到20倍。
在确定可负担性时,该报告考察了澳大利亚、加拿大、中国、爱尔兰、新西兰、新加坡、英国和美国的94个市场,比较了各地的房价中位数与收入中位数。
房价收入比低于3被认为是可负担的,而房价收入比越高,就表明负担能力越差。9或以上的比率被标记为“高不可攀”。在这一类别的11个城市中,有4个位于加州。
1. 香港(16.7)
2. 悉尼(13.8)
3. 温哥华 (12.3)
4. 圣何塞 (11.9)
5. 洛杉矶 (10.9)
6. 檀香山(10.5)
7. 墨尔本 (9.8)
8. 旧金山 (9.7)
9. 阿德莱德 (9.7)
10. 圣地亚哥 (9.5)
11. 多伦多(9.3)
报告还警告称,住房危机对中产阶级的生存构成了威胁,并指出高昂的住房成本降低了生活水平,加剧了贫困。
报告称:“中产阶级被围困的主要原因是土地成本的上升。为了遏制城市扩张,土地已经实行了定量配给,供不应求的局面推高了房价。”
报告指出,所有“高不可攀”的城市都遵循有利于增加人口密度的城市规划政策,并建议各大城市开放土地供应,以降低住房成本。
在美国房地产市场,20万美元的首套房的消失体现了负担能力日益恶化。这使得许多千禧一代试图升级到改善房,以容纳不断扩大的家庭规模。
但潜在买家一直在反对高房价,导致市场上有更多待售房产,要价降低。
在关键的春季销售季,这种态势得到了印证。由于需求疲软,春季销售季正悄然结束。(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
最近的一项研究表明,有难以负担的住房市场,也有“高不可攀”的住房市场,其中四个位于加州。
加州查普曼大学(Chapman University)和加拿大前沿公共政策中心(Frontier Center for Public Policy)联合发布的年度《Demographia国际住房负担能力报告》显示,住房危机是向上流动的障碍,而加州面临着极其严重的阶层分化风险。
查普曼大学的乔尔·科特金(Joel Kotkin)写道:“相对于收入而言,高房价对我们的家乡加利福尼亚州产生了明显的封建化影响,主要受害者是年轻人、少数族裔和移民。限制性住房政策可能被包装成进步政策,但从社会角度来看,其影响可能更应被定性为倒退。”
报告指出,“城市遏制政策”旨在限制城市无序扩张和增加人口密度。报告解释说,这导致土地价格上涨,进而导致房价大幅上涨。
增加人口密度的趋势是为了减少对汽车和高速公路的依赖,改善交通堵塞,使社区更适合步行。报告称,尽管这些政策的初衷是好的,但却导致城市控制范围内的土地价格比控制范围外的土地价格高出8到20倍。
在确定可负担性时,该报告考察了澳大利亚、加拿大、中国、爱尔兰、新西兰、新加坡、英国和美国的94个市场,比较了各地的房价中位数与收入中位数。
房价收入比低于3被认为是可负担的,而房价收入比越高,就表明负担能力越差。9或以上的比率被标记为“高不可攀”。在这一类别的11个城市中,有4个位于加州。
1. 香港(16.7)
2. 悉尼(13.8)
3. 温哥华 (12.3)
4. 圣何塞 (11.9)
5. 洛杉矶 (10.9)
6. 檀香山(10.5)
7. 墨尔本 (9.8)
8. 旧金山 (9.7)
9. 阿德莱德 (9.7)
10. 圣地亚哥 (9.5)
11. 多伦多(9.3)
报告还警告称,住房危机对中产阶级的生存构成了威胁,并指出高昂的住房成本降低了生活水平,加剧了贫困。
报告称:“中产阶级被围困的主要原因是土地成本的上升。为了遏制城市扩张,土地已经实行了定量配给,供不应求的局面推高了房价。”
报告指出,所有“高不可攀”的城市都遵循有利于增加人口密度的城市规划政策,并建议各大城市开放土地供应,以降低住房成本。
在美国房地产市场,20万美元的首套房的消失体现了负担能力日益恶化。这使得许多千禧一代试图升级到改善房,以容纳不断扩大的家庭规模。
但潜在买家一直在反对高房价,导致市场上有更多待售房产,要价降低。
在关键的春季销售季,这种态势得到了印证。由于需求疲软,春季销售季正悄然结束。(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
There are unaffordable housing markets, and then there are “impossibly unaffordable” markets, four of which are in California, a recent study said.
The housing crisis represents an obstacle to upward mobility, and the Golden State risks suffering from especially acute stratification, according to the annual Demographia International Housing Affordability report, which was produced by Chapman University in California and the Frontier Center for Public Policy in Canada.
“High housing prices, relative to incomes, are having a distinctly feudalizing impact on our home state of California, where the primary victims are young people, minorities, and immigrants,” wrote Chapman’s Joel Kotkin. “Restrictive housing policies may be packaged as progressive, but in social terms their impact could be better characterized as regressive.”
The report points to “urban containment policies” that are meant to limit sprawl and increase density. Those have resulted in higher land prices, which have translated to dramatically higher home prices, it explained.
The trend toward increasing density was geared toward reducing reliance on cars and freeways, improving gridlock, and making neighborhoods more walkable. But the report said while such policies were well intentioned, they resulted in land prices being eight to 20 times higher in urban containment boundaries than outside of them.
In determining affordability, the report looked at 94 markets in Australia, Canada, China, Ireland, New Zealand, Singapore, the U.K., and the U.S., comparing the median home price in each location against the median income.
A price-to-income ratio of 3 and below was deemed affordable, with higher ratios corresponding to worsening levels of unaffordability. A ratio of 9 or above was labeled “impossibly unaffordable.” Of the 11 cities in that category, four of them are in California.
1. Hong Kong (16.7)
2. Sydney (13.8)
3. Vancouver (12.3)
4. San Jose (11.9)
5. Los Angeles (10.9)
6. Honolulu (10.5)
7. Melbourne (9.8)
8. San Francisco (9.7)
9. Adelaide (9.7)
10. San Diego (9.5)
11. Toronto (9.3)
The report also warned that the housing crisis poses an existential threat to the middle class, noting that high housing costs have reduced standards of living and increased poverty.
“The middle-class is under siege principally due to the escalation of land costs,” it said. “As land has been rationed in an effort to curb urban sprawl, the excess of demand over supply has driven prices up.”
The report pointed out that all of the “impossibly unaffordable” cities follow urban planning policies favoring more density, and recommended that cities open up the availability of land to reduce housing costs.
In the U.S. housing market, the worsening affordability problem has been exemplified by the disappearance of the $200,000 starter home. That’s left many millennials trying to upgrade to bigger homes to accommodate their growing families out in the cold.
But prospective buyers have been revolting against high home prices, resulting in more properties sitting on the market unsold and lower asking prices.
That dynamic has played out during the critical spring selling season, which is winding down with a whimper amid weak demand.