甲骨文业绩不佳 科技业即将入冬？

    甲骨文公司（Oracle）未能达到预期收益，就如同马里亚诺•瑞维拉（美国职棒大联盟洋基队球星-译注）错失了1次救球机会，或鲍勃•迪伦推出了1张令人失望的专辑。这种事情难免发生，而当它发生时，我们唯一真正要问的是：为什么？

    问题的答案不仅对甲骨文股东来说很重要。甲骨文公司长期以来一直被视为一个标杆，用来衡量企业在信息技术方面的支出。如果仅仅是因为甲骨文公司内部的问题而导致盈利不足，这对于甲骨文以外的世界来说无关大碍。但如果甲骨文公司并没有出现太大的失误，那就预示着明年的IT投资可能会放缓。

    那么，到底发生了什么事？这家商用软件巨头在本周早些时候发布的统计数据显示，截至11月30日，过去3个月的收入为88亿美元，与去年同期相比增长了2%，但低于分析人士的预期的92亿美元。同样，非GAAP每股盈利为54美分，比华尔街长期以来所预期的57美分要低。

    甲骨文公司已经至少连续三年实现了预期值——考虑到全球性的经济疲软，这是个了不起的成绩。截至周二收盘，在公布其盈利之前，甲骨文公司过去三年中股价上涨了64%，相比之下，标准普尔500指数的涨幅也只有40%。

    上周三，甲骨文的股价下跌了12%。在过去6个星期中，其股价下跌了近1/4，相当于损失了大约400亿美元。在此期间，标准普尔500指数仅仅下跌了2%。受Oracle的影响，其他软件股也跟着下跌：Salesforce.com周三下跌了5%，SAP下跌了6%，VMware公司则下跌了10%。

    尽管欧洲的金融风暴和过热的亚洲经济导致了人们对2012年新一轮全球经济衰退的担忧，但高科技世界在某种程度上似乎并未受到影响。多数讨论集中于消费科技领域——苹果 (Apple) 和谷歌 (Google) 当前的竞争、亚马逊（Amazon）平板电脑的崛起以及社交游戏公司Zynga首次公开募股的命运。相比之下，企业软件市场没有如此引人注目，坦率地说甚至有点乏善可陈，但仍然和消费科技领域同等重要。

    如果企业缩减IT支出，则可能对所有科技股造成损害。甲骨文股票相对坚挺，以及其一贯超过华尔街的预期的能力给这家公司罩上了安全的光环。这是一个能够挺过困难时期的高科技巨人。如果甲骨文已经感受到了IT开支收紧的寒意，其他软件供应商又当如何呢？

    业界普遍认为，商用软件一定程度上有助于企业人力资源、客户关系等部门的长期运行成本。云计算是甲骨文始终在推动的领域，通过这种技术，可以将存储和维护的职能移交给可以运营大型网络从而从规模经济中受益的公司，以此来降低IT成本。

    Oracle missing its earnings guidance is like Mariano Rivera blowing a save opportunity, or Bob Dylan putting out a disappointing record. It happens, but not very often. And when it does, the only real question is: Why?

    The answer matters beyond the world of Oracle (ORCL) shareholders. Oracle has long been seen as a kind of proxy for corporate spending on information technology. If Oracle's earnings disappointed because of internal problems, that's not such a big deal outside Oracle. If Oracle didn't do much wrong, however, it points to a possible slowdown in IT spending for next year.

    So what happened? The enterprise software giant weighed in earlier this week with revenue of $8.8 billion in the three months ended Nov. 30, up 2% from the same period a year earlier but short of the $9.2 billion analysts were expecting. Similarly, non-GAAP earnings per share came in at 54 cents, below the 57 cents the Street had been looking for.

    Oracle hasn't fallen short of estimates for at least three years -- a feat all the more significant given the weak economy. As of Tuesday's close, before the company posted its earnings, Oracle had gained 64% over the past three years, against a 40% rise in the S&P 500.

    On Wednesday, the stock tumbled 12%. In the past six weeks, the stock has lost nearly a quarter of its value, equal to roughly $40 billion. The S&P 500 is down only 2% in the period. And other software stocks are being dragged down in Oracle's wake: Salesforce.com (CRM) fell 5% Wednesday, SAP (SAP) dropped 6% and VMWare (VMW) slid 10%.

    Even as the financial turmoil in Europe and overheated economies in Asia have raised concerns about another global recession in 2012, the tech world has seemed somewhat immune. Most of the discussion focused on the consumer side of the industry -- the ongoing rivalry between Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG), the rise of Amazon's (AMZN) tablet, the fate of Zynga's (ZNGA) IPO. The enterprise side is much less visible and -- frankly -- a little unglamorous, but just as important as the consumer side.

    And if companies are putting the brakes on IT spending, it could hurt tech stocks across the board. The relative resilience of Oracle's stock and its ability to consistently trump the Street's estimates gave the company an aura of safety. Here was a tech giant that could weather hard times. And if Oracle is feeling a chill in IT spending, what are other software vendors feeling?

    The conventional wisdom is that enterprise software can help companies reduce some long-term operating costs in departments such as human resources and customer relations. Cloud computing, an area that Oracle has been pushing into, can also reduce IT costs by handing over storage and maintenance functions to companies that can run vast networks that benefit from economies of scale.