从高盛集团(Goldman Sachs & Co.)到摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)和巴克莱银行(Barclays Plc.)等金融巨头都在重新审视债券市场的走势(如果唐纳德·特朗普在11月重新入主白宫)。
在上周的辩论影响了总统乔·拜登(Joe Biden)赢得连任的机会之后,华尔街策略师正敦促客户为粘性通胀和长期债券收益率上升做好准备。
摩根士丹利包括马修·霍恩巴赫(Matthew Hornbach)和古尼特·丁格拉(Guneet Dhingra)在内的策略师在上周末的一份报告中表示,相对于短期利率,“现在是时候”押注长期利率将会上升了。
摩根士丹利表示,特朗普自上周四辩论以来在民调中的支持率上升,意味着投资者不得不考虑可能导致美联储进一步降息的经济政策,以及共和党大胜导致财政扩张和长期债券收益率上升的压力。
巴克莱银行则表示,面对特朗普胜选可能性攀升,最好的应对措施就是对冲通胀。策略师迈克尔·庞德(Michael Pond)和乔纳森·希尔(Jonathan Hill)上周五撰文称,最清晰的表述是押注五年期通胀保值国债(TIPS)的表现将优于标准五年期债券。
像布兰迪环球投资管理公司(Brandywine Global Investment Management)投资组合经理杰克·麦金太尔(Jack McIntyre)这样的买方投资者也越来越注意到这一点。
麦金太尔说,他“担心债券义警会因为辩论失利而提前出场。拜登的表现、疲弱的经济数据和上涨的油价”将增加共和党在11月大获全胜的几率。
美国国债周一下跌,将收益率推升至一周多来的最高水平,交易员表示,这是上周特朗普连任几率上升带来的持续影响。
美国最高法院对一起案件作出裁决后(该案件将限制特朗普在11月大选前因试图推翻2020年大选结果的指控而受审的可能性),国债继续下跌。
最长期限的国债收益率领涨,30年期国债收益率上涨逾8个基点,至4.65%,为5月31日以来的最高水平。
并非所有华尔街人士都认为长期国债收益率上升和国债收益率曲线呈现陡峭化趋势是不可避免的。
以乔治·科尔(George Cole)和威廉·马歇尔(William Marshall)领导的高盛集团策略师在辩论结束后写道:“尽管达成的共识是美国国债收益率对共和党获胜的反应将是期限溢价驱动的抛售,但我们认为风险趋平也是合乎情理的。”他们认为,投资者的关注点将从财政支出转向提高关税的风险,随着大选临近,提高关税可能会对生产率和经济增长造成压力。
嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)首席固定收益策略师凯西·琼斯(Kathy Jones)表示,由于11月后国会的组成尚不明朗,关于特朗普政策将如何影响市场的假设站不住脚。
琼斯周一在接受彭博电视台采访时表示:“大选后政策走向的变化可能是美国国债市场面临的最大风险。我只是认为现在下结论还为时过早。总统候选人在竞选过程中可能发表很多言论,但他们必须让国会通过这些提案。”(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
从高盛集团(Goldman Sachs & Co.)到摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)和巴克莱银行(Barclays Plc.)等金融巨头都在重新审视债券市场的走势(如果唐纳德·特朗普在11月重新入主白宫)。
在上周的辩论影响了总统乔·拜登(Joe Biden)赢得连任的机会之后,华尔街策略师正敦促客户为粘性通胀和长期债券收益率上升做好准备。
摩根士丹利包括马修·霍恩巴赫(Matthew Hornbach)和古尼特·丁格拉(Guneet Dhingra)在内的策略师在上周末的一份报告中表示,相对于短期利率,“现在是时候”押注长期利率将会上升了。
摩根士丹利表示,特朗普自上周四辩论以来在民调中的支持率上升,意味着投资者不得不考虑可能导致美联储进一步降息的经济政策,以及共和党大胜导致财政扩张和长期债券收益率上升的压力。
巴克莱银行则表示,面对特朗普胜选可能性攀升,最好的应对措施就是对冲通胀。策略师迈克尔·庞德(Michael Pond)和乔纳森·希尔(Jonathan Hill)上周五撰文称,最清晰的表述是押注五年期通胀保值国债(TIPS)的表现将优于标准五年期债券。
像布兰迪环球投资管理公司(Brandywine Global Investment Management)投资组合经理杰克·麦金太尔(Jack McIntyre)这样的买方投资者也越来越注意到这一点。
麦金太尔说,他“担心债券义警会因为辩论失利而提前出场。拜登的表现、疲弱的经济数据和上涨的油价”将增加共和党在11月大获全胜的几率。
美国国债周一下跌,将收益率推升至一周多来的最高水平,交易员表示,这是上周特朗普连任几率上升带来的持续影响。
美国最高法院对一起案件作出裁决后(该案件将限制特朗普在11月大选前因试图推翻2020年大选结果的指控而受审的可能性),国债继续下跌。
最长期限的国债收益率领涨,30年期国债收益率上涨逾8个基点,至4.65%,为5月31日以来的最高水平。
并非所有华尔街人士都认为长期国债收益率上升和国债收益率曲线呈现陡峭化趋势是不可避免的。
以乔治·科尔(George Cole)和威廉·马歇尔(William Marshall)领导的高盛集团策略师在辩论结束后写道:“尽管达成的共识是美国国债收益率对共和党获胜的反应将是期限溢价驱动的抛售,但我们认为风险趋平也是合乎情理的。”他们认为,投资者的关注点将从财政支出转向提高关税的风险,随着大选临近,提高关税可能会对生产率和经济增长造成压力。
嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)首席固定收益策略师凯西·琼斯(Kathy Jones)表示,由于11月后国会的组成尚不明朗,关于特朗普政策将如何影响市场的假设站不住脚。
琼斯周一在接受彭博电视台采访时表示:“大选后政策走向的变化可能是美国国债市场面临的最大风险。我只是认为现在下结论还为时过早。总统候选人在竞选过程中可能发表很多言论,但他们必须让国会通过这些提案。”(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
Financial giants from Goldman Sachs & Co. to Morgan Stanley and Barclays Plc. are taking a fresh look at how a Donald Trump victory in November could play out in the bond market.
