全世界最著名的价值投资者,如今却抱着巨额现金。根据沃伦·巴菲特麾下伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway)的季度财报,目前该公司持有的现金和等价物超过3250亿美元,其中大部分是美国国债。
每个人都想知道为什么。他不入场是因为觉得市场不稳定、价格过高吗?他没找到机会吗?他在为接班人让路吗?
如今股市一片火热。标普500指数突破 6000 点大关。今年是 2000 年以来股市最好的年份之一。企业估值飙升,利润也一样。英伟达(Nvidia)最新公布的业绩超出预期,利润翻了一番,在人工智能支持下收入激增。但巴菲特是价值投资者,一直在寻找价值低估且具有长期投资潜力的公司。被称为 “奥马哈先知 ”的巴菲特曾表示,不投资不了解的东西,比如科技公司——当然了苹果公司除外。话虽如此,巴菲特手中不断增加的现金有相当一部分是抛售苹果公司股票攒下的。
CFRA Research的董事凯茜·塞弗特解释称,“苹果在投资组合里比重越来越高”,因此抛售“有其道理”。她说,伯克希尔在科技领域起步较晚,与苹果的合作表现不错。另一方面,Keefe,Bruyette&Woods的董事总经理迈耶·希尔兹表示,可能公司认为“苹果估值还算合理,或者高过了合理估值。”
“几十年来,伯克希尔就是有点无聊,又很成功,”他表示。
不管怎样,猜测巴菲特资金的动向都要困难得多。塞弗特说,虽然市场很疯狂,但巴菲特是价值投资者,他“在众人贪婪时恐惧,在众人恐惧时贪婪……他不会被大势左右,当然不会。”
按照希尔兹的说法,有些人眼里的火爆股市,“巴菲特会说价格太高。”他说,伯克希尔哈撒韦的投资经理托德·库姆斯和泰德·韦施勒似乎开始考虑科技板块,但可能认为很多科技公司“按内部估值指标而言价格过高,因此仍有可能避开这一领域。”
伯克希尔买披萨和游泳池
不过,最近伯克希尔还是有所斩获:多米诺披萨(Domino’s Pizza)是广受欢迎的披萨连锁店,Pool Corporation则是一家泳池用品公司。毕竟,巴菲特偏爱垃圾食品股(也喜欢垃圾食品,但谁不喜欢呢)。据雅虎财经(Yahoo Finance)报道,截至三季度末,伯克希尔持有多米诺披萨的市值约为 5.49 亿美元,持有Pool 股票市值约为 1.52 亿美元。
总体而言,股票市场对特朗普胜选以及下一任期态度积极,但伯克希尔似乎不以为然。塞弗特解释说,可能是因为公司认为特朗普的政策是通胀政策,大选后的涨势不可持续。“他们对市场估值的热情显然比较克制,”她表示。另一方面,上一季度伯克希尔的整体业绩相当疲软,因此塞弗特认为,伯克希尔正谨慎对待自身的财务业绩和市场估值——或许还有别的原因。
她说:“我认为,人们不会预期巴菲特带大批现金入市,投资者期待伯克希尔收购。” 特朗普 2.0 可能意味着监管环境更宽松,尤其是在并购领域。不过塞弗特表示,随着私募股权崛起,对目标公司的竞争也会更加激烈。
格雷格·阿贝尔已被任命为伯克希尔哈撒韦的接班人。塞弗特认为囤积现金 “不一定是为接班做准备”,她说。在她看来,这 “说明公司对当前市场估值的可持续性,特朗普贸易的可持续性存在怀疑,以及没找到有吸引力的收购目标”。
除了 1967 年一次明显例外,伯克希尔从不支付股息,因此现金会随着时间推移不断积累。伯克希尔消耗现金的方法之一是回购股票,目前还没启用。这又回到了继任规划的问题上。
"不幸的现实是,在某个时间点高管层会出现变动,我怀疑他们想留着大量现金回购伯克希尔哈撒韦的股票,”希尔兹说。
他继续说:"如果发生这种情况,我们预计一觉醒来巴菲特不在了,股票会被抛售。我认为,很多人持有伯克希尔哈撒韦公司股票都是因为巴菲特。他们希望有充足的现金,这样就可以利用抛售为股东争取利益。”
塞弗特解释说,不管怎样巴菲特都不会一头扎进最新的投资热潮,之前这一策略对伯克希尔也一直有效。此外,尽管随着现金不断累积 “富得有点尴尬”,但回报率也在上升。毕竟钱放在那也能赚钱。(财富中文网)
译者:梁宇
审校:夏林
全世界最著名的价值投资者,如今却抱着巨额现金。根据沃伦·巴菲特麾下伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway)的季度财报,目前该公司持有的现金和等价物超过3250亿美元,其中大部分是美国国债。
每个人都想知道为什么。他不入场是因为觉得市场不稳定、价格过高吗?他没找到机会吗?他在为接班人让路吗?
