比特币暴跌，Coinbase股价两周内下跌约13%
NIAMH ROWE
2024-06-27
Coinbase股价本月下跌了9%。图片来源：CFOTO—GETTY IMAGES
尽管截至本周二午盘，加密货币交易所Coinbase的股价涨幅超过4%，至近222美元，但自6月12日收盘于255美元左右以来，该公司股价仍下跌了约13%。在同一时期，比特币价格下跌了约9%，至约6.2万美元。
等权重指数标准普尔500指数（不区分公司市值的指数）本月小幅上涨了0.27%，尽管如此，这还是凸显了Coinbase的表现落后于大盘。
然而，同样重要的是要注意到，Coinbase仍处于东山再起阶段。自去年年底以来，加密货币市场大幅反弹，由于交易收入飙升，全球第二大交易所Coinbase实现了某种程度的复兴。尽管近期股价有所下跌，但今年以来Coinbase的股价与比特币一起飙升，涨幅超过40%，原始的加密货币也取得了类似的涨幅。
当Coinbase股价下跌时，考虑到该公司很大一部分收入来自交易费，它往往反映了数字资产的大幅缩水。今年第一季度，交易占营收的67%。周一的交易量为7.883亿美元，而3月4日的交易量接近32亿美元。
彭博行业研究（Bloomberg Intelligence）的高级股票分析师保罗·古尔伯格（Paul Gulberg）告诉《财富》杂志："交易量回落了不少，价格也从第一季度的峰值有所回落。因此，[Coinbase]在第二季度的盈利能力将会下降，"。
‘大量噪音和活动’
在过去的30天里，比特币、以太币和Solana分别下跌了约11%、9%和18%，自3月中旬以来，它们都未能获得增长势头。一大关键原因是，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）1月批准的11只现货比特币交易所交易基金表现不佳。自那以来，比特币这一基础资产的价格一直在起起落落，大笔资金在这些产品中进进出出。CoinGlass的数据显示，交易所交易基金的最新一轮净流出始于6月10日，每天都在持续，只有一天例外，总计约13亿美元。这是自这些产品上市以来持续时间最长的一次资金外流。
资金外流不仅影响到Coinbase（由于该交易所与比特币的关系），而且该公司还是11只现货比特币交易所交易基金中8只的托管人，并从中收取0.2%的费用。资金外流意味着该交易所持有的比特币减少，因此产生的收入也会减少。
此外，Coinbase持有价值超过2.07亿美元的比特币，是持有比特币第六多的上市公司。自6月12日以来，持有比特币最多的公司MicroStrategy的股价下跌了约8%。
然而，古尔伯格认为，Coinbase近期股价下跌的更大因素是“情绪”，原因是该公司的许多股票都由散户交易者持有：“当数字资产领域出现大量噪音和活动时，人们就会涌入比特币和Coinbase。反之亦然：当情绪消退、活动减缓时，人们就纷纷离开Coinbase。”（财富中文网）
译者：中慧言-王芳
尽管截至本周二午盘，加密货币交易所Coinbase的股价涨幅超过4%，至近222美元，但自6月12日收盘于255美元左右以来，该公司股价仍下跌了约13%。在同一时期，比特币价格下跌了约9%，至约6.2万美元。
等权重指数标准普尔500指数（不区分公司市值的指数）本月小幅上涨了0.27%，尽管如此，这还是凸显了Coinbase的表现落后于大盘。
然而，同样重要的是要注意到，Coinbase仍处于东山再起阶段。自去年年底以来，加密货币市场大幅反弹，由于交易收入飙升，全球第二大交易所Coinbase实现了某种程度的复兴。尽管近期股价有所下跌，但今年以来Coinbase的股价与比特币一起飙升，涨幅超过40%，原始的加密货币也取得了类似的涨幅。
当Coinbase股价下跌时，考虑到该公司很大一部分收入来自交易费，它往往反映了数字资产的大幅缩水。今年第一季度，交易占营收的67%。周一的交易量为7.883亿美元，而3月4日的交易量接近32亿美元。
彭博行业研究（Bloomberg Intelligence）的高级股票分析师保罗·古尔伯格（Paul Gulberg）告诉《财富》杂志："交易量回落了不少，价格也从第一季度的峰值有所回落。因此，[Coinbase]在第二季度的盈利能力将会下降，"。
‘大量噪音和活动’
在过去的30天里，比特币、以太币和Solana分别下跌了约11%、9%和18%，自3月中旬以来，它们都未能获得增长势头。一大关键原因是，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）1月批准的11只现货比特币交易所交易基金表现不佳。自那以来，比特币这一基础资产的价格一直在起起落落，大笔资金在这些产品中进进出出。CoinGlass的数据显示，交易所交易基金的最新一轮净流出始于6月10日，每天都在持续，只有一天例外，总计约13亿美元。这是自这些产品上市以来持续时间最长的一次资金外流。
资金外流不仅影响到Coinbase（由于该交易所与比特币的关系），而且该公司还是11只现货比特币交易所交易基金中8只的托管人，并从中收取0.2%的费用。资金外流意味着该交易所持有的比特币减少，因此产生的收入也会减少。
此外，Coinbase持有价值超过2.07亿美元的比特币，是持有比特币第六多的上市公司。自6月12日以来，持有比特币最多的公司MicroStrategy的股价下跌了约8%。
然而，古尔伯格认为，Coinbase近期股价下跌的更大因素是“情绪”，原因是该公司的许多股票都由散户交易者持有：“当数字资产领域出现大量噪音和活动时，人们就会涌入比特币和Coinbase。反之亦然：当情绪消退、活动减缓时，人们就纷纷离开Coinbase。”（财富中文网）
译者：中慧言-王芳
Even with gains through midday Tuesday of better than 4%, to nearly $222, shares in the cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase are down about 13% since June 12, when they closed around $255. Over that same span, Bitcoin prices have dropped about 9% to approximately $62,000.
