为何移动支付短期内难成气候

    谷歌（Google）、手机支付商Square、财捷（Intuit）等企业都在开发移动支付平台上投入了大量心力，据传苹果（Apple）也已加入了战团。移动支付技术的长期潜力已变得越来越明晰。不过现在仍然很难预测这个襁褓中的产业究竟将如何演化下去。

    这几家公司的服务都是立足将移动设备当成一个信用交易平台来使用，只是方法各有不同。谷歌钱包（Google Wallet）功能使安卓系统的智能手机只需在可兼容的读卡器前面轻轻一刷，便可完成支付。而Square以及财捷的GoPayment服务则需将一个小型信用卡读卡器插入手机的耳机插孔。尤其Square的移动支付服务更是蒸蒸日上。这家由杰克•多尔西创办的初创公司只有两年半的历史，上周该公司在10亿美元估值的基础上，又募集了1亿美元的资金，使它再度成为新闻头条的主角。

    移动支付发展到这一步，我们更容易发现此类服务的一些更深远、更直接的好处。有了Square和GoPayment，任何商家都可以接受数字化支付，而无需花费数百美元去购置传统的信用卡交易机。而且谷歌钱包等服务也意味着你也许再也不必带信用卡出门了。另外，长远看来，移动支付的发展还可能带来一些极为诱人的可能。

（1）实时反馈

    一般来说，商家可能最多要等上两个星期的时间，才能获得反馈，知道老式的纸质优惠券在顾客中的使用情况如何。有了近场通讯技术（Near Field Communications），商家可以立即收到来自顾客的智能手机的反馈，而且这些反馈更加丰富和详尽。印孚瑟斯公司（Infosys）银行与资本市场集团的负责人拉斯•斯卡里表示，商家和营销人员可以以小时为单位对手头上的优惠券消费数据进行解析，检验不同时间段优惠券的总体使用率，从而便于商家抽空调整优惠券的折扣率。

（2） 利用GPS功能

    假如消费者可以随心所欲地更改手机的隐私设置，那么智能手机的GPS将使手机的地点敏感型功能发展到一个新的高度。

    谷歌商业部副总裁斯蒂芬尼•蒂乐纽斯于今年早些时候指出，近场通讯技术可能使我们的日常生活变得更加轻松。比如说如果你在GAP牌服饰的门店里看上了一条牛仔裤，但是你的尺码恰好卖光了，那么你只要刷一下你的智能手机，商家就会将符合你尺寸的牛仔裤寄给你。

    斯卡里给出了一个更加具体的例子。当一个购物者步入一家超市时，他的手机会收到一条根据他过去在本超市的购物史而编制的购物清单。就在他一边沿着货架间的通道走，一边寻找诸如速冻匹萨之类的商品时，他的手机里就会收到这些商品的优惠券。其他超市为了吸引这名消费者前去购物，甚至有可能修改他们的优惠券，向消费者提供更大的折扣。如果用户输入社交网络账号，他们还会获得更多的信息，比如朋友们最近买过什么，以及他们都推荐了哪些品牌等。

（3）更便捷的银行体验

    谷歌钱包等移动支付服务可能无法取代商业银行的业务模式，但却可以改变顾客与商业银行的互动方式。

    现在谷歌钱包淘汰信用卡的势头已经初现端倪。斯卡里指出，移动支付服务的下一个合理的发展方向，应该是要能够支付各种账单，成为银行与顾客之间的桥梁，并且提供一个简单明了的用户界面，使银行与顾客之间能够进行无缝互动。

    听起来有些不切实际？或许吧。不过考虑到这些公司都擅长提供轻松的用户体验，因此上述的种种情形还是可能的。斯卡里表示：“谷歌、Square以及理财网站Mint等公司更加着眼于真实的零售环境，他们正在全面入侵30岁以下消费群体的各个重要的细分市场。”

    Square的首席运营官基思•拉布伊斯也支持这一论断——至少他对自己的公司很有信心。拉布伊斯宣称，Square的市值有95%的胜算会在未来的某一天超过eBay的贝宝（PayPal），其文化意义也有50%的可能性会超过贝宝。

    “我们并非仅局限于电子商务，”他说：“我们使真实世界的电子支付成为可能，这是一个更大也更有价值的市场。”

    译者：朴成奎

    As companies like Google (GOOG), Square, Intuit (INTU) and, reportedly, Apple (AAPL) place their bets on some form of mobile payments, the technology's long-term potential becomes clear. What's harder to envision is exactly how this nascent industry will evolve.

    Each company's service manages to transform mobile devices into a credit-transaction device, although their approaches vary. Google Wallet lets Android smartphones make payments simply by swiping or tapping them in front of compatible readers. Meanwhile, Square and Intuit's GoPayment services rely on credit-card readers that plug into audio jacks. Square in particular is thriving: Jack Dorsey's two-and-a-half-year-old startup made headlines again this week when it raised $100 million at a $1 billion valuation.

    At this point, it's easier to glean the broader, more immediate benefits of such services. With Square and GoPayment, any merchant can handle digital payments without having to shell out hundreds of dollars for a traditional credit card transaction machine. And services like Google Wallet may mean you never have to carry around plastic again. Beyond that, however, there are longer-term possibilities for mobile payments that are especially tantalizing:

1.) Real-time feedback.

    It can take up to two weeks for merchants to receive feedback as to how well a plain-old paper coupon performed with customers. With Near Field Communications (NFC), feedback from smartphones could be instantaneous, richer and more detailed. Lars Skari, who heads Infosys' banking and capital markets group, said merchants and marketers can parse through available data on coupon purchases hour-by-hour, examining overall coupon adoption rates over time. That information would allow them to adjust coupon discounts on the fly.

2.) Tapping the GPS

    Assuming consumers can opt in and tweak privacy settings to their hearts' desire, the smartphone's GPS could add a new level of location-sensitive features.

    Earlier this year, Stephanie Tilenius, Google's VP of Commerce, suggested that NFC could make every day life easier: If you find some jeans in a Gap (GAP) store but they're out of your size, a scan of your smartphone can make sure a pair will be sent to you.

    Skari offers a more detailed example. When a shopper walks into the supermarket, his smartphone could receive a customized shopping list based on his shopping history there. As he walks down an aisle looking for say, frozen pizza, he'll receive coupons for them. Other supermarkets could try to entice him through their doors by modifying their coupons and offering deeper discounts. If users plug in their social accounts, they get even more information, such as what their friends recently purchased or which brands they recommend.

3.) An easier banking experience

    Services like Google Wallet likely won't upend the business models of commercial banks, but could alter the way customers interact with them.

    Already, Google Wallet promises to make plastic obsolete. Skari suggests the next logical step would be for such services to handle billing payments as well, acting as an intermediary between banks and customers and providing a simple, clean user interface that lets them interact seamlessly.

    Sound far fetched? Maybe, but given that these companies all excel in providing painless user experiences, it's a possibility. "Companies like your Google, Mint, Square and others are coming from more of a true retail environment," says Skari. "They're starting to make inroads into that very important customer segment" of consumers under 30.

    Square COO Keith Rabois supports that assertion -- as least with regards to his company -- claiming that the startup has a 95% chance of one day becoming more valuable than eBay's (EBAY) PayPal and a 50% chance of becoming more culturally relevant.

    "We are not limited to just e-commerce," he said. "We enable real world payments, which is a much bigger market and is more valuable."