Instagram为什么值10亿美元？

    周一，Facebook公司宣布，将斥资10亿美元收购图片共享服务商Instagram公司。后者公司成立还不到两年时间，目前还没有收入，员工也只有十几名。不过请记住，收购是收购方觉得被收购公司未来有利可图才进行的行为，而不是简单地把当前的收入或利润翻几倍得到收购价格。那么，为什么Instagram值10亿美元呢？

    Facebook是以每个用户30美元的价格收购Instagram的，总金额为10亿美元（公式为：30美元/用户×3300万用户=10亿美元）。而Facebook自身的估值为每个用户价值100美元，或者说总金额为800亿美元（公式为：100美元/用户×8亿用户=800亿美元）。其他流行的社交应用的价值大概是每个用户价值约20美元到50美元不等。只有这个货币化的估值模型继续有效，这次收购的估值才算合情合理。

    如果Facebook上周价值800亿美元，那么收购了Instagram后，它现在就值810亿美元了吗？没错。原因在于：用户在Facebook的网站上做得最多的事情就是分享照片。现在照片分享正在手机上大行其道。而Instagram显然是手机照片分享领域的领头羊。Instagram在安卓系统上开放的第一天，用户数就增加了100万。而Facebook上市后亟需向投资者展示自己独有的增长引擎。Instagram正是这样的增长引擎，而且对Facebook和它的投资者来说，Instagram的价值还远不止10亿美元。

    从Web 2.0到手机应用。几乎所有应用都在走向移动领域。社交应用Path、Instagram和定位社交网站FourSquare都已经完全手机化了，它们对传统网络已毫无兴趣。这种变化标志着另一次重大转变的转折点已经来临，即从Web 2.0发展到移动应用。Facebook拥有最出色的移动应用，同时它需要升级自己的移动服务。Path是设计最精美的移动应用，用户体验无与伦比。Instagram则是最优秀的移动设备照片分享应用。FourSquare是手机定位数据领域的领导者。这三家公司对于任何一家想在移动应用模式转型中占据支配地位的公司来说都可谓至关重要。

    对微软（Microsoft）或Twitter来说，Instagram也值10亿美元吗？可能不值。微软无法像Facebook那样对公司的用户和成长性进行货币化定价。微软并不关注社交媒体或手机上的照片应用。Twitter能从Instagram获得巨大价值，但为此值得花上10亿美元？还是三思而后行吧。而且Twitter通过与Instagram合作就获得大量用户和流量，并不需要直接拥有这家公司。

    对不同的收购方来说，同一家公司的价值差别是很大的。对于Facebook来说，它能按照每个用户100美元的定价来将自己的用户货币化，因此为每个用户花30美元的收购就是划算的买卖。而对另一家潜在的收购方来说就不是这么回事了。这取决于它们的货币化模型，以及它们打算将来如何使用被收购的公司。这就是为什么Instagram对Facebook来说值10亿美元，而美国在线公司（AOL）的专利对微软来说也值10亿美元。对这两家收购方所要实现的目标来说，它们的收购都算是物有所值。

    Don Dodge是谷歌公司（Google）的开发者支持人员，主要职责是帮助开发者在谷歌平台和技术的基础上开发新应用。之前，他曾是微软公司的一名初创公司推广人员。本文最初发表于他的博客。

    译者：清远

    Facebook yesterday announced that it will pay $1 billion to acquire Instagram -- a company that is less than two years old, has no revenue and about a dozen employees. Remember, acquisitions are about what the acquirer can do with the company in the future, not some multiple of revenues or profits today. So why is Instagram worth $1 billion?

    Facebook acquired Instagram for about $30 per user, or $1 billion. ($30/user X 33M users = $1B). Facebook is valued at about $100 per user or $80 billion ($100/user X 800M users = $80Bn). Other popular social apps are valued around $20 to $50 per user. The monetization models need to work out about the same to justify the valuations.

    If Facebook was worth $80 billion last week, is it worth $81 billion now with the addition of Instagram? Yes. Here's why: The number one thing people do on Facebook is share photos. Photos are going mobile in a big way. Instagram is the clear leader in mobile photos. Instagram added one million users in the first day of availability on Android. Facebook needs a growth engine to show investors after they go public. Instagram is that growth engine, and it is worth much more than $1 billion to Facebook and its investors.

    Web2.0 to Mobile. Everything is going mobile. Path, Instagram and FourSquare, are totally mobile, and don't care about the web. This could mark the turning point for another sea change; Web 2.0 to Mobile. Facebook has a horrible mobile app and needs to upgrade its mobile services. Path is the most elegantly designed mobile app, with an awesome user experience. Instagram is the best mobile photo app. FourSquare is the leader in mobile location data. All of them are critical to any company that wants to dominate the mobile paradigm shift.

    Is Instagram worth $1B to Microsoft or Twitter? Probably not. Microsoft (MSFT) couldn't monetize the users and growth in the same way that Facebook can. Microsoft isn't focused on social or mobile photos. Twitter could realize a ton of value from Instagram, but $1 billion? Probably not. Twitter will still get lots of users and traffic from Instagram. They don't need to own it.

    The value of a company is different for different potential acquirers. If Facebook can monetize its users in a way that justifies $100/user, than paying $30 per user for an acquisition is a great deal. For other potential acquirers maybe not. It depends on their monetization model, and what they plan to do with the acquisition in the future. This is why Instagram is worth $1 billion to Facebook, and why AOL (AOL) patents are worth $1B to Microsoft. They both acquired good value for what they want to accomplish.

    Don Dodge is a Developer Advocate at Google helping developers build new applications on Google platforms and technologies. Prior to joining Google Don was a startup evangelist at Microsoft. This post originally appeared on his blog.