如今股市一片火热。标普500指数突破 6000 点大关。今年是 2000 年以来股市最好的年份之一。企业估值飙升,利润也一样。英伟达(Nvidia)最新公布的业绩超出预期,利润翻了一番,在人工智能支持下收入激增。但巴菲特是价值投资者,一直在寻找价值低估且具有长期投资潜力的公司。被称为 “奥马哈先知 ”的巴菲特曾表示,不投资不了解的东西,比如科技公司——当然了苹果公司除外。话虽如此,巴菲特手中不断增加的现金有相当一部分是抛售苹果公司股票攒下的。
CFRA Research的董事凯茜·塞弗特解释称,“苹果在投资组合里比重越来越高”,因此抛售“有其道理”。她说,伯克希尔在科技领域起步较晚,与苹果的合作表现不错。另一方面,Keefe,Bruyette&Woods的董事总经理迈耶·希尔兹表示,可能公司认为“苹果估值还算合理,或者高过了合理估值。”
“几十年来,伯克希尔就是有点无聊,又很成功,”他表示。
不管怎样,猜测巴菲特资金的动向都要困难得多。塞弗特说,虽然市场很疯狂,但巴菲特是价值投资者,他“在众人贪婪时恐惧,在众人恐惧时贪婪……他不会被大势左右,当然不会。”
按照希尔兹的说法,有些人眼里的火爆股市,“巴菲特会说价格太高。”他说,伯克希尔哈撒韦的投资经理托德·库姆斯和泰德·韦施勒似乎开始考虑科技板块,但可能认为很多科技公司“按内部估值指标而言价格过高,因此仍有可能避开这一领域。”
伯克希尔买披萨和游泳池
不过,最近伯克希尔还是有所斩获:多米诺披萨(Domino’s Pizza)是广受欢迎的披萨连锁店,Pool Corporation则是一家泳池用品公司。毕竟,巴菲特偏爱垃圾食品股(也喜欢垃圾食品,但谁不喜欢呢)。据雅虎财经(Yahoo Finance)报道,截至三季度末,伯克希尔持有多米诺披萨的市值约为 5.49 亿美元,持有Pool 股票市值约为 1.52 亿美元。
总体而言,股票市场对特朗普胜选以及下一任期态度积极,但伯克希尔似乎不以为然。塞弗特解释说,可能是因为公司认为特朗普的政策是通胀政策,大选后的涨势不可持续。“他们对市场估值的热情显然比较克制,”她表示。另一方面,上一季度伯克希尔的整体业绩相当疲软,因此塞弗特认为,伯克希尔正谨慎对待自身的财务业绩和市场估值——或许还有别的原因。
她说:“我认为,人们不会预期巴菲特带大批现金入市,投资者期待伯克希尔收购。” 特朗普 2.0 可能意味着监管环境更宽松,尤其是在并购领域。不过塞弗特表示,随着私募股权崛起,对目标公司的竞争也会更加激烈。
格雷格·阿贝尔已被任命为伯克希尔哈撒韦的接班人。塞弗特认为囤积现金 “不一定是为接班做准备”,她说。在她看来,这 “说明公司对当前市场估值的可持续性,特朗普贸易的可持续性存在怀疑,以及没找到有吸引力的收购目标”。
除了 1967 年一次明显例外,伯克希尔从不支付股息,因此现金会随着时间推移不断积累。伯克希尔消耗现金的方法之一是回购股票,目前还没启用。这又回到了继任规划的问题上。
"不幸的现实是,在某个时间点高管层会出现变动,我怀疑他们想留着大量现金回购伯克希尔哈撒韦的股票,”希尔兹说。
他继续说:"如果发生这种情况,我们预计一觉醒来巴菲特不在了,股票会被抛售。我认为,很多人持有伯克希尔哈撒韦公司股票都是因为巴菲特。他们希望有充足的现金,这样就可以利用抛售为股东争取利益。”
塞弗特解释说,不管怎样巴菲特都不会一头扎进最新的投资热潮,之前这一策略对伯克希尔也一直有效。此外,尽管随着现金不断累积 “富得有点尴尬”,但回报率也在上升。毕竟钱放在那也能赚钱。(财富中文网)
译者:梁宇
审校:夏林
The world’s most famous value investor is sitting on an enormous cash pile. Warren Buffett’s conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway currently holds more than $325 billion in cash and equivalents, according to the firm’s quarterly financial statements, most of it in U.S. Treasury bills.
