一位科技分析师预测,人工智能芯片领域的领先者英伟达(Nvidia)未来几年将面对一个尴尬的情况,那就是有太多现金,而股东将会获得回报。
Melius Research的总经理兼技术研究总监本·雷特兹近日对美国消费者新闻与商业频道(CNBC)表示,黄仁勋的英伟达已经掌握了硬件和软件的“全栈”方法,这使其在人工智能领域占据了关键优势。
他说道:“他们所做的是创建了一种计算语言和一个支持将人工智能货币化的生态系统,而且显然他们大获成功。”
雷特兹对英伟达股票设定的目标价位为160美元,这意味着比上周五的收盘价上涨30%。虽然从上月早些时候开始,英伟达股价持续下跌,但今年迄今为止其股价已经上涨了150%,而2023年全年上涨了两倍以上。他补充道,在他关注的“美股七雄”中,英伟达未来的上涨潜力最大。
雷特兹表示,英伟达相对于竞争对手的另外一大优势是,它每年都在不断创新新产品。这意味着开发者和客户将了解英伟达的发展方向,并可相应地为升级制定预算。
他说道:“英伟达就像是一辆以每小时150英里的速度行驶的汽车,而其他公司的时速只有100英里。要追上它困难重重。”
考虑到英伟达在蓬勃发展的人工智能领域的优势,Melius Research预测该公司未来三年将获得2,700亿美元现金,这可能为丰厚的股东回报奠定基础。
雷特兹表示,公司管理层可能并不急于宣扬股份回购的可能性,因为回购通常与老公司有所关联。但他认为,英伟达回购股份是显而易见的。
他说道:“没有人谈论这件事,但如果你用我们的模型来预测,你会发现英伟达将有大量现金。这些现金无处可花。美国政府不会允许他们收购任何大公司。他们也无法把这么多现金投入到研发当中。这根本不可能。因此股东将成为受益者。”
英伟达确实在向股东返还资金。去年8月,英伟达公布了250亿美元的回购计划。上个月,英伟达将季度现金股息提高了150%,从每股0.04美元提高到0.10美元,相当于分股后每股0.01美元。
英伟达拒绝评价回购更多股份的可能性。
雷特兹很快指出,未来的任何回购都不意味着英伟达已经停止增长。“当你的现金无处可花的时候,回购股份并不是耻辱。”
英伟达最近的财务业绩显示,它创造现金的速度正在加快。在截止于今年1月的财年,英伟达经营业务提供的净现金从前一财年的56亿美元暴涨至281亿美元。
在截至今年4月的第一季度,经营业务提供的净现金为153亿美元,已经超过去年净现金总额的一半。
与此同时,黄仁勋最近对投资者表示,尽管有竞争对手可能抢占英伟达市场份额的担忧,英伟达仍将是人工智能训练芯片的黄金标准。
黄仁勋在上周三举行的公司年度股东大会上表示,英伟达在今年晚些时候推出的Blackwell系统将巩固公司的领先地位。
黄仁勋说道:“Blackwell架构平台可能是公司历史上甚至计算机历史上最成功的产品。”(财富中文网)
翻译:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
一位科技分析师预测,人工智能芯片领域的领先者英伟达(Nvidia)未来几年将面对一个尴尬的情况,那就是有太多现金,而股东将会获得回报。
Melius Research的总经理兼技术研究总监本·雷特兹近日对美国消费者新闻与商业频道(CNBC)表示,黄仁勋的英伟达已经掌握了硬件和软件的“全栈”方法,这使其在人工智能领域占据了关键优势。
他说道:“他们所做的是创建了一种计算语言和一个支持将人工智能货币化的生态系统,而且显然他们大获成功。”
雷特兹对英伟达股票设定的目标价位为160美元,这意味着比上周五的收盘价上涨30%。虽然从上月早些时候开始,英伟达股价持续下跌,但今年迄今为止其股价已经上涨了150%,而2023年全年上涨了两倍以上。他补充道,在他关注的“美股七雄”中,英伟达未来的上涨潜力最大。
雷特兹表示,英伟达相对于竞争对手的另外一大优势是,它每年都在不断创新新产品。这意味着开发者和客户将了解英伟达的发展方向,并可相应地为升级制定预算。
他说道:“英伟达就像是一辆以每小时150英里的速度行驶的汽车,而其他公司的时速只有100英里。要追上它困难重重。”
考虑到英伟达在蓬勃发展的人工智能领域的优势,Melius Research预测该公司未来三年将获得2,700亿美元现金,这可能为丰厚的股东回报奠定基础。
雷特兹表示,公司管理层可能并不急于宣扬股份回购的可能性,因为回购通常与老公司有所关联。但他认为,英伟达回购股份是显而易见的。
他说道:“没有人谈论这件事,但如果你用我们的模型来预测,你会发现英伟达将有大量现金。这些现金无处可花。美国政府不会允许他们收购任何大公司。他们也无法把这么多现金投入到研发当中。这根本不可能。因此股东将成为受益者。”
英伟达确实在向股东返还资金。去年8月,英伟达公布了250亿美元的回购计划。上个月,英伟达将季度现金股息提高了150%,从每股0.04美元提高到0.10美元,相当于分股后每股0.01美元。
英伟达拒绝评价回购更多股份的可能性。
雷特兹很快指出,未来的任何回购都不意味着英伟达已经停止增长。“当你的现金无处可花的时候,回购股份并不是耻辱。”
英伟达最近的财务业绩显示,它创造现金的速度正在加快。在截止于今年1月的财年,英伟达经营业务提供的净现金从前一财年的56亿美元暴涨至281亿美元。
在截至今年4月的第一季度,经营业务提供的净现金为153亿美元,已经超过去年净现金总额的一半。
与此同时,黄仁勋最近对投资者表示,尽管有竞争对手可能抢占英伟达市场份额的担忧,英伟达仍将是人工智能训练芯片的黄金标准。
黄仁勋在上周三举行的公司年度股东大会上表示,英伟达在今年晚些时候推出的Blackwell系统将巩固公司的领先地位。
黄仁勋说道:“Blackwell架构平台可能是公司历史上甚至计算机历史上最成功的产品。”(财富中文网)
翻译:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
AI chip leader Nvidia will have an embarrassment of riches in the coming years, and shareholders will be rewarded, a tech analysts predicted.
Ben Reitzes, a managing director and head of technology research at Melius Research, told CNBC on Wednesday that Jensen Huang’s Nvidia has mastered a “full stack” approach with its hardware and software, giving it a key advantage in AI.
“What they did is they built a computing language and an ecosystem that allows you to monetize AI, and obviously they’re killing it,” he said.
Reitzes has a price target of $160 on Nvidia stock, implying a 30% gain from Friday’s closing price. Despite an ongoing selloff that began earlier this month, shares have soared 150% so far this year after more than tripling in 2023. Among the Magnificent 7 stocks that he covers, Nvidia has the most upside ahead, he added.
Another big advantage Nvidia has over rivals is its annual cadence of innovating new products, Reitzes said. That means developers and customers will know where Nvidia is headed and can budget for upgrades accordingly.
“And they’re running 150 miles an hour while everyone else is running 100. It’s going to be hard to catch these guys,” he said.
Given Nvidia’s edge in the booming AI space, Melius Research projects the company will generate $270 billion in cash over the next three years, potentially setting the stage for huge shareholder returns.
Management may not be eager to tout the possibility of stock buybacks as those are often associated with older companies, Reitzes said. But in his view, it’s obvious.
“No one’s talking about it, and when you do the model we do, it’s a cash gusher,” he said. “And there’s nothing they can do. This government’s not going to let them buy anything big. They can’t invest that much in R&D. It’s just not possible. So we gotta get it as shareholders.”
To be sure, Nvidia has been returning capital to shareholders. In August, it announced a $25 billion repurchase program. And last month, Nvidia boosted its quarterly cash dividend by 150% from $0.04 per share to $0.10, equivalent to $0.01 per share on a post-split basis.
Nvidia declined to comment about the possibility of more stock buybacks.
For his part, Reitzes was quick to point out that any future buybacks wouldn’t imply that Nvidia has stopped growing. “It’s not an insult to buy back stocks if you have nothing else to do.”
Nvidia’s recent financials show that its ability to generate cash is accelerating. In the fiscal year that ended in January, Nvidia’s net cash provided by operating activities soared to $28.1 billion from $5.6 billion in the prior year.
And in the first quarter that ended in April, net cash provided by operating activities was $15.3 billion—already more than half of last year’s total.
Meanwhile, Huang told investors this past week that Nvidia will remain the gold standard for AI training chips amid concerns that rivals could cut into his market share.
The rollout of Nvidia’s Blackwell system later this year will only cement that lead, he said at the company’s annual shareholder meeting on Wednesday.
“The Blackwell architecture platform will likely be the most successful product in our history and even in the entire computer history,” Huang said.