IPO热潮重现，IT业何去何从

    2010年秋，我曾列出多点理由，阐释为什么尽管关于科技“泡沫”的争论层出不穷，但它们事实上只是一个标志，表明当时的科技行业正处于一轮理性繁荣的周期。大概一年前，我曾经再次谈起过这个话题。

    那么，后来的情形怎么样了？我当时预测的五宗“爆炸性”科技股IPO已有三宗（商务社交网站LinkedIn、团购网站Groupon和社交游戏巨头Zynga）成为现实，最大的一宗（Facebook）也已提交申请，可能会在90天内上市。第二波由风投支持的IPO潮正风起云涌……包括消费者科技公司（点评网站Yelp、互联网内容制造商Demand Media、网络音乐电台Pandora、数据备份公司Carbonite、假日租房网站HomeAway和点评网站Angie's List等）以及B2B公司（企业社交软件开发商Jive Software、互联网视频技术服务公司Brightcove、数据安全解决方案提供商Imperva、电子邮件营销服务商Responsys等）。已提交IPO登记表的公司数量仍在持续增长。

    从互联网泡沫破灭到如今的科技股IPO卷土重来，用了十年多，但在我看来这只是科技股IPO市场回归长期趋势的过程。过去十年，新的监管条例【萨班斯-奥克斯利法案（Sarbanes-Oxley）】、公众投资者结构的变化（对冲基金、高频交易投资者等的影响力上升）以及投资银行注意力的转变都导致了科技股IPO市场的淡静。即使是在2004-2008年初的宏观经济繁荣期（受到各类信贷泡沫——房地产、主权债券、杠杆收购——的推动），科技股IPO也很少见。接着是2008年底至2010年的全球经济危机，科技股IPO回暖的希望就更渺茫了。我印象中当时连软件/互联网初创企业提交S-1都堪称稀罕事，如今差不多每周都有。

    那么，现在应该采取什么行动？这对于那些考虑在中短期内IPO的后期初创企业有何启示？对早期初创企业又有何影响？

    1. 宏观环境仍决定IPO窗口。虽然2011年有几十宗科技股IPO，宏观经济状况仍决定着何时科技公司能成功IPO。资本市场有一定的季节性，也许你还记得2011年社交游戏公司Zynga、团购网站Groupon等公司原本打算在股市交投淡静的夏季结束后于9月份进行IPO定价。但欧债危机就像一辆缓慢倾覆的火车，迅速碾碎了它们的希望。Groupon直到11月份才完成IPO，Zynga则等到了12月份。

    当前宏观经济状况相对平稳。美国经济虽然仍处于弱势复苏状态，但基本面良好，并在持续向好。但欧元危机随时可能再起波澜，中东冲突升级则可能推动油价暴涨，这些威胁依然真实存在。我相信如果从中长期角度看，科技股IPO市场正在逐步正常化，但短期波动仍可能出现。计划上市者必须要有耐心，希望波动只会持续几个月，而不是几年。

    2. 可行的商业模式——上市门槛仍然很高。通常来说，公司（以及他们的投资银行家和当前的风投投资者）只有具备相当规模、可靠的商业模式才会考虑尝试。不同规模、不同知名度的投资银行对此定义可能略有差异，但这通常意味着过去12个月的销售额超过5,000万美元，未来一年的预估销售额接近或超过1亿美元。对于“软件即服务”（SaaS）或其他有经常性营业收入的公司，这些数字可能是根据账面判断，而不是GAAP营收，但概念上它们是类似的。另外，营业收入的增长率也很重要……同样是年营收5,000万美元的两家公司，每年仍在翻番增长的公司将非常具有吸引力，每年增长10-20%的公司上市则会遇到困难。

    In the fall of 2010 I laid out reasons why all the tech "bubble" chatter was really more the hallmark of a reasonably-sustained boom, and then revisited the topic almost one year ago to the day.

    Well what's happened since then? Three of the five "blockbuster" tech IPOs I predicted have happened (LinkedIn, Groupon and Zynga) while the biggest of all (Facebook) has filed and will likely go public within the next 90 days. The secondary wave of VC-backed IPOs has also come to fruition… both consumer facing (Yelp, Demand Media, Pandora, Carbonite, HomeAway, Angie's List, et al) and B2B (Jive Software, Brightcove, Imperva, Responsys, etc). The pipeline of companies in registration has continued to grow.

    It's taken more than a decade since the dotcom bubble bursting, but to me all of this is part of a long-term normalization of the tech IPO market. New regulations (Sarbanes-Oxley), changing dynamics in the public investor landscape (greater influence of hedge funds, HFT, etc) and a shifting focus of investment banks all contributed to the lull too. But even during the macroeconomic boom of 2004 to early 2008 (inflated by various credit bubbles – housing, sovereign debt, LBOs) tech IPOs were extremely rare and then the global economic crisis of late 2008 – 2010 only further dampened hopes for a recovery. I remember when it was a rare, extraordinary thing for a software/internet startup to even file an S-1. Now there are filings virtually every week.

    So now what? What are the implications for other late-stage private companies thinking of making the transition to public markets in the near to midterm future? What's the impact for early-stage startups?

   1. Macro Environment Still Dictates IPO Windows. While 2011 saw dozens of tech IPOs, macroeconomic conditions still dictate when companies can successfully complete an offering. There's some natural seasonality to the capital markets, but if you recall companies like Zynga (ZNGA) and Groupon (GRPN) originally expected to price offerings in September 2011 after the summer lull. But the latest fit in the slow motion train wreck that is the European sovereign debt crisis quickly dashed those hopes. Groupon didn't manage to get out until November and Zynga in December.

    Right now the macro economic conditions are comparatively calm. The U.S. economy is still in a weak recovery mode, but fundamentals are sound and continue to progress. But another flare up of the Euro crisis could happen at any time, or oil shocks prompted by Mideast conflict and escalation are still very real possibilities. While I believe the tech IPO market is normalizing when taking the mid-long term view, short term disruptions are still likely to occur. Would-be issuers may have to be patient, but hopefully only for months and not years.

    2. Viable Businesses – The Bar Remains High. By and large, the only companies (and by extension their bankers and existing VC backers) attempting IPOs are ones that have viable businesses of meaningful scale. Investment banks of varying size and prestige might say slightly different things, but typically it means over $50M in trailing sales and a run rate near or above $100M. For SaaS or other recurring revenue businesses these figures might be on a bookings basis rather than GAAP revenue, but conceptually they're similar. Also top line growth rates matter… a $50M business that's still doubling every year is in a strong position, a $50M business growing 10-20% a year will struggle to get public.