英特尔超薄笔记本电脑有戏吗

    几年前苹果（Apple）第一次推出MacBook Air笔记本电脑时，它也遭受了一些抨击：首先它的速度不够快，其次接口不够多，而且价格太高。此外它的外接光驱大得像一块砖头，携带起来十分不便。不过三年以后，苹果于近日推出的新版MacBook Air笔记本电脑已经成了移动计算行业的典范，同时也成了消费者需求的标杆。虽说苹果没有泄露详细数据，不过苹果的一位高管最近对《财富》杂志（Fortune）称，今年早些时候，这款超轻型的MacBook Air笔记本的销量已经超过了白色的MacBook笔记本电脑（苹果最终决定停产白色的Macbook笔记本）。与此同时，高德纳研究公司（Gartner）的报告表明，在过去的五个季度里，苹果在移动计算领域上的总体增长率均超过了PC厂商。

    苹果的咄咄逼人，使用Wiondows系统的PC厂商如何接招？恐怕只能以其人之道还治其人之身。为什么英特尔（Intel）公司会创造出一种所谓的“Ultrabook”超级笔记本电脑的概念，部分原因正在于此。Ultrabook指的是一类全新的超薄型笔记本。并不是每款笔记本都可以叫Ultrabook，它必须配备一系列强悍的硬件：首先它的厚度必须在0.8英寸以下（也就是不到20毫米——译注），重量必须在3.1磅以下（即1.4公斤以下——译注），使用固态闪存，续航时间在5小时以上，而且起价也普遍在1,000美元以上。另外英特尔还斥资3亿美元建立了“英特尔Ultrabook基金”，旨在资助企业研究Ultrabook的软硬件，促进笔记本电池寿命和存储等方面的研发。

    英特尔的Ultrabook旨在刺激PC厂商更加努力地追赶苹果（Apple）。眼下平板电脑已经对笔记本电脑的销量产生了威胁。如果Ultrabook最终取得了成功的话，这将对Windows生态系统的生存和发展产生重大推进作用。（另据报道，苹果公司曾威胁说，如果英特尔公司不在技术上做出更大进步的话，苹果将中断与英特尔的合作。）东芝（Toshiba）、联想（Lenovo）、华硕（Asus）、宏基（Acer）等厂商今年秋天都将先后推出自己的Ultrabook超级笔记本，不过这些厂商也都面临着一些难以克服的困难。

    设计就是一个首当其冲的问题。比如东芝今年11月将推出一款2.5磅重的Portege Z830 Ultrabook，它的外观设计与东芝以往的产品一脉相承。而华硕的产品则由于铝合金边框的侧面线条太像苹果的MacBook Air而招致一些批评。不过外观上的比较是在所难免的。高德纳研究公司的分析师范•贝克表示：“它们的外观的确很像，不过这也是难免的。要保证结构强度，就要用金属外壳。而且它们的厚度要足够薄，因为这是Ultrabook笔记本的硬性要求之一。所以如果你说这是一款全金属外壳、而且很薄的笔记本电脑，那么你会想到什么？你肯定会觉得它长的很像苹果的Macbook Air。”

    贝克也指出，这些产品和MacBook Air之间也存在着很大的差异。首先是操作系统的不同，微软的Windows仍然占据了主要的市场份额。有些审美主义者声称，苹果最出名的就是它的设计，而苹果的设计是很难复制的，比如它的背光式键盘。另外，有些新功能、新特性短期之内也可能不会进入Ultrabook里。另外华硕CEO沈振来自己也对《金融时报》（The Financial Times）承认，由于处理器的散热问题，制造这么一个薄薄的底架，在工艺上也是一个很艰巨的挑战。

    定价也是一个非常重要的问题。从来不会有人认为苹果的产品很“便宜”，不过据说最近苹果Macbook Air 999美元的价格还是让不少PC厂商觉得压力很大，因为他们自身的生产成本变得越来越高了。有分析人士对《财富》表示，Ultrabook要想具有市场竞争力，其定价应在1,000美元以下，最好是在700到750美元之间。不过在今年年内，恐怕很少能有品牌能达到这个理想的定价区间，大多数的Ultrabook的价格可能高达1,000乃至2,000美元。

    英特尔和PC厂商也需要搞一些“认知营销”。英特尔预计到明年年末，Ultrabook将占到全球消费消费性笔记本市场份额的40%，到2013年，这一比例将上升到60%。这一预期对于PC厂商来说是非常激进的，所以有些PC厂商和分析师甚至怀疑这个份额是否实际。比如贝尔就对此持怀疑态度，他说：“消费者对Ultrabook没有任何概念，要想让消费者接受这个概念，进而走进沃尔玛（Wal-Mart）或百思买（Best Buy）去购买Ultrabook，英特尔就必须做出大量营销投资。”

    在推进与自产芯片有关的计算领域上，英特尔的战绩也是有胜有负。2004年，英特尔赞助了一次非常有效的媒体活动，成功宣传了该公司的英特尔迅驰（Centrino）平台的无线互联网移动性。不过英特尔的其它一些活动则收效不佳。比如在2006年，英特尔花费大量财力宣传该公司的“欢跃”（Viiv）技术，英特尔想通过这项技术把PC打造成一个“卧室友好型”的媒体中心。不过Viiv作为一个品牌并没有获得成功，最终悄无声息地淡出了人们的视野，但“媒体型PC”的理念却被继承了下来。

