疑似云泡沫隐现

    人们对泡沫津津乐道，对云计算也是一样。而近来大家喜欢谈论的话题则是潜在的云泡沫。云计算市场是否真的已经开始往这个方向发展？

    目前还没有。至于说近来一些过高的估值（比如SAP收购SuccessFactors）是否合理，现在下结论为时过早。但有一点很清楚，那就是从专属软件向基于云计算软件的转移不能再被说成是一时的风流。咨询公司JMP Securities 分析师帕特里克•瓦尔拉文在最近的一份报告中写道：“我们认为，甲骨文（Oracle）、SAP和IBM等大型软件厂商正将市场份额拱手让给规模较小、增长较快的软件即服务竞争对手，后者正越来越被市场接受。我们认为，这些公司为了阻止市场份额流失、在竞争激烈的软件即服务领域占据更有利地位，目前正把收购视为解决方案。”

    过去短短几个月，甲骨文收购了RightNow科技公司，SAP收购了SuccessFactors，而IBM则收购了DemandTec。大型企业软件厂商终于承认，企业购买技术的方式正在发生改变。他们也终于承认自己没有在云领域竞争的基因，因此他们要收购基于软件即服务模式的小型软件厂商。

    甲骨文尤其热衷于公司收购。随着消费者软件购买方式的转变，该公司面临的压力日益增大。上周二，甲骨文公布了上季度财报，不过并未达到之前的预期。

    投资银行Cowen and Company的高级研究分析师皮特•戈德玛奇在最近一份报告中称：“我们认为原因在于越来越多的客户因为成本压力而取消了（与甲骨文的）维护合同，他们转而购买更现代化的技术，导致甲骨文的所有产品都受到了影响。”

    市场形势的下一步会如何发展？市场上还有大量的潜在收购对象，因为小型云计算公司在销售、分销和部署方面都需要大型企业软件厂商的帮助。所以可以预见未来一段时间，大鱼吃小鱼的收购还会层出不穷。2012年底，我们应该能更清晰地看见哪些公司——无论大小——将成为软件新时代的中流砥柱。我们还能看到押宝云计算公司到底能否获得回报。

    新近整合的专属云计算公司的成功一定程度上将取决于规模较小的云计算公司融入大型企业软件厂商的情况。

    People like to talk about bubbles. And the cloud. And, more recently, a potential cloud bubble. But are we really heading in that direction?

    Not yet. It's too early to tell whether some of the recent inflated valuations (a la SAP's acquisition of SuccessFactors) are justified. What's clear is that the shift from on-premise to cloud-based software can no longer be dismissed as a passing trend. "We believe that larger enterprise software vendors such as Oracle (ORCL), SAP (SAP), and IBM (IBM) have been losing share to their smaller, faster growing SaaS competitors that are increasingly being accepted in the market," JMP Securities analyst Patrick Walravens wrote in a recent report. "Increasingly, we believe these companies are viewing acquisitions as a way to stem market share losses and position themselves better in the competitive SaaS marketplace."

    In the last few months alone, Oracle acquired RightNow Technologies (RNOW), SAP bought SuccessFactors (SFSF) and IBM snapped up DemandTec (DMAN). Large, on-premise enterprise software makers are finally admitting that the way companies buy technology is changing. They're also acknowledging that they don't have the DNA to compete in the cloud, which is why they're acquiring smaller players that have built their business on the software-as-a-service (SaaS) model.

    Oracle in particular has been on a big acquisition spree. And it's also feeling the pressure from the shift in how customers buy software. On Tuesday the company announced its quarterly earnings missed expectations:

    "We believe this is because every product in Oracle's arsenal is under pressure as customers are increasingly canceling maintenance contracts as they look to cut costs and buy more contemporary technology," Peter Goldmacher, a senior research analyst with Cowen and Company, wrote in a recent note.

    So what's next? There are plenty of other acquisitions targets out there, and the smaller cloud players need the larger enterprise vendors to help in sales, distribution and reach. That's why you can expect the feeding frenzy to continue in the coming months. By end of 2012, we should have a better sense of which companies -- small and large -- will become the next big names in this new era of software. We should also have a better sense of whether paying a premium for cloud companies will have paid off.

    The success of these newly consolidated on-premise cloud companies in this space will partly depend on how well smaller cloud players are integrated into large enterprise vendors.