Everyone wants to know why. Is he cashing out because he sees an unstable market priced too high? Are there no opportunities presenting themselves to him? Is he making way for a successor?
The stock market is hot, booming, on a winning steak. The S&P 500 surpassed the 6,000 mark. This year has been one of the best-performing years since 2000. Corporate valuations are soaring, and profits are too. This week, Nvidia crushed expectations, doubling its profits with its revenues surging on the back of artificial intelligence. But Buffett has always looked for undervalued companies with potential to invest in for the long term: a value investor. The Oracle of Omaha, as he is called, once said he doesn’t invest in things he doesn’t understand, such as technology companies—apart from Apple, of course. That said, part of that mounting cash reserve is from aggressively selling shares of Apple.
Cathy Seifert, a director at CFRA Research, explained that “Apple was becoming an outsize piece of the portfolio,” so the offloading “made sense.” Berkshire was late to the tech game but had a decent run with Apple, she said. On the other hand, Meyer Shields, a managing director at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, said the firm might have thought “it was fairly valued, or maybe more than fairly valued.”
“Berkshire has succeeded over the decades by being boring in that way,” he said.
Either way, it’s a lot more difficult to speculate about the cash. While it’s a crazy market, Seifert said, Buffett is a value investor who “tends to zig when everybody else zags… He’s not going to be swayed by momentum, certainly not.”
According to Shields, what some describe as a hot stock market, “Warren Buffett would describe as overpriced.” Berkshire investment managers Todd Combs and Ted Weschler seem to have opened the company to technology exposure, he said, but it’s still possible they see a lot of it as “overpriced relative to whatever internal valuation metrics that they use, and because of that, they’re not averse to not investing in that market.”
Berkshire buys pizza and pools
However, Berkshire did recently buy some stocks: Domino’s Pizza, a favorite pizza franchise, and Pool Corporation, a swimming pool supplies company. After all, Buffett favors junk-food stocks (and really, just junk food, but who doesn’t). At the end of the third quarter, Berkshire’s stake in Domino’s was valued at around $549 million while the Pool stake was valued at about $152 million, according to Yahoo Finance.
Overall, the stock market has reacted positively to Donald Trump’s win and the prospect of another Trump presidency, but Berkshire doesn’t appear to be getting in on the action. It could be because those at the firm don’t see the post-election rally being sustainable, Seifert explained, calling Trump’s policies inflationary. “Their enthusiasm for market valuations is certainly tempered,” she said. Not to mention, Berkshire’s overall financial results in the last quarter were pretty weak in her mind, so Seifert believes it’s looking cautiously at its own financial results and market valuations—and maybe one other thing.
“I don’t think anyone is expecting that cash pile to be deployed into the equity markets, per se,” she said. “I think investors are looking for Berkshire to make an acquisition.” Trump 2.0 could mean an easier regulatory environment, particularly as it relates to mergers and acquisitions. Even so, with the rise of private equity, there’s more competition for target companies, Seifert said.
Greg Abel has been named to succeed Buffett in helming Berkshire Hathaway when the time comes. Still, Seifert doesn’t think cash hoarding is “necessarily with an eye toward succession,” she said. To her, it instead “reflects a fundamental skepticism about the sustainability of current market valuations, the sustainability of the Trump trade, combined with the fact that they’re not seeing a lot of acquisition targets that are appealing to them.”
Still, Berkshire doesn’t pay a dividend, except for one notable exception in 1967, so cash accumulates over time. One of its methods of using the cash, buying back its stock, isn’t being used. That brings us right back to succession planning.
“The unfortunate actuarial reality is, at some point in time, you have a change in senior management, and I suspect that they want to have a lot of cash to buy back Berkshire Hathaway stock,” Shields said.
He continued: “When that happens, our expectation is that we wake up tomorrow, Warren Buffett is not there, the stock sells off. There are a lot of people that own Berkshire Hathaway, I think, because of Warren Buffett. They want to have plenty of cash available so that they can utilize any sell off to the benefit of the shareholders.”
Either way, Buffett doesn’t dive headfirst into the latest investment craze, Seifert explained, and in the past, that has worked out for Berkshire. Plus, despite the “sort of an embarrassment of riches there,” as the cash pile expands, the return on it is rising too. It’s making money just sitting there.