    要想让Ultrabook获得成功，PC厂商也必须全力投入。据台湾IT网站DigiTimes报道，宏基、联想、东芝和华硕四厂商首批推出的Ultrabook笔记本总数可能不足5万台，虽说是投石探路，但石头太小，也不足以让公众的认知产生波澜。其实以华硕为例，它的单月产量便可达到这个数字的四倍，但产能的扩大，意味着企业必须对供应链做出重大投资。而要想让Ultrabook成为笔记本市场的主流，这种投资是不可避免的，否则以英特尔如此宏大的产品版图，Ultrabook可能仍然逃脱不了昙花一现的命运。

    译者：朴成奎

    When Apple launched the MacBook Air, it got flack: not fast enough, not enough ports, too pricey, the optional external optical disc drive had as much portable appeal as a brick. Fast-forward three years, and the current version of the Air has become an industry example of what consumers want in mobile computing. Though Apple won't break down figures, an executive recently told Fortune that the lightweight notebook had been outselling its entry-level white MacBook earlier this year. (That model was ultimately discontinued.) Meanwhile, Gartner research reports Apple's overall growth in the mobile computing space outpaced PC makers -- for the last five quarters.

    So what's a Windows PC maker to do? Fight fire with fire. That's partly why Intel (INTC) created the so-called "ultrabook," a new, svelte notebook category. The new name comes with a checklist of required hardware features attached: a model must be 0.8 inches thick or less, weigh under 3.1 pounds, use a solid-state flash drive, get five-plus hours of battery life in between charges and start at a price of $1,000. The chipset maker also set up the Intel Capital Ultrabook Fund, a $300 million fund for investing in companies working on ultrabook hardware and software, aiming foster technical improvements in battery life and storage for example.

    If successful, Intel's prodding of PC makers to more diligently chase Apple (AAPL) could be a big boost to the Windows ecosystem as the surge in tablets threatens to take a bite out of notebook sales. (Apple reportedly threatened to walk away from Intel if the chip maker didn't make bigger gains in its technology.) But manufacturers like Toshiba, Lenovo, Asus and Acer -- all of which roll out ultrabooks this fall -- have plenty of obstacles that may be difficult to overcome.

    Like design. While Toshiba's upcoming 2.5-pound Portege Z830, due in November, sports a look in line with the company's past products, Asus's offerings have drawn some criticism for looking too much like the Air, right down to the way that sheet of aluminum tapers in the corner. Comparisons in the looks department may be inevitable, though. "They're similar, but it's not hard to be similar," says Van Baker, an analyst with Garter Research. "You need the metal case for the structural strength, and they have to be thin because that's one of the requirements for the ultrabook brand. So when you say it's an all-metal case and thin, well guess what? It's gonna start looking like a MacBook Air."

    Baker also points out the differences remain significant. There's the operating system for one; Microsoft's (MSFT) Windows still dominates in market share. Some of the aesthetic flourishes Apple is best known for may be hard to duplicate, meanwhile, such as backlit keyboards that light up in the dark. Such features may not make their way into ultrabooks for some time, if at all. Manufacturing such a thin chassis is a challenge, too, something Asus' own CEO Jerry Shen told The Financial Times, pointing to possible heat problems due to the processor.

    Pricing will also be extremely important. Apple has never been considered "cheap," but the Air's recent $999 pricing scheme is reportedly a hassle for some PC makers who are dealing with higher production costs. Analysts Fortune spoke to indicate that, for ultrabooks to be competitive in the marketplace, they need to be priced below $1,000 and somewhere in between $700 and $750. This year, there will be few models that hit that sweet spot -- most of them have price tags starting at $1000 and climbing up to $2,000.

    Intel and company will also have to do some savvy marketing. The chipset maker forecast that ultrabooks will own 40% of the global consumer notebook market by the end of next year, and 60% come 2013. That's an extremely aggressive prediction that some PC makers and analysts wonder is realistic. "That's going to take a lot of spend on Intel's part, to take a term that they invented and that consumers aren't aware of and get to the point where they go to a Wal-Mart (WMT) or Best Buy (BBY) and ask for an ultrabook," explains Baker, who remains skeptical.

    Intel also has a mixed track record pushing specific types of computing tied to its chips. In 2004, the company sponsored an effective media campaign extolling the Centrino, which popularized the benefits of wireless Internet mobility. Other campaigns haven't fared so well. In 2006 for instance, Intel marketed Viiv to boost awareness of PCs designed as living room-friendly media centers. Viiv as a brand went nowhere and eventually died quietly, though the idea of the "media PC" lives on.

    PC makers also have to fully commit. According to DigiTimes, Acer, Lenovo, Toshiba and Asustek may produce less than 50,000 units, too conservative to really make a dent in public awareness. And while Asus, for example, is technically capable of producing quadruple that each month, scaling beyond will require substantial investments in the company's supply chain, an investment that will likely be needed to take this category mainstream. Otherwise, the vaunted ultrabook may become just another uneventful blip on Intel's vast, expanding product roadmap.