The equally weighted S&P 500—the version of the index that makes no distinction between the market cap of companies—has grown a modest 0.27% this month, but nonetheless it highlights how the exchange is underperforming compared with the wider market.
Yet it’s also important to note that Coinbase is still in the midst of a major comeback. The crypto market has rallied massively since the end of last year, and Coinbase, the world’s second-largest exchange, has enjoyed something of a renaissance thanks to soaring transaction revenue. Despite the recent dip in share price, Coinbase stock has skyrocketed year to date alongside Bitcoin—it’s up better than 40%, with the original cryptocurrency making similar gains.
When Coinbase stock slumps it’s often a reflection of digital assets writ large given how much of the company’s revenue comes from trading fees. In the first quarter of the year, transactions made up 67% of revenue. On Monday, trading volume was $788.3 million, whereas on March 4 it was almost $3.2 billion.
“Volume has pulled back quite a bit, and the price has come back from the peak in the first quarter somewhat. So [Coinbase] is going to get lower profitability in the second quarter,” Paul Gulberg, a senior equity analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, told Fortune.
‘A lot of noise and activity’
Over the past 30 days, Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana are down about 11%, 9%, and 18%, respectively, and each has failed to gain momentum since mid-March. A key reason is the lagging performance of the 11 spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, which the SEC approved in January. Since then, the price of the underlying asset, Bitcoin, has ebbed and flowed with large sums moving in and out of these products. The latest string of net outflows from the ETFs began on June 10, and they’ve continued every day, except for one, totaling around $1.3 billion, according to CoinGlass data. It’s the longest stretch of outflows since the products debuted.
Not only do the outflows affect Coinbase because of their ties to Bitcoin, the company is the custodian for eight of the 11 ETFs, for which it receives a 0.2% fee. Outflows mean they’re holding less Bitcoin, ergo generating less revenue.
Additionally, Coinbase holds over $207 million worth of Bitcoin, making it the public company with the sixth-largest exposure. Shares of MicroStrategy, the company that holds the most Bitcoin, are down about 8% since June 12.
However, Gulberg thinks that the bigger factor in Coinbase’s recent stock drop is “sentiment,” with so many of the firm’s shares held by retail traders: “When you get a lot of noise and activity in the digital asset space, people rush into Bitcoin and Coinbase. And vice versa: When the sentiment dies and slows down, people rush out of Coinbase.”
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