对冲基金寰宇投资(Universa Investments)的联合创始人兼首席投资官马克·斯皮兹纳格尔经常针对泡沫破灭和其他极端市场事件拉响警报。
作为《黑天鹅》(The Black Swan)作者纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布的门生,斯皮兹纳格尔在接受《华尔街日报》采访时表示,一场严重的股灾即将发生,而且美股市值可能蒸发超过一半,他还认为他最近的警告不应该令人意外。
斯皮兹纳格尔说道:“我认为,非常非常糟糕的事情即将发生——当然,我会这么说。”
他的对冲基金专门从事尾部风险对冲交易,这种策略旨在防止因前所未有和不太可能发生的经济灾难(又称“黑天鹅”)造成损失。
他因在这类黑天鹅事件中获利丰厚而闻名,包括新冠疫情,而且他最近就美国的负债和“人类史上最严重的信贷泡沫”发出了警告。
虽然美股较近期的最高点大幅下降,其中标普500指数经历了自4月以来最糟糕的一周,但是斯皮兹纳格尔预计,市场涨势会持续几个月,而且涨幅更大,因为通胀放缓和美联储降息所带来的“金发姑娘阶段”,将刺激投资者对市场继续上涨的预期。
但他也警告美联储降息通常是市场开始严重逆转的信号。他对《华尔街日报》表示:“做空市场的主张,不会让你觉得自己是个傻瓜。”
斯皮兹纳格尔表示,当下的情形可以与互联网泡沫破灭相提并论,但即将到来的暴跌将更加严重。他补充说,这是因为目前的市场极端情况代表了“人类史上最严重的泡沫”。
他预测,美国负债已经达到历史水平,联邦政府将无力应对,而且到今年年底,美国经济将陷入衰退。
斯皮兹纳格尔最近的观点,与他今年4月对《财富》杂志的维尔·丹尼尔表达的观点遥相呼应。他当时表示,仅靠投资者的积极情绪,无法让市场持续走高,而且更高的利率会影响美国经济。
他说道:“美联储做了许多事情。现在,人们似乎在强烈呼吁美联储收手。但它无法收回已经做过的事情。市场终究要遵循基本面,但总会出现一些‘金发女孩’行情,市场会脱离基本面。”
最近几天,美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔和其他央行均暗示,通货膨胀终于受到控制,而且可能很快就会降息,市场普遍预测美联储会在9月降息。
但斯皮兹纳格尔在4月表示,“从某种程度上来说,有史以来最快、最严重的紧缩政策,催生了人类史上最严重的信贷泡沫”,其后果是无法避免的。他补充说“到那时,情况会变得非常糟糕,而且在某种程度上,想要脱身可能为时已晚”。(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
对冲基金寰宇投资(Universa Investments)的联合创始人兼首席投资官马克·斯皮兹纳格尔经常针对泡沫破灭和其他极端市场事件拉响警报。
作为《黑天鹅》(The Black Swan)作者纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布的门生,斯皮兹纳格尔在接受《华尔街日报》采访时表示,一场严重的股灾即将发生,而且美股市值可能蒸发超过一半,他还认为他最近的警告不应该令人意外。
斯皮兹纳格尔说道:“我认为,非常非常糟糕的事情即将发生——当然,我会这么说。”
他的对冲基金专门从事尾部风险对冲交易,这种策略旨在防止因前所未有和不太可能发生的经济灾难(又称“黑天鹅”)造成损失。
他因在这类黑天鹅事件中获利丰厚而闻名,包括新冠疫情,而且他最近就美国的负债和“人类史上最严重的信贷泡沫”发出了警告。
虽然美股较近期的最高点大幅下降,其中标普500指数经历了自4月以来最糟糕的一周,但是斯皮兹纳格尔预计,市场涨势会持续几个月,而且涨幅更大,因为通胀放缓和美联储降息所带来的“金发姑娘阶段”,将刺激投资者对市场继续上涨的预期。
但他也警告美联储降息通常是市场开始严重逆转的信号。他对《华尔街日报》表示:“做空市场的主张,不会让你觉得自己是个傻瓜。”
斯皮兹纳格尔表示,当下的情形可以与互联网泡沫破灭相提并论,但即将到来的暴跌将更加严重。他补充说,这是因为目前的市场极端情况代表了“人类史上最严重的泡沫”。
他预测,美国负债已经达到历史水平,联邦政府将无力应对,而且到今年年底,美国经济将陷入衰退。
斯皮兹纳格尔最近的观点,与他今年4月对《财富》杂志的维尔·丹尼尔表达的观点遥相呼应。他当时表示,仅靠投资者的积极情绪,无法让市场持续走高,而且更高的利率会影响美国经济。
他说道:“美联储做了许多事情。现在,人们似乎在强烈呼吁美联储收手。但它无法收回已经做过的事情。市场终究要遵循基本面,但总会出现一些‘金发女孩’行情,市场会脱离基本面。”
最近几天,美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔和其他央行均暗示,通货膨胀终于受到控制,而且可能很快就会降息,市场普遍预测美联储会在9月降息。
但斯皮兹纳格尔在4月表示,“从某种程度上来说,有史以来最快、最严重的紧缩政策,催生了人类史上最严重的信贷泡沫”,其后果是无法避免的。他补充说“到那时,情况会变得非常糟糕,而且在某种程度上,想要脱身可能为时已晚”。(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
Mark Spitznagel, cofounder and chief investment officer of the hedge fund Universa Investments, has frequently sounded the alarm about bubbles popping and other extreme market events.
In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, the long-time associate of The Black Swan author Nassim Nicholas Taleb said a severe crash is on the way and stocks could lose more than half their value, while acknowledging that his latest warning should come as no surprise.
“I think we’re on the way to something really, really bad—but of course I’d say that,” Spitznagel said.
His hedge fund specializes in tail-risk hedging, a strategy that seeks to prevent losses from unforeseeable and unlikely economic catastrophes, also known as “black swans.”
He had famously made astronomical gains on such events, including the COVID-19 pandemic, and more recently has warned about U.S. debt and the “greatest credit bubble in human history.“
Even as stocks have come well off recent highs, with the S&P 500 suffering its worst week since April, Spitznagel expects the market rally to continue for months and get wilder because the “Goldilocks phase” of slowing inflation and rate cuts from the Federal Reserve will stoke bets that markets will continue running higher.
But he also warned Fed rate cuts are often the opening signal for severe market reversals, telling the Journal that “You don’t feel like a fool for making a bearish argument.”
Spitznagel sees parallels between today and the dot-com bust but thinks the selloff that’s coming will be even worse than that. That’s because market extremes now represent the “greatest bubble in human history,” he added.
With U.S. debt already at historic levels, the federal government will have less capacity to respond, and the economy could enter a recession by the end of this year, he predicted.
Spitznagel’s latest comments echo what he told Fortune’s Will Daniel in April, when he said investors’ positive sentiment alone can’t carry markets higher indefinitely and that higher rates are weighing on the economy.
“The Fed did a lot. And now it’s sort of jawboning its way out of it. But it can’t take back what it did,” he said. “Markets follow fundamentals at the end of the day, but you can have these little Goldilocks zones where it can get sort of untethered.”
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and other central banks have hinted in recent days that inflation is finally coming under control and that rate cuts may be coming soon, with markets widely seeing the first one in September.
But Spitznagel said in April that fallout from the “the fastest, greatest tightening ever, by some regards, into the greatest credit bubble of human history” can’t be avoided, adding “That’s when things are going to be really bad—and at that point, it’s probably also too late to get out.”