After last week’s debate hurt President Joe Biden’s chances of winning reelection, Wall Street strategists are urging clients to position for sticky inflation and higher long-term bond yields.
At Morgan Stanley, strategists including Matthew Hornbach and Guneet Dhingra in a weekend note argued that “now is the time” to wager on long-term interest rates rising relative to short-term ones.
Trump’s rise in the polls since Thursday’s debate means investors have to contemplate economic policies that could lead to more rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, along with a Republican sweep that leads to fiscal expansion and pressures longer-term bond yields higher, Morgan Stanley said.
Barclays, meanwhile, said that the best response to the rising prospect of a Trump victory is to hedge against inflation. Strategists Michael Pond and Jonathan Hill wrote Friday that the clearest expression is a wager that five-year Treasury inflation-protected securities, or TIPS, will outperform standard five-year notes.
Buy-side investors like Jack McIntyre, a portfolio manager at Brandywine Global Investment Management, are increasingly taking note.
McIntyre said he “is worried that the bond vigilantes are coming out early in response to the debate fall out.” The odds of a Republican sweep in November will increase from a combination of “Biden’s performance, weaker data, higher oil prices.”
US Treasuries fell on Monday, pushing yields to the highest levels in more than a week, in what traders said was ongoing fallout from last week’s bump in the odds of a second Trump term.
Treasuries extended their losses after the Supreme Court ruled in a case that will limit the chances that Trump will face trial before the November election on charges for attempting to reverse the 2020 election results.
The uptick in Treasury yields was led by the longest maturities, with 30-year bonds up more than eight basis points to 4.65%, the highest level since May 31.
Not all on Wall Street are convinced that higher long-term Treasury yields and steeper curves are inevitable.
“While a term premia-driven sell-off has been consensus for how US yields should react to a Republican victory, we see arguments for flattening risk,” Goldman Sachs strategists led by George Cole and William Marshall wrote after the debate. They see investor focus shifting away from fiscal spending and towards the risks of higher tariffs, which are likely to weigh on productivity and growth as the election comes into view.
With the makeup of Congress after November unclear, assumptions about how Trump policies will impact markets are on shaky ground, Kathy Jones, chief fixed-income strategist at Charles Schwab said.
“A shift in the narrative about what policy will be after the election is probably the biggest risk to the Treasury market,” Jones told Bloomberg Television Monday. “I just think it’s too early. Presidential candidates can say a lot of things on the campaign trail, but they have to get those things through